SS/RCCL Finances: Improving, Options, Questions??!!

[TLCOhio]

3 hours ago, Doubt It said:

Pent up demand, not.  None of our travel group have any plans to cruise any time in the future - but there are already 4 land based trips to 4 locations in the world planned.   And after cruising 30 plus years, none of us are remotely sad about it.   So the cruise lines can lie all they want, but they are facing an existential change in consumer attitude.

 

Appreciate these great comments and follow-ups above and from Randy.  Personally, I have heard from long-term and highly-experienced travelers who have stated "NEVER AGAIN!"  BUT, much will depend on what happens, timing, how the cruising experience changes and/or improves, etc.  Many variables.  Plus, human nature is that people can and do change their minds if and as circumstances change.  Maybe, if and if??!!    

 

From the Wall Street Journal's sister publication of Barron's this morning, they had this headline: “Cruise Stocks Get a Boost on Vaccine News. Return to Sailing Is Still a Way Off.” with these highlights: “Cruise stocks were making 20%-plus gains Monday morning following positive news about progress on developing a coronavirus vaccine. Carnival, the largest of the big three U.S. cruise operators, was at $18 and change Monday morning, up more than 30% on the session. Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings had gained more than 20% to around $21.”

 

Will these future stock market trends continue or slide backwards?

 

Full story at:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/cruise-stocks-get-a-shot-in-the-arm-on-vaccine-news-return-to-sailing-is-still-a-way-off-51604936372?adobe_mc=MCMID%3D82793203267160828523351825210851149591|MCORGID%3DCB68E4BA55144CAA0A4C98A5%40AdobeOrg|TS%3D1604939323

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Athens & Greece: Many visuals, details from two visits in a city with great history, culture and architecture.  Now at 36,705 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1101008

 

 

From the Wall Street Journal, here is their chart for how the vaccine news caused the stock value to jump up, UP!!  How long will this optimism last and/or evolve?.:

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[TRIPACIAN]

RCC stock is up $16 per share!

[TLCOhio]

Below is the weekly update for the three major cruise lines, including the Silversea owner, Royal Caribbean.  This past week started fairly HIGH for the recent period, but then slide somewhat downward.  Ready to gamble and invest in these three cruise companies?  Do you have significant moneys in their hands for future deposits and payments?

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Lisbon, NWSpain, Bordeaux/Brittany: Live/blog, June 2017 from Portugal to France along scenic Atlantic Coast.  Now at 31,242 views.  Many interesting pictures, details for history, food, culture, etc.:

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2511358

 

 

From the Wall Street Journal, here are the stock charts for the three major cruise lines during the past month.   Not just the past five days.  All three companies have moved in a somewhat similar pattern, UP and DOWN during this period.:

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[TLCOhio]

From a well-known financial news website this morning, they had this headline: “Can Royal Caribbean Stock Outlast COVID-19" with this sub-head: "Why this cruise stock is well positioned to make it to the other side.”

 

Here are some of their analysis highlights: “As with so many other businesses, COVID-19 has been immensely difficult for the cruise industry. Revenues shrank to zero as a result of no-sail orders, while fixed costs for cruise companies remained well above zero.  Though the waters have undeniably been choppy, Royal Caribbean looks to have staying power beyond the pandemic. Here's why.  Cash raises and some good news.
After halting its operations, Royal Caribbean had to raise funds to outlast the pandemic. Fortunately, it was able to do so. The company increased its long-term debt to $17.6 billion as of Sept. 30, up from $8.4 billion a year earlier, allowing it to end the third quarter with $3.7 billion of liquidity.  Based on Royal Caribbean's free cash flow ranging from $1 billion to $2 billion annually before the pandemic struck, it will take several years of normal operations to get the company's balance sheet back to pre-pandemic levels. For now, the company continues to burn $250 million to $290 million per month, meaning it has more than a year of funds available to cover fixed costs in a zero-revenue environment.  How did demand hold up so well amid tough times? For the second half of 2021, Royal Caribbean's bookings are within historical pre-pandemic ranges.  Another positive step toward normalcy came this week via a Pfizer announcement that its COVID-19 vaccine candidate is 90% effective. Beyond being allowed to host passengers again, cruise operators will need to earn back public trust in the safety of sailing.  Capacity will be limited on these cruises for the foreseeable future, but the progress is still encouraging. Royal Caribbean caters solely to leisure travel rather than business; leisure travel demand is expected to bounce back more forcefully than business travel.”

 

Full story at:

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/11/14/can-royal-caribbean-stock-outlast-covid-19/

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Panama Canal? Early 2017, Fort Lauderdale to San Francisco adventure through Panama Canal.  Our first stops in Colombia, Central America and Mexico, plus added time in the great Golden Gate City. Now at 30,226 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2465580

[CruiserFromMaine]

Pent up demand? I can say there are two of us who would very much like to cruise again. It would need to be under “good” conditions, but I don’t know exactly what those would be at the moment. Some assurance we wouldn’t get left at the pier somewhere would be one condition though. A vaccine might not be a deal breaker but very important, depending on the level of community spread in the ports, both sea and air.

[TLCOhio]

On 11/14/2020 at 5:51 PM, CruiserFromMaine said:

Pent up demand? I can say there are two of us who would very much like to cruise again. It would need to be under “good” conditions, but I don’t know exactly what those would be at the moment. Some assurance we wouldn’t get left at the pier somewhere would be one condition though. A vaccine might not be a deal breaker but very important, depending on the level of community spread in the ports, both sea and air.

 

Appreciate these above very good comments and this follow-up that reflects many of our views, questions and concerns.  We would love to travel again, BUT, the conditions and circumstances need to be "right", safe and reasonable.  Not just for on the cruise ship, but via the airport/airlines, in the overseas ports/countries, traveling with people who are careful and smart, etc., etc. 

 

From the Wall Street Journal's sister publication of Barron's two days ago, they had this headline: “Carnival and Norwegian Cruise Line Are Rasing More Money — Again” with these highlights: “Two of the three major U.S. cruise operators announced capital raises this week, the latest in a series of similar moves in recent months as they’ve been largely sidelined by the pandemic since March.  Carnival, the largest cruise company, plans to use roughly the $1 billion stock offering it announced Tuesday to pare its growing debt load. It will exchange some debt for equity.  Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, the smallest of the major U.S. cruise companies, said in a release Tuesday that its offering involves 40 million shares at $20.80, totaling roughly $830 million. A company spokesman said Wednesday morning that it planned to use it for 'general corporate purposes.'  Norwegian’s monthly third-quarter cash burn averaged about $150 million.”

 

Issuing more stock is a way to raise more cash   It's not exactly like borrowing from a bank or hedge fund at a high interest rate  It gives them c"CASH" to stay afloat longer  But, ultimately these moves dilute the value of the stock in these companies.  Many challenging, long-term financial questions.  

 

Full story at:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/carnival-and-norwegian-cruise-line-are-selling-more-stock-51605713303?adobe_mc=MCMID%3D25622576245063861964226042368755602577|MCORGID%3DCB68E4BA55144CAA0A4C98A5%40AdobeOrg|TS%3D1605735018

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

From late 2018, see “Holy Lands, Egypt, Jordan, Oman, Dubai, Greece, etc.”, with many visuals, details and ideas for the historic and scenic Middle East. Now at 19,108 views.  Connect at:

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2607054-livenautica-greece-holy-lands-egypt-dubai-terrypix’s/

 

[TLCOhio]

The cruise ship stocks had a "roller-coaster", mostly downward ride during the past week.  See below.  

 

From the Wall Street Journal's MarketWatch reporting last night, they had this headline: “Royal Caribbean Group stock falls Friday, underperforms market” with these highlights: “Shares of Royal Caribbean Group slid 2.5% to $72.58 Friday, on what proved to be an all-around rough trading session for the stock market, with the S&P 500 falling 0.68% and Dow Jones Industrial Average  falling 0.75%. Royal Caribbean Group closed $62.73 below its 52-week high ($135.31), which the company reached on January 17th.  The stock demonstrated a mixed performance when compared to some of its competitors Friday, as Carnival fell 3.75% to $15.40.”

 

Full story at:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/royal-caribbean-group-stock-falls-friday-underperforms-market-01605919666

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Completed last summer Calgary, Jasper/Banff National Parks, Western Canada Rocky Mountaineer rail adventure, Vancouver, sailing up to Alaska, post-cruise excursion to Denali, etc.  Many visuals and details from our first in these scenic areas!  Live/blog at: 

https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2682584-live-terryohio-silver-muse-alaska-canadarockies-pix’s/

 

From the Wall Street Journal, below are the charts for the three major cruise lines and how their stock performed during this past week  Is somewhat "rocky" a fair and reasonable summary?.:

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[TLCOhio]

Below are the chart for the three major cruise lines.  Overall, it was a very good week, helped in part by more positive vaccine news, etc.

 

From this below popular web stock news/analyst source, they had this headline: “Why Carnival Stock Just Popped" with this sub-headline: "At least one of its brands will resume cruising before Christmas.”

 

Here are some of their story highlights: “Shares of Carnival (NYSE:CCL) were up 5.2% at 11:30 a.m. EST on Friday, outperforming rival cruise line stocks Royal Caribbean and Norwegian Cruise Line Hodings. There's good reason for Carnival's outperformance: It is about to resume cruising.  On Wednesday, just ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, the company announced that its German subsidiary, AIDA Cruises, will resume sailing out of the Canary Islands on Dec. 5.  As Carnival explained, Spain (which governs the Canaries) 'adopted clear regulations for safe travel in the Canaries in November, which are in line with AIDA's already established hygiene and prevention measures.' So the company can begin cruising with its AIDAperla and, a week later, its AIDAmar ships next month.  Combined, the two vessels usually accommodate just under 6,000 guests. But Carnival did not specify what their capacities will be in the era of COVID-19 and social distancing. Still, any cruises are better than none from a revenue standpoint. The resumption of cruising in the Canaries will surely help to diminish Carnival's rate of cash burn somewhat, and help it limp through the tail end of the recession. At the same time, conducting any operational cruises at all should give the company the opportunity to test out procedures for safe cruising across the rest of its fleet, once that is permitted.”

 

Full story at:

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/11/27/why-carnival-corporation-stock-just-popped/

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Barcelona/Med: June 2011, with stops in Villefranche, ports near Pisa and Rome, Naples, Kotor, Venice and Dubrovnik. Great visuals with key highlights, tips, etc. Live/blog now at 252,414 views.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1426474

 

From the Wall Street Journal, below are the charts for the three major cruise lines during this past week.  Overall, it was a positive and upward moving trend direction.  What for next week and the rest of this challenged 2020?.:

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[TLCOhio]

At the opening bell on Wednesday, Dec. 2, Royal Caribbean's stock value had dropped to a low of $76.25.  On the next day, its value had risen up to $84.90.  Rocky, roller-coast week for the three major cruise lines in the eyes of the Wall Street finance types??  Overall, in my view, the trend for these cruise stock continues upward based on the hope/optimism for the recent progress towards vaccines being closer to approval and wide distribution.  

 

From the Wall Street Journal's MarketWatch Friday evening, they had this headline: “Royal Caribbean Group stock underperforms Friday when compared to competitors” with these highlights: “Shares of Royal Caribbean Group slipped 1.98% to $82.73 Friday, on what proved to be an all-around positive trading session for the stock market, with the S&P 500 Index rising 0.88% to 3,699.12 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.83% to 30,218.26. The stock's fall snapped a two-day winning streak. Royal Caribbean Group closed $52.59 short of its 52-week high ($135.31), which the company achieved on January 17th.  The stock underperformed when compared to some of its competitors Friday.”

 

Full story at:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/royal-caribbean-group-stock-underperforms-friday-when-compared-to-competitors-01607129456

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Norway Coast/Fjords/Arctic Circle cruise from Copenhagen, July 2010, to the top of Europe. Scenic visuals with key tips. Live/blog at 240,865 views.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1227923

 

 

From the Wall Street Journal, below are the charts for the stock values, up and down, for the three major cruise line owners during the past week.:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these visuals larger/better!)

 

 

[TLCOhio]

From this below-linked popular web finance reporting site this morning, they had this headline: “Here's the Crazy Way Cruise Line Stocks Could Get Back to All-Time Highs” with these highlights: “The stock market has been booming ever since the November election and the announcement of a highly effective coronavirus vaccine. Among the stocks ripping higher, cruise line stocks have led the pack, with major cruise lines Carnival, Royal Caribbean, and Norwegian Cruise Lines each surging materially higher over the past month.  Yet after each company's epic one-month rally, it appears a 'return to normal' in cruising is already priced in. After running the numbers recently on Carnival, Royal Caribbean, and Norwegian, it appears all three stocks are pricing in a return to former levels of operating income, as well as a return to their historic P/E ratios.  Of course, all three stocks remain far below their all-time highs, since each company has taken on mountains of high-yield debt and issued stock at low prices just to raise cash to survive the no-sail period."  

 

Here is more from their reporting and speculation: "Yet while the upside seems capped from here, there's a peculiar way the cruise stocks could potentially -- with a big emphasis on 'potentially' -- make their way back up toward their all-time highs.  Today, the cruise line companies' stock prices aren't just important to investors -- they're also important to the companies themselves, since all three are using their stock as currency to raise cash.  That means the higher their stock prices go, the "cheaper" their equity cost of capital. Theoretically, if the stock price goes high enough, and therefore the cost of equity low enough, these companies can continue selling their stock to pay off their tremendous debt loads and lower their interest burdens.  This leads to a theoretical paradox. The higher that public market investors bid the stock, or the more 'overvalued' each company's stock price gets, the more money each company can raise through equity offerings to pay off debt, which could actually increase each company's intrinsic equity value. It's a strange case of a higher stock price that leads to a higher value, not just reflecting value.”

 

Full story at:

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/12/07/heres-the-crazy-way-cruise-line-companies-could-ge/

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Sydney to NZ/Auckland Adventure, live/blog 2014 sampling/details with many exciting visuals and key highlights.  On page 23, post #571, see a complete index for all of the pictures, postings.  Now at 231,463 views.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1974139

[TLCOhio]

Interesting past five days for the three major cruise lines from the perspective of the Wall Street financial "money eagle" types.  Certain ups and downs, even with the positives that the vaccines are really here and approved per the UK, Canada and US government officials.  But, it will take time to get these vaccines manufactured, distributed, used and becoming 90%+ effective.  

 

From the Wall Street Journal's MarketWatch section late yesterday, they had this headline: “Royal Caribbean Group stock falls Friday, underperforms market” with these highlights: “Shares of Royal Caribbean Group slipped 5.18% to $76.46 Friday, on what proved to be an all-around mixed trading session for the stock market, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, rising 0.16% to 30,046.37 and the S&P 500 Index SPX, falling 0.13% to 3,663.46. This was the stock's third consecutive day of losses. Royal Caribbean Group underperformed when compared to some of its competitors Friday, as Walt Disney Co. rose 13.59% to $175.72, Marriott International Inc. fell 2.47% to $128.51, and Carnival fell 4.52% to $18.57.”

 

Full story at:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/royal-caribbean-group-stock-falls-friday-underperforms-market-01607734142?adobe_mc=MCMID%3D33151612543613868540432315688083254519|MCORGID%3DCB68E4BA55144CAA0A4C98A5%40AdobeOrg|TS%3D1607793152

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Venice: Loving It & Why??!!  Is one of your future desires or past favorites? See these many visual samples for its great history and architecture.  This posting is now at 89,162 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1278226

 

From the Wall Street Journal, below are the charts for the three major cruise lines during this past week.  Like a roller coast with the various ups and downs?  Did profit-taking cause the downward slide later in the week?:

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[TLCOhio]

From the Wall Street Journal's sister publication of Barron's yesterday morning, they had this headline: “Royal Caribbean, Norwegian Cruise Line Are Put on Credit Watch Over Extended Suspensions” with these highlights: “Royal Caribbean Group and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings were put on watch for a credit-ratings downgrade amid concerns about their recent extensions of U.S. cruise suspensions into February and March. S&P Global Ratings said it has placed Royal Caribbean Group on credit watch negative following the suspension of cruises. It did the same for Norwegian Cruise Line that holds debt.  In a press release this week, the rating firm said Royal Caribbean’s listing 'reflects the heightened likelihood that we will lower our rating within the next few months, given a high degree of uncertainty as to Royal’s recovery path and its ability to substantially improve leverage in 2022 from what will likely be unsustainable levels in 2021.'  As most of its ships sit idle, Royal Caribbean, like its peers, has been burning through hundreds of millions of dollars of cash every month. In late October, the company estimated that its monthly cash burn was averaging about $250 million to $290 million.  As of Sept. 30, the company’s long-term debt was about $17.6 billion, more than double the $8.4 billion at the end of 2019—a reflection of the efforts Royal Caribbean has made to raise capital to stay afloat.”

 

Here is more from their reporting: "Chris Woronka, an equity analyst at Deutsche Bank who covers the cruise companies, says that the cash burn is a big concern for the industry, even when more ships start to sail.  'You’re still going to be burning a lot of cash in the early days of resumption of service,' he says, adding that the companies will have to resume their operations gradually once they are green lighted in U.S. ports.  S&P Global Ratings has Royal Caribbean’s issuer rating, as it’s called, at B+, which is junk, or below investment grade. A rating in the B category “indicates that the issuer is more vulnerable to adverse business, financial and economic conditions but currently has the capacity to meet financial commitments,” according to an S&P spokeswoman."

 

Full story at:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/royal-caribbean-norwegian-cruise-line-are-put-on-credit-watch-over-extended-suspensions-51607700601?adobe_mc=MCMID%3D53407051594699420642159589125696619691|MCORGID%3DCB68E4BA55144CAA0A4C98A5%40AdobeOrg|TS%3D1607797917

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Amazon River-Caribbean 2015 adventure live/blog starting in Barbados. Many visuals from this amazing river and Caribbean Islands (Dutch ABC's, St. Barts, Dominica, Grenada, San Juan, etc.).  Now at 67,679 views:

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2157696

[Randyk47]

Not surprised with the information in your last two posts.  All I can say is “UGH”.    

[brimary]

TLCOhio.....Thanks for your continued updates which are appreciated even when the news re Silversea is not encouraging for the future.The cruising industry is probably the most complex business to be involved with all countries of the World involved all with different regulations.Even here in the UK the four countries involved cannot agree a common way forward !

We live in limited hope for the return of Silversea cruising rather than sensible judgement....Sadly!

[TLCOhio]

On 12/13/2020 at 11:35 AM, brimary said:

TLCOhio.....Thanks for your continued updates which are appreciated even when the news re Silversea is not encouraging for the future.The cruising industry is probably the most complex business to be involved with all countries of the World involved all with different regulations.  Even here in the UK the four countries involved cannot agree a common way forward !

 

Appreciate these above great comments, insights and follow-ups from brimary and Randy.  "THINGS" continue very challenged, especially with the recent "flare-up" in the UK with a potential new variation of the Covid virus.  Hopefully, these two approved vaccines will also work on this newer, faster-spreading virus.  

 

Below are the stock charts for the three major cruise lines.  Overall, there was some "bounce", but mostly it was a downward trend for all three stocks during the past five days of trading on Wall Street.  Also, last week, NCL finalized the "Upsizing and Pricing of $850,000,000 of Senior Notes".  More money helps fight off the "cash-burn" for this company, but it adds to their long-term debt, etc.    

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

AFRICA?!!?: Fun, interesting visuals, plus travel details from this early 2016 live/blog. At 50,657 views. Featuring Cape Town, South Africa’s coast, Mozambique, Victoria Falls/Zambia and Botswana's famed Okavango Delta.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2310337

 

Even with a second vaccine approved and starting to be distributed, the overall trend was downward for the three major cruise line stocks as detailed in these charts from the Wall Street Journal for this past week.:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these visuals larger/better!)

 

 

[TLCOhio]

From the Reuters newswire few minutes ago this morning, they had this headline: “Futures tumble on fears over new coronavirus strain” with these highlights: “U.S. stock index futures tumbled on Monday as fears over a new strain of the coronavirus that has shut down much of Britain overshadowed a $900 billion stimulus package deal.  The strain, which is said to be up to 70% more transmissible than the original, forced major European countries to shut their borders with the UK and sowed fears of further economic disruptions.  Travel stocks fell in premarket trading, with cruise operators Royal Caribbean Cruises, Carnival Corp and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings fell between 8.4% and 9.5%.”

 

Full story at:

https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks-idUSL4N2J12LO

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Sydney to NZ/Auckland Adventure, live/blog 2014 sampling/details with many exciting visuals and key highlights.  On page 23, post #571, see a complete index for all of the pictures, postings.  Now at 231,920 views.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1974139

[TLCOhio]

From this below financial website early today, they had this headline: “Ranking Cruise Line Stocks in 2021 Is as Easy as 1, 2, 3” with these highlights: “It's not fair to say that all cruise lines are in the same boat. Carnival, Royal Caribbean, and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings have all suspended operations since March, and they aren't expected to resume the bulk of their operations until at least a couple of months into 2021. Travel stocks in general have been bad bets for investors in 2021, and cruise line stocks are among the industry's biggest losers. There are just three major publicly traded players, but they're not all built the same. Let's rank them from best to worst in terms of investing potential for the year ahead.”

 

For  Royal Caribbean, this writer notes: "Shares of Royal Caribbean have fallen 45% in 2020 as we head into the final two trading weeks of the year. If you think that's bad, check the competition. Carnival and Norwegian Cruise Line have both taken a 57% hit this year. Royal Caribbean is the second largest cruise line operator. Being the silver medalist in terms of size may not seem like a winning recipe for the best-performing cruise line stock, but there are a lot of advantages that Royal Caribbean has over its underperforming peers. We can start with margins. Royal Caribbean has historically been able to command higher markups for its cruises, and this means that it will have the easiest path back to profitability when the industry starts sailing again. Every cruise line may argue that it has the most loyal customer base, but Royal Caribbean can quantify the devotion. When cruise lines began to offer passengers on canceled sailings the choice of cash refunds or 125% in the form of future cruise credits, Royal Caribbean had the largest percentage of customers push their payments into 2021 and 2022 voyages."

 

Here is more important background: "Right now there isn't much of an advantage to being the world's largest cruise line operator. Its monthly cash-burn rate of $530 million is more than the money being squandered at Royal Caribbean and Norwegian Cruise Line combined.  Carnival's namesake brand also is magnetic to first-time cruisers given its entry-level pricing, and that's one segment of the market that is going to be a hard draw when the industry is sailing again in 2021.  As the smallest of the three players, Norwegian Cruise Line is the most vulnerable to buckling in an industry shake-out. If we're not sailing on cruise ships by the end of next year, you're kidding yourself if you think all three players would survive nearly two years of disruption. In that grim scenario, you'd be hard-pressed to argue that Norwegian Cruise Line wouldn't be the first to capitulate."

 

Full story at:

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/12/21/ranking-cruise-line-stocks-in-2021-is-as-easy-as-1/

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Kotor/Montenegro:  Exciting visual samples, tips, details, etc., for this scenic, historic location. Over 48,034 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1439193

[TLCOhio]

During the past month, the overall trend for the three major cruise lines has been downward.  Why?.  Not totally sure!!  For Royal Caribbean, the Silversea parent/owner, their recent peak was $84.40 on December 3.  As you can see below, RCL was down to $70.67 on Dec. 24.  That's a drop of 16.3% during a period where the positive news as to two different Covid-19 vaccine being approved and administered should have been driving up these cruise lines values.  Strange??  

 

From the below stock market-related website on Dec. 23, they had this headline: “Cruise Line Stocks Hit Choppy Waters Amid New Virus Strain” with these highlights: “Cruise line stocks sunk Tuesday over fears of a new, supposedly more infectious COVID-19 mutation discovered in the United Kingdom. The development comes as a major setback for the group, which has come under pressure in recent weeks amid a spike in global coronavirus cases, leading to uncertainty about the resumption of sailings.  Panic selling may provide a buying opportunity, given the World Health Organization (WHO) said that the Pfizer Inc. and Moderna, Inc. vaccines would likely be effective against the new virus strain.  'The new COVID-19 variant is unlikely to impact near-term therapeutics, return to normal,' Bank of America analyst Geoff Meacham told clients in a research note cited by CNBC. 'We don't expect this new variant to derail ongoing treatment efforts – including vaccines,' he added.”

 

My guess?  It's a combination of the virus having major flare-ups in the US., UK, Germany, etc., as to making the point that even with the vaccine approvals and starts, it is going to take much longer than many having hoping for some type of recovery to a modest level of "NORMAL".  Whatever "normal" might mean??!!  

 

Progress is being made, but the CDC is not going to be fast, easy or quick to give the "GREEN LIGHT" for being able to resume sailing.  Then, there is the "billion dollar question" as to how long the cruise lines, with much more money borrowed, can sustain their "cash burns" while they are not sailing and being able to gain revenue.  

 

Reactions?  Your speculation and questions, comments, etc.??

 

Full story at:

https://www.investopedia.com/cruise-line-stocks-hit-choppy-waters-amid-new-virus-strain-5093541

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Dubrovnik!  Nice visual samples, tips, details, etc., for this super scenic location. Over 47,639 views.    

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1439227

 

From the Wall Street Journal stock charts during the past month, below reflects the performance of the three major cruise lines.  Trend?  It's been downward even during a period with much positive news regarding vaccine approvals.:

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[clo]

On 12/26/2020 at 7:35 AM, TLCOhio said:

 It's a combination of the virus having major flare-ups in the US., UK, Germany, etc.,

Not "flare-ups" but rather surge upon surge upon surge. And until/unless the vaccines get out there fast enough I don't see restarting until very late this year, if not next year.

[TLCOhio]

On 12/31/2020 at 8:21 PM, clo said:

Not "flare-ups" but rather surge upon surge upon surge. And until/unless the vaccines get out there fast enough I don't see restarting until very late this year, if not next year.

 

Agree with your above comment and follow-up that "SURGE" is probably, sadly, the more accurate word than just being called a "flare-up".  It is not yet mid January and we still do not know the full implications from the infection spikes after the holiday period.  

 

From the Wall Street Journal in late December, they had this headline: “Cruise Ships Can’t Sail Away From Covid"  with this sub-headline: "Small luxury operators have tried strict testing requirements and capacity limits, but onboard outbreaks persist.”

 

Here are some of their story highlights: “Authorities around the world halted voyages on large passenger ships in March after Covid-19 tore through scores of vessels, but cruising never really stopped.  Smaller cruise ships exempted from the suspension continued to sail selected routes. To keep the deadly virus off ships, these boutique operators experimented with a variety of new precautions.  The result: They mostly failed.  Coronavirus infections repeatedly pierced so-called safety bubbles promoted by luxury cruise lines. Since June, about 200 people have tested positive for the virus on nearly two dozen cruises, according to a Wall Street Journal tally. At least one person, a crew member, died in his cabin with the virus, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.  'Transmission has not been controlled sufficiently,' the CDC said in a September report that cited the virus’s continued spread on smaller cruise ships as one of the agency’s reasons for extending its ban on sailing for large ships.  The recent outbreaks suggest that it will be nearly impossible to prevent the spread of infections in the short term without extreme measures that would drastically increase costs and reduce the entertainment value of a cruise.”

 

Below are the Wall Street Journal charts from how the three main cruises lines have been viewed and rated by the financial experts.  Lots of "Ups & Downs"??!!

 

Full story at:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/cruise-ships-cant-sail-away-from-covid-11609410601

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Athens & Greece: Many visuals, details from two visits in a city with great history, culture and architecture.  Now at 37,065 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1101008

 

 

From the Wall Street Journal, here are their charts for the top three cruising lines during the past one-month period.  Do these look like a rocky "roller-coaster" ride?  And these "twists and turns" were happening during a period as vaccines started to be administered in the U.S., U.K., etc.:

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[brumagin1]

Hi Terry,

 

Hope you have been well!  You will see on another thread that you have been missed while you have not been posting.   While I don’t post often, I join the others you have been missing you.

[TLCOhio]

On 1/11/2021 at 4:33 PM, brumagin1 said:

Hi Terry,  Hope you have been well!  You will see on another thread that you have been missed while you have not been posting.   While I don’t post often, I join the others you have been missing you.

 

YES, am doing well!!  Appreciate your very kind comments and follow-ups.  As noted on another thread, I had a little "plumbing" work done in late December and am pumping ahead in very good order.  Modern medicine and excellent medical professionals are very important.  

 

From the Wall Street Journal sister publication of Barron's yesterday, they had this headline: “Analyst Raises Price Targets on Cruise Stocks. Thing Is, They Already Trade Above the Targets.” with these highlights: “A Deutsche Bank analyst this week raised his price targets on all three of the major U.S. cruise operators. But don’t be deceived.  The analyst, Chis Woronka, is hardly pounding the table. He has a Hold rating on the stocks and doesn’t see cruising getting back to normal soon. And his price targets for Carnival, Royal Caribbean Group, and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings  are below where the stocks trade now.  After making big gains of more than 35% in November following positive Covid vaccine news and developments, the cruise stocks have cooled off over the past month. In a research note Friday, Woronka attributed that turnaround 'to multiple reasons, with perhaps the most important being a bit less optimism of late about the timing of a return to sailings out of U.S. ports.'  'It’s unlikely, in our view, that entire fleets will be back in the water much before year end,' he wrote. 'The critical question is, at what point can enough capacity return such that current (elevated) cash burn levels can be reduced to more manageable levels that might not necessitate further capital raises?'  Woronka also boosted his price target on Royal Caribbean to $62 from $46. His price target for Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings went to $22 from $18. All of those price targets factor in 2023 earnings. The higher price targets for all three resulted from higher 2023 forecasts Woronka is modeling for all three companies.  Royal Caribbean was trading Friday morning about 20% above Woronka’s revised price target, as was Norwegian. Carnival’s stock was more than 30% above Woronka’s revised price target.”

 

Full story at:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/analyst-raises-price-targets-on-cruise-stocks-thing-is-they-already-trade-above-those-targets-51610727140?adobe_mc=MCMID%3D62938012097098096420432183914788869181|MCORGID%3DCB68E4BA55144CAA0A4C98A5%40AdobeOrg|TS%3D1610731595

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Lisbon, NWSpain, Bordeaux/Brittany: Live/blog, June 2017 from Portugal to France along scenic Atlantic Coast.  Now at 31,385 views.  Many interesting pictures, details for history, food, culture, etc.:

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2511358

 

From the Wall Street Journal, here are their charts for the top three cruising lines during this past week.  There was a big jump up, UP on Thursday, but nobody has really explained the why and how for this upward movement.  Any guesses or ideas for this major movement?:

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[Silver Spectre]

Good to see you back Terry.

[CruiserFromMaine]

Welcome back, Terry! I appreciate your thoughtful posts. 

[crusinbanjo]

Welcome back Terry we all missed your insight and you!