SS/RCCL Finances: Improving, Options, Questions??!!

[Stumblefoot]

4 hours ago, TLCOhio said:

Any guesses or speculation?

Sell the news, Terry.

[TLCOhio]

3 hours ago, CruiserFromMaine said:

There was news from Secretary Yellen that rates might rise to keep the economy from overheating as it comes out of covid shutdown. Since the cruise lines are debt heavy, that probably had an negative effect on their stock price. 

 

Giving the credit to the Treasury Secretary and the threat of higher interest rates seems logical.  The below story backs up that theory.  

 

From MSN News and this Wall Street financial website, they had this headline: “Why Carnival, Royal Caribbean, and Norwegian Cruise Line Stocks Got Torpedoed Today” with these highlights: “Cruise stocks were definitely taking on water Tuesday afternoon.  During an appearance this morning at an economic seminar presented by The Atlantic magazine, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said, 'It may be that interest rates will have to rise somewhat to make sure that our economy doesn't overheat.'  And while logically, the 'it maybe' part of that statement implies that Yellen hasn't made up her mind about the need to hike rates, investors today are skipping right past that preamble, focusing on the 'interest rates will have to rise' part instead.  Of course, the broader S&P 500 is down only about 1.1% in response to the Treasury secretary's comments. So why are cruise stocks in particular suffering losses three and four and five times as bad?  According to the latest data from S&P Global Market Intelligence, the debt loads of all three of the big publicly traded cruise lines have exploded as they gathered up cash to tide them over through the pandemic. From the end of 2019 through the most recent quarter, Carnival Corporation's long-term debt load has nearly tripled in size, to $26.5 billion. Smaller Royal Caribbean's debt load is up 150% at $20.7 billion, and even Norwegian Cruise Line has needed to double up on debt, which now stands at $11.7 billion.  Granted, all three companies have some cash to offset the gross size of their debt loads -- but they're burning through it at a frenetic pace. And when the cash is gone, the debt will remain, and need to be paid back, with interest.  That's what investors are scared of today. Because like Yellen said (at least in part), 'interest rates will have to rise.' ”

 

Full story at:

https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/04/why-carnival-royal-caribbean-and-norwegian-cruise/

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Norway Coast/Fjords/Arctic Circle cruise from Copenhagen, July 2010, to the top of Europe. Scenic visuals with key tips. Live/blog at 241,851 views.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1227923

 

This Wall Street Journal chart shows how significantly that the RCL stock dropped today.:

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[TLCOhio]

This morning, those "experts" on Wall Street continued their downward ratings/values for Royal Caribbean and the other two major cruise lines.  Why?  Not totally clear and certain.  

 

From this web stock market reporting sources this morning, they had this headline: “What Is Royal Caribbean Going to Do With $5.1 Billion in Cash?" with this sub-headline: "It's a lot of money, but the cruise line has a lot of bills, too.”

 

Here are some of the highlights from this analysis: “The U.S. Centers for Disease Control's decision to allow cruise ships to resume sailing by mid-July comes at just the right time for Royal Caribbean.  It can only survive so long producing billion-dollar losses quarter after quarter. The real benefit, though, is that the resumption of voyages comes as Royal Caribbean has accumulated a large stash of cash. With $5.1 billion in the bank (but $20.7 billion in debt to go with it), the cruise ship owner looks like it has the financial means available to finish riding out this storm.  Looking further out into the first half of 2022, advanced bookings are running within historical ranges, but at prices higher than they were in 2019. Underscoring the strong latent demand for cruises that still exists, Royal Caribbean says it was able to achieve this without having to expend much in the way of marketing.  That's why its cash horde is so important. Obviously, it didn't amass that amount without cost. As noted, Royal Caribbean took on a substantial amount of debt to reach that level, a total of $12.3 billion since March 2020.  So where is Royal Caribbean going to spend its billions? Just keeping its ships in port costs money, and it estimated its cash burn rate was running between $250 million and $290 million a month.  Now that it's going back to sailing -- and had begun preparations for sailing from international ports before the CDC granted permission to sail out of U.S. ports -- the costs don't go away, but actually rise.”

 

This thread is now over 30,000 views.  Appreciate all who have dropped by, made comments, added their information/perspective, etc.  Keep it coming!!

 

Full story at:

https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/03/what-is-royal-caribbean-going-to-do-with-51-billio/

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Sydney to NZ/Auckland Adventure, live/blog 2014 sampling/details with many exciting visuals and key highlights.  On page 23, post #571, see a complete index for all of the pictures, postings.  Now at 233,270 views.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1974139

 

From the Wall Street Journal this morning a littler after 10 am, this chart shows how the RCL stock continues to slide downward.  What does it mean long-term?:

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Edited May 6, 2021 by TLCOhio

[TLCOhio]

Below are the stock charts rom the three major cruise line during this past week.  Progress?  Any clear trends??  Still waiting for specific and  understandable rules from the CDC?

 

From the FOX business news anchor Neil Cavuto yesterday, they did a lengthy, live interview with cruise executive Frank Del Rio. Here is their summary headline: “Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings CEO: CDC guidelines for cruises are ‘stupid’ ” with this key highlights: “the CDC is ‘trying to prevent’ people from cruising and he’s ‘had it’ with their guidelines.”  As mentioned, Del Rio is not shy or subtle. View it and make your own judgement. Del Rio says the CDC will be requiring, even with all passenger on the ship having received vaccine, to be putting their masks back on after every single bite of food or/or each sip of a beverage.  Masks on and off constantly!!??  Plus, when outdoors when sunbathing by the pool, you must wear masks.    Del Rio views this as totally unfair compared to how all other transportation and entertainment venues are being treated by the CDC.  In this interview, Del Rio was very combative and openly attacking the CDC. Is Del Rio correct and/or unfair with his comments and frustration?

 

View full video/interview at:

https://video.foxnews.com/v/6253235741001#sp=show-clips

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Venice: Loving It & Why??!!  Is one of your future desires or past favorites? See these many visual samples for its great history and architecture.  This posting is now at 90,401 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1278226

 

From the Wall Street Journal, this chart shows how the three cruise stock moved during this past week.  Friday was an "UP" day compared to earlier in the week.:

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[Randyk47]

Since we’re far from even considering booking a cruise I haven’t been paying that much attention to the details of CDC’s guidance and recommendations.   I find the notion one would have continually take a mask off and back on during bites of a meal or sips of a drink totally ludicrous.  I had wondered about wearing a mask in public areas like around the pool so not totally surprised about wearing one while sun bathing but thinking about it it sounds a bit too much.   I don’t know if the CDC is continually moving the goal posts just to frustrate the cruise lines or if they are truly “feeling their way in the dark” and trying to come up with safe procedures.  Either way I understand Del Rio’s frustration.

[TLCOhio]

On 5/8/2021 at 8:51 PM, Randyk47 said:

I find the notion one would have continually take a mask off and back on during bites of a meal or sips of a drink totally ludicrous.  I had wondered about wearing a mask in public areas like around the pool so not totally surprised about wearing one while sun bathing but thinking about it it sounds a bit too much.   I don’t know if the CDC is continually moving the goal posts just to frustrate the cruise lines or if they are truly “feeling their way in the dark” and trying to come up with safe procedures.  Either way I understand Del Rio’s frustration.

 

As always, great above wisdom, comments and follow-up from Randy.  

 

It is only mid-week, but as the chart below shows, it has been a super "WILD" period on Wall Street as to how they rate and value Royal Caribbean and the other major cruise lines.  

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Amazon River-Caribbean 2015 adventure live/blog starting in Barbados. Many visuals from this amazing river and Caribbean Islands (Dutch ABC's, St. Barts, Dominica, Grenada, San Juan, etc.).  Now at 68,369 views:

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2157696

 

From the Wall Street Journal, this chart shows how the RCL cruise stock has moved during this five past business trading days.  Is this crazy movement?  And, what does it all mean, longer-term?:

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[cruiseej]

On 5/8/2021 at 8:51 PM, Randyk47 said:

I find the notion one would have continually take a mask off and back on during bites of a meal or sips of a drink totally ludicrous.

 

And the CDC agreed and has now changed their rules: "Cruise ship operators, at their discretion, may advise passengers and crew that — if they are fully vaccinated — they may gather or conduct activities outdoors, including engaging in extended meal service or beverage consumption, without wearing a mask except in crowded settings." So cross that worry off your list. 😉

[TLCOhio]

On 5/13/2021 at 10:45 AM, cruiseej said:

And the CDC agreed and has now changed their rules: "Cruise ship operators, at their discretion, may advise passengers and crew that — if they are fully vaccinated — they may gather or conduct activities outdoors, including engaging in extended meal service or beverage consumption, without wearing a mask except in crowded settings." So cross that worry off your list. 😉

 

 

YES!  The CDC and parts of the Federal government has "shifted gears" and seems to be moving ahead.  Maybe?  Hopefully!!  

 

Sorry for being slow to respond.  Monday morning, my wife had knee replacement surgery and I have been attempting at the role of "Fetch Boy" in taking care of her needs, keeping the ice machine serviced, etc., etc.  Fortunately, it was surgery at 7:45 am Monday, talking with the doctor at 9 am and then having her home by 7 pm that day.  BUT, such knee surgery takes time for rest, re-hab, recovery, etc.  PT started within three hours after the surgery   All going reasonably well. But, time and patience is required!!  Three years ago, my knee had that same replacement surgery on May 23, 2018, by the same doctor and we were able to do a long and excellent Athens to Dubai cruise adventure that following November with all working well for Israel, Egypt, Jordan, Oman, etc.  (PS: Glad we were able to do Jerusalem, etc., at that time rather than attempting it now and during the coming weeks.)

 

Here iw what I posted on another thread:  My reactions to the major CDC announcement yesterday?  Good, but still "MIXED" and a range of uncertainty.  Even with the news conferences yesterday by the President and CDC to open things back up, eight different Governors said "NO!" and that they were not ready to allow masks off for those who have had the important vaccine.  Even the Speaker of the U.S. House, is still saying that masks must be left on. Major businesses such as Starbucks and Home Depot still require masks, even for those with the vaccine.   Does it get a little confusing?  And that is just within the United States.  Clearly different countries and areas of the world are at different stages as to vaccines, infections, etc.  And, people (like a HBO TV host) has had to scrub his live show this week as he had the vaccine, but just got Covid.  Puzzling??!!

 

From the New York Times this morning, they had this headline: “The new U.S. guidance on masks is ‘a ticket to freedom,’ but comes with questions.”

 

Here are some of their story highlights: “New federal guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which cleared the way for people in the United States fully vaccinated against the coronavirus to drop mask-wearing in most situations, still came with plenty of caveats and confusion for Americans on Friday. It sent state and local officials, as well as private companies, scrambling to decide whether and when to update their own rules.  'We have all longed for this moment,' Dr. Rochelle P. Walensky, the CDC Director, said 'If you are fully vaccinated, you can start doing the things that you had stopped doing because of the pandemic.' Fully vaccinated people are still told to cover their faces when flying or taking public transit, when visiting health care facilities, and in congregate settings such as homeless shelters, as well as prisons.  The recommendations came as a surprise to many people in public health. They offered a stark contrast with the views of a large majority of epidemiologists surveyed in the last two weeks by The New York Times, who said that until many more Americans were vaccinated, there would be too many chances for vaccines, which are not 100 percent effective, to fail.  'Unless the vaccination rates increase to 80 or 90 percent over the next few months, we should wear masks in large public indoor settings,' said Vivian Towe, a program officer at the Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute, an independent nonprofit organization in Washington, D.C.”

 

Is this now all clear and fully understandable?  Obviously, there has been progress, thanks to the quick development of the successful vaccines.  BUT, world-wide and in some cases, there are many more questions and areas of serious uncertainty.  Am I missing something and/or being unfair?

 

Full story at:

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/05/14/world/covid-vaccine-coronavirus-cases

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

AFRICA?!!?: Fun, interesting visuals, plus travel details from this early 2016 live/blog. At 51,281 views. Featuring Cape Town, South Africa’s coast, Mozambique, Victoria Falls/Zambia and Botswana's famed Okavango Delta.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2310337

 

From the Wall Street Journal at noon today, you can see below how strongly UP, UP was the perceived value for Royal Caribbean stock.  The other two major cruise lines were also up about 7%, much above the overall market trend.  A good sign?.  How lasting and long-term?:

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[TLCOhio]

Below are the charts for the three major cruise lines as seen by the financial experts on Wall Street.  A good sign from Friday's trading and the major CDC announcements to open up?

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Kotor/Montenegro:  Exciting visual samples, tips, details, etc., for this scenic, historic location. Over 48,265 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1439193

 

 

From the Wall Street Journal later this afternoon, you can see below how significantly were the three major cruise lines stocks moved up today versus the "dips" earlier this week.  What does it all mean?  Longer-term?:

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[TLCOhio]

Is a re-opening getting closer?  Maybe soon??!!  From the Wall Street Journal this morning, they had this headline: “Cruise Lines Budget for Extra Costs as They Prepare to Restart Sailings" with this sub-headline: "The industry hopes to offer cruises out of the U.S. in July, which the CDC says is possible.”

 

Here some of their story highlights: “Cruise lines are budgeting for extra costs as they prepare to resume voyages out of the U.S.—their main market—after a more than yearlong break because of the coronavirus pandemic.  Cruise operators, which last year reduced costs by idling ships, laying off thousands of employees and curtailing marketing spending, hope to restart U.S. sailings in July. That could be feasible if the companies meet requirements set by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.  Cruise lines expect to book a mix of one-time and recurring expenses for enhanced sanitation, Covid-19 testing and other measures as they are vying to win back the public’s trust.  Miami-based Carnival Corp. , which operates nine brands, forecasts additional spending in the hundreds of millions of dollars, Chief Financial Officer David Bernstein said. The company sees costs needed to restart its ships as one-time expenses, while health protocol-related costs—a separate class of outlays—will depend on the duration for which they are needed, Mr. Bernstein added.”

 

Here is from this detailed reporting on alll three major cruise companies: "Royal Caribbean plans to emerge as a leaner company from the pandemic, CFO Jason Liberty said in late April, pointing to a simpler supply chain to save costs through bulk purchases. For instance, it is reducing the number of banana varieties from 19 to 11, he said.  'As we come out of this, there’s going to be some one-time costs in terms of ramping up our business,' Mr. Liberty said. 'But we’ve spent the past 13 months evaluating our cost structure and really reshaping it so that as we come out of it, we’re leaner.' "

 

Will Royal Caribbean being "a leaner company" result in any noticeable changes, positive or negative, for Silversea customers and their expectations?

 

Full story at:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/cruise-lines-budget-for-extra-costs-as-they-prepare-to-restart-sailings-11621598402

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

From the Wall Street Journal late this afternoon, you can see below how significantly were the three major cruise lines stocks were moving up and down during this past week.  Was it  little rocky during this period?:

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[TLCOhio]

For those who question whether following cruise ship finances would be important . . . OR NOT?? . . . below is a story today that might be of interest.  It is about the parent company of long-term luxury brand, Crystal.  That firm tends to have "fans" who are very loyal.  BUT, what about now?  And, for the future?

 

From the respected financial source of Bloomberg News this morning, they had this headline: “Genting Hong Kong Assesses Ability to Continue as Going Concern” with these highlights: “Genting Hong Kong Ltd. said it is assessing whether it will have 'sufficient financial resources to continue as a going concern' after the pandemic nearly wiped out its cruise business.  The cruise ship operator reported a net loss of $1.7 billion and net operating cash outflow of $629 million for the year ended December, according to a statement to the Hong Kong stock exchange on Sunday. Current liabilities exceeded assets by $3.3 billion and borrowings with principal of $3.4 billion were in default as of the end of 2020, it said.  The coronavirus epidemic has forced the company to temporarily suspend almost all of its cruise operations and stopped or deferred the construction of ships in its pipeline, according to the statement.  Further resumption of the cruise operations is dependent on the development of the Covid-19 pandemic, including the travel restriction requirement of different countries,' the company said in the statement.  The company said it may consider additional measures to improve its financial position including allotting new shares, raising liquidity through debt or equity sources, working with creditors to restructure debt, requests for debt holidays and the monetization of non-core assets.”

 

As I re-call a few months back, Genting Hong Kong tried to float more stock and borrow cash from banks.  BUT, they were re-buffed as not that credit worthy at the time.  Now what for Crystal?  Fortunately, the "Big Three" of Carnival, Royal Caribbean and NCLH have been able to sell more stock and raised added cash successfully.  

 

Full story at:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-23/genting-hong-kong-assesses-ability-to-continue-as-going-concern

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Dubrovnik!  Nice visual samples, tips, details, etc., for this super scenic and historic location. Over 47,917 views.    

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1439227

[TLCOhio]

This past week has seen a major UP-UPSWING for the stock values of the three major cruise lines.  As an example with Royal Caribbean, they started out early Monday morning at $83.29 and finished late Friday afternoon at $93.27  That's a BIG $10 a share jump in just five days.  BUT, what will happen next week?  In June?  And, for July-August??  

 

Where will their value be at the start of 2022?

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Athens & Greece: Many visuals, details from two visits in a city with great history, culture and architecture.  Now at 38,867 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1101008

 

From the Wall Street Journal late this afternoon, you can see below how significantly the three major cruise lines stocks were moving UP during this past week. Good news?:

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[TLCOhio]

For last week, below are the charts for how the three major cruise lines performed last week for the Wall Street financial experts.  Up some and then down later in the week.  Nothing too dramatically good or bad?

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Lisbon, NWSpain, Bordeaux/Brittany: Live/blog, June 2017 from Portugal to France along scenic Atlantic Coast.  Now at 31,699 views.  Many interesting pictures, details for history, food, culture, etc.:

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2511358

 

From the Wall Street Journal last week, you can see below how the three major cruise lines stocks were moving during this past week. Some up and then down?:

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[TLCOhio]

Even with things in cruise industry moving closer to re-opening, the financial "experts" on Wall Street rated all three of the major cruise lines downward.  Why? That's beyond my pay grade!!

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

From the Wall Street Journal for earlier this past week, you can see below how the three major cruise lines stocks were moving during this past week. Mostly down?:

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[CruiserFromMaine]

40 minutes ago, TLCOhio said:

Even with things in cruise industry moving closer to re-opening, the financial "experts" on Wall Street rated all three of the major cruise lines downward.

My guess is that the downgrades are due to inflationary concerns leading to rising rates on the big debt loads all the cruise lines took on. 

[Lois R]

Hi Terry, this is a bit OT but there is a thread on the board with a question about Alaska/cruise/tour. I know you had been there on MUSE and those photos and information are terrific.......I am not sure if you went with SS on the tour or not but maybe you could pop in and see if the cruiser is interested in your wonderful thread and those fantastic photos.😃

[TLCOhio]

On 6/11/2021 at 5:57 PM, CruiserFromMaine said:

My guess is that the downgrades are due to inflationary concerns leading to rising rates on the big debt loads all the cruise lines took on. 

 

Great above "guess" by our friend from Maine and smart comments as a follow-up about why the major cruise company stocks have slowed and/or drop during the most recent period.  YES. debt is big and the below story provides more background.  Is this a reason to worry?  Or, not, when making deposits and providing large advanced payments??

 

From the Wall Street Journal  yesterday, they had this headline: “Pandemic Hangover: $11 Trillion in Corporate Debt" with this sub-headline: "Stressed companies piled on debt as interest rates plummeted, but could face a reckoning in the next economic downturn.”

 

Here are some of their story highlights: “Before the pandemic, U.S. companies were borrowing heavily at low interest rates. When Covid-19 lockdowns triggered a recession, they didn’t pull back. They borrowed even more and soon paid even less.  By the end of March, their total debt stood at $11.2 trillion, according to the Federal Reserve, about half the size of the U.S. economy.  That torrent of inexpensive money has benefited all types of businesses. It helped cruise operators, airlines and movie theaters weather the pandemic by replacing some lost revenue with cash raised from bond sales. It allowed thriving businesses to stock up on cash and to save money by refinancing older debt. And it permitted companies that were struggling before the pandemic to ease the threat of bankruptcy by issuing new long-term debt.  The question now is whether companies have merely delayed a reckoning.  Some of the biggest borrowers during the pandemic have been those hurt most by it. Carnival Corp., the world’s largest cruise operator, had around $33 billion of total debt as of Feb. 28, almost triple what it had near the end of 2019.  As investor demand for corporate debt rebounded, borrowing money got easier. Carnival sold bonds or obtained loans from investors five more times over the next 10 months, finally issuing $3.5 billion of unsecured bonds in February at a 5.75% rate. In April, Carnival had raised enough money to last until it resumes full operations.  Carnival’s CFO said the company will reduce its debt in coming years by paying off bonds and loans as they come due, using cash generated from operations. The goal, he said, is to reclaim the same investment-grade ratings that the company had before the pandemic.”

 

Full story at:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/pandemic-supercharged-corporate-debt-boom-record-11623681511?page=1

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Panama Canal? Early 2017, Fort Lauderdale to San Francisco adventure through Panama Canal.  Our first stops in Colombia, Central America and Mexico, plus added time in the great Golden Gate City. Now at 30,633 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2465580

 

Below is the interesting graphic and headline from this Wall Street Journal profile yesterday about rising corporate debt, especially among the cruise lines.:

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[TLCOhio]

Below are the charts from the stock values for the three major cruise lines during the past week.  For this upcoming week, Carnival has scheduled a conference call with Wall Street analysts for Thursday, June 24, 2021, at 10 a.m. (EDT); to provide a business update.  A simulcast of the call will be available via the company's Web sites at www.carnivalcorp.com and www.carnivalplc.com.  I am sure there will be many questions as to how their corporate executives view the current and future market conditions in order to re-start, deal with the CDC, etc.  

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

From late 2018, see “Holy Lands, Egypt, Jordan, Oman, Dubai, Greece, etc.”, with many visuals, details and ideas for the historic and scenic Middle East. Now at 19,815 views.  Connect at:

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2607054-livenautica-greece-holy-lands-egypt-dubai-terrypix’s/

 

From the Wall Street Journal this past week, you can see below how the three major cruise lines stocks were moving downward.  Much of it was driven by overall market negative trends as talk of higher interest rates has caused negative trends.:

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[TLCOhio]

From this below on-line financial reporting site this morning, they had this headline: “3 Reasons Carnival's Stock May Sink After Its Ships Begin Sailing” with this sub-headline: "Investors are still navigating rough waters as Carnival's ships prepare to again leave port."

 

Here are some of their highlights from this review/analysis piece: “Carnival Cruise Lines stock has slowly but steadily moved higher as the company approaches its July 3 relaunch date. However, COVID-19 beached this stock as the pandemic forced its ships to stay in port for 15 months, and the effects of that shutdown could linger for years.   As its cruise liners return to the seas, Carnival stock will face three struggles that will probably run investors aground for the foreseeable future.   1. Carnival has a revenue problem at the moment.  Carnival has had to survive on negligible revenue since the beginning of the pandemic. In the first quarter of 2021, it reported only $26 million in revenue, a decline of over 99% from the $4.8 billion it brought in during the first quarter of 2020.  2. Carnival has a lot of new debt to account for.  Carnival can afford to offer such discounts due largely to the debt it accumulated during the shutdown. As of the end of Q1 2021, it holds more than $31 billion in total debt. 3. Carnival's stock price is not pricing in its headwinds.  Moreover, while paying down debt will strengthen the balance sheet, it leaves new investors with little incentive to buy the stock. The company's considerable debt burden and higher price relative to its book value could hamper stock price growth. When investors fully take the long-term effects of the company's shutdown into account, it could shipwreck this leisure stock for some time to come.”

 

Do these same factors apply for Royal Caribbean and NCLH?  Is this viewpoint too negative and/or realistic?

 

Full story at:

https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/21/reasons-carnival-stock-may-sink-after-ships-sail/

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Completed 2019 summer with Calgary, Jasper/Banff National Parks, Western Canada Rocky Mountaineer rail adventure, Vancouver, sailing up to Alaska on Silver Muse, post-cruise excursion to Denali, etc.  Many visuals and details from our first in these scenic areas!  Live/blog: 

https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2682584-live-terryohio-silver-muse-alaska-canadarockies-pix’s/

[TLCOhio]

For the past week, the financial experts on Wall Street viewed the three different major cruise lines a little differently.  These three stocks did not alll move in exactly the same, consistent direction.  Reactions?

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Barcelona/Med: June 2011, with stops in Villefranche, ports near Pisa and Rome, Naples, Kotor, Venice and Dubrovnik. Great visuals with key highlights, tips, etc. Live/blog now at 253,555 views.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1426474

 

From the Wall Street Journal this past week, you can see below how the three major cruise lines stocks were moving.  Royal Caribbean moved upward in the bst manner during the previous five days.  Not all three in the same direction?  Why?:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see this visual larger/better!)

 

 

[TLCOhio]

From the respected Bloomberg News and MSN on Thursday of last week, they had this headline: “Carnival Sees Full Fleet Sailing by Spring, Later Than Hoped” with these highlights: “Carnival Corp. Chief Executive Officer Arnold Donald estimates that the company will have its entire fleet of 91 cruise ships operating by next spring, a bit later than it originally hoped.  The company has already announced return dates for 42 ships by the end of the company’s fiscal year, which concludes on Nov. 30, according to a quarterly business update on Thursday.   Like the rest of the industry, Carnival’s cruise operations have remained mostly shut down, with notable exceptions including Costa Cruises and AIDA Cruises-branded voyages in Europe. But North American cruises are expected to return in the coming weeks.”

 

Last Thursday, I listened to this quarterly report with various questions from Wall Street financial experts to the top Carnival corporate executives.  My bottom-line summary was that this re-opening process is happening now, but will take longer to return to the "normal" compared to what they experienced in 2019.  Here is more from their story reporting: "The latest estimates on the timing of Carnival’s return suggest the company won’t meet its previous best-case scenario. On an April 7 conference call, Donald said he would like to have the full fleet going 'by the end of this year, early next year,' but he portrayed that time frame as an 'aspiration.'  Carnival shares slumped as much as 2.7% on Thursday, but they rebounded slightly off their lows.  Although restrictions are still in place due to the pandemic, the fleet should be sailing at capacity in the spring 2022 time frame, Donald said on the conference call.   Chief Financial Officer David Bernstein said the recovery will lay the groundwork for a return to profit before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization shortly afterward.  'If we do get back in the spring of 2022, we have the full fleet back in operation, we’re able to get to more normal type occupancy levels, then we should have significant positive Ebitda, particularly in the summer months of 2022,' Bernstein said. 'And we’ll go forward from there.'  The executives were careful to hedge anything that sounded like a forecast, noting that much depends on the trajectory of the pandemic. The company reported an adjusted net loss for the second quarter of $2.04 billion."

 

Full story at:

https://www.msn.com/en-US/news/companies/carnival-sees-full-fleet-sailing-by-spring-later-than-hoped/ar-AALosra?ocid=BingNewsSearch

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Norway Coast/Fjords/Arctic Circle cruise from Copenhagen, July 2010, to the top of Europe. Scenic visuals with key tips. Live/blog at 242,158 views.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1227923

[TLCOhio]

From the Wall Street Journal chart below this morning, they show how yesterday (on Monday June 28) that the financial markets really punished down, DOWN the stock values of Royal Caribbean and the other two major cruise lines.  RCL was down 6.47%.  Carnival dropped 7.04%.  Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings was down 6.09%.  So far, no major media sources have explained exactly why this "loss of confidence" happened.  

 

My guess?  The spread of the Covid variants seem to be happening in a more challenging manner than might have been expected.  Yes, ships are starting to sail.  but the percentages on board are not as high as some might hope or expect.  The re-opening is taking time and being back to "normal" might not be happening until late 2022 or 2023.  Reactions?  Other speculation and information?

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Sydney to NZ/Auckland Adventure, live/blog 2014 sampling/details with many exciting visuals and key highlights.  On page 23, post #571, see a complete index for all of the pictures, postings.  Now at 233,505 views.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1974139

 

[TLCOhio]

From the Wall Street Journal's sister publication, Barron's, yesterday, they had this headline: “Monday’s Selloff Creates a Buying Opportunity in Royal Caribbean, Stifel Says” with these highlights: “Cruise line stocks sold off Monday amid growing concerns about a sailing setback due to Covid variants. Investors may want to buy the dip in at least one operator.  In a note Monday, Stifel wrote that the selloff creates a 'solid buying opportunity' for shares of Royal Caribbean Group.  That stock lost 6.5% on Monday, versus a 0.2% gain for the S&P 500. Stifel, which has a Buy rating on Royal Caribbean, cited several reasons for liking the stock, including healthy liquidity. It also said the company has 'superior operational expertise and asset quality' and resilient core customers.  Royal’s Celebrity Edge vessel departed from Fort Lauderdale on Saturday, marking the first cruise out of a U.S. port in about 15 months for the major cruise operators.   Another reason for Monday’s selloff, the Stifel note observed, was Carnival’s disclosure that it wanted to have the option to sell up to $500 million of its shares to buy back the company’s U.K.-listed shares.  The Stifel note observed that there was confusion about that move and that some 'thought it was another round of equity dilution [which it is not].' ”

 

Full story at:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/mondays-selloff-creates-a-buying-opportunity-in-royal-caribbean-stifel-says-51624978159?adobe_mc=MCMID%3D33151612543613868540432315688083254519|MCORGID%3DCB68E4BA55144CAA0A4C98A5%40AdobeOrg|TS%3D1625066341

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Venice: Loving It & Why??!!  Is one of your future desires or past favorites? See these many visual samples for its great history and architecture.  This posting is now at 90,685 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1278226

[TLCOhio]

From checking the Wall Street Journal charts, the three major cruise lines continue to slide downward.  Why?  Not sure!  Have not seen any major news media summaries explaining this negative movement during a period when the cruise lines are slowly re-opening and trying to move towards some form of "normal".

 

Yesterday morning, Royal Caribbean opened and peaked at $87.35 per share and now by mid-morning Thursday, RCL is down, DOWN to $80.85.  Something is happening!!  BUT, for what reasons and how??  Both Carnival and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings have been sliding down in a similar manner this week.  

 

Any good speculation and/or smart guess as to what factors are driving this negative trend in cruise stock values?

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Amazon River-Caribbean 2015 adventure live/blog starting in Barbados. Many visuals from this amazing river and Caribbean Islands (Dutch ABC's, St. Barts, Dominica, Grenada, San Juan, etc.).  Now at 68,564 views:

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2157696

 

From the Wall Street Journal this past weekend, you can see below how the three major cruise lines stocks were moving during the month of June.  Not in a good, positive direction??!!  Why?:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see this visual larger/better!)

 

 

[Reef Knot]

I was surprised also, would of assumed that with countries  opening up the travel stocks would gain. Airlines are also taking a hit.

Can only think that maybe the rise in the oil price will affect operating costs?