Post Corona, will every ship still sail?

[JAMESCC]

1 minute ago, Ocean Boy said:

There are a lot of displaced cruisers from this year that are contrubuting to those increased bookings for next year. I certainly think the cruise lines will have a renewed appreciation for its repeat customers who love cruising as the new supy may not be quite so plentiful ealecially at the pricing that the lines are attempting to get.

It was a mix of re-bookings and brand new bookings. Even if its with FCC's that is still good news. It means people aren't taking there money out but using it for cruises down the line. Cruise ships full means business for the cruise ships. Read my other post please. 

[danv3]

1 minute ago, JAMESCC said:

There is a travel agency CEO that I follow on You Tube that said the last 2 weeks have been the biggest booking weeks of his entire career. He has been doing this for 15 years I believe, He said its a mix of re-booking and brand new bookings. The pessimism here just unreal. I would have thought this entire virus began, started and one spread because of cruise ship if I listen to people on here. 

Interesting.

For what it's worth, I think this board skews dramatically too optimistic.  

[JAMESCC]

Just now, danv3 said:

Interesting.

For what it's worth, I think this board skews dramatically too optimistic.  

And I think lately it skews too pessimistic. There are people on here saying the industry is completely dead and gone. I wish I could give you the travel CEO's You Tube channel but its against the rules here. When he said a few weeks ago that the last few weeks were the biggest booking weeks of his entire career my jaw hit the ground. When he said it was a mix of FCC and new bookings I was floored. 

[Ocean Boy]

2 minutes ago, JAMESCC said:

There is a travel agency CEO that I follow on You Tube that said the last 2 weeks have been the biggest booking weeks of his entire career. He has been doing this for 15 years I believe, He said its a mix of re-booking and brand new bookings. The pessimism here just unreal. I would have thought this entire virus began, started and one spread because of cruise ship if I listen to people on here. 

It is not pessimism. The problem is mutifactorial. People are out of work. When they finally get back to work a vacation will not be foremost on their minds. When they do start thinking about vacations the images of people being quarantined for weeks on ships will not fade fast. And now the media playing up the deaths on ships and countries denying entry if ships is not going to help the image.

[Ocean Boy]

9 minutes ago, JAMESCC said:

. Read my other post please. 

I have read your posts though we are a bit out of synch with this quick flurry of new posts.

 

As I stated previously, people who know me know that I am a big cruiser. Their reaction when they find out that I intend to continue is far from positive.

[JAMESCC]

4 minutes ago, Ocean Boy said:

I have read your posts though we are a bit out of synch with this quick flurry of new posts.

 

As I stated previously, people who know me know that I am a big cruiser. Their reaction when they find out that I intend to continue is far from positive.

Ok, small sample size. I guess we will all see. I'm not saying everything is rosy here. Its gonna take a while to clear all this up. The cruise lines, Royal Caribbean in particular will take time to get past all this. If they begin sailing in a few months, they stay afloat, no pun intended and in a year there is a vaccine things will get better and better. The good news is for cruise nuts like us we will probably get better deals for a while. On the other hand have you seen the prices for 2021? Not exactly low. That also tells me demand is still high for after this. I know I'm going in Sept. and looking fir 2021. Still will have 400-500 in FCC left over.

[Ocean Boy]

16 minutes ago, JAMESCC said:

Ok, small sample size. I guess we will all see. I'm not saying everything is rosy here. Its gonna take a while to clear all this up. The cruise lines, Royal Caribbean in particular will take time to get past all this. If they begin sailing in a few months, they stay afloat, no pun intended and in a year there is a vaccine things will get better and better. The good news is for cruise nuts like us we will probably get better deals for a while. On the other hand have you seen the prices for 2021? Not exactly low. That also tells me demand is still high for after this. I know I'm going in Sept. and looking fir 2021. Still will have 400-500 in FCC left over.

2021 pricing is crazy. RCI needs to chew up that 125% FCC and hope to get a few extra dollars beyond that from all of these displaced cruisers. I posted, I think on another tread, for my Jan 2021 cruise on Oasis the drink package is going for $84.00 per day plus grats. It is just about $100 per day. That is $1400 for two people on a seven day cruise.... they are out of their "F" ing minds.

[island lady]

38 minutes ago, Ocean Boy said:

I have read your posts though we are a bit out of synch with this quick flurry of new posts.

 

As I stated previously, people who know me know that I am a big cruiser. Their reaction when they find out that I intend to continue is far from positive.

 

But not alone in your thoughts and hopes.  😉 

[JAMESCC]

14 minutes ago, Ocean Boy said:

2021 pricing is crazy. RCI needs to chew up that 125% FCC and hope to get a few extra dollars beyond that from all of these displaced cruisers. I posted, I think on another tread, for my Jan 2021 cruise on Oasis the drink package is going for $84.00 per day plus grats. It is just about $100 per day. That is $1400 for two people on a seven day cruise.... they are out of their "F" ing minds.

Ah now we are back to the discussions we used to have on these boards. "Is Royal nuts with these prices"! Oh how I didn't know how much I would miss the entire board full of those threads. 🤣

[rolloman]

Two things which would help the cruise industry get back in business: a vaccine, or an anti-body test.  For an example, just like you would need a passport to check in, you would also need to produce a record of an anti-body test showing you are immune or a record of vaccination. From a business standpoint, I personally do not see how the current fleet of ships will be fully operational for at least the next couple years. 

[JAMESCC]

23 minutes ago, rolloman said:

Two things which would help the cruise industry get back in business: a vaccine, or an anti-body test.  For an example, just like you would need a passport to check in, you would also need to produce a record of an anti-body test showing you are immune or a record of vaccination. From a business standpoint, I personally do not see how the current fleet of ships will be fully operational for at least the next couple years. 

If they can't sail for "a couple of years" then cruising is finished forever. These companies will all be out of business. I'm not arguing, just saying if this is the scenario then we all have to find a different way to vacation because this one will be gone for good. 

[ARandomTraveler]

6 hours ago, Ocean Boy said:

2021 pricing is crazy. RCI needs to chew up that 125% FCC and hope to get a few extra dollars beyond that from all of these displaced cruisers. I posted, I think on another tread, for my Jan 2021 cruise on Oasis the drink package is going for $84.00 per day plus grats. It is just about $100 per day. That is $1400 for two people on a seven day cruise.... they are out of their "F" ing minds.

Completely nuts! The refreshment package has gone from a “sale” price of $18 to a “sale” price of $28. 

[rolloman]

18 minutes ago, JAMESCC said:

If they can't sail for "a couple of years" then cruising is finished forever. These companies will all be out of business. I'm not arguing, just saying if this is the scenario then we all have to find a different way to vacation because this one will be gone for good. 

I said "fully operational" as in every ship Royal owns. If they can come out with the anti-body test I am sure cruising may resume in a few months albeit with a smaller fleet. 

[rolloman]

2 minutes ago, ARandomTraveler said:

Completely nuts! The refreshment package has gone from a “sale” price of $18 to a “sale” price of $28. 

Right now the prices really do not matter. Once they begin sailing and have half empty ships.....everything will be drastically reduced.

[JAMESCC]

1 minute ago, rolloman said:

I said "fully operational" as in every ship Royal owns. If they can come out with the anti-body test I am sure cruising may resume in a few months albeit with a smaller fleet. 

Ok, I agree that the entire fleet won't be fully operational. I agree with that. These lines all have to do the best they can to literally stay afloat till there is a very concrete treatment or vaccine so I guess we are on the same page.

[Ocean Boy]

10 minutes ago, rolloman said:

Right now the prices really do not matter. Once they begin sailing and have half empty ships.....everything will be drastically reduced.

Well, actually prices do matter. If RCI is in need of cash now then they need to entice people to drop some cash now. I have had my Jan. cruise booked for awhile. The price is higher now than when I booked. If I did not already have the booking I would not bite at the present price, not even hoping that it would drop before final payment. And I most certainly am not going to drop $1400 on a drink package figuring I can just cancel and buy at a lower price if it happens to drop. What RCI should be doing is offering the drink package at a price that makes me want to put some money into their bank account nine months before I would even be touching a drop of their alcohol.

[ARandomTraveler]

1 minute ago, Ocean Boy said:

Well, actually prices do matter. If RCI is in need of cash now then they need to entice people to drop some cash now. I have had my Jan. cruise booked for awhile. The price is higher now than when I booked. If I did not already have the booking I would not bite at the present price, not even hoping that it would drop before final payment. And I most certainly am not going to drop $1400 on a drink package figuring I can just cancel and buy at a lower price if it happens to drop. What RCI should be doing is offering the drink package at a price that makes me want to put some money into their bank account nine months before I would even be touching a drop of their alcohol.

Yup

[Georgia_Peaches]

My guess is there will be a phase in that will start with the smaller ships and will graduate toward the larger ones.

[Ocean Boy]

36 minutes ago, Georgia_Peaches said:

My guess is there will be a phase in that will start with the smaller ships and will graduate toward the larger ones.

Doubt it. Starting with smaller ships means having to refund a lot more people who are booked on the larger ships. It makes more sense to cancel 2-3 Radiance class sailings than one Oasis class sailing. Less refunds that way and less payroll for the marine side of the staff. And if ports of call are scarce it is probably more attractive for families with kids, who tend to cruise during the summer, to be on an Oasis class ship rather than a smaller ship.

[Georgia_Peaches]

4 minutes ago, Ocean Boy said:

Doubt it. Starting with smaller ships means having to refund a lot more people who are booked on the larger ships. It makes more sense to cancel 2-3 Radiance class sailings than one Oasis class sailing. Less refunds that way and less payroll for the marine side of the staff. And if ports of call are scarce it is probably more attractive for families with kids, who tend to cruise during the summer, to be on an Oasis class ship rather than a smaller ship.

That's certainly one way to look at it.  Admittedly, my expertise lies mainly as a passenger...SO glad I'm not the one who has to figure this out. 🙂

[Fun2snorkel]

Another thought on all the ships sailing again. How are they going to get the crew back, quarantine them for 14 or more days and test all again?  And I wonder what percentage of the crew will say - never again?

[suzyluvs2cruise]

10 hours ago, Ocean Boy said:

2021 pricing is crazy. RCI needs to chew up that 125% FCC and hope to get a few extra dollars beyond that from all of these displaced cruisers. I posted, I think on another tread, for my Jan 2021 cruise on Oasis the drink package is going for $84.00 per day plus grats. It is just about $100 per day. That is $1400 for two people on a seven day cruise.... they are out of their "F" ing minds.

 

I just checked my upcoming cruises. Drink package pricing was $51/day for b2b Radiance Sept '20, $53/day Odyssey Dec '20, $81/day Symphony Feb '21 and $63/day for b2b Ovation. Crazy!

 

Edited April 7, 2020 by suzyluvs2cruise

[mugtech]

2 hours ago, Fun2snorkel said:

Another thought on all the ships sailing again. How are they going to get the crew back, quarantine them for 14 or more days and test all again?  And I wonder what percentage of the crew will say - never again?

I am sure the reality of being back home with no income is hitting home here in the Philippines.  Many here are hand to mouth in good times, are currently in great hotels along Manila Bay being quarantined.  People here would love to get paid to be quarantined.

[molsonschooner]

6 hours ago, ARandomTraveler said:

Completely nuts! The refreshment package has gone from a “sale” price of $18 to a “sale” price of $28. 

$28 US is a fairly common price for the refreshment package. That is what it was for my just cancelled May cruise on Oasis

 

[Paulette3028]

Of course no one really knows how this will flush out.  I believe, based on nothing but myself and my husband, that we will SAIL again.  When I say that, what that means first and foremost that I am not fearful of cruising.

 

Keeping in mind that EVERY COUNTRY has been affected by this, the ports will have to be 'opened' and virus free for ships to sail to them.  

 

This in itself is going to be a difficult task.  Sanitizing the ships will seem like a simple task.  Will there be changes on how things are handled on ships, I would expect so.

 

But ask yourself....will you feel safe and expect to cruise without worrying about being sick.   If you say YES, then YOU will be some of those people that will enable the cruise industry to rebound.  The cruise lines won't be able to do it, without US.