Are vaccines the light at the end of the tunnel?

[TeeRick]

1 minute ago, markeb said:

It's been in the Executive Order released January 21st. Hardly new...

 

(e)  International Certificates of Vaccination or Prophylaxis.  Consistent with applicable law, the Secretary of State, the Secretary of HHS, and the Secretary of Homeland Security (including through the Administrator of the TSA), in coordination with any relevant international organizations, shall assess the feasibility of linking COVID-19 vaccination to International Certificates of Vaccination or Prophylaxis (ICVP) and producing electronic versions of ICVPs.

Thanks!  Out of his numerous Executive Orders I guess I missed this one!

[markeb]

6 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

Thanks!  Out of his numerous Executive Orders I guess I missed this one!

It’s the one with all the travel related actions that apparently no one around here has read...

[TeeRick]

14 minutes ago, markeb said:

It’s the one with all the travel related actions that apparently no one around here has read...

I have not.  Can you provide a link?

[Charles4515]

38 minutes ago, markeb said:

It's been in the Executive Order released January 21st. Hardly new...

 

(e)  International Certificates of Vaccination or Prophylaxis.  Consistent with applicable law, the Secretary of State, the Secretary of HHS, and the Secretary of Homeland Security (including through the Administrator of the TSA), in coordination with any relevant international organizations, shall assess the feasibility of linking COVID-19 vaccination to International Certificates of Vaccination or Prophylaxis (ICVP) and producing electronic versions of ICVPs.

 

Yes, but apparently  it is not just talk. 

[markeb]

48 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

I have not.  Can you provide a link?

When I’m back at a computer. I linked it in a dissertation on the CDC thread...

[TeeRick]

I am bummed.  I knew it was coming but still officially a bummer.

I just got an email from Celebrity officially cancelling my Aug 26th cruise out of Southampton to Norway on Silhouette.  I had the tiniest glimmer of hope.  Now extinguished.  There is no equivalent cruise in 2022.  Silhouette is actually sailing out of Southampton but doing UK-only cruises for the summer.

Edited March 29, 2021 by TeeRick

[Glendakayself]

Real-world data at UT Southwestern shows benefit of early vaccination on health care workforce (medicalxpress.com)

 

I do not know if this small study has been previously posted, but it does show the vaccine is effective in preventing most infections. However, it does not prevent all infections.

[nocl]

6 hours ago, jagoffee said:

Where do you see the information on total Covid related hospitalizations across the US?  
 

Thanks

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html

 

The increase is very slight at this point only .1% week over week compared to new cases which is up 7% week over week.   However, it appears to be going through the same bottoming out process that new cases did two weeks ago.

[nocl]

1 hour ago, TeeRick said:

I am bummed.  I knew it was coming but still officially a bummer.

I just got an email from Celebrity officially cancelling my Aug 26th cruise out of Southampton to Norway on Silhouette.  I had the tiniest glimmer of hope.  Now extinguished.  There is no equivalent cruise in 2022.  Silhouette is actually sailing out of Southampton but doing UK-only cruises for the summer.

I believe there is light at the end of the cruise ship tunnel, but it is about 5 months away.

 

There is a fairly large study being run inside the US to definitively answer the question about vaccines, transmission and asymptomatic infection. If the data from that study is positive then we should see the CDC accept vaccination as a valid alternative to all of the other protective measures on board ship.

[markeb]

2 hours ago, TeeRick said:

I have not.  Can you provide a link?

 

Here you go!

 

Executive Order on Promoting COVID-19 Safety in Domestic and International Travel

 

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2021/01/21/executive-order-promoting-covid-19-safety-in-domestic-and-international-travel/

[Ken the cruiser]

More positive "real world" news about the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines.

 

CDC: Pfizer and Moderna Covid vaccines found 90 percent effective in 'real-world' study (nbcnews.com)

[TeeRick]

Thank you Ken this is good news.  And the CDC report says that the mRNA vaccines are at least 80% effective about 2 weeks after the first dose.  Good news for people like me waiting for Moderna dose 2 right now.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7013e3.htm?s_cid=mm7013e3_w

[NMTraveller]

7 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

Thank you Ken this is good news.  And the CDC report says that the mRNA vaccines are at least 80% effective about 2 weeks after the first dose.  Good news for people like me waiting for Moderna dose 2 right now.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7013e3.htm?s_cid=mm7013e3_w

This report kind of makes you wonder why don't we get every one the first dose and then go back for the second?  Both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are more effective after the first dose than the J&J.

[mayleeman]

2 hours ago, nocl said:

I believe there is light at the end of the cruise ship tunnel, but it is about 5 months away.

 

Since my cruise is exactly 5 months from today, I will be following your Nostradamus skills carefully.

 

2nd Pfizer doses tomorrow. Looking forward to officially being fully vaxxed by mid-April!!!

[hcat]

6 hours ago, TeeRick said:

Presumably the US government is developing a vaccine passport.  

https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/28/politics/biden-administration-vaccination-passport/index.html

 

Online article that  I read today said :

 

"The White House, meanwhile is ruling out the creation of a national “vaccine passport” for Americans to verify their immunization status, saying it is leaving it to the private sector to develop a system for people show they’ve been vaccinated. Some other countries are establishing national databases to allow vaccinated people to resume normal activities...."

 

Not sure how this fits with development of a" vaccine passport"?

All seems confusing to me....

[mayleeman]

@hcat  There would undoubtedly be a huge backlash against any US federal effort to have a gov't-mandated national vax database. There is a history here that is generations long of antipathy toward a national ID card, and it is not too much of a stretch to suspect a "national vaccine database" would inflame the anti-fed sentiment. (This is why even after 9/11 revealed horrible breakdowns in state drivers' license verifications, the "Real ID" program was still left to the states--the refrain was "NO FEDERAL ID!!!")

 

If the feds want to do something just for international travel, they should perhaps reissue passports that have verified vax status because passorts are voluntary. But, getting everyone to reapply for and receive new passports might be a decade-long undertaking.

Edited March 29, 2021 by mayleeman

[zitsky]

12 minutes ago, mayleeman said:

@hcat  There would undoubtedly be a huge backlash against any US federal effort to have a gov't-mandated national vax database. There is a history here that is generations long of antipathy toward a national ID card, and it is not too much of a stretch to suspect a "national vaccine database" would inflame the anti-fed sentiment. (This is why even after 9/11 revealed horrible breakdowns in state drivers' license verifications, the "Real ID" program was still left to the states--the refrain was "NO FEDERAL ID!!!")

 

If the feds want to do something just for international travel, they should perhaps reissue passports that have verified vax status because passorts are voluntary. But, getting everyone to reapply for and receive new passports might be a decade-long undertaking.

 

I don't understand your analogy.  Isn't Real ID law of the land?  Myself I'm not afraid of having my name in some computer if it lets me travel again.

[nocl]

Just heard on CNBC that the NACI (National Advisory Committee on Immunization) has recommended that the AZ vaccine not be given to those under 55.

 

Here is an article about it

 

https://globalnews.ca/news/7726169/astrazeneca-vaccine-safety-canada/

[markeb]

41 minutes ago, mayleeman said:

@hcat  There would undoubtedly be a huge backlash against any US federal effort to have a gov't-mandated national vax database. There is a history here that is generations long of antipathy toward a national ID card, and it is not too much of a stretch to suspect a "national vaccine database" would inflame the anti-fed sentiment. (This is why even after 9/11 revealed horrible breakdowns in state drivers' license verifications, the "Real ID" program was still left to the states--the refrain was "NO FEDERAL ID!!!")

 

If the feds want to do something just for international travel, they should perhaps reissue passports that have verified vax status because passorts are voluntary. But, getting everyone to reapply for and receive new passports might be a decade-long undertaking.

 

The Executive Order requires several agencies to "assess the feasibility of linking COVID-19 vaccination to International Certificates of Vaccination or Prophylaxis (ICVP) and producing electronic versions of ICVPs."

 

I'd view that as two separate actions. One, can you get the information into the current paper document, and how. And two, can you get the current paper document into an electronic format. I personally think you can do both without a national vaccine database that identifies the individual. The first is easy; you need to get the vaccine verification to the individual in a format that can be entered into their individual medical records, and then posted on their yellow card if needed. The second is more complicated, and would probably involve the individuals consent to provide the information in a format that can be shared with travel service providers, or CLEAR, for instance, who are probably the primary users of the system. Maybe a control  number you voluntarily enter, like a redress number for TSA, or an electronic authorization for Australia (which is linked to your passport information that your voluntarily provide), on your frequent flyer account or as part of your airline check-in.

 

Requiring proof of vaccine in some verifiable electronic system to go to your gym in the US, for instance, is probably multiple bridges too far! Simplifying entry to a concert or sporting event because you're voluntarily using CLEAR has some of the same privacy considerations, but you're already giving them finger prints and an iris scan for your convenience to bypass the line at the airport. If there's a system, it's going to have to be voluntary. (The argument that it's not voluntary if you can't travel without it is interesting and irrelevant. You basically can't fly to Australia, when you can again, without their electronic authorization tied to your passport; you voluntarily chose to fly to Australia and to do so, you had to meet their requirements.)

[nocl]

12 minutes ago, markeb said:

 

The Executive Order requires several agencies to "assess the feasibility of linking COVID-19 vaccination to International Certificates of Vaccination or Prophylaxis (ICVP) and producing electronic versions of ICVPs."

 

I'd view that as two separate actions. One, can you get the information into the current paper document, and how. And two, can you get the current paper document into an electronic format. I personally think you can do both without a national vaccine database that identifies the individual. The first is easy; you need to get the vaccine verification to the individual in a format that can be entered into their individual medical records, and then posted on their yellow card if needed. The second is more complicated, and would probably involve the individuals consent to provide the information in a format that can be shared with travel service providers, or CLEAR, for instance, who are probably the primary users of the system. Maybe a control  number you voluntarily enter, like a redress number for TSA, or an electronic authorization for Australia (which is linked to your passport information that your voluntarily provide), on your frequent flyer account or as part of your airline check-in.

 

Requiring proof of vaccine in some verifiable electronic system to go to your gym in the US, for instance, is probably multiple bridges too far! Simplifying entry to a concert or sporting event because you're voluntarily using CLEAR has some of the same privacy considerations, but you're already giving them finger prints and an iris scan for your convenience to bypass the line at the airport. If there's a system, it's going to have to be voluntary. (The argument that it's not voluntary if you can't travel without it is interesting and irrelevant. You basically can't fly to Australia, when you can again, without their electronic authorization tied to your passport; you voluntarily chose to fly to Australia and to do so, you had to meet their requirements.)

I would expect that someone would have the option of not putting their vaccine information into the system (whatever it might be) since it would fall under medical records.  So entry would probably be optional, but then anyone not participating would not get the benefit of their being vaccinated where ever the system is used.

[zitsky]

It's a vaccine record.  Not the mark of the Beast.

[4774Papa]

We have a safari in Kenya and Tanzania in July/August (postponed from last year) and our safari tour company has arranged for us to have the COVID19 PCR test three days prior to flying out of the country, per Tanzanian government order.   We will be in the Serengeti when tested and apparently the testing company will forward the results via email/text to our phones.

 

It seems to me that the local health department has a record that I received the two doses of the vaccine. I have a card about double the size of a business card documenting that.  The Health Department could provide me with an email or text (at my choice) with the results on my smart phone to show airlines or cruise lines.

[markeb]

9 minutes ago, 4774Papa said:

We have a safari in Kenya and Tanzania in July/August (postponed from last year) and our safari tour company has arranged for us to have the COVID19 PCR test three days prior to flying out of the country, per Tanzanian government order.   We will be in the Serengeti when tested and apparently the testing company will forward the results via email/text to our phones.

 

It seems to me that the local health department has a record that I received the two doses of the vaccine. I have a card about double the size of a business card documenting that.  The Health Department could provide me with an email or text (at my choice) with the results on my smart phone to show airlines or cruise lines.

 

I need to see what she got from them, but within a day or so of receiving her second dose, the health care group vaccinating teachers here forwarded a record of vaccination document to my wife. We've been planning to upload that to our local military health care facility and hopefully they can post that to her permanent records. I think that's what you'd ultimately really want anyway.

[nocl]

4 hours ago, NMTraveller said:

This report kind of makes you wonder why don't we get every one the first dose and then go back for the second?  Both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are more effective after the first dose than the J&J.

Keep in mind that efficacy number only give a value for that clinical trial at that point in time.

 

J&J trials occurred at a different time, when more variants were in circulation.  The cases in the US were at its peak so the people in the trial were likely to be exposed to more virus.

 

While they are usually good indicators of performance you really cannot compare them based upon clinical trial results  unless you have actually done a trial which is doing a head to head comparison between different vaccines, which no one has done yet.

 

The time between doses is set based upon the period they have data for (based upon the Clinical trial numbers).  That is why the duration is set in the product label.

[mayleeman]

3 hours ago, zitsky said:

 

I don't understand your analogy.  Isn't Real ID law of the land?  Myself I'm not afraid of having my name in some computer if it lets me travel again.

 

Real ID is indeed the law. The law sets requirements that have to be adhered to by the states, who all keep their own DMV databases rather than the feds consolidating it all. My point is simply that there is a strong anti-federal sentiment that opposes any type of federal database tied to IDs. That longtime opposition is why the national databases in other countries (mentioned by someone above) would not work here.

 

Interestingly, both the left and the right fear a national ID system for fear of how the database information could be tapped for surveillance and other reasons beyond the original purpose.

 

ACLU: https://www.aclu.org/other/5-problems-national-id-cards

 

Cato Institute:   https://www.cato.org/policy-analysis/new-national-id-systems

 

(The opposition to federal IDs is also why federal background check records for gun purchases are supposed to be destroyed within 24 hours.)

Edited March 29, 2021 by mayleeman