Its time to move on from 2020

[Milwaukee Eight]

Florida ICU bed availability has increased. This is a good trend. 
 

https://bi.ahca.myflorida.com/t/ABICC/views/Public/ICUBedsCounty?%3AisGuestRedirectFromVizportal=y&%3Aembed=y

[logan25]

37 minutes ago, Iamcruzin said:

With all this talk of herd immunity are any of you volunteering to get sick and passing it on?  

We call that “ripping off the bandaid”.

[soremekun]

I've moved on from 2020.  My remaining 2020 cruises have been moved to 2021.  I'm glad I was able to sail at least once this year.

[boatseller]

20 hours ago, Baron Barracuda said:

 

NYC healthcare capacity in April was severely strained.  Crisis was mostly felt in outer boroughs, not Manhattan.  Manhattan has only 25%  of NYC population and many large hospitals.  NY Times gave much coverage to what Elmhurst hospital in Queens went through (no link because paid site).  Javits Center and hospital ship were originally restricted to non-covid patients which were few.  Even when It began accepting Covid patients  Javits Center proved inadequate, lacking ICU and ventilators.  Here's an article on the situation:

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/why-nycs-largest-emergency-hospital-javits-center-pretty-much-empty-2020-4

Did you provide the correct link?  That article describes how the Javits Field Hospital went large unused.  It was deployed specifically for C19 patients.  Being dismantled due to lack of use indicates healthcare capacity, even in New York is not stressed.

[CruisingNole]

40 minutes ago, soremekun said:

I've moved on from 2020.  My remaining 2020 cruises have been moved to 2021.  I'm glad I was able to sail at least once this year.

 

I am in the process of finalizing a "list and shift" for a December 2020 voyage on Oasis. Moving it to Thanksgiving 2021.

 

Even if cruising is resumed by December (I highly doubt it will), the cruise lines will need time to "work out the kinks" (to put it lightly) with all of the new regulations. I'm not particularly interested in being a test subject.

 

Here's to a better year in 2021.

[boatseller]

20 hours ago, fisherguy said:

 

 

And before you extol Canada, Europe, Singapore or Taiwan, keep in mind, 6-9 months from now, they still be lauding themselves for how well they're handling it while the US, Sweden and maybe even Mexico will be done, over and uncanceled.  There is no guarantee of an effective vaccine so the faster we get to herd immunity, the sooner grandma can come out of hiding.

 

 

Trying to achieve herd immunity without a vaccine is extremely reckless since there is no guarantee that it exists and still some uncertainty as to what the side effects are.  Vaccines are intended to achieve herd immunity in a safe and controlled way which is why its been difficult to find one since finding a way to produce a vaccine to create anti bodies to combat C19 while minimizing the side effects is proving to be challenging.  Given the prospects that we may never find one, we can only hope to flatten the curve and keep it under control.  H1N1 was a virus that comparatively infected very few around the world.  No herd immunity was ever achieved nor was there a vaccine for it.  It was controlled and eventually became a non factor.  Not saying it will happen with C19 to that extent but there has been no credible evidence so far that people that have had C19 and recovered can become contagious again.  So in theory, yes.

 

As for cruising,  until we get things under control globally, I'm afraid its not going to happen, at least with the type of cruising that we here are accustomed to.  Smaller cruises on smaller ships in countries that are doing well are possible (some have already started up).

 

Lockdowns were never meant to be forever.  The strategy was to flatten the curve, get infections under control, open up the economy again in a safe and controlled manner.  Here in BC, we have been in Phase 3 of opening up the economy for a couple of weeks now.  Tested daily infections went from an average of 8 to about 12 to 14.  This was expected as the level of contact increased.  Our infection % to tested is still hovering around 1% which is acceptable to our Health Officer.  Mask use and social distancing compliance is at a all time low since the end of March much to the concerns of some of us here (entirely due to complacency, not defiance).  But it doesn't seem to be costing us since our risk levels are low.  Small outbreaks here and there are easily detected and controlled through contact tracing which would be almost impossible to do if your infections are approaching 10,000 per day and 30% positive to tested.  Time will tell but so far its been working.  

 

How cruising factors into this is anyone's guess.  I love cruising just as much as anyone here and have had many brainstorming sessions in my head to figure out how to provide a cruising experience safely while dealing with C19.  It is not the job of CDC or any other health authority to figure this out for the Cruise Industry.  They must do this on their own given the set of guidelines that are applicable to every other business out there.

 

Thanks for the discussion and I hope we all can start cruising again in the not so distant future.

I understand the frustration you feel at when people chose strategies you don't agree with, especially when your predicted outcome does not manifest and they are left in better position.  As we are headed here in Florida.

 

Over the last three months, treatment plans for C19 have improved greatly and the profile of positive cases has shifted to the point where even just confirmed cases and losses are diverging.  Add to that the substantially higher, possibly by a factor of 10, unconfirmed cases and the situation is not getting worse.

 

I've very sorry your leadership has chosen to make policy on a mostly irrelevant metric.  Number of 'confirmed' cases is practically meaningless since testing is voluntary.  Here in Florida, discussion of the 'spike' is always followed by a summary of healthcare capacity which is not under stress.  There is ample capacity statewide in beds and even more so with equipment.

 

There is nothing at all 'reckless' about achieving Herd Immunity.  Consider, why is 10,000 'cases' over 1 vs 5 days better or worse.  The same number of people are infected.  Long term, 10,000 people recovering now vs 6 months from now is actually a more desirable outcome.

 

Again, I'm very sorry reality has to conflict with your narrative, but there is no chance of controlling this virus now and there never was.  The moment the first untraceable case was detected in Washington, the only mission was management, not containment.  We now know C19 had been in circulation for weeks, possibility months before detection, meaning there may never have even been a containment window.  Contact tracing is will have no measurable effect due to overwhelming prevalence.

 

Florida and some other States are looking forward to ending the pandemic comparatively early and while I wouldn't even begin to predict Canadian travel restrictions, I would still welcome your to our cruise port to escape the restrictions other places will still be under.

[boatseller]

11 hours ago, cured said:

Herd immunity does not work. Look at Sweden's results.

Vaccines create Herd Immunity.  And it takes time.  Anyone fretting that it hasn't happened in 3 months is paying attention to the wrong sources.

[Iamcruzin]

38 minutes ago, CruisingNole said:

 

I am in the process of finalizing a "list and shift" for a December 2020 voyage on Oasis. Moving it to Thanksgiving 2021.

 

Even if cruising is resumed by December (I highly doubt it will), the cruise lines will need time to "work out the kinks" (to put it lightly) with all of the new regulations. I'm not particularly interested in being a test subject.

 

Here's to a better year in 2021.

I couldn't agree more. I'm more concerned about the new normal cruise experience than I am about a covid outbreak. At least I know what to expect if there is an outbreak on board.

[TheMastodon]

Earliest I am booked right now is  April 2022.  Rest of this year and I expect most of next year will be a no go for cruising w/ the CDC.  Best case scenario IMO is the vaccine is ready for public early 2021 (Fauci is optimistic) & cruises will do a soft relaunch mid to late 2021.  The vaccine is mostly effective and saves VENERABLE lives and helps better protect us all.  By then, I would assume 3-5/10 American citizens has had COVID and recovered (CDC estimates 1/10 have had it thus far)  and if you had the vaccine into the mix we are in good shape w/ herd immunity.  At this point (mid 2021), I would hope the CDC has a better understanding of the virus and its behavior so we can conduct life in a more calculated manner during a pandemic.  In the meantime we all can make changes in our lives to better enhance our chances of surviving a future pandemic.  Loose weight, exercise, eat better, quit smoking, drink water and practice good hygiene.  

 

Furthermore - booking a 2020/2021 cruise during a GLOBAL PANDEMIC where things change daily is on you - not me.  Don't complain about not getting a refund in a timely manner.  

 

 

 

 

[Baron Barracuda]

3 hours ago, boatseller said:

Did you provide the correct link?  That article describes how the Javits Field Hospital went large unused.  It was deployed specifically for C19 patients.  Being dismantled due to lack of use indicates healthcare capacity, even in New York is not stressed.

 

Javits was not originally intended for Covid.  
Due to under-utilization they later tried to use for some covid but Javits lacked ICU equipment to treat the very ill.  Also requirements for transferring patients to Javits were very restrictive.  NY Times had some excellent coverage, but paid site.  

 

From article:

 

Narrator: With thousands more beds slated to be built in the coming weeks, many believed Javits would be the saving grace overcrowded hospitals in Manhattan so desperately needed. But it wasn't as helpful as everyone had hoped. It was originally meant to handle non-COVID-19 patients.

Brandt: The thing is, nobody's leaving their house right now, right? So there are very few non-COVID-related illnesses and injuries. the center was sitting empty while hospital hallways So were packed with COVID patients because there just wasn't enough room for them.

 

 

 

 

Edited July 6, 2020 by Baron Barracuda

[cured]

2 hours ago, boatseller said:

Vaccines create Herd Immunity.  And it takes time.  Anyone fretting that it hasn't happened in 3 months is paying attention to the wrong sources.

Natural herd immunity is not working.

 

Vaccines do create herd immunity, however that won't be the immediate benefit. With a vaccine, the individual is now protected from catching and shedding the virus. Herd immunity build up will be for those that cannot take the vaccine for medical purposes or the anti-vaxxers.

 

I can definitely see foreign countries require the vaccine before entering their countries. It is not unprecedented. For instance, many countries require proof of yellow fever vaccination if you are traveling from a country at risk of yellow fever.  Consequently, if the US is still showing cases and herd immunity has not been achieved, proof of vaccination could conceivably be required.

 

If required, cruise lines will then have to adjust their policies to coordinate with the ports they plan to visit.  Vaccines may or may not become a requirement to cruise, depending on how many people choose to vaccinate. 

 

However, this is all conjecture and nobody can predict the future and what policies will be.

 

Unrelated, but some good news out of UCSF this week. They published a paper in the journal CELL that reveals that they might have found the treatment for SARS-CoV-2.and that it can be treated with certain existing drugs.  https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200701/Scientists-find-coronavirus-Achilles-heel.aspx

[cured]

On 7/5/2020 at 5:22 AM, momofmab said:

 

100% agree.  Also the kids not being at school, playing sports, etc. - who's advocating for them?  What about the long term effects from isolation and lost-learning?  We're kidding ourselves if we don't think this virus (or a mutation thereof) is going to be a part of our lives for a while.  MAYBE there will be a vaccine available at some point in the next year or two (not months away) and likely the pharm companies will play their game of controlling the quantities and driving up the prices to get it - so we have that to look forward to.

 

We need to cautiously continue to allow businesses & schools to open, with mask & social distance guidelines with the realization that some people will continue to get the virus (with most recovering).  If we choose to leave our homes and go anywhere there are other people, we are accepting the risk that we may get the virus.  If we accept people into our homes that have been places where there are other people, we are accepting the risk that we may get the virus.

 

I wish that the U.S. implemented the mask mandate back in March - then maybe we wouldn't have had to "Lift & Switch" my daughter's fall wedding to late 2021, but unfortunately that didn't happen - and 200+ years of personal freedoms in the U.S. have resulted in large contingencies of citizens now refusing to comply because it infringes on their personal freedom.  The U.S. is its own worst enemy in any attempts to control the pandemic.

How do you social distance in a classroom? Most elementary school classes are upwards of 20 students.  Most typical sized classrooms with desks properly placed can accomodate 8 students. What happens to the other 12+.  Add to that the massive cuts state budgets have suffered due to the virus and that trickles down to the schools. Right now, my district is planning on a partial reopening.

 

Elementary school students will go to school 2 days a week, one day closed for cleaning, the last 2 days of the week the other half of the students will attend.  No bussing at all. Middle school and high school will only have students on campus for short times for necessary labs.  I don't know how working parents are going to accommodate, but it is what has to be done to comply with state and federal guidelines on reopening schools.

 

Here is one of many possible scenarios that could happen with opening schools too early. It is not that easy to just say send kids to school.

 

Ellison Mitchell

July 2 at 7:55 AM

🍏For those of you saying "If essential workers can work, teachers can work, and our kids need to be in school!" I get where you're coming from. I want you to imagine the first day of school.

🍏Kids will get on the bus. They will be packed together, because my district (like many) has ruled that it is too expensive and time-consuming to do staggered bussing. They will be excited to see their friends, and they will talk, share items, and do all the things they missed doing on the bus, and this will be great for their emotional health. Eventually some of them will take off their masks, because one or two kids didn't come with one to begin with, and who's scared of this thing anyway?

 

        And so, before 10am, you have had your first super-spreader event in the district. No, the kids may not all get sick, but a few of them will. A few of those will die, as we've seen in news reports. They probably won't be your child, so this does not matter to you. It is a sacrifice you were prepared to make.

🍏Kids will enter school. If this is done in a staggered manner, we will lose significant instructional time. Kids will sit at their desks, and if they are in a Title I school like mine where most parents can not afford to stay home and support kids during Digital Learning, we will have at least 80% of the population in the classroom. A classroom with truly socially distanced desks can seat about 8 people. Realistically, we will have 25-30 children packed together. Some of them will play with their masks or, if their parents are anti-mask, they will refuse to have those masks on.

🍏A teacher will now have to teach in a classroom where they are no longer allowed to have group activities, so vital for young learners, unless they are in a contactless digital format. Hopefully the school will have enough computers for those students without their own devices. Hopefully the teacher will be able to maneuver quickly enough to stop students from Snapchatting their friends, or logging on to any number of non-educational websites, so that they can do their lesson.

A teacher will also have to choose between instructing effectively and protecting themselves and the people they may care for at home. Proximity is key to classroom management. Social distancing is not compatible with it. Students who do not wear masks may see reduced teacher attention, because again, teachers are being asked to choose between their health and their effectiveness.

🍏Lunchtime arrives. Students have to take their masks off to eat. In my district, we will be eating in classrooms, and my school's windows do not open. Staggered lunches do not help once the masks are off and students are eating and talking and, because they miss their friends, clustering together. A teacher will have to choose between eating, separating students, and their health.

🍏Time to change classes. If students are the ones transitioning, instead of a teacher rotating between classrooms, we lose valuable instructional time to sanitizing. Do we have enough wipes and sprays to sanitize four or more times a day? Hopefully you donated some, because now a teacher may have to choose between their finances and *everyone's* health.

🍏Novel study time. Do we have enough books for 100+ middle schoolers? Don't make me laugh. Every student will need to sanitize before and after touching a book. You won't pay for ebooks and you won't pay for physical books, but we hope you will donate hand sanitizer.

🍏Chorus. Orchestra. Band. These teachers are talking about reducing class sizes to 80+. *Reducing* them. For their safety.

🍏Time to go home. Students get on the bus again. A second super-spreader event occurs across the district.

🍏Now, let's talk about how things go after Day 1:

A child tests positive for COVID-19. The parents fear retaliation from peers and do not report it to the school; they just keep their child at home and hope it blows over.

A child is sick with fever. A parent gives them Tylenol and sends them to school.

A child who interacted with the child whose parents did not report tests positive and parents report this. Students and teachers that interacted with the child have to quarantine for 14 days. That's 14 days of the Digital Learning we were trying to avoid in the first place. In middle school, if a teacher tests positive, that will mean 100+ kids are staying home with parents, and all of their teachers, too. This will happen again and again. All of the promised consistency, routine, structure, everything you wanted for your children, is gone, and you are not prepared to help them with DL.

A child in a community with high COVID-19 exposure becomes sick with MIS-C. More children contract MIS-C. This was a sacrifice you did not realize you were making, but it does not affect your child, so it does not concern you.

🍏Now for the community spread.

The virus will find many opportunities to flourish in a school, no matter how carefully the teachers and staff strive to curb it. The resources simply are not being given to them. Children will spread the virus to parents, siblings, grandparents (especially in multigenerational homes), and inevitably, people who shop and work outside of their homes. The spike we see now, that began in June, will pale in comparison to what follows.

🍏And some teachers, nurses, custodians, and principals will die. But that's a footnote to you; what about the learning outcomes? The academic gains?

Well? What will those be?

--Ellison Mitchell

[cured]

On 7/5/2020 at 6:59 AM, boatseller said:

 

 

So far, while novel, it's just another coronavirus, which humanity has been dealing with forever.  Mutations?  Of course, but this is where a comparison to influenza is not particularly valid as Influenza is know to mutate much faster than other coronaviruses.

 

 

And this is where your scientific theories lose their credibility.

 

This is, in no way shape or form, "just another corona virus."   It is not just a common cold. There are 7 strains of Corona virus, the first 4  includes the common cold and has very mild symptoms. The last 3 are devastating including SARs and MERs viruses, being highly infectious with a high mortality rate.  Covid19 falls into the devastating ones. 

 

Several vaccines are showing initial positive results. For instance, the mRNA (messenger RNA) one, a cutting edge type of vaccine that has never been previously approved,  is showing good promise in the human trials.

 

Just because there is no vaccine for the common cold (no incentive to even look for one with such mild symptoms,) doesn't mean the virus is immune to vaccines.  SARs and MERs vaccines have been previously investigated with some success.

Edited July 6, 2020 by cured

[cured]

3 hours ago, boatseller said:

 

Again, I'm very sorry reality has to conflict with your narrative, but there is no chance of controlling this virus now and there never was. 

Are you an epidemiologist or an engineer working on the virus?  Because this statement is scientifically incorrect.  I suggest cracking open some respected medical journals and see what progress actual scientists are making against the virus.

 

The timeline is still up in the air, but scientists are very optimistic a vaccine can be found. 

 

Would you please list any peer reviewed studies that say a vaccine and effective treatments to stop the spread quickly is impossible?

 

pssst...the latest studies out of UCSF are promising for effective treatment with available drugs (bile cancer drug seems the most promising) that stops the virus dead in its tracks and prevents spread, thus controlling the virus.

 

Safe cruising with controlled or eliminated SARS-CoV-2 will happen.

Edited July 6, 2020 by cured

[boatseller]

1 hour ago, Baron Barracuda said:

 

Javits was not originally intended for Covid.  
 

Well, splitting hairs.  It was switched to a C19 overflow facility upon opening.

[boatseller]

1 hour ago, cured said:

Natural herd immunity is not working.

...yet.

 

It a bit ridiculous to think Herd Immunity can be achieved in 2-3 months.  We're working on it but it still takes time.

[cured]

29 minutes ago, boatseller said:

...yet.

 

It a bit ridiculous to think Herd Immunity can be achieved in 2-3 months.  We're working on it but it still takes time.

Natural Herd immunity is proving hard to achieve in countries that are opting for the herd immunity approach. You don't need years of data, you just have to look at the number of cases and the percentage of patients who attain immunity.  You need 65% to successfully obtain minimum herd immunity.  Right now, in Sweden, the immunity levels of patients is around 7%.

 

Again, scientifically, vaccine herd immunity is not necessary to cruise safely.  Once vaccinated, you are not shedding the virus and you are protected from catching it.  Thus, vaccinated people can safely cruise knowing they will not catch the virus. 

 

Herd immunity has always been necessary to protect the vulnerable in our community, ie those that cannot have the vaccine due to medical reasons, and the uninformed, ie; the anti-vaxxers.  It is not meant to protect the vaccinated.

 

For instance, take schools and a rising problem, measles.  If there is a measle outbreak, those that can prove vaccination and/or a titer to prove immunity, can safely continue to go to school. Those that are not vaccinated and/or have immunity from a previous infection are required to quarantine at home. The vaccinated and/or immune people cannot spread the virus.  Those not vaccinated or immune need to stay home so as not to spread to others not vaccinated or immune.

 

In my school district after the recent measle outbreaks, all staff and students were required to provide proof of measles vaccination or immunity.  Those who are vaccinated will be allowed in the schools if an outbreak occurs and those not vaccinated or immune will need to stay home, staff having to use PTO.  There are no exemptions during an outbreak, at least not in our district.

 

It is the same with SARS-CoV-2. Those vaccinated can safely mingle with each other. Those not vaccinated cannot.  If vaccinated, there will be no worries with cruising.

Edited July 6, 2020 by cured

[fisherguy]

3 hours ago, boatseller said:

I understand the frustration you feel at when people chose strategies you don't agree with, especially when your predicted outcome does not manifest and they are left in better position.  As we are headed here in Florida.

 

Over the last three months, treatment plans for C19 have improved greatly and the profile of positive cases has shifted to the point where even just confirmed cases and losses are diverging.  Add to that the substantially higher, possibly by a factor of 10, unconfirmed cases and the situation is not getting worse.

 

I've very sorry your leadership has chosen to make policy on a mostly irrelevant metric.  Number of 'confirmed' cases is practically meaningless since testing is voluntary.  Here in Florida, discussion of the 'spike' is always followed by a summary of healthcare capacity which is not under stress.  There is ample capacity statewide in beds and even more so with equipment.

 

There is nothing at all 'reckless' about achieving Herd Immunity.  Consider, why is 10,000 'cases' over 1 vs 5 days better or worse.  The same number of people are infected.  Long term, 10,000 people recovering now vs 6 months from now is actually a more desirable outcome.

 

Again, I'm very sorry reality has to conflict with your narrative, but there is no chance of controlling this virus now and there never was.  The moment the first untraceable case was detected in Washington, the only mission was management, not containment.  We now know C19 had been in circulation for weeks, possibility months before detection, meaning there may never have even been a containment window.  Contact tracing is will have no measurable effect due to overwhelming prevalence.

 

Florida and some other States are looking forward to ending the pandemic comparatively early and while I wouldn't even begin to predict Canadian travel restrictions, I would still welcome your to our cruise port to escape the restrictions other places will still be under.

 

I understand the frustration you feel at when people chose strategies you don't agree with, especially when your predicted outcome does not manifest and they are left in better position.  As we are headed here in Florida.

 

Its not just me that doesn't agree with this its the medical experts around the world that have the job of making sure that we are treating this Virus properly.  I choose to listen to my Provincial Health Officer, the one with 25 years of experience in epidemiology and has been on the forefront of working on past virus infections including sars, and mers over some random forum poster.  In the same way, If I ever need surgery for anything, I prefer a qualified surgeon over my local auto mechanic.

 

I've very sorry your leadership has chosen to make policy on a mostly irrelevant metric.  Number of 'confirmed' cases is practically meaningless since testing is voluntary.  Here in Florida, discussion of the 'spike' is always followed by a summary of healthcare capacity which is not under stress.  There is ample capacity statewide in beds and even more so with equipment.

 

Not all testing that we are conducting is "voluntary".  We are testing both Symptomatic and Asymptomatic people as part of contact tracing.  We are also testing those on the front line, nurses etc..  We haven't done much testing because frankly our infections are low.  Yes total # of test positives does not mean much.  Our <1% infection rate means much more and is preferable to 30%.  But then again your preference based on a herd immunity strategy would be greater than 60 or 70%

 

There is nothing at all 'reckless' about achieving Herd Immunity.  Consider, why is 10,000 'cases' over 1 vs 5 days better or worse.  The same number of people are infected.  Long term, 10,000 people recovering now vs 6 months from now is actually a more desirable outcome.

 

Again your opinion.  CDC, WHO and most of the other medical officials do not share you opinion.

 

Again, I'm very sorry reality has to conflict with your narrative, but there is no chance of controlling this virus now and there never was.  The moment the first untraceable case was detected in Washington, the only mission was management, not containment.  We now know C19 had been in circulation for weeks, possibility months before detection, meaning there may never have even been a containment window.  Contact tracing is will have no measurable effect due to overwhelming prevalence.

 

 

You seem to be turning a blind eye to other countries that have controlled this probably because it doesn't fit your narrative.  Vietnam shut down even before a Pandemic was declared.  90 million people with just under 400 infections and zero deaths.  There are Western doctors working there who have no reason not to believe those stats.  We live right next to Washington State.  We were under the same situation as they were.  Look at the differences now.  No way we are going to open our border to non-essential travel any time soon.  No chance?  you keep on forgetting New York.  

 

 

Florida and some other States are looking forward to ending the pandemic comparatively early and while I wouldn't even begin to predict Canadian travel restrictions, I would still welcome your to our cruise port to escape the restrictions other places will still be under.

 

I would never wish harm on anyone and I am praying for my friends who live there.  I hope that the experts are wrong but unfortunately it may be a false hope.

 

 

 

 

 

[Milwaukee Eight]

I’m just glad we moved on from all Florida Hospitals overrun. 😇

 

M8

[boatseller]

42 minutes ago, cured said:

And this is where your scientific theories lose their credibility.

 

This is, in no way shape or form, "just another corona virus."   It is not just a common cold. There are 7 strains of Corona virus, the first 4  includes the common cold and has very mild symptoms. The last 3 are devastating including SARs and MERs viruses, being highly infectious with a high mortality rate.  Covid19 falls into the devastating ones. 

 

Several vaccines are showing initial positive results. For instance, the mRNA (messenger RNA) one, a cutting edge type of vaccine that has never been previously approved,  is showing good promise in the human trials.

 

Just because there is no vaccine for the common cold (no incentive to even look for one with such mild symptoms,) doesn't mean the virus is immune to vaccines.  SARs and MERs vaccines have been previously investigated with some success.

I completely understand how you feel frustrated by hearing information that conflicts with your understanding of the situation, but headline science should not be primary guidance.

 

SC2 is not SARS-1 (CFR 9%) or MERS (CFR 34%).  All of those predictions have failed spectacularly.  As harsher strains are filtered out naturally and treatment improves, SC2 is approaching, or already in, Influenza territory as a danger to the population.  People are already arguing whether the loss rate is .01% or .02% or if their risk is .001% or lower.

 

So, yes, SC2 is turning out to be just another coronavirus for the vast, vast majority of people.  Ultimately, it will not warrant mandatory vaccinations because the risk simply isn't there.  Influenza has killed far more people and vaccination is not mandatory.  Finally, "investigated with some success" is not a basis for long term policy.

 

As it stands right now, taking a cruise will be no more risky than visiting Universal Orlando and starting this weekend Walt Disney World (finally!) and any spread will be inconsequential to the larger population.  As the risk factors have been well known for weeks, protecting the vulnerable or people making informed decisions is quite easy.  

[cured]

11 minutes ago, boatseller said:

I completely understand how you feel frustrated by hearing information that conflicts with your understanding of the situation, but headline science should not be primary guidance.

 

SC2 is not SARS-1 (CFR 9%) or MERS (CFR 34%).  All of those predictions have failed spectacularly.  As harsher strains are filtered out naturally and treatment improves, SC2 is approaching, or already in, Influenza territory as a danger to the population.  People are already arguing whether the loss rate is .01% or .02% or if their risk is .001% or lower.

 

So, yes, SC2 is turning out to be just another coronavirus for the vast, vast majority of people.  Ultimately, it will not warrant mandatory vaccinations because the risk simply isn't there.  Influenza has killed far more people and vaccination is not mandatory.  Finally, "investigated with some success" is not a basis for long term policy.

 

As it stands right now, taking a cruise will be no more risky than visiting Universal Orlando and starting this weekend Walt Disney World (finally!) and any spread will be inconsequential to the larger population.  As the risk factors have been well known for weeks, protecting the vulnerable or people making informed decisions is quite easy.  

Sorry to disappoint you, but I am not at all frustrated.  Headline science is not influencing the information I choose to believe, peer reviewed science is.   I luckily have a child working on one of the vaccines who sends out peer reviewed scientific information constantly. 

 

With myself and all others in my immediate family being degreed in various sciences, mainly biological and chemical sciences and/or engineering, it is our main dinner or zoom topics 🙂

 

Again, what is your scientific background?  If anything, you are the one who seems frustrated. I'm sorry.

 

Peer reviewed science, you may want to try it.  It is enlightening and reassuring.

Edited July 6, 2020 by cured

[fisherguy]

3 minutes ago, boatseller said:

I completely understand how you feel frustrated by hearing information that conflicts with your understanding of the situation, but headline science should not be primary guidance.

 

SC2 is not SARS-1 (CFR 9%) or MERS (CFR 34%).  All of those predictions have failed spectacularly.  As harsher strains are filtered out naturally and treatment improves, SC2 is approaching, or already in, Influenza territory as a danger to the population.  People are already arguing whether the loss rate is .01% or .02% or if their risk is .001% or lower.

 

So, yes, SC2 is turning out to be just another coronavirus for the vast, vast majority of people.  Ultimately, it will not warrant mandatory vaccinations because the risk simply isn't there.  Influenza has killed far more people and vaccination is not mandatory.  Finally, "investigated with some success" is not a basis for long term policy.

 

As it stands right now, taking a cruise will be no more risky than visiting Universal Orlando and starting this weekend Walt Disney World (finally!) and any spread will be inconsequential to the larger population.  As the risk factors have been well known for weeks, protecting the vulnerable or people making informed decisions is quite easy.  

Unless you are a medical expert in epidemiology, please to not dispense "your opinions" as advice.  I know there are many that want to get on with their lives and would like nothing better than to believe anything that would let them do that.  Again it is foolhardy to compare the common flu to Covid.  The stats for the common flu are WITHOUT any measures to prevent it other than flu shots which must be taken every year.  No social distancing, no mask wearing.  Hell, I get some form of Flu or cold almost every year during the winter.  I absolutely do not want to get Covid.

 

 

[ReneeFLL]

On 7/4/2020 at 11:54 AM, Milwaukee Eight said:

I’m sitting at our favorite bar, Saints and Sinners after a long ride this morning. It’s located at the Dealership. With our favorite bartender, Kim. 
 

@John&LaLa they don’t serve NA. 
 

Social distancing in effect. 
 

Happy 4th

 

M8

 

Where's Kim's mask? 😱 😷

[boatseller]

16 minutes ago, fisherguy said:

 

I understand the frustration you feel at when people chose strategies you don't agree with, especially when your predicted outcome does not manifest and they are left in better position.  As we are headed here in Florida.

 

Its not just me that doesn't agree with this its the medical experts around the world that have the job of making sure that we are treating this Virus properly.  I choose to listen to my Provincial Health Officer, the one with 25 years of experience in epidemiology and has been on the forefront of working on past virus infections including sars, and mers over some random forum poster.  In the same way, If I ever need surgery for anything, I prefer a qualified surgeon over my local auto mechanic.

 

I've very sorry your leadership has chosen to make policy on a mostly irrelevant metric.  Number of 'confirmed' cases is practically meaningless since testing is voluntary.  Here in Florida, discussion of the 'spike' is always followed by a summary of healthcare capacity which is not under stress.  There is ample capacity statewide in beds and even more so with equipment.

 

Not all testing that we are conducting is "voluntary".  We are testing both Symptomatic and Asymptomatic people as part of contact tracing.  We are also testing those on the front line, nurses etc..  We haven't done much testing because frankly our infections are low.  Yes total # of test positives does not mean much.  Our <1% infection rate means much more and is preferable to 30%.  But then again your preference based on a herd immunity strategy would be greater than 60 or 70%

 

There is nothing at all 'reckless' about achieving Herd Immunity.  Consider, why is 10,000 'cases' over 1 vs 5 days better or worse.  The same number of people are infected.  Long term, 10,000 people recovering now vs 6 months from now is actually a more desirable outcome.

 

Again your opinion.  CDC, WHO and most of the other medical officials do not share you opinion.

 

Again, I'm very sorry reality has to conflict with your narrative, but there is no chance of controlling this virus now and there never was.  The moment the first untraceable case was detected in Washington, the only mission was management, not containment.  We now know C19 had been in circulation for weeks, possibility months before detection, meaning there may never have even been a containment window.  Contact tracing is will have no measurable effect due to overwhelming prevalence.

 

 

You seem to be turning a blind eye to other countries that have controlled this probably because it doesn't fit your narrative.  Vietnam shut down even before a Pandemic was declared.  90 million people with just under 400 infections and zero deaths.  There are Western doctors working there who have no reason not to believe those stats.  We live right next to Washington State.  We were under the same situation as they were.  Look at the differences now.  No way we are going to open our border to non-essential travel any time soon.  No chance?  you keep on forgetting New York.  

 

 

Florida and some other States are looking forward to ending the pandemic comparatively early and while I wouldn't even begin to predict Canadian travel restrictions, I would still welcome your to our cruise port to escape the restrictions other places will still be under.

 

I would never wish harm on anyone and I am praying for my friends who live there.  I hope that the experts are wrong but unfortunately it may be a false hope.

While I certainly appreciate your effort to defend a rather tenuous position, your assessment of the situation is based on dubious reasoning and sources.  Remember, the WHO initially said there was no human-to-human transmissions, then later had to walk back statements on asymptomatic transmission.

 

All the 'experts' have is theories and projections.  And they're been, let's say missing the target since the beginning.  On the ground here in Florida, we're seeing a lot of new infections with, so far, little additional disruption.  Our average case profile is much younger, less symptomatic and requiring less care.

 

Our Governor has been focused since the beginning on protecting the most vulnerable and ensuring care is available for those who need it.  This is not a crisis, despite the scary daily case numbers.  20&30-somethings recovering from even a bad cold does not require any meaningful intervention.

 

Again, I must reiterate that no country will be able to control spread once their borders reopen.  This is pure folly.  Worldwide prevalence is beyond control.

 

"No way we are going to open our border to non-essential travel any time soon."  I truly feel bad for you and your countrymen.  In order to protect the low case rate, Canada will have to remain isolated for months or even years while we're pretty much back to normal.  Our cruise ports will be open soon and you will always be welcome in Florida...whenever you're allowed to leave.

[boatseller]

41 minutes ago, cured said:

Sorry to disappoint you, but I am not at all frustrated.  Headline science is not influencing the information I choose to believe, peer reviewed science is.   I luckily have a child working on one of the vaccines who sends out peer reviewed scientific information constantly. 

 

With myself and all others in my immediate family being degreed in various sciences, mainly biological and chemical sciences and/or engineering, it is our main dinner or zoom topics 🙂

 

Again, what is your scientific background?  If anything, you are the one who seems frustrated. I'm sorry.

 

Peer reviewed science, you may want to try it.  It is enlightening and reassuring.

Very cleaver, but quite obvious.  While I'm sure all the degrees are significant personal accomplishments, they are irrelevant to the discussion.

 

The statistics I used are readily available and very easy to understand, even for people who spent many years in higher education.  🙂

 

If you have numbers or analysis that conflict with what I provided and support you points, please provide them.  Otherwise, a degree in Renaissance French Poetry would be equally credible.