Post Corona, will every ship still sail?

[zonacruiser25]

On 4/7/2020 at 9:08 PM, Etta1213 said:

I appreciate all the thoughtful opinions offered here. Am really hoping the ships continue cruising. Personally, I feel more at risk for disease on an airplane than on a ship

This is all to true.  All airline employees are at extreme risk of exposure.  A Miami baggage handler passed away yesterday.  We may all be more at risk going to or from a cruise.  The same is true with crew.  More crew members may feel whatever jobs they can find at home will be better than the risks posed from working on a ship.  So many variables will be in play when things ramp up again.

[TheMastodon]

I think certain ships will resume (fall at the earliest), but many will just be waiting for demand to return.  Sure, cruise dorks or enthusiasts will definitely want to hop on board, but the general public will not.  But who knows?  Is it cheaper for Royal to have a ship sitting around in the ocean with a skeleton crew or a ship that is 1/4 full?   

 

We love cruising (D+) but there is no way we are getting on a ship until this thing has fizzled out completely or there is a vaccine.  Furthermore, there shouldn't be cruises again until there is a vaccine.   Someone gets on a ship perfectly healthy and 4 days into the trip they get sick and test positive - they have already exposed who knows how many people - and then they all spread it and here we go again.  You can't throw enough soap/hand sanitizer to try to band aide something like this.   I've said it once and i'll say it again - I cannot believe people were getting on ships in Feb/March.  

 

 

[leisuretraveler223]

Everybody here talks like they understand epidemiology and infectious disease mechanisms.  Most of you don't.

[trajan]

6 hours ago, JAMESCC said:

Woo hoo, here is to pessimism! Alright, good for you. 

Everyone forget it, this industry is dead. Carnival, Royal, NCL are out of business. The ships will be sunk to the bottom of the ocean to be a an artificial reef. I don't time for people like you. I truly don't. 

People like me? You mean investment analysts, health care researchers, port authorities, people developing the government policies, etc? All the evidence driven people who are coming to similar conclusions? And yes, I am in one of those groups.

I was accused of being a pessimist,  extremist and alarmist a month ago when 

I said cruising and theme parks would need to shut down. No big deal. I’m used to it now.

I love cruising but it’s done for a long time. Apart from the pr debacle, no us county is going to struggle thru mitigation efforts only to let a cruise ship unload and potentially blow it all up. And it’s gonna be that way until there is either a vaccine available or herd immunity. And neither is likely to happen this year.

Being an optimist or pessimist does not change the data.

[Hobby3333]

1 minute ago, leisuretraveler223 said:

Everybody here talks like they understand epidemiology and infectious disease mechanisms.  Most of you don't.

Heck, I can’t even spell epidemiology much less understand it.  That is why I depend on doctors and scientists to help me make the best decision for me and my family.  I don’t live in fear but I respect COVID19.  That is why I will make an educated decision not to cruise until the doctors and scientists inform me that it is safe.  Not until then regardless the price of the cruise or how much OBC.  I believe that this virus will come back in at least two waves.  

[Biker19]

3 minutes ago, trajan said:

Being an optimist or pessimist does not change the data.

That same data seems to suggest, to this point, that much more mild restrictions on people, like in Sweden, doesn't have a sizable increase in the curve, it could very well speed herd immunity and have a much lesser impact on entire economies.

[EscapeFromConnecticut]

16 minutes ago, trajan said:

People like me? You mean investment analysts, health care researchers, port authorities, people developing the government policies, etc? All the evidence driven people who are coming to similar conclusions? And yes, I am in one of those groups.

I was accused of being a pessimist,  extremist and alarmist a month ago when 

I said cruising and theme parks would need to shut down. No big deal. I’m used to it now.

I love cruising but it’s done for a long time. Apart from the pr debacle, no us county is going to struggle thru mitigation efforts only to let a cruise ship unload and potentially blow it all up. And it’s gonna be that way until there is either a vaccine available or herd immunity. And neither is likely to happen this year.

Being an optimist or pessimist does not change the data.

Trajan - exceptionally good post.

 

The fact is, CC folders from February will show a bunch of people repeating the Hannity/Limbaugh lines: "It's just the alarmist media," "this is just the sniffles and will be over by April," and the predictable "fake news!!"

 

These were largely the same people proclaiming "I wouldn't even think of canceling - hey, I'm not afraid of some virus."

 

Weeks later, they blamed ports and cities for not welcoming boatloads of infected passengers and crew ... they furiously insisted that airliners spread the virus more than jets ... they confidently predicted this would have almost no effect on cruise companies long term.  (One infamously "optimistic" thread encouraged everyone to load up on CCL stock if the price slipped below $40)

 

Fact: There's simply no "optimism" in any deliberate denial of painful truth. 
 

Personally:

 

I wish cruising could remain viable for the mass market. But the companies can't return to the economic model they've used ...  so I anticipate cutbacks, fare increases, industry consolidation and a bunch of ships mothballed or scrapped.

I wish all front-line workers at all of the cruise lines would keep their jobs. But given the above, I anticipate bad news for tens of thousands of them.

 

I wish the virus had never started and had never spread. But reality is about facts - not feelings.

Edited April 9, 2020 by EscapeFromConnecticut

[Milwaukee Eight]

23 minutes ago, leisuretraveler223 said:

Everybody here talks like they understand epidemiology and infectious disease mechanisms.  Most of you don't.

Almost everyone on CC is an Expert.  
 

In my opinion 

[trajan]

3 minutes ago, Biker19 said:

That same data seems to suggest, to this point, that much more mild restrictions on people, like in Sweden, doesn't have a sizable increase in the curve, it could very well speed herd immunity and have a much lesser impact on entire economies.

Except the progression in the us does not support that. Right now Covid-19 is the leading cause of daily deaths in the us.

And it’s increasing and that’s with mitigation.
 

Why would the us be so different from Sweden? Too early to tell but demographics, travel patterns, Sweden’s been lucky? Doesn’t change what’s happening in the us.

[Hoopster95]

11 minutes ago, EscapeFromConnecticut said:

 

I wish cruising could remain viable for the mass market. But the companies can't return to the economic model they've used ...  so I anticipate cutbacks, fare increases, industry consolidation and a bunch of ships mothballed or scrapped.

 

Great points... to add to this, minimum 1/2 of the cruisers on an Oasis Class ship for example would be 2500 passengers. Is this even economically feasible for the cruise line to run?

 

As far as fare increases go, everything discussed in the ramp up model (more & extra cabin disinfection daily, no more self serve at buffets, etc etc) cost labor dollars.... who's going to pay for that? I feel that the smaller "luxury" cruise brands or way ahead of the game with this, much better pass-worker ratio, excellent space ratio per cruiser already, easy to maintain some kind of social distancing. And if you increase the per diem on Royal where it reaches or surpasses a luxury cruise line (was getting pretty close already), why not sail in a Ferrari rather than settle for a Chevy at the same price?

[Hoopster95]

9 minutes ago, trajan said:

Why would the us be so different from Sweden? Too early to tell but demographics, travel patterns, Sweden’s been lucky? Doesn’t change what’s happening in the us.

 

Even a better example, why have we succeeded so well in Canada vs. the US? 

 

33 minutes ago, trajan said:

Apart from the pr debacle, no us county is going to struggle thru mitigation efforts only to let a cruise ship unload and potentially blow it all up.

 

Great posts, including your latest one. I still cannot understand how RCL or any line can even think about  a "soft start-up" by July for example (as John&LaLa pointed out with Casino Royale offers) without having some kind of security and guarantee that every single one of the 3000 (or whatever number) passengers are virus free. How are they going to do that? And if they don't, what will be the government, local authority, media and public reaction to those on board as well as to the cruise companies themselves? Not only that, what about those cruiser's travel insurance? Not only that, how are cruisers other than those driving going to be able to get to the port via flights? Not only that....etc etc etc another 25 "not only that's"....

I just don't see a soft-opening happening whatsoever without a bright light of a vaccine/test/something that is proven 100% to be viable in confirming travelers are safe.

[zekekelso]

2 minutes ago, Hoopster95 said:

Even a better example, why have we succeeded so well in Canada vs. the US?

 

Maybe the virus can’t tolerate politeness 

[trajan]

17 minutes ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

Almost everyone on CC is an Expert.  
 

In my opinion 

Everyone is usually an expert on something and this virus is intersecting with just about everything. So I’m seeing a lot of people who are getting educated on it. Which is good. That helps.

 

[Milwaukee Eight]

5 minutes ago, Hoopster95 said:

a "soft start-up" by July for example (as John&LaLa pointed out with Casino Royale offers) without having some kind of security and guarantee that every single one of the 3000 (or whatever number) passengers are virus free.

Not sure the Casino offer is a good measuring stick but great observations by you and John. There is no financial impact to those offers if cancelled. 

[lr657]

A physician who was involved in treating coronavirus was interviewed on the news this morning. He explained that the current data and charts that are being used are based on the current coronavirus mitigation's in place. He said that if the measures are relaxed too soon, the data will drastically change for the worse. This makes a lot of sense to me and shows that leisure travel and cruising should not be allowed to begin until proper safety measures are developed and put into effect. 

[Biker19]

7 minutes ago, lr657 said:

He said that if the measures are relaxed too soon, the data will drastically change for the worse.

The numbers from Sweden may suggest otherwise.

[trajan]

7 minutes ago, Hoopster95 said:

 

Even a better example, why have we succeeded so well in Canada vs. the US? 

 

Ty for the kind words.

 

I can guess. It’s not a secret.

1. Canada has uhc. US does not. UHC is far from perfect but it’s ideally suited to dealing with a pandemic. US is seeing a much higher death rate in poor and minority communities. Lack of affordable and easy access basic health care is one probable reason.

2. Health demographics. US has a comparatively much higher rate of persons with underlying health conditions.

3. Test, trace and contain has been constant and universal in Canada for months. Public health officers do it for every case.

It’s mind boggling how it has been handled in the US. Example, Jeffrey Ghazarian visited Disney World and a conference start of March. He developed symptoms in Orlando and flew home to California symptomatic. Went to hospital, diagnosed with pneumonia and was not tested for almost two weeks. He died a few days later and Disney remained open a couple more days. FL state health officers said it was a California issue. No test till it was too late, no tracing, no containment.

At roughly the same time he was infected I conducted street enforcement outside a convention in Vancouver. I went inside a couple times to use the facilities. A public health officer id’d an attendee who was diagnosed with the virus, documented transmission at the conference and there was a public warning. Me and fellow officers quarantined for 14 days.

That seems to be the big difference.

And again some of it comes down to luck.

[John&LaLa]

2 hours ago, bouhunter said:

Exactly.  They're probably hoping people book those free cruises so when they cancel the offer for those individuals is gone.

 

Sure, but no loss to those who booked.

Port fees are collected, but those get refunded.

 

Hopefully😉

[John&LaLa]

1 hour ago, TheMastodon said:

I've said it once and i'll say it again - I cannot believe people were getting on ships in Feb/March.  

 

 

Had a grand time😇

[TheMastodon]

2 minutes ago, John&LaLa said:

 

Had a grand time😇

Hope you enjoyed it because it’s going to be a while before you get back on.  

[boatseller]

12 hours ago, trajan said:

heh You sound like the Disney fans who are talking up how they are going to the parks in June or August and are worried about how crowded they will be.

 

Not RC but to raise cash to cover the next 6 months Carnival just sold debt promising a 12.5% return.

Yes, I would like to be back in the parks as soon as they open to enjoy the lower than regular crowds.  I have passes to all Florida parks for a reason.

So...finance is a smidgen more complicated then just an interest rates.  While 12.5% might seem high, that actually depends on a number of terms Carnival is unlikely to publish.  Cruising has high operating costs...they're not exactly 'operating' right now. 

[John&LaLa]

30 minutes ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

Not sure the Casino offer is a good measuring stick but great observations by you and John. There is no financial impact to those offers if cancelled. 

 

I shared the casino offer merely as an example of Royals Plan B.  Heck, it might be C or D by now. Works out to a $100 deposit that is refunded. 😉

[John&LaLa]

3 minutes ago, TheMastodon said:

Hope you enjoyed it because it’s going to be a while before you get back on.  

 

Honestly no hurry. If Odyssey cancels in November, I'm sure I'll get by

[boatseller]

18 minutes ago, trajan said:

I can guess. It’s not a secret.

1. Canada has uhc. US does not. UHC is far from perfect but it’s ideally suited to dealing with a pandemic. US is seeing a much higher death rate in poor and minority communities. Lack of affordable and easy access basic health care is one probable reason.

2. Health demographics. US has a comparatively much higher rate of persons with underlying health conditions.

3. Test, trace and contain has been constant and universal in Canada for months. Public health officers do it for every case.

It’s mind boggling how it has been handled in the US. Example, Jeffrey Ghazarian visited Disney World and a conference start of March. He developed symptoms in Orlando and flew home to California symptomatic. Went to hospital, diagnosed with pneumonia and was not tested for almost two weeks. He died a few days later and Disney remained open a couple more days. FL state health officers said it was a California issue. No test till it was too late, no tracing, no containment.

At roughly the same time he was infected I conducted street enforcement outside a convention in Vancouver. I went inside a couple times to use the facilities. A public health officer id’d an attendee who was diagnosed with the virus, documented transmission at the conference and there was a public warning. Me and fellow officers quarantined for 14 days.

That seems to be the big difference.

And again some of it comes down to luck.

1. Irrelevant.  Europe.

2. This can be and adjustment, sure.

3. Perhaps, easy to do with a comparably small population.  Density is also a factor.  The US has handled this very well...Europe.

[Milwaukee Eight]

10 minutes ago, John&LaLa said:

 

Had a grand time😇

You were lucky. What if timing was off by a few day?

 

Glad your home safe and out of quarantine.