SS/RCCL Finances: Improving, Options, Questions??!!

[Stumblefoot]

On 8/21/2020 at 9:35 AM, TLCOhio said:

Personally, I believe this Covid-19 situation is going to take longer than hoped to solve and return to some form of “normal”.

Terry, how do you define “solve” in relation to Covid-19?

Edited August 22, 2020 by Stumblefoot
Missing personal pronoun

[QueSeraSera]

Love your question Stumbles, it really made me think.  But I wouldn't wish it on anyone to provide a universal answer.  I'm thinking it will someday come down to each of us having to decide before heading off to a cruise - do I think the issues all (or most, or a sufficient number, or ?) around covid-19 have been solved to my satisfaction so off I go, or do I think they have not, so here I stay?  

[clo]

3 hours ago, Stumblefoot said:

Terry, how do you define “solve” in relation to Covid-19?

VACCINE, VACCINE, VACCINE. And nothing else for us.

[Stumblefoot]

3 hours ago, QueSeraSera said:

But I wouldn't wish it on anyone to provide a universal answer.  I'm thinking it will someday come down to each of us having to decide before heading off to a cruise - do I think the issues all (or most, or a sufficient number, or ?) around covid-19 have been solved to my satisfaction so off I go, or do I think they have not, so here I stay?  

I appreciate your POV QueSeraSera and I didn’t mean to imply I’m looking for a universal answer from anyone other than Terry to understand how he defines the word “solve” as it relates to Covid-19.  I think words matter and until we understand the meaning from those that use them, we can’t fully appreciate another’s position on the matter.

 

Take for example, clo’s response below.  Does “VACCINE, VACCINE, VACCINE and nothing else...” mean 100% efficacy?  Or, does it mean as long as a vaccine is available, regardless of efficacy much in the same way as the flu vaccine works, then they are good to go, recognizing some years the vaccine may only be <20% effective as we saw a few years ago with the flu?  I don’t know.  But, my assumption is the latter rather than the former, which is why it’s important for clo to clarify as my assumption is just as likely to be wrong as it is right.

 

1 hour ago, clo said:

VACCINE, VACCINE, VACCINE. And nothing else for us.

 

[clo]

1 minute ago, Stumblefoot said:

 But, my assumption is the latter rather than the former, which is why it’s important for clo to clarify as my assumption is just as likely to be wrong as it is right.

A solid vaccine. What's a good term? Data as to how many we're going to need and how often? If we don't have confidence that we're safe then we'll never cruise again. And I'm guessing it will never satisfy us and we'll never cruise again. I could eventually be comfortable flying with a great mask and a vaccine...maybe. Any more questions?

[UKCruiseJeff]

5 hours ago, Stumblefoot said:

Take for example, clo’s response below.  Does “VACCINE, VACCINE, VACCINE and nothing else...” mean 100% efficacy?  Or, does it mean as long as a vaccine is available, regardless of efficacy much in the same way as the flu vaccine works, then they are good to go, recognizing some years the vaccine may only be <20% effective as we saw a few years ago with the flu?  I don’t know.  But, my assumption is the latter rather than the former, which is why it’s important for clo to clarify as my assumption is just as likely to be wrong as it is right.

 

 

 

The biggest danger to individuals own well-being is their own self uncalibrated "confirmation bias" where people will receive and accept any reassurance that confirms what they wish to hear to do what they want and are desperate to do.  This is true of vaccines and the financial robustness of cruiselines and economies for example.  I find the idea that so many people are content to leave their cash with cruiselines for such a small possible but uncertain advantage a bewildering risk for example. It iis simply a risk one needn't take and doesn't guarantee any advantage at all.  I also find the idea of the simple phrase "we now have a vaccine" in isolation as being reassuring as also bewildering. Thus those with uncontrolled and minimally calibrated and overly optimsitic  "confirmation bias" will naturally be bewildered by those that are cautious. These two conflicting polar- opposite mindsets will never fully understand each other.

 

I suspect that the better answer to your interesting question with respect to what constitutes - or "solve" as in your question - isn't simply one factor ie vaccine but perhaps several converging favourable trends all pointing positively for the cautious amongst us and any single answer for the uncautious with a sliding scale of variables for those inbetween,

 

That means in my view (for example) when the potency of the virus ie long-term damage and death rates for the elderly are clearly reducing whilst contagion is reducing whilst at the same time the reliability of a vaccine and perhaps some new anti-virals demonstrably improve minimise death and long-term harm rates and reliable insurance becomes available with the certainty of being able to get back home from remote ports seems possible if one catches the virus. That might mean to the more sensible and cautious the level of acceptable risk they are happy with.  But I susuepct that it is several converging favourable trends the quiet majority of the elderly that are cautious whereas it is just one or perhaps two factors for the uncalibrated "confirmation bias" group. But there are very many of the cautious group that would never ever dream of traveling without insurance, and I'm not certain that there ever will be trustworthy insurance. 

 

There has also been virtually no debate about what the medical profession have noticed in youunger people as well as older - who have had the virus with no serious symptoms of what seems like long-term internal organ damage.

 

I think the more cautious and more sensible people are unlikely to be reassured by protocols adopted by cruise lines and a vaccine simply because of the healthy cautious levels of mistrust they have in such promises and the repercussions of being stranded abroad without being able to travel back to the reassurung level of care in one's home country.  I also think that a game decider for many of the sensibly cautious will be the lack of being able to obtain reliable insurance.  I susueoct that the majority who have come to terms with the unlikelyhood of travelling any time soon are the quiet majority not bothering to post their opinions and simply pushing on with the new realities of their lives..

 

I said many months ago that I thought this virus was existential and I haven't seen much to think that incorrect.

 

Edited August 23, 2020 by UKCruiseJeff

[TLCOhio]

On 8/23/2020 at 5:29 AM, UKCruiseJeff said:

The biggest danger to individuals own well-being is their own self uncalibrated "confirmation bias" where people will receive and accept any reassurance that confirms what they wish to hear to do what they want and are desperate to do.  This is true of vaccines and the financial robustness of cruiselines and economies for example.  I find the idea that so many people are content to leave their cash with cruiselines for such a small possible but uncertain advantage a bewildering risk.

I think the more cautious and more sensible people are unlike to be reassured by protocols adopted by cruise lines and a vaccine simply because of the healthy cautious levels of mistrust they have in such promises and the repercussions of being stranded abroad without being able to travel back to the reassurung level of care in one's home country. 

 

Appreciate these various comments and follow-ups from UK Jeff and clo in Nevada.  Agree that ALL of this is complex and at times very confusing.  Many unknowns right now.  Jeff is right that consumers at times based their decisions on "emotions" and not always based the best, most sound logic and reason.  But, it's their money with which they are "GAMBLING"!??! 

 

As to the view of the financial world "experts" on Wall Street and elsewhere in the world, this morning they are voting "thumbs up" right now as to the value of the three major cruise lines.  Why?  Nothing reported this morning that gives any type of explanation. As always, these financial and medical questions move in varied directions.  Never clear, simple and perfect.  Right or wrong? 

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Venice: Loving It & Why??!!  Is one of your future desires or past favorites? See these many visual samples for its great history and architecture.  This posting is now at 88,514 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1278226

 

 

From the Wall Street Journal late this morning, below are the "charts" for the three major cruise lines.  All were up significantly above what the overall market was doing.  These graphs show their stock performance during the past five business days.  Why this upward movement?  Not sure!!  Your guess??:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these visuals larger/better!)

 

 

[UKCruiseJeff]

A gamble is only a gamble when there is a known profit if you win.  These are gambles on gambles.  

 

Or put another way these are mostly unsecured high-risk loans made by well-wishers.  

 

And even then, whereas normally the lender imposes restrictive terms and conditions attached to the loan on the borrower to try and protect their cash, in this case bizarrely  it is the other way round with the borrowers imposing  restrictive terms and conditions on the lenders.

 

 

Edited August 24, 2020 by UKCruiseJeff

[clo]

In case every one hasn't read this, it was an eye opener for us back in MARCH.

 

https://medium.com/@Jason_Scott_Warner/the-sober-math-everyone-must-understand-about-the-pandemic-2b0145881993

[TLCOhio]

12 minutes ago, clo said:

In case every one hasn't read this, it was an eye opener for us back in MARCH.

https://medium.com/@Jason_Scott_Warner/the-sober-math-everyone-must-understand-about-the-pandemic-2b0145881993

 

Do you have more details as to the background, professional experiences, etc., with this individual writer??  I did a variety of searches and could not find any details about him and/or his experiences/education, etc.  The Medium website is also limited as to its background and history as a publishing/journalism source.  Any help or more info?

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

[clo]

17 minutes ago, TLCOhio said:

 

Do you have more details as to the background, professional experiences, etc., with this individual writer??  I did a variety of searches and could not find any details about him and/or his experiences/education, etc.  The Medium website is also limited as to its background and history as a publishing/journalism source.  Any help or more info?

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

Nope. Medium doesn't fact check its pieces either. But to my husband with a bachelor's degree in accounting, a master's in finance and whose favorite word is "compounding" 🙂 this knocked his socks off. It's all about the math. So to us his background was irrelevant. It's all about the numbers. And remember he wrote this in March.

[QueSeraSera]

Thanks for the update on the cruise line stocks Terry.  Is it just me or is the stock market becoming disconnected from reality?  Rhetorical question I guess, no one knows.  I took some profits today but have no idea where to put the proceeds.

Clo's post is also appreciated but I got bogged down half way through.  Wish I had your husband's knowledge and affinity for compounding.

[UKCruiseJeff]

48 minutes ago, QueSeraSera said:

Thanks for the update on the cruise line stocks Terry.  Is it just me or is the stock market becoming disconnected from reality?  Rhetorical question I guess, no one knows.  I took some profits today but have no idea where to put the proceeds.

 

A rather alarming fact is that if we are to believe in the value of companies then the current value of Apple is more than the total value of all of the FTSE100 listed companies combined.

[clo]

2 hours ago, QueSeraSera said:

Is it just me or is the stock market becoming disconnected from reality? 

We have an IRA and another account that's mostly in the market and always has been and it's never made sense. It goes up when you're absolutely sure it will go down and the reverse. That's why we don't handle it ourselves.

[cruiseej]

2 hours ago, QueSeraSera said:

Is it just me or is the stock market becoming disconnected from reality?

 

Isn't it always? 😉  A company announces a nice profit, good customer growth, etc, but the stock plunges because they don't project as much growth in the future as some Wall Street analysts had previously guesstimated. Sheesh, it can drive you crazy!

[Stumblefoot]

6 hours ago, QueSeraSera said:

Is it just me or is the stock market becoming disconnected from reality?

 

Never fight the Fed.  As long as the money continues to flow, which we've experienced since the March lows, happy days are here again.  But, as soon as the markets sniff even a hint of tightening, then it'll be time to bar the hatches and protect your capital. 

 

For now, let your profits run and set stops to protect them.  As we've all seen multiple times in our lifetimes, crazy high valuations can continue long beyond anyone's comprehension.

[cruiseej]

7 hours ago, clo said:

In case every one hasn't read this, it was an eye opener for us back in MARCH.

 

https://medium.com/@Jason_Scott_Warner/the-sober-math-everyone-must-understand-about-the-pandemic-2b0145881993

 

Yes, this was a good wake-up call to anyone back in March when the reality of COVID-19 was not yet apparent to most of us. His math is accurate, but reading it now, it's clear things did not develop in quite the exponential numbers he warned of. It's been quite bad… just not that bad. The best defense he outlines -- social distancing -- is just as solid advice today as it was in March. If everyone is smart about this, we can significantly diminish the virus; if many people are smart but some aren't,  it will continue to be a problem. 

[philipb]

10 hours ago, UKCruiseJeff said:

 

A rather alarming fact is that if we are to believe in the value of companies then the current value of Apple is more than the total value of all of the FTSE100 listed companies combined.

 

The UK National Debt stands at £1.8 trillion. The market cap. of Apple is $2.15 trillion (equals £1.64 trillion). So if the UK government owned Apple it could pay off our National Debt. In full. How extraordinary is this?

Edited August 25, 2020 by philipb
correct £sign to $

[Reef Knot]

10 hours ago, UKCruiseJeff said:

 

A rather alarming fact is that if we are to believe in the value of companies then the current value of Apple is more than the total value of all of the FTSE100 listed companies combined.

 

You could also say that the FTSE 100 is hugely under valued. 

[UKCruiseJeff]

6 minutes ago, philipb said:

 

The UK National Debt stands at £1.8 trillion. The market cap. of Apple is £2.15 trillion (equals £1.64 trillion). So if the UK government owned Apple it could pay off our National Debt. In full. How extraordinary is this?

 

True.   (I still feel so much anger with myself that I didn't put more into Ocado on launch when everyone was saying that they were a daft idea.)

 

I've noticed with interest that many posters are seemingly trying to feed their positive confirmation bias by interpreting the short-term increases and decreases in share price of cruise lines as being a sign of long-term confidence - or lack thereof - in both the line and industry - and some bizarreley even simply on the odds of a reliable vaccine - rather than recognition that most of the volatility is due to punting and gambling on short-term price fluctuations in the hope of short-term profits.

 

In the same vein much emphasis is placed on financial market commentary when many or most commentators are simply talking markets up or down for their own investment interests.

 

Obviously long-term investors have little or no impact on share prices because they aren't buying or selling or churning.

[UKCruiseJeff]

5 minutes ago, Reef Knot said:

 

You could also say that the FTSE 100 is hugely under valued. 

 

You aren't from a Nigerian call center are you .... 😉

[TLCOhio]

On 8/25/2020 at 6:26 AM, UKCruiseJeff said:

In the same vein much emphasis is placed on financial market commentary when many or most commentators are simply talking markets up or down for their own investment interests.   Obviously long-term investors have little or no impact on share prices because they aren't buying or selling or churning.

 

Agree with UK Jeff and others that the Wall Street markets can be challenging to follow and figure out.  BUT, maybe, they are the best available (and flawed) indicator to give some small form of measurement.  AND, maybe a certain amount of "future guessing"??

 

Today is a good sampling for unexplained movements.  See the below Wall Street Journal charts today as an example.  All three stocks go up, UP significantly ahead of the overall market that was only up a small amount.  There were no major announcement to drive this upward movement.  Hard to figure out??!!

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Amazon River-Caribbean 2015 adventure live/blog starting in Barbados. Many visuals from this amazing river and Caribbean Islands (Dutch ABC's, St. Barts, Dominica, Grenada, San Juan, etc.).  Now at 67,353 views:

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2157696

 

These three Wall Street Journal charts below reflect the stock values during the past five business days.:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these visuals larger/better!)

 

 

[TLCOhio]

It's hard to explain or understand, but yesterday/Friday, Wall Street was smiling down on the three major cruise ship lines.  As shown below from the Wall Street Journal's five-day stock chart, Royal Caribbean Group was up, UP . . . 5.3%.  For Carnival, they went up 6.8% and NCL increased 6.3% yesterday.

 

There were no major stories and/or announcements yesterday to drive this upward movement.  The overall market was only up a relatively tiny amount.  Strange??!!  Any guesses or speculation as to why?

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

AFRICA?!!?: Fun, interesting visuals, plus travel details from this early 2016 live/blog. At 50,049 views. Featuring Cape Town, South Africa’s coast, Mozambique, Victoria Falls/Zambia and Botswana's famed Okavango Delta.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2310337

 

[TLCOhio]

Might have found a possible answer as to why the Wall Street folks speculated and drove up the stock values for the three major cruise companies during the past two days.  

 

From this below financial analyst there was this headline: “Why Royal Caribbean, Carnival Corporation, and Norwegian Cruise Line Stocks All Just Popped 5% (and More)” with these highlights: “For the second day running, cruise stock investors are having a very good day. Yesterday, Big Pharma company Abbott Laboratories announced the release of a 'fast, $5, 15-minute, easy-to-use COVID-19 test' that promises to quickly permit patients to discover if they have antibodies indicating prior infection with the novel coronavirus (such that they can be confident they're now immune, noninfective, and thus 'safe' to travel on cruise ships). Today, investors seem to be reacting to news that could prevent them from getting infected in the first place.  Wall Street analysts came out with new reports on a pair of vaccine candidates from VBI Vaccines, VBI-2901 and VBI-2902, which initial data (on mice) suggest could be extraordinarily effective in the production of neutralizing antibodies to fight coronavirus. They're apparently so effective that vaccinations with VBI-2901 and VBI-2902 could potentially be administered in a single dose, rather than the more usual two-round vaccination. Investment bank Oppenheimer declared they could become 'best-in-class' vaccines against COVID-19, and then Raymond James declared them 'the best vaccine of them all.'   Big Pharma is burning both ends of the candle trying to put coronavirus to bed, developing both vaccines to prevent infection with COVID-19 and tests to confirm the presence of protective antibodies. The more progress they make -- or even just promise (VBI's vaccines, after all, haven't even begun Phase 1/2 trials yet) -- the more enthusiasm you can expect to see about cruise line stocks among investors hoping for a recovery in the business.”

 

Full story at:

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/why-royal-caribbean-carnival-corporation-and-norwegian-cruise-line-stocks-all-just-popped

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Kotor/Montenegro:  Exciting visual samples, tips, details, etc., for this scenic, historic location. Over 47,812 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1439193

[crusinbanjo]

Always love your well thought out posts Terry!  Thanks for the info!