Will There Be Any Cruising At All In 2020?

[pcakes122]

1 hour ago, onetimearoundtheworld said:

Life is inherently dangerous. Accidents, injuries, infections, death. Stuff happens. So no one should wait for a type of vacation that has zero as a number to everything negative. Luckily the majority is not like grumpy and cranky cruise critic 😉

 

You sound just like I used to. When I was getting ready to go on my March 8th cruise, the news was filled with talks of Coronavirus and all the unknown dangers. I can't tell you how many of my friends, family members and coworkers (including my boss) told me that I was absolutely crazy to step foot on a cruise ship during a pandemic. I laughed them all off and told them that I was NOT going to live my life in fear and that while I was going to take reasonable precautions there was nothing that was going to stop me from getting on my cruise and going on my vacation!  I called them all dramatic and in my mind I saw them all as little old grandmas who are afraid of their own shadows.

 

I am very, very lucky (God willing 🙏) that I will live to take another cruise. Many, many others who contracted Covid-19 when I did cannot say the same.

 

I honestly am not trying to be a Debbie Downer, but I can't help but see myself in so many of these posts from people who truly do not fully understand the risks and the ravages of this disease. I WAS YOU so I know that no one is going to stop most of you from forging ahead before it may be fully safe. But I just think it's important to hear me say that I WAS WRONG and all the scaredy-cats who warned me not to go were right.

 

It's true that nothing in life is guaranteed and that there are risks everywhere, but we are nowhere near close enough to the point where cruising would even be reasonably safe.  

Edited April 29, 2020 by pcakes122

[hamrag]

3 hours ago, pcakes122 said:

 It didn't help me. 😢

You can't possibly know that for sure. 😉

[Mercury]

8 hours ago, pcakes122 said:

You are kidding yourself because you don't fully understand what you're looking at.

 

NCL was required to report to the CDC any KNOWN cases of Covid-19. That would be people who were diagnosed upon disembarkation AND advised NCL that they were. I would venture to say that the small NCL numbers were people who were hospitalized, and the hospital notified NCL who then notified the CDC.

 

I was on the last sailing of the NCL Bliss (March 8th), and I tested positive for Covid-19 when I got home. I had symptoms on the ship, but I wasn't fully aware of what Covid symptoms were (at that time the publicized symptoms were dry cough, high fever and shortness of breath - none of which I had.) I returned home on March 15th and on March 16th I received an email from NCL advising me that someone on the prior sailing had tested positive for the disease. At that point, because I did have respiratory symptoms (productive cough, runny nose, fatigue, etc.), I was able to get a test and tested positive. I DID NOT advise NCL of these results, nor did they request in the email that I get tested and let them know the results. 

 

I am certain that there are many, many more people who have a similar story as mine - and our confirmed cases are NOT included in what you are reading in the Miami Herald.

 

It is VERY dangerous to use these numbers as a way to gauge how risky it is to cruise during this pandemic.

 

I thought I was going to be just fine on my cruise. I brought my own disinfectant and I wiped down door knobs, remote controls and even the slot machines I played in the casino!  I was staying in the Haven and I had all my meals there (most in my cabin.) I never went to the Atrium, the buffet, specialty or main dining rooms, theater, pool or any other common venues. I had a very naive sense of safety because I thought I was taking all the right precautions. I was one of those people who just thought it wasn't going to happen to me (especially with my diligence and precautions!)

 

By the way, NCL took my temperature upon embarkation and disembarkation and I had no fever. As a matter of fact, I never had a fever throughout the course of the disease.

 

I love to cruise and I will cruise again. However, I will not cruise until this disease is completely under control, whenever that is.

 

Also, this is not your normal flu. I am still sick after all of these weeks. I am one of the lucky ones who was able to tough it out at home, but that doesn't mean it's been an easy road. This has been the most frightening disease I have ever experienced. Trust me when I tell you you do not want to find out first hand!

 

Thank-you for your very informative post. 

 

You raise some important points:

1)Despite all the extra precautions both you and NCL took, you still got the virus.

2) The cruise lines did not advise the CDC of cases such as yours because you were not required to tell them. So there are many many more cruise passengers who picked up Covid 19 on board and the "official" figures are thus totally under reported.

3) Taking of temperature is no guarantee that a person does not have Covid-19

 

 

[pcakes122]

32 minutes ago, hamrag said:

You can't possibly know that for sure. 😉

It boggles my mind that people just don't seem to get it. Whether I contracted it on the ship or not has no bearing on whether or not cruising is safe.  Let's say for the sake of argument that I did not contract it on the Bliss, but that I got it from my mailman the day before boarding.

 

NCL took my temperature upon boarding (it was normal) and I had absolutely no symptoms.  However, according to your theory that I contracted it before getting on the ship, I was walking around unknowingly with a LIVE virus.  I handled my luggage and passed it to a porter who then touched other people's luggage. I spent at least a half-hour in the Haven check-in lounge before having lunch in the Haven Restaurant. I probably touched dozens of surfaces along the way and there was absolutely no NCL employee following me with a bottle of disinfectant.  (By the way, during my sailing NCL was on high sanitation alert.) 

 

The danger in cruising is not that there is Covid-19 ON THE SHIP.  NCL could submerge their ships in a sea of Lysol before you board and that will not help you. The danger in cruising is being in close proximity to thousands of other people who you have no idea where they have been or whether or not they are infected.  It makes me feel terribly guilty to know that there is NO doubt that I infected others on the Bliss and that they then passed it on to even more people.  This is a highly contagious disease and that's just a reality even if you don't want to accept it.

 

The biggest problem in my mind that makes cruising more dangerous than say going to a football game in a big stadium is that should you contract Covid-19 on a ship your chances of survival are dramatically diminished.  The ships' medical facilities are not equipped to handle this disease - especially if there was even a minor breakout.  Heaven forbid you should contract Covid-19, you want to have ready access to a hospital.

[pcakes122]

2 minutes ago, Mercury said:

 

Thank-you for your very informative post. 

 

You raise some important points:

1)Despite all the extra precautions both you and NCL took, you still got the virus.

2) The cruise lines did not advise the CDC of cases such as yours because you were not required to tell them. So there are many many more cruise passengers who picked up Covid 19 on board and the "official" figures are thus totally under reported.

3) Taking of temperature is no guarantee that a person does not have Covid-19

 

 

Thanks for the support.  Regarding #2, I thought it was interesting that even though NCL notified passengers via email about our possible exposure, they definitely did not ask us to report any test results to them.  I realize now if they had done that they would have been required to report those numbers to the CDC which could have been a PR disaster.

 

By the way  I just want to reiterate which I have said in other posts that I do not blame NCL in any way AT ALL for me getting sick. I stepped on that ship fully knowing the risk and I was willing to take it.

[ukbecky]

15 hours ago, ukbecky said:

 

The number of cases is irrelevant - it depends entirely on whether tests were done or not. This virus was around long before tests were being done.

 

The whole point of my post was that cruising is not "uniquely life-threatening". That people get sick, always have, for all kinds of reasons. And that the number of deaths on cruise ships is not nearly as high as some expect us to believe.

 

 

Because it bears repeating.

 

Most people are fixating on the number of cases. The point is the number of deaths - a known concrete number.  I posted this to make people aware of the number of deaths from Covid-19 on cruises. Which is 65 total for 259 ships carrying tens of thousands of passengers and crew, over quite a few weeks. The Diamond Princess was quarantined on February 4th, so all lines were aware of the danger, and taking action, from at least that date.

 

Many people, on many ships, got sick - and many people got better. We will never know how many. But we DO know how many died.

 

No one ever said that people did not get sick, or that few people got sick. People get sick all the time on ships. Who has ever cruised with a guarantee against getting sick? It's not even rare, especially in the winter months. I got the flu on a cruise 2 years ago, despite my yearly flu shot, and it was pretty awful.

 

The numbers of DEATHS do not lie. So, no, I don't think I am "kidding myself", or that cruising(or any travel) is life-threatening for the average person.

Edited April 29, 2020 by ukbecky
typo

[Mercury]

25 minutes ago, ukbecky said:

 

 

Because it bears repeating.

 

Most people are fixating on the number of cases. The point is the number of deaths - a known concrete number.  I posted this to make people aware of the number of deaths from Covid-19 on cruises. Which is 65 total for 259 ships carrying tens of thousands of passengers and crew, over quite a few weeks. The Diamond Princess was quarantined on February 4th, so all lines were aware of the danger, and taking action, from at least that date.

 

Many people, on many ships, got sick - and many people got better. We will never know how many. But we DO know how many died.

 

No one ever said that people did not get sick, or that few people got sick. People get sick all the time on ships. Who has ever cruised with a guarantee against getting sick? It's not even rare, especially in the winter months. I got the flu on a cruise 2 years ago, despite my yearly flu shot, and it was pretty awful.

 

The numbers of DEATHS do not lie. So, no, I don't think I am "kidding myself", or that cruising(or any travel) is life-threatening for the average person.

 

I'm afraid the figures DO lie. And the number of deaths is NOT a "known concrete number".

 

This article from the Financial Times on 26 April refers...

Global coronavirus death toll could be 60% higher than reported:

https://www.ft.com/content/6bd88b7d-3386-4543-b2e9-0d5c6fac846c

 

Also, as pcakes122 has posted above, the cruise lines did not require passengers to report to them if they had contracted the virus. Thus, the figures on cruise ships are under-reported: both on the number of people who contracted the virus and those that then went on to die from it.

[ECCruise]

I think it needs to be said that 65 deaths is not inconsequential or good news because the number is supposedly low.

They were involved in an entirely unnecessary pursuit--cruising.  They literally did not need to die. 

At this point that is hindsight, obviously.  Many did not factor in the risk before they sailed because it was so early.  But since thread is concerned with the future of cruising in 2020,  everyone who cruises now IS aware of the dangers, or should be.

Having been on a cruise that was affected (6 ports cancelled at the last minute, our disembarkation port refusing to allow us to disembark) I would be reluctant (at best) to board another ship in this time frame. 

[Laszlo]

8 hours ago, Sand and Seas said:

You're making my point.

 

On the ship employees are following everyone around and wiping down the surfaces several times a day.   That's not happening with the same intensity in our local stores.

 

You haven't been to a Costco lately have you Lol. Not only are they wiping down shopping carts they have people positioned around the store wiping down everything people touch. The have two people in each isle where the refrigerated and frozen foods are. When someone opens one of the glass doors their is a person right behind them wiping down the handle. The same at check out. The counters are wiped down after each person

[Bluewake]

12 hours ago, pcakes122 said:

You are kidding yourself because you don't fully understand what you're looking at.

 

NCL was required to report to the CDC any KNOWN cases of Covid-19. That would be people who were diagnosed upon disembarkation AND advised NCL that they were. I would venture to say that the small NCL numbers were people who were hospitalized, and the hospital notified NCL who then notified the CDC.

 

I was on the last sailing of the NCL Bliss (March 8th), and I tested positive for Covid-19 when I got home. I had symptoms on the ship, but I wasn't fully aware of what Covid symptoms were (at that time the publicized symptoms were dry cough, high fever and shortness of breath - none of which I had.) I returned home on March 15th and on March 16th I received an email from NCL advising me that someone on the prior sailing had tested positive for the disease. At that point, because I did have respiratory symptoms (productive cough, runny nose, fatigue, etc.), I was able to get a test and tested positive. I DID NOT advise NCL of these results, nor did they request in the email that I get tested and let them know the results. 

 

I am certain that there are many, many more people who have a similar story as mine - and our confirmed cases are NOT included in what you are reading in the Miami Herald.

 

It is VERY dangerous to use these numbers as a way to gauge how risky it is to cruise during this pandemic.

 

I thought I was going to be just fine on my cruise. I brought my own disinfectant and I wiped down door knobs, remote controls and even the slot machines I played in the casino!  I was staying in the Haven and I had all my meals there (most in my cabin.) I never went to the Atrium, the buffet, specialty or main dining rooms, theater, pool or any other common venues. I had a very naive sense of safety because I thought I was taking all the right precautions. I was one of those people who just thought it wasn't going to happen to me (especially with my diligence and precautions!)

 

By the way, NCL took my temperature upon embarkation and disembarkation and I had no fever. As a matter of fact, I never had a fever throughout the course of the disease.

 

I love to cruise and I will cruise again. However, I will not cruise until this disease is completely under control, whenever that is.

 

Also, this is not your normal flu. I am still sick after all of these weeks. I am one of the lucky ones who was able to tough it out at home, but that doesn't mean it's been an easy road. This has been the most frightening disease I have ever experienced. Trust me when I tell you you do not want to find out first hand!

 

I agree.  In fact, I couldn't help but notice that NCL's numbers reported no deaths despite the news reports of a woman from central Florida who contracted Covid-19 and became ill while aboard a NCL cruise.  She died shortly after returning from the cruise.

https://www.hickeylawfirm.com/blog/ncl-passenger-says-company-has-not-informed-passengers-of-her-sisters-coronavirus-diagnosis

https://www.wesh.com/article/its-been-horrible-central-florida-womans-twin-sister-dies-after-falling-ill-on-cruise-ship/32295070

 

 It's always important to consider the source of the data and how it was collected when assessing the validity of any research study/report. Here is a link to the methodology used by the Miami Herald in preparing the chart.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1bYPc4HesZ7vrbtbeNEGWHo2MqQdfRc6IXYe2rGoMV_I/edit

 

The description of the methodology notes the limitations in available tests on ships and the dependence on self-reporting as critical factors.  [e.g. "COVID-19 tests were not available on cruise ships until after the industry halted all new cruises on March 13."]   As others have noted, the stats in the chart are a reflection of the numbers of passengers who tested positive.  If you test only ten passengers, your reported numbers are going to be quite low. If you test 1000 passengers, the numbers are likely to be higher based on some current estimates that up to 15% of the US population may have antibodies for Covid-19.   I also have to assume that some passengers were infected but asymptomatic as well as others who experienced lesser symptoms but many of those saw no reason, or were reluctant, to seek  medical help or testing or to subsequently report their condition to the Miami Herald or the CDC.  Same with people who developed symptoms after they disembarked.

 

I am not contending there is some sort of vast corporate conspiracy here.  I certainly can appreciate the difficult position in which the cruise lines must have found themselves.  Given the paucity of available tests, the dependence on self-referral for testing or treatment, and rapidly changing information about Covid-19 transmission and treatment, cruise ship healthcare professionals no doubt were operating with insufficient equipment and knowledge as passengers fell ill.   I also believe that the numbers may, indeed, accurately reflect what was known by the cruise lines... but how much did they not know?  Before accepting the value of the numbers in any chart, one really has to consider the accuracy of the source of that data and confounding factors.  In my opinion, knowing that some cases of which I was aware (noted above) are not included in the numbers and understanding the limitations of relying upon self-reporting, I would be hesitant to accept the statistics presented in the Miami Herald chart as a comprehensive and accurate assessment of the Covid-19 situation aboard cruise ships. 

 

I understand that others may disagree.

[latserrof]

10 hours ago, joeyancho said:

Those same "idiots " take cruises.

Aren't they the ones with their feet on the chairs?

[latserrof]

20 hours ago, ukbecky said:

 

The whole point of my post was that cruising is not "uniquely life-threatening". That people get sick, always have, for all kinds of reasons.

But if those people "get sick" on a cruise ship with Covid-19, they may face being stuck at sea with thousands of other potentially infected people for who-knows-how-long with extremely limited medical treatment available. (And even if they don't get sick, they still may be unexpectedly stuck).  I can think of no parallels, not even prisons.

Edited April 29, 2020 by latserrof

[hamrag]

11 hours ago, Sand and Seas said:

On the ship employees are following everyone around and wiping down the surfaces several times a day.

 

In response to the above, you wrote the following, and I responded as pasted:

 

10 hours ago, pcakes122 said:

 It didn't help me. 😉

6 hours ago, hamrag said:

You can't possibly know that for sure. 😉

 

In response to my point that you couldn't possibly know for sure that wiping down surfaces several times a day didn't help you (i.e. you may have caught it through droplets from an infected person!), you posted quite the rant....key areas extracted below:

 

6 hours ago, pcakes122 said:

It boggles my mind that people just don't seem to get it. Whether I contracted it on the ship or not has no bearing on whether or not cruising is safe.....

 

Believe me I get it, perhaps you should read some of my posts during the past few weeks!

 

5 hours ago, pcakes122 said:

....However, according to your theory that I contracted it before getting on the ship, I was walking around unknowingly with a LIVE virus.  I handled my luggage and passed it to a porter who then touched other people's luggage. I spent at least a half-hour in the Haven check-in lounge before having lunch in the Haven Restaurant. I probably touched dozens of surfaces along the way and there was absolutely no NCL employee following me with a bottle of disinfectant.  (By the way, during my sailing NCL was on high sanitation alert.) 

 

My theory??!!.....you just made that up, read my responses again and what you had posted prior to the responses!

 

Quote

 

.....The danger in cruising is being in close proximity to thousands of other people who you have no idea where they have been or whether or not they are infected.....

 

Indeed, and anyone who hasn't worked that out either has been absent from planet earth....or, hasn't been watching or listening! 

 

Quote

 

.....This is a highly contagious disease and that's just a reality even if you don't want to accept it....

 

 

Indeed, we already know that! 😉

 

Edited April 29, 2020 by hamrag

[podgeandrodge]

My view (as posted on another thread).  I'm sure plenty will disagree, others maybe agree.  It's the nature of the unknown at this time.

 

As restrictions inevitably get withdrawn (they are mainly to flatten the curve to allow health systems cope as we all know), people will need to live with the virus and, hopefully, live with it together with treatments (rather than vaccine) being available if they fall ill.  With social distancing, community transfer was reasonably low.  When restrictions lift, transmission will increase, so combined with restriction lifting, the potential for mandatory wearing of masks and other precautions will likely happen.  

 

I think cruise lines will sail again when the treatment becomes available (hopefully later this year) so that in the event of asymptomatic transmission occurring, which is hopefully not as regular as being sneezed/coughed on, any cases can be treated without it becoming a disaster as it was a few months ago when there was no treatment.

 

Anyway, that's how I see it playing out.  Humans have to live with the virus, business must start up again, and a treatment is all that really stops that at this point in time.  Only other thought is that 'elderly' or 'vulnerable' people may have to make their own minds in terms of their risk appetite on doing things like eating out/cruising etc.  The world cannot stay in permanent lock down to protect the vulnerable forever unfortunately. 

[EscapeFromConnecticut]

On 4/29/2020 at 8:17 AM, ECCruise said:

I think it needs to be said that 65 deaths is not inconsequential or good news because the number is supposedly low.

They were involved in an entirely unnecessary pursuit--cruising.  They literally did not need to die. 

At this point that is hindsight, obviously.  Many did not factor in the risk before they sailed because it was so early.  But since thread is concerned with the future of cruising in 2020,  everyone who cruises now IS aware of the dangers, or should be.

Having been on a cruise that was affected (6 ports cancelled at the last minute, our disembarkation port refusing to allow us to disembark) I would be reluctant (at best) to board another ship in this time frame. 

 

Your point that "everyone who cruises now IS aware of the dangers, or should be" is exactly on point.

On a much more significant scale, it also speaks to why the cruise lines are not trying to challenge the CDC No Sail Order - either in court or in the court of public opinion. Because they know it would be a disaster if they won ... and got to sail ... and then were abruptly back to radioing the Coast Guard and the nearest port, begging for humanitarian relief, medical assistance, etc.

The CDC has made clear that it won't allow another round of that madness: The cruise lines will have to be self-sufficient.
    (An especially excellent idea for foreign-flagged, for-profit corporations that sell non-essential products).

So the CDC and the Coast Guard will keep cruise ships in long-term parking ... but the even bigger challenge is the court system. The legal teams at CCL, RCI and Norwegian cannot envision a worse nightmare than trying to defend the flood of lawsuits if a cruise ship sailed this spring or summer & had a COVID-19 outbreak. 

Indeed, we can all envision that one of the first lines of the plaintiffs' complaint would be nearly identical to your sentence: Every corporation that sails cruise ships now IS aware of the dangers, or should be.

 

[onetimearoundtheworld]

57 minutes ago, EscapeFromConnecticut said:

The CDC has made clear that it won't allow another round of that madness: The cruise lines will have to be self-sufficient.
    (An especially excellent idea for foreign-flagged, for-profit corporations that sell non-essential products).

 

That will be really fun to see when that stays after the pandemic is over. I would love to see that, no more medical emergencies, missed ports for medical evacs, ...

Be careful what you wish for. But if that would mean some itineraries don't look like a floating nursing home I would be okay with that

[EscapeFromConnecticut]

13 minutes ago, onetimearoundtheworld said:

 

That will be really fun to see when that stays after the pandemic is over. I would love to see that, no more medical emergencies, missed ports for medical evacs, ...

Be careful what you wish for. But if that would mean some itineraries don't look like a floating nursing home I would be okay with that

   
   For a long-term, post-pandemic situation, my best guess is that either fares will go up significantly or cruisers will be required to buy evac insurance.  
    For the foreseeable future, though, I think the CDC (as well as its counterparts in other countries) will want to ensure no replay of Princess and HAL execs in Florida ports ... playing traffic cop to park a line of ships arriving with patients, quarantine-bound possible patients, desperate near-death patients and perhaps a few bodies. That was the absolute low point of CCL's existence, and no port, city or nation is going to allow that again. 

[hamrag]

4 hours ago, podgeandrodge said:

....As restrictions inevitably get withdrawn (they are mainly to flatten the curve to allow health systems cope as we all know), people will need to live with the virus and, hopefully, live with it together with treatments (rather than vaccine) being available if they fall ill....  

 

I think cruise lines will sail again when the treatment becomes available (hopefully later this year) so that in the event of asymptomatic transmission occurring, which is hopefully not as regular as being sneezed/coughed on, any cases can be treated without it becoming a disaster as it was a few months ago when there was no treatment....

 

The difficulty I have with your theory, regarding 'treatments' (assuming the remdesivir drug) is the fact it clearly does not prevent death....its headline claim to fame is that median recovery time reduces by 31% from 15 days to 11 days. But, it has no effect on those who don't recover and, for that reason, I do not believe cruising will resume during 2020.

[Newleno]

On 4/29/2020 at 7:22 AM, ukbecky said:

The numbers of DEATHS do not lie. So, no, I don't think I am "kidding myself", or that cruising(or any travel) is life-threatening for the average person.

Actually they kind of do, there is a difference of dying with the wuhan virus or dying from the wuhan virus.  So many numbers are being thrown around out there (it will take time to sort everything out), one day masks dont help, the next day they do, etc...

[Dlarruso]

The way the Cruise industry handled this on the front end leads me to believe that they will open the very second that ports are open and there are no government restrictions on them sailing.  I don't believe the industry cares about any other metrics related to COVID-19.  As long as the logistics of staffing and supply stocking are in place they will sail in 2020. That's my opinion.

[mking8288]

With most of the 100,000 cruise ship crew members still stranded onboard ships, repatriating and finding a way to get them home in May remained an impossible mission - see this article. 

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/tourism-cruises/article242380421.html

 

Recruiting and signing on new crews on contracts might not be as easy as in the past. Here is an article of the future of travel & cruising (last section) as we've come to know it - with a fresh look of the new normal. 

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/experts-predict-how-coronavirus-will-change-travel_l_5ea208bfc5b669fd8921b59c

[seaman11]

30 minutes ago, Dlarruso said:

The way the Cruise industry handled this on the front end leads me to believe that they will open the very second that ports are open and there are no government restrictions on them sailing.  I don't believe the industry cares about any other metrics related to COVID-19.  As long as the logistics of staffing and supply stocking are in place they will sail in 2020. That's my opinion.

i agree, it should happen this summer in a few ports , barring any covid setbacks. 

[david_sobe]

The United States has 4% of the world population yet we have 26% of all Covid-19 deaths.  We are doing something wrong.

[seaman11]

Just now, david_sobe said:

The United States has 4% of the world population yet we have 26% of all Covid-19 deaths.  We are doing something wrong.

we got a late start, didnt take it serious enough in the beginning. 

[Newleno]

11 minutes ago, david_sobe said:

The United States has 4% of the world population yet we have 26% of all Covid-19 deaths.  We are doing something wrong.

I concur globalism has benefits but also negative characteristics, the same goes for human rights, although I believe human rights are important, some do not.  In addition once again I would not take any numbers given at this point of time as fact, it is just raw data that needs to be analyzed and vetted.

Edited April 30, 2020 by Newleno