Its time to move on from 2020

[cured]

22 minutes ago, boatseller said:

Very cleaver, but quite obvious.  While I'm sure all the degrees are significant personal accomplishments, they are irrelevant to the discussion.

 

The statistics I used are readily available and very easy to understand, even for people who spent many years in higher education.  🙂

 

If you have numbers or analysis that conflict with what I provided and support you points, please provide them.  Otherwise, a degree in Renaissance French Poetry would be equally credible.

You stated emphatically that the virus cannot be now nor ever be contained.

 

Luckily, much research has shown that the virus is containable.  Here is research just published last week: 

 

Unfortunately, at this moment, the peer reviewed journal CELL is down for maintenance so I can't get a link to the article. The research looks very good for being able to control the virus. As soon as the website comes back up, I will provide a link to the actual peer reviewed article.

 

In wake of the actual peer reviewed article, here is the article from UCSF themselves that they published in CELL. Are you familiar with the concept of Kinases? This is a pretty technical article, but they do a good job of explaining the science behind their findings.

 

https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/06/417936/covid-19-relies-cells-master-regulators-survival

 

 

Edited July 6, 2020 by cured

[boatseller]

1 hour ago, cured said:

Are you an epidemiologist or an engineer working on the virus?  Because this statement is scientifically incorrect.  I suggest cracking open some respected medical journals and see what progress actual scientists are making against the virus.

 

The timeline is still up in the air, but scientists are very optimistic a vaccine can be found. 

 

Would you please list any peer reviewed studies that say a vaccine and effective treatments to stop the spread quickly is impossible?

 

pssst...the latest studies out of UCSF are promising for effective treatment with available drugs (bile cancer drug seems the most promising) that stops the virus dead in its tracks and prevents spread, thus controlling the virus.

 

Safe cruising with controlled or eliminated SARS-CoV-2 will happen.

I'm very sorry to present some facts inconvenient to your personal narrative.  Only 1 disease have been successfully eradicated in humans, Smallpox.

 

Plague is still a thing after hundreds of years of effort.

 

I can tell you have not been carefully reading my posts.  I specifically mention improving treatment plans.  Also, there has never been a viable coronvirus vaccine.  While it would be great to have one, we can't wait.  An effective Polio vaccine took ~17 years to develop.

 

Understanding this required 0 Epidemiological an training.  You don't have to be a mechanical, electrical or software engineer to drive a Tesla.  So, everyone just stop with that. It just means you have no basis for debate.

[momofmab]

2 hours ago, cured said:

How do you social distance in a classroom? Most elementary school classes are upwards of 20 students.  Most typical sized classrooms with desks properly placed can accomodate 8 students. What happens to the other 12+.  Add to that the massive cuts state budgets have suffered due to the virus and that trickles down to the schools. Right now, my district is planning on a partial reopening.

 

Elementary school students will go to school 2 days a week, one day closed for cleaning, the last 2 days of the week the other half of the students will attend.  No bussing at all. Middle school and high school will only have students on campus for short times for necessary labs.  I don't know how working parents are going to accommodate, but it is what has to be done to comply with state and federal guidelines on reopening schools.

 

Here is one of many possible scenarios that could happen with opening schools too early. It is not that easy to just say send kids to school.

 

Ellison Mitchell

July 2 at 7:55 AM

🍏For those of you saying "If essential workers can work, teachers can work, and our kids need to be in school!" I get where you're coming from. I want you to imagine the first day of school.

🍏Kids will get on the bus. They will be packed together, because my district (like many) has ruled that it is too expensive and time-consuming to do staggered bussing. They will be excited to see their friends, and they will talk, share items, and do all the things they missed doing on the bus, and this will be great for their emotional health. Eventually some of them will take off their masks, because one or two kids didn't come with one to begin with, and who's scared of this thing anyway?

 

        And so, before 10am, you have had your first super-spreader event in the district. No, the kids may not all get sick, but a few of them will. A few of those will die, as we've seen in news reports. They probably won't be your child, so this does not matter to you. It is a sacrifice you were prepared to make.

🍏Kids will enter school. If this is done in a staggered manner, we will lose significant instructional time. Kids will sit at their desks, and if they are in a Title I school like mine where most parents can not afford to stay home and support kids during Digital Learning, we will have at least 80% of the population in the classroom. A classroom with truly socially distanced desks can seat about 8 people. Realistically, we will have 25-30 children packed together. Some of them will play with their masks or, if their parents are anti-mask, they will refuse to have those masks on.

🍏A teacher will now have to teach in a classroom where they are no longer allowed to have group activities, so vital for young learners, unless they are in a contactless digital format. Hopefully the school will have enough computers for those students without their own devices. Hopefully the teacher will be able to maneuver quickly enough to stop students from Snapchatting their friends, or logging on to any number of non-educational websites, so that they can do their lesson.

A teacher will also have to choose between instructing effectively and protecting themselves and the people they may care for at home. Proximity is key to classroom management. Social distancing is not compatible with it. Students who do not wear masks may see reduced teacher attention, because again, teachers are being asked to choose between their health and their effectiveness.

🍏Lunchtime arrives. Students have to take their masks off to eat. In my district, we will be eating in classrooms, and my school's windows do not open. Staggered lunches do not help once the masks are off and students are eating and talking and, because they miss their friends, clustering together. A teacher will have to choose between eating, separating students, and their health.

🍏Time to change classes. If students are the ones transitioning, instead of a teacher rotating between classrooms, we lose valuable instructional time to sanitizing. Do we have enough wipes and sprays to sanitize four or more times a day? Hopefully you donated some, because now a teacher may have to choose between their finances and *everyone's* health.

🍏Novel study time. Do we have enough books for 100+ middle schoolers? Don't make me laugh. Every student will need to sanitize before and after touching a book. You won't pay for ebooks and you won't pay for physical books, but we hope you will donate hand sanitizer.

🍏Chorus. Orchestra. Band. These teachers are talking about reducing class sizes to 80+. *Reducing* them. For their safety.

🍏Time to go home. Students get on the bus again. A second super-spreader event occurs across the district.

🍏Now, let's talk about how things go after Day 1:

A child tests positive for COVID-19. The parents fear retaliation from peers and do not report it to the school; they just keep their child at home and hope it blows over.

A child is sick with fever. A parent gives them Tylenol and sends them to school.

A child who interacted with the child whose parents did not report tests positive and parents report this. Students and teachers that interacted with the child have to quarantine for 14 days. That's 14 days of the Digital Learning we were trying to avoid in the first place. In middle school, if a teacher tests positive, that will mean 100+ kids are staying home with parents, and all of their teachers, too. This will happen again and again. All of the promised consistency, routine, structure, everything you wanted for your children, is gone, and you are not prepared to help them with DL.

A child in a community with high COVID-19 exposure becomes sick with MIS-C. More children contract MIS-C. This was a sacrifice you did not realize you were making, but it does not affect your child, so it does not concern you.

🍏Now for the community spread.

The virus will find many opportunities to flourish in a school, no matter how carefully the teachers and staff strive to curb it. The resources simply are not being given to them. Children will spread the virus to parents, siblings, grandparents (especially in multigenerational homes), and inevitably, people who shop and work outside of their homes. The spike we see now, that began in June, will pale in comparison to what follows.

🍏And some teachers, nurses, custodians, and principals will die. But that's a footnote to you; what about the learning outcomes? The academic gains?

Well? What will those be?

--Ellison Mitchell

Wow, that’s a long post 😆. Like I said, we have to proceed cautiously, using masking, disinfecting and social distancing guidelines.  Schools can and should require masking by both teachers and students ( teachers can also wear gloves and face shields if it makes them feel more protected - our high school makes their own face shields ).  We are being fed a constant stream of messaging by the CDC, state & local government, celebrities and various medical & epidemiology experts that  if everyone wears masks The chance of transmission between mask-wearers is 1.5%.  Considering we’ll never get to 0% without everyone being vaccinated, 1.5% isn’t horrible.

 

Social distancing:  many schools are considering hybrid programs in order to lessen the number of students in school buildings and classrooms on a given day.  Kids will alternate in-person learning with virtual learning.  Not 100% ideal for kids who thrive on in-person learning but at least it’s an attempt to get kids back in the classroom part time.  Kids who are not comfortable with being back in the classroom because of Covid concerns, can engage in virtual learning exclusively.

 

Strict & consistent disinfecting of classrooms:  lots of schools already have a protocol in place for this because of the annual flu season - they just need to expand on it and be diligent about doing it.
 

I don’t doubt that there will be a “spike”, but again I believe most will be a-symptomatic and minor symptom cases.  Adults who are high risk and live in homes with school children will have to continue to quarantine.  Where I live, kids have mostly gone back to hanging out in small groups and there’s been no spread among them.  There doesn’t seem to be much of a rhyme or reason the which groups of kids transmit the virus.  If everyone wears masks, the chances will diminish.

 

I believe we owe it to the kids to at least try and make it work.  No one is taking their mental health into consideration.  We simply can’t expect them to be in isolation for an undetermined period of time until (and if) a vaccine is developed, tested and put into wide circulation.  Also, many working parents are finding themselves in the position of not being able to both work and homeschool their children.

 

 

 

 

[boatseller]

11 minutes ago, cured said:

You stated emphatically that the virus cannot nor ever be contained.

 

Luckily, much research has shown that the virus is containable.  Here is research just published last week: 

 

Unfortunately, at this moment, the peer reviewed journal CELL is down for maintenance so I can't get a link to the article. The research looks very good for being able to control the virus. As soon as the website comes back up, I will provide a link to the actual peer reviewed article.

 

In wake of the actual peer reviewed article, here is the article from UCSF themselves that they published in CELL. Are you familiar with the concept of Kinases? This is a pretty technical article, but they do a good job of explaining the science behind their findings.

 

https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/06/417936/covid-19-relies-cells-master-regulators-survival

 

 

While it's great they may have found another treatment, the practicality is also not something that can be used for policy.

 

Whether its a prophylactic or vaccine, compliance is it's Achilles Heel.  The flu vaccine barely gets 33% coverage.  And your also asking people to choose between the unknown side effects of a drug vs a mild illness.  I guarantee (and this is an opinion) most people would just take the change with the disease.  (If they're are investigating prophylactics, post infection treatment is different.)

 

And no, this virus cannot be contained.  It's too prevalent and simply doesn't warrant the effort to make it only the 2nd disease ever to be eradicated.

[cured]

33 minutes ago, boatseller said:

I'm very sorry to present some facts inconvenient to your personal narrative.  Only 1 disease have been successfully eradicated in humans, Smallpox.

 

Plague is still a thing after hundreds of years of effort.

 

I can tell you have not been carefully reading my posts.  I specifically mention improving treatment plans.  Also, there has never been a viable coronvirus vaccine.  While it would be great to have one, we can't wait.  An effective Polio vaccine took ~17 years to develop.

 

Understanding this required 0 Epidemiological an training.  You don't have to be a mechanical, electrical or software engineer to drive a Tesla.  So, everyone just stop with that. It just means you have no basis for debate.

My reading comprehension is quite good.

 

You stated the virus cannot be contained.

 

Science says otherwise.  

 

Polio was created years ago. It is safe to say our medical and scientific insights into the mechanics of viruses has improved leaps and bounds.  Our scientists have equipment and understanding down to the minutest parts of the virus. Gene-based vaccines, such as mRNA and DNA, are emerging and showing promise, vaccines technology so new, there has never been any approvals for it yet.  Moderna is currently trialing a gene-based vaccine in the US. Several foreign companies are also seeing promising results in gene-based vaccines.

 

With the whole world working on a vaccine (never has happened before) you cannot point to the timelines of previous vaccines. No one knows how long it is going to take with all this new technology.

 

Edited July 6, 2020 by cured

[boatseller]

1 hour ago, fisherguy said:

Unless you are a medical expert in epidemiology, please to not dispense "your opinions" as advice.  I know there are many that want to get on with their lives and would like nothing better than to believe anything that would let them do that.  Again it is foolhardy to compare the common flu to Covid.  The stats for the common flu are WITHOUT any measures to prevent it other than flu shots which must be taken every year.  No social distancing, no mask wearing.  Hell, I get some form of Flu or cold almost every year during the winter.  I absolutely do not want to get Covid.

Please provide the exact quote where I provide advice, based on opinion or not.

[charmy98]

On 7/3/2020 at 12:53 PM, B-52 said:

Places like the airlines, Disney and other parks, are all announcing their policies so they can re-open....Royal Carib has said nothing....all they are doing is announcing one month at a time, coming out with FCC and other schemes, and taking new bookings just so they have some $$ to hold onto...otherwise, they cease to exist.

My opinion...its going to happen.

I'm with you, they keep selling cruises even for 2020, I think it's so they have the money to keep it turning over when they cancel a cruise in let's say August, they have the people's deposit money from future cruises to refund the August cruises. 

 

[cured]

21 minutes ago, boatseller said:

While it's great they may have found another treatment, the practicality is also not something that can be used for policy.

 

Whether its a prophylactic or vaccine, compliance is it's Achilles Heel.  The flu vaccine barely gets 33% coverage.  And your also asking people to choose between the unknown side effects of a drug vs a mild illness.  I guarantee (and this is an opinion) most people would just take the change with the disease.  (If they're are investigating prophylactics, post infection treatment is different.)

 

And no, this virus cannot be contained.  It's too prevalent and simply doesn't warrant the effort to make it only the 2nd disease ever to be eradicated.

Contained and eradicated are two completely different concepts. 

 

You obviously did not read the article from UCSF.  Luckily for us, scientists understand the principles from cancer research and theorize that it can be applied to the covid 19 virus.

 

Here is a great article to explain how Kinases works. The scientists at UCSF have preliminary findings that this is the achille's heel of the virus, which makes it vulnerable to existing meds.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/neuroscience/protein-kinases

 

With effective treatments and vaccines, and the relative stability of the virus, this virus has shown that with the right drugs and vaccine, it will be relatively easy to contain in the future. The timeline only hinges on the discovery of the right combination of drug and the successful human trials of the vaccine.

 

You really need to embrace actual science.  Your Tesla example is apples to oranges.  Here is a great beginning resource for scientific articles regarding covid-19 and updates on the progress of the science regarding the virus:

https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus

 

Articles in peer reviewed journals are also great sources. Stop making inferences based on what you see and hear. It does not tell you the science behind the virus.

 

Have a great day and happy cruising when the vaccine is released.

Edited July 6, 2020 by cured

[boatseller]

2 minutes ago, cured said:

My reading comprehension is quite good.

 

You stated the virus cannot be controlled.

 

Science says otherwise.  

 

Polio was created years ago. It is safe to say our medical and scientific insights into the mechanics of viruses has improved leaps and bounds.  Our scientists have equipment and understanding down to the minutest parts of the virus. Gene-based vaccines, such as mRNA and DNA, are emerging and showing promise, vaccines technology so new, there has never been any approvals for it yet.  Moderna is currently trialing a gene-based vaccine in the US. Several foreign companies are also seeing promising results in gene-based vaccines.

 

With the whole world working on a vaccine (never has happened before) you cannot point to the timelines of previous vaccines. No one knows how long it is going to take with all this new technology.

 

Very sorry, but no.  Can you provide any evidence that SC2 is controllable?  Even a projection or theory?  Some of that science?

 

MERS is still around and SC1 and SC2 differ in one vary critical way, asymptomatic SC1 was very rare while we know asymptomatic SC2 accounts for possibly the majority of cases.  This is why SC1, and Ebola and MERS, were easy to contain.

 

Advancements in medical science are not guarantors of anything.  It took 30-40 years to develop an effective treatment for Hepatitis C and the breakthrough wasn't even a new anti-viral.  We can't wait an unknown about of time for a vaccine of unknown effectiveness that an unknown number of people will take for a disease that takes fewer and fewer people and those in well known cohorts.

 

I am frustrated that the cruise lines pushed back from August, but it makes sense politically, just let the NSO quietly expire.  When September 15 rolls around, C19 prevention will be an afterthought for a heck of a lot of people (this is a prediction, not a recommendation).  Sure, face coverings, hand washing but people who book cruises will be more concerned about enjoying their cruise than the virus.

[cured]

10 minutes ago, boatseller said:

Very sorry, but no.  Can you provide any evidence that SC2 is controllable?  Even a projection or theory?  Some of that science?

 

MERS is still around and SC1 and SC2 differ in one vary critical way, asymptomatic SC1 was very rare while we know asymptomatic SC2 accounts for possibly the majority of cases.  This is why SC1, and Ebola and MERS, were easy to contain.

 

Advancements in medical science are not guarantors of anything.  It took 30-40 years to develop an effective treatment for Hepatitis C and the breakthrough wasn't even a new anti-viral.  We can't wait an unknown about of time for a vaccine of unknown effectiveness that an unknown number of people will take for a disease that takes fewer and fewer people and those in well known cohorts.

 

I am frustrated that the cruise lines pushed back from August, but it makes sense politically, just let the NSO quietly expire.  When September 15 rolls around, C19 prevention will be an afterthought for a heck of a lot of people (this is a prediction, not a recommendation).  Sure, face coverings, hand washing but people who book cruises will be more concerned about enjoying their cruise than the virus.

Sigh, I have provided links to research.

Not even going to acknowledge this rubbish with a rebuttal.

 

Peer reviewed articles - read them. If you choose not to read peer reviewed articles, that is on you but scientific ignorance does not make opinions correct. I am not an expert in the cellular level of viruses but I do base anything I believe on the understanding of actual science. I don't pretend to be a Tesla driver who knows more than the engineers who developed it. But if an engineer tells me this is how it is done, I believe them over what I see with Tesla drivers.

 

I am sure everyone will rejoice when I say I am out. You can lead a horse to water but you can't make them drink seems to be the problem here.

Edited July 6, 2020 by cured

[fisherguy]

8 minutes ago, cured said:

Sigh, I have provided links to research.

Not even going to acknowledge this rubbish with a rebuttal.

 

Peer reviewed articles - read them. If you choose not to read peer reviewed articles, that is on you but scientific ignorance does not make opinions correct. I am not an expert in the cellular level of viruses but I do base anything I believe on the understanding of actual science. I don't pretend to be a Tesla driver who knows more than the engineers who developed it.

 

I am sure everyone will rejoice when I say I am out. You can lead a horse to water but you can't make them drink seems to be the problem here.

its a lost cause.  I won't waste my time anymore.  Wishing the best of luck to those that are having a tough time with it. 

[Milwaukee Eight]

Is anyone else still here?

 

M8

[boatseller]

20 minutes ago, cured said:

You obviously did not read the article from UCSF.  Luckily for us, scientists understand the principles from cancer research and theorize that it can be applied to the covid 19 virus.

Oh, snap!  You just lost all your credibility.  I did read it.  What was your scientific process that lead you to this incorrect conclusion?  I'm actually interested.  Ohh, fancy sciency terms like Protein Kinases.  Ok, bitwise operators, endianness, imperative vs declarative...yawn...every discipline has it's instruction set.  You don't need a 10 year degree to understand the basis (yes, basis, not basics).  So please spare the patronizing ivory tower lectures.  🙄

 

"The timeline only hinges on the discovery of the right combination of drug and the successful human trials of the vaccine."  They've been saying that about another virus for almost 40 years now too.

[zonacruiser25]

Got a nice e-mail today from Celebrity, happy to see they are letting people know something about what they are doing:

Our shared love of travel is what keeps us all looking forward. That’s why I’m happy to share with you some of what we’ve been working on over the past several months. As you can imagine, we’ve been focused on all aspects of our safe return to service with special emphasis on safety, security, and health. In this process, we immediately recognized the extreme complexity of the situation, so we assembled a blue-ribbon team of experts to advise us on the right approach. Our advisory panel consists of 11 experts, including physicians, scientists, and public health specialists—to name a few—who’ve been giving us guidance in raising our health and safety standards to entirely new levels. By using our ingenuity, our passion, our innovation, and with the valuable knowledge of these experts, we’re doing everything we can to ensure we’re taking the proper steps to address our future. It’s tempting to talk about all the individual components of how things will change for us; however, we're still defining all those enhancements with the guidance of our expert advisors. We will not rush this work, and it’s no exaggeration to say that we continue to work on it around the clock. I look forward to sharing more with you about our healthy return to service soon. In the meantime, I invite you to visit our website where you’ll find detailed information on each member of our advisory panel and learn more about our determination in exceeding the expectations of travel within our new world. We are resilient, and we will come back strong—not by mimicking what we used to do but by innovating as we’ve always done.

[boatseller]

30 minutes ago, cured said:

Sigh, I have provided links to research.

Not even going to acknowledge this rubbish with a rebuttal.

 

Peer reviewed articles - read them. If you choose not to read peer reviewed articles, that is on you but scientific ignorance does not make opinions correct. I am not an expert in the cellular level of viruses but I do base anything I believe on the understanding of actual science. I don't pretend to be a Tesla driver who knows more than the engineers who developed it. But if an engineer tells me this is how it is done, I believe them over what I see with Tesla drivers.

 

I am sure everyone will rejoice when I say I am out. You can lead a horse to water but you can't make them drink seems to be the problem here.

One article which does not indicate it was reviewed by anyone other than maybe an editor which is not an actual study about a possible course of treatment.

 

Not even an actual treatment, just the basis for a course of research.  The author was very clear about: "inform not only the next areas of biological study but also treatments that may be repurposed".  No time frame even speculated.

 

Super, one of many possible treatments.  And?  That article did absolutely nothing to refute anything is said.  Nothing at all.  But here's you chance to show me up.  Explain exactly what I got wrong.

 

Decisions on policy around the virus and cruising will be made not based on theoretical research opportunities.  They will be made based on observational data on the course of the pandemic and, gasp, the public's willingness to participate in any measures.  If people are willing to cruise and accept the risk, well, there you go.  All that sciences out the window...or overboard.

 

 

[bucfan2]

48 minutes ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

Is anyone else still here?

 

M8

 

Ya, but I'm actually wondering why....

[molly361]

52 minutes ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

Is anyone else still here?

 

M8

I'm here but I'm not present😇

[Milwaukee Eight]

4 minutes ago, molly361 said:

I'm here but I'm not present😇

Ok. Just checking 

[Dennis#1]

1 hour ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

Is anyone else still here?

 

M8

I am here, but just lurking.

[mugtech]

1 hour ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

Is anyone else still here?

 

M8

agree with OP, see y'all next year.

[3red7s]

Seems like the frustration is starting to get to all of us......be it cruising....or other traveling.  I totally agree that no one knows when this will end.  I had 5 cruises cancelled, with one pending in December.  I get my refunds so I am good with that.  But I really detest the idea that the cruise lines continue to offer & book, take the money, when they really don't know what the future will bring.  I am shifting my traveling to all inclusives in the Carib, and visiting the good old USA> 

 

[molly361]

1 hour ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

Is anyone else still here?

 

M8

Duplicate

Edited July 6, 2020 by molly361

[mk-ultra]

Waded back into this thread.

 

I thought tipping and smoking were the worst third-rail topics here.

 

Nope.  I'll show myself out.  [duct tapes own mouth shut -- will find a pillow to shout into later]. 

Edited July 6, 2020 by mk-ultra

[John&LaLa]

1 hour ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

Is anyone else still here?

 

M8

 

I'm in Miami, ground zero it seems. 90+% mask wesring everywhere I went today. Businesses seem to be demanding it. Apparently it will be 100% required on Wednesday from what I hear.

[Milwaukee Eight]

23 minutes ago, John&LaLa said:

 

I'm in Miami, ground zero it seems. 90+% mask wesring everywhere I went today. Businesses seem to be demanding it. Apparently it will be 100% required on Wednesday from what I hear.

Same I hear from my son.