Carnival to Dump Six Ships

[Captain_Morgan]

3 hours ago, bee-ess said:

I think that from Carnival's perspective the amount of on-board spent generated by the bigger ships must be a big factor. Apart from the fact that the larger ships carry more passengers I would think that the amount of spend per person is probably higher than on the smaller ships. On the larger ships there are more opportunities to spend with more eating venues and especially so when the 2 Gala class ships are part of the fleet and I also think that they sell more £40pppd drinks packages on the larger family ships than the smaller ships. We went on Oceana in Feb and did not see people spending in the bars like we do on Britannia in the Caribbean.

 

You've hit the nail on the head here as I've spoken to many senior managers on the ships we've sailed across a variety of brands and they've more or less all said the same thing.

When comparing large (3000+ pax) ships to smaller (1800+ pax) ships the larger inevitably generate more onboard revenues for the obvious reasons of having more bodies, but more importantly because they tend to do shorter cruises where the unconscious pressure is on people to spend because they have a limited amount of time, hence the reason there is typically a sea day before turnaround for all the last minute buying, whereas the long drawn out trips lull people into a sense of feeling no pressure to do anything apart from eat and sleep.

 

Naturally this is not an absolute concept across all ships/brands, but there is a reason for example that Princess has done away with 2/3 of their small R-class ships which typically did longer cruises and replaced them with massive ships doing the bog standard 7 day runs.  As it relates to P&O, we had a conversation with a manager onboard last year who said specifically that long trans-Atlantic cruises to the Caribbean and back from Southampton might cost more in the initial fare, but the majority of people once onboard barely spend anything, whereas a trip down to the Canaries or a quick run around the Med will be a guaranteed revenue generator every time.

[DamianG]

I have no idea of numbers but there seemed to be plenty of families with the drinks package on our Canaries cruise last August. The previous year we were on a Mediterranean cruise calling at Cadiz, Barcelona, Monte Carlo, Livorno, Civitavecchia, Cartagena and Gibraltar. We don't use the central pool area much but when we did it was noticeable that the same families were sat in the same places every day, usually having drinks (no matter what time we passed through). I'm pretty sure that for those people the ship was the holiday (resort) with no chance of them getting off in some of the ports so I think it would be fair to say that the drinks packages were cost effective for them. 

 

It also brings to mind some comments where posters say that they wouldn't bother going ashore in (say) Gibraltar and would rather enjoy the peace and quiet on the ship. That certainly wasn't the case on our cruise, there were probably more stayed on board in Civitavecchia, Livorno and Gibraltar than got off. Never mind though, we had lovely days ashore in Civitavecchia and Livorno with no hanging around for shuttle buses.

Edited June 20, 2020 by DamianG

[jeanlyon]

15 nights in the Med for £3799.  I don't think so.  That's the cheapest on Saga.  £250 per night - no way.  Drinks and insurance included, so for us about £700.  We don't do excursions so that's of no use.  It's mega money. 

 

That was the cheapest too.  The others are about £4K pp.

Edited June 20, 2020 by jeanlyon

[Eddie99]

I thought that first of all but so much is included I think it might be rather nice to go knowing that, if you choose, you can do anything you want on board, eat where you will, enjoy any beverages Plus - taxi to & fro the port, insurance, gratuities, some excursions, all included.

The Eastern Med Oct 21, going as far as Istanbul, sounds great

 

However - the brand new ship had terrible Noro problems before lockdown.  Doesn’t inspire confidence

[davecttr]

I am pining for the fjords, should have returned from north cape yesterday. So i took a deeper look at Saga. Over £3000 for a single balcony on their newest ship, that is for 7 nights.. It is a boutique ship ( if it gets completed on time) and there is lots of passenger space. However, it seems their 7 nighters to Norway include an overnight stay in either Geiranger or Flam. I don't think there will be much of a pulsating night life or even much to do at all. I also checked P&O, OK it is Iona but a select fare double balcony for single occupancy can be had for less than £2000 and the deposit is less than £100. I might just try P&O

Edited June 20, 2020 by davecttr

[jeanlyon]

Sorry, but even with all the inclusions, and I wouldn't want a chauffeur from home, nor excursions, so the only things I can include are insurance and drinks.  It's still way above what we would pay, but then all cabins are balconies which would explain it.

 

P&O will still be OK for me until they get rid of Aurora and Arcadia, then we will have a rethink.

[davecttr]

34 minutes ago, jeanlyon said:

Sorry, but even with all the inclusions, and I wouldn't want a chauffeur from home, nor excursions, so the only things I can include are insurance and drinks.  It's still way above what we would pay, but then all cabins are balconies which would explain it.

 

P&O will still be OK for me until they get rid of Aurora and Arcadia, then we will have a rethink.

Apparently the only free drinks are house wines at meals. The £90 OBC from P&O will go a long way to paying for my booze. Since lockdown began I have consumed one can of beer and a tin of G&T, not missing it either.

[Eddie99]

Not sure about that

How does this read to you?  Seem to be lots of drinks, to me 

https://travel.saga.co.uk/cruises/ocean.aspx

 

I notice ‘coronavirus cancellation now included’ - I’ll have to go back and read that

[No pager thank you]

5 minutes ago, majortom10 said:

But you are failing to account for other drinks that are available with the drinks package so would be even more beneficial. One thing I think is for certain that drinks prices in the bars will increase over next 12 months or so and if they become anywhere near the prices of drinks on Cunard/Princess then if drinks package price stays at £40pppd everybody will be buying it.

I think that, to form a realistic comparison, you must also consider as follows to be honest:

 

-- At breakfast, your tea / coffee is complimentary, so no charge.  It is also healthy to hydrate with water - again no charge.

-- Passengers retain the flexibility around in cabin alcohol consumption, to a point.  Again, no charge.

-- Also, passengers have the ability to bring non alcoholic beverages back on to the cruise at any port for in cabin consumption - reduce cost considerably, particularly for families.

-- On P&O, a non alcoholic drink from the selection (particularly because non premium brands are excluded) costs between £2 and £4 typically, maybe more if you include non alcoholic cocktails.  Similar for coffees. 

-- Many alcoholic premium drinks are excluded from the P&O package.

 

I think that you have to ask yourself - how many drinks are you likely to consume on average, particularly on a port heavy cruise?  You are looking at ten to "break even" and bear in mind the 15 alcoholic drinks is a cap (not that I would try it).

 

Realistically, all told, I would in total consume around - at most - 1/2 of the drinks package price a day; just don't see my route to £40.  Poor value for my money.  Going back to Fred for a non Carnival example, the same package is £19 per day (more realistic), not £40.  

 

If P&O double the price of the drinks, then I wouldn't travel - not because drinks are the only part of a holiday, far from it - merely the product doesn't warrant the price and I won't be ripped off.

 

Again, just a personal opinion, but I would be very surprised to see the market switch to tolerating that on P&O. More likely - gradually - P&O will fall in line with TUI et al and you will have an all inclusive headline price, with possibly a soft drink/hot drink alternative, and lot part of a brand split (big v small ship).

[No pager thank you]

4 hours ago, molecrochip said:

They were introduced as it gave P&O something to offer as an incentive.

 

Most other lines offer an all inclusive promotion at some point. A lot of customers see it as good value if free and it’s a good extra for a slow selling cruise.

 

It gave P&O the flexibility to, on occasion, target the all inclusive market.

Thanks for your reply.

 

I would imagine that, if a drinks package was subsidised (or offered free) as an alternative perk with a Select Fare then this may be attractive to some customers who take OBC.  Usually the car parking or transfers are worth more, but that's a different topic.

 

However, I don't recall that P&O have ever moved in this direction yet, even pre pandemic with Saver or Late Deal style fares.  This could be part of the strategy to tempt the reluctant new to cruising market back, when the industry restarts in earnest.

 

Personally, I don't see that the design of the drinks package works in its current form, and wouldn't draw me to P&O versus comparable offers, but that's just a personal opinion.  I always share that feedback when I receive a form 😉

 

To me, P&O is stronger in other areas, like it's MDR standard dining offer, standards of its cabin/public areas, general ambience on the whole.  On choice / range of drinks it is excellent.

[molecrochip]

I think they were bedding it in last year and expected to offer such a promotion this year, bonus OBS or free drinks.

Its a way of keeping the price at a certain point but increasing the value. Obviously world events took over.
 

There is also a strong view that some families budget to afford an inclusive holiday paid before they go so that they don’t have to worry about a big bill at the end.

[No pager thank you]

Just now, molecrochip said:

I think they were bedding it in last year and expected to offer such a promotion this year, bonus OBS or free drinks.

Its a way of keeping the price at a certain point but increasing the value. Obviously world events took over.
 

There is also a strong view that some families budget to afford an inclusive holiday paid before they go so that they don’t have to worry about a big bill at the end.

Yes, it will be interesting to see the strategy for 2021/22 on this front as you describe.

 

With families, Marella is often seen as a strong competitor to P&O.  A family of four, with younger children, taking a two week holiday could be spending around £1300 on this and if they budget in advance - the cost is stark.  

 

Marella certainly builds in a premium in to its base price - but not sure this much on average - say £500-600+ per adult, assuming some discounted child fares?

 

Personally, I'm not a fan of Marella, but TUI is a go to beach holiday brand with read across for people branching in to a cruise holiday for the first time.

 

[jeanlyon]

If all else fails, we will drive to the South of France like we used to and have a beach and culture holiday there.  In fact, I'm quite looking forward to it.

[AchileLauro]

15 minutes ago, No pager thank you said:

Yes, it will be interesting to see the strategy for 2021/22 on this front as you describe.

 

With families, Marella is often seen as a strong competitor to P&O.  A family of four, with younger children, taking a two week holiday could be spending around £1300 on this and if they budget in advance - the cost is stark.  

 

Marella certainly builds in a premium in to its base price - but not sure this much on average - say £500-600+ per adult, assuming some discounted child fares?

 

Personally, I'm not a fan of Marella, but TUI is a go to beach holiday brand with read across for people branching in to a cruise holiday for the first time.

 

Our last cruise was on Marella Dream in December and it was a very enjoyable holiday, If only the pools had been heated it would have been perfect. The dining arrangements and meals were excellent and the entertainment every bit as good as or even better than some of the acts we have experienced on P&O.

My wife does not drink alcohol and I only drink a couple of glasses of wine or a couple of pints of an evening when on holiday, so we didn't take full advantage of the all inclusive drinks package. Yes it may be an older ship but internally it was far nicer than many of the more glitzy modern ships. It was a lovely relaxing holiday and less formal than we are used to with P&O.

Edited June 20, 2020 by AchileLauro

[Britboys]

8 hours ago, No pager thank you said:

I couldn't recommend Marella Discovery - we sailed on her to Norway, never again, and the passenger service at Newcastle was really poor.

 

The food was awful - I mean 2* hotel level.  Having the same frozen foods in the speciality restaurants day after day.  I paid on several occasions to eat off the ship in Norway!

 

Entertainment and AI package were much better than P&O (neither difficult) and staff friendlier and whole atmosphere less stuffy too.  Interior / Decor not up to scratch though.  But we couldn't get past the food.

I had a very similar experience on Discovery 2 two years ago. Worst food I have had on a cruise. Entertainment hit & miss. Poor interiors - including those recently refurbished.

[wowzz]

6 hours ago, jeanlyon said:

15 nights in the Med for £3799.  I don't think so.  That's the cheapest on Saga.  £250 per night - no way.  Drinks and insurance included, so for us about £700.  We don't do excursions so that's of no use.  It's mega money. 

 

That was the cheapest too.  The others are about £4K pp.

We have a 7 day cruise booked on Spirit of Adventure at the end of March. Cost is £3000 for two of us, in a mid range balcony cabin, that is the equivalent of a mini suite on P&O.

We don't have to drive or stay over night, so that saves us £200. All drinks at all times are free - without being an alcoholic,  this will save us £400. Hopefully we will have a couple of speciality meals at no cost - a saving of another £100. 

So, we will have a mini suite in a brand new ship, with only 1000 pax,  for just over £2000, or £1000 pp. 

If you want a cheap inside cabin, you dont drink, and you live south of the M4,  yes, of course P&O will be cheaper, but for everyone else P&O are pricing themselves out of the market.

 

Edited June 20, 2020 by wowzz

[davecttr]

8 hours ago, wowzz said:

We have a 7 day cruise booked on Spirit of Adventure at the end of March. Cost is £3000 for two of us, in a mid range balcony cabin, that is the equivalent of a mini suite on P&O.

We don't have to drive or stay over night, so that saves us £200. All drinks at all times are free - without being an alcoholic,  this will save us £400. Hopefully we will have a couple of speciality meals at no cost - a saving of another £100. 

So, we will have a mini suite in a brand new ship, with only 1000 pax,  for just over £2000, or £1000 pp. 

If you want a cheap inside cabin, you dont drink, and you live south of the M4,  yes, of course P&O will be cheaper, but for everyone else P&O are pricing themselves out of the market.

 

I would check that again, I was looking at Saga yesterday and their site said the free drinks were restricted to house wines with meals, Also only one? of the speciality restaurants was complimentary. What really put me off was the overnight stop in Geiranger/Flam, nothing to do there I reckon, especially as the ship leaves at 8am!

[wowzz]

43 minutes ago, davecttr said:

I would check that again, I was looking at Saga yesterday and their site said the free drinks were restricted to house wines with meals, Also only one? of the speciality restaurants was complimentary. What really put me off was the overnight stop in Geiranger/Flam, nothing to do there I reckon, especially as the ship leaves at 8am!

Not sure where you looked, but the Saga web site clearly states that all drinks are free at all times in all venues, and that there is no supplement for speciality dining venues. Our cruise doesn't go to Flam, so not bothered about the overnight stop.

https://travel.saga.co.uk/cruises/ocean/find-your-cruise/all-inclusive.aspx

Edited June 21, 2020 by wowzz

[wowzz]

13 hours ago, davecttr said:

The £90 OBC from P&O will go a long way to paying for my booze

That's only 4 bottles of wine!

[Selbourne]

On 6/19/2020 at 3:43 PM, molecrochip said:

Carnival are disposing if ships that will cost more to lay up / maintain / bring back & operate than they believe is financially viable. Some were already due to leave anyhow but are now going quicker.

Carnival are exiting ships they don’t want. With all the deliveries on the books, this is still a net increase in worldwide cross-brand fleet.

 

People are loyal. Buy CMV, buy another chunk of loyal customers.

I’m struggling to follow the logic as to why P&O should buy CMV. It makes no sense to me. All cruise lines will face an over capacity issue after this crisis and that situation is likely to continue for some years, so holding on to existing fleets will be enough of a challenge, let alone expanding. P&O has historically modelled itself as a mid-market operator that buys new ships every 5 years or so and keeps them for around 20 years. CMV has always been more mass market and buys ships that are already very old and runs them until end of life (as cruise ships). In recent years, P&O has abandoned its mid market position and has moved at a rate of knots to a mass market one. On that basis, it would make more sense for them to let CMV go to the wall. I would think that any CMV customers who still wish to cruise post pandemic are more likely to move to P&O than any other cruise line, primarily due to price and brand positioning. Even the oldest P&O ships are newer and have better facilities than the newest CMV ones and picking up some CMV passengers could be very helpful in addressing P&O’s over capacity issue. With the time it will take for the cruise market to fully recover to pre pandemic levels, I would think that picking up passengers from the ‘casualty’ lines would make much more sense to P&O than buying ancient ships and giving them even more capacity to have to deal with.  

[davecttr]

1 hour ago, wowzz said:

Not sure where you looked, but the Saga web site clearly states that all drinks are free at all times in all venues, and that there is no supplement for speciality dining venues. Our cruise doesn't go to Flam, so not bothered about the overnight stop.

https://travel.saga.co.uk/cruises/ocean/find-your-cruise/all-inclusive.aspx

Oops, got that wrong 😵

[No pager thank you]

50 minutes ago, Selbourne said:

I’m struggling to follow the logic as to why P&O should buy CMV. It makes no sense to me. All cruise lines will face an over capacity issue after this crisis and that situation is likely to continue for some years, so holding on to existing fleets will be enough of a challenge, let alone expanding. P&O has historically modelled itself as a mid-market operator that buys new ships every 5 years or so and keeps them for around 20 years. CMV has always been more mass market and buys ships that are already very old and runs them until end of life (as cruise ships). In recent years, P&O has abandoned its mid market position and has moved at a rate of knots to a mass market one. On that basis, it would make more sense for them to let CMV go to the wall. I would think that any CMV customers who still wish to cruise post pandemic are more likely to move to P&O than any other cruise line, primarily due to price and brand positioning. Even the oldest P&O ships are newer and have better facilities than the newest CMV ones and picking up some CMV passengers could be very helpful in addressing P&O’s over capacity issue. With the time it will take for the cruise market to fully recover to pre pandemic levels, I would think that picking up passengers from the ‘casualty’ lines would make much more sense to P&O than buying ancient ships and giving them even more capacity to have to deal with.  

Good morning Selbourne,

 

Let's assume for a moment that CMV collapses in to administration.  In theory, a great opportunity for any line to acquire some of the better ships from the fleet at a basement price.

 

I don't think that it automatically follows that CMV will flock to P&O - Costa and MSC (standard) are both lower price than P&O.  P&O has a higher quality product than CMV, so not an automatic match. 

 

Also, if CMV customers are not prepared to travel on the likes of Azura, Ventura, Britannia, Iona, or Gala 2 - either because of the size of ship, or the excess price, then it is possible that Arcadia and Aurora will have insufficient capacity, given that they are already popular with P&O regulars, some of whom have similar feelings.  This assumes Oceana leave the fleet.  On occasions these smaller ships already have higher fare costs - when on Discovery routes or unusual itineraries, as the market will tolerate this.

 

Therefore, whilst no one will buy Marco Polo (one would have thought), other CMV vessels may be attractive as a "stop gap" to differentiate P&O's brand / offer between traditional cruising and more family orientated / increasingly American design on the larger lines.  This is particularly because Carnival is unlikely to build smaller new ships (1500-2500 pax) as new commissions.

 

On the other hand, if Carnival insist on gradually upscaling the size of P&O ships to the detriment of Oceana, Arcadia and Aurora (eventually) as they think that traditional cruisers will eventually make the switch to larger ships too (a very unpopular move on here), then they will let CMV go bust.

[zap99]

48 minutes ago, davecttr said:

Oops, got that wrong 😵

If you bump into Wowzz on a SAGA cruise, you owe him a pint.😂

[Son of Anarchy]

23 minutes ago, No pager thank you said:

Therefore, whilst no one will buy Marco Polo (one would have thought),

 

Poor old Marco Polo.  I always remember her as Alexander Pushkin.  Chugged back from Leningrad to Tilbury on her a couple of times back in the day.  And her sister Mikhail Lermontov, currently on the seabed off the coast of New Zealand.  I used to think those ships were posh - they had lifts!

[molecrochip]

If CMV were to fail, an administrator can pick and choose what he sells to maximise the return available. In the same way, Carnival could come along and offer to project voyages if it can buy the biggest two ships, maybe some IP or the name. It doesn't have to buy what it doesn't want.

 

Where things get 'clever' is if same Carnival teamed up with Fred to launch a joint bid for most of the assets with a pre-agreed split of who gets what afterwards. This is attractive to an administrator as it maximises return.