They should be upfront about Inspiration and Fantasy soon

[EscapeFromConnecticut]

15 hours ago, drsel said:

At this rate, if they keep on selling more ships, their capacity will be severely reduced and cruise fares will go up substantially after this virus pandemic is over.
I am looking forward to the virus becoming extinct but not inflated Cruise fares.

We've known since April that capacity would ultimately be reduced by A LOT.

 

Will all three major lines survive 2021? Well, if they do ... they'll each be half-sunk by the tankerloads of new debt they're taking on. So very clearly the long-term plan will be higher fares, new high-pressure add-ons and tons of new fees ... they'll be desperate for the revenue, and high volume simply isn't going to be on the table any longer.

 

The folks who underestimated the coronavirus' devastating impact on the cruise industry turn out to be more wrong-headed every day.

[xDisconnections]

7 hours ago, salty dingo said:

Inflated cruise fares would only occur if demand remained strong. This cruiser is totally done sailing for the foreseeable future, and I suspect I am not alone. So fewer ships combined with weak demand may not result in higher prices. In fact, if the prices did rise, demand would surely fall, and the business model of mass market cruising may no longer work. You can see it in the stock prices now, and I think they could fall a lot more.... perhaps to zero. 

I’m still undecided and haven’t pulled the trigger on any new bookings. I’m glad I voluntarily canceled my Allure TA for a full refund instead of waiting for a cruise cancellation with an FCC attached to a company with an expiration.

 

If the No Sail Order gets extended once more, I’m likely to voluntarily cancel my January cruise on the Sky Princess prior to entering a penalty period. It’s not my intention to be among the first few cruises to sail again nor do I think I would enjoy a modified/limited experience with a mask requirement. As of now, I can only hope my Europe cruise next year will go as planned but my confidence just isn’t there.

Edited July 20, 2020 by xDisconnections

[xDisconnections]

3 hours ago, EscapeFromConnecticut said:

We've known since April that capacity would ultimately be reduced by A LOT.

 

Will all three major lines survive 2021? Well, if they do ... they'll each be half-sunk by the tankerloads of new debt they're taking on. So very clearly the long-term plan will be higher fares, new high-pressure add-ons and tons of new fees ... they'll be desperate for the revenue, and high volume simply isn't going to be on the table any longer.

 

The folks who underestimated the coronavirus' devastating impact on the cruise industry turn out to be more wrong-headed every day.

Profits from onboard sales will not be anywhere near as high as they were in the past. Not only will occupancy (and thus, onboard sales) be reduced, you also have to remember many of these passengers — especially the earlier ones — will each have a $600 base onboard credit (plus shareholder, early saver, promo, goodwill, credit card, casino, future cruise deposit on some lines, plus etc. if applicable). Although some onboard sales such as F&B have an actual cost of pennies on the dollar, it’s missed revenue that the company could have previously collected on before the goodwill gesture was offered.

Edited July 20, 2020 by xDisconnections

[cruisin from vegas]

Just an FYI...  my Inspiration booking for 10/2 completely disappeared yesterday.  It’s still missing, doesn’t exist.  (However it still shows you can book this sailing on line???). My PVP, who is a close friend and was going with me, said  hers is gone too..  They have not received  any official info from Carnival, but she can’t book Inspiration from her end as of yesterday.  She said info coming soon

[SOCACRUISEGUY]

4 minutes ago, cruisin from vegas said:

Just an FYI...  my Inspiration booking for 10/2 completely disappeared yesterday.  It’s still missing, doesn’t exist.  (However it still shows you can book this sailing on line???). My PVP, who is a close friend and was going with me, said  hers is gone too..  They have not received  any official info from Carnival, but she can’t book Inspiration from her end as of yesterday.  She said info coming soon

My 10/09 sailing of the Inspiration is still showing on my account. I highly doubt they have cancelled cruises without making an announcement first. We shall see.

[EscapeFromConnecticut]

10 hours ago, xDisconnections said:

Profits from onboard sales will not be anywhere near as high as they were in the past. Not only will occupancy (and thus, onboard sales) be reduced, you also have to remember many of these passengers — especially the earlier ones — will each have a $600 base onboard credit (plus shareholder, early saver, promo, goodwill, credit card, casino, future cruise deposit on some lines, plus etc. if applicable). Although some onboard sales such as F&B have an actual cost of pennies on the dollar, it’s missed revenue that the company could have previously collected on before the goodwill gesture was offered.

Yes. All of this is true ... and exactly why fares will rise, and why pressure for add-ons, up-sells, surcharges, fees & the like will be ramping up dramatically.

The handwriting has been on that wall since March, and several of us have been telling CC folks about it all along. (Despite sarcastic, angry and uninformed attacks for being "gloom and doom," "bashers" and similar nonsense).
 

The old business model of endlessly increasing passenger volume died when COVID-19 arrived. Any cruise lines that survive into 2021 will have fewer ships, new capacity limits and a vastly smaller customer base. Their real fear should be the finances of those customers: If the second coronavirus wave forces new shutdowns through the winter, the economic damage & job losses will be monumental. That means even fewer customers ... and many of them with substantially less disposable income than they have today.

 

[xDisconnections]

3 minutes ago, EscapeFromConnecticut said:

Yes. All of this is true ... and exactly why fares will rise, and why pressure for add-ons, up-sells, surcharges, fees & the like will be ramping up dramatically.

The handwriting has been on that wall since March, and several of us have been telling CC folks about it all along. (Despite sarcastic, angry and uninformed attacks for being "gloom and doom," "bashers" and similar nonsense).
 

The old business model of endlessly increasing passenger volume died when COVID-19 arrived. Any cruise lines that survive into 2021 will have fewer ships, new capacity limits and a vastly smaller customer base. Their real fear should be the finances of those customers: If the second coronavirus wave forces new shutdowns through the winter, the economic damage & job losses will be monumental. That means even fewer customers ... and many of them with substantially less disposable income than they have today.

 

Great post.

 

The future of cruising will not be what we remembered it as.

[PhillyFan33579]

7 minutes ago, EscapeFromConnecticut said:

Yes. All of this is true ... and exactly why fares will rise, and why pressure for add-ons, up-sells, surcharges, fees & the like will be ramping up dramatically.

The handwriting has been on that wall since March, and several of us have been telling CC folks about it all along. (Despite sarcastic, angry and uninformed attacks for being "gloom and doom," "bashers" and similar nonsense).
 

The old business model of endlessly increasing passenger volume died when COVID-19 arrived. Any cruise lines that survive into 2021 will have fewer ships, new capacity limits and a vastly smaller customer base. Their real fear should be the finances of those customers: If the second coronavirus wave forces new shutdowns through the winter, the economic damage & job losses will be monumental. That means even fewer customers ... and many of them with substantially less disposable income than they have today.

Good post. I think a challenge Carnival is going to face is the demographic Carnival has focused on over the last several years is likely to be among the hardest hit financially by this virus. 

[EscapeFromConnecticut]

1 minute ago, PhillyFan33579 said:

Good post. I think a challenge Carnival is going to face is the demographic Carnival has focused on over the last several years is likely to be among the hardest hit financially by this virus. 

 

Absolutely. And no doubt, RCI will be scraping along that same iceberg.

And HAL has a particularly awful outlook: On the health front, not on finances. The profile of its cruisers (largely old or outright elderly, often with serious health conditions) looks like a mirror of the most dangerously at-risk population for COVID.

It seemed back in March and April that Princess might be CCL's best choice to sacrifice, but now you'e got to wonder whether HAL could even hope to sustain more than a ship or two. 

[xDisconnections]

39 minutes ago, cruisin from vegas said:

Just an FYI...  my Inspiration booking for 10/2 completely disappeared yesterday.  It’s still missing, doesn’t exist.  (However it still shows you can book this sailing on line???). My PVP, who is a close friend and was going with me, said  hers is gone too..  They have not received  any official info from Carnival, but she can’t book Inspiration from her end as of yesterday.  She said info coming soon

 

32 minutes ago, SOCACRUISEGUY said:

My 10/09 sailing of the Inspiration is still showing on my account. I highly doubt they have cancelled cruises without making an announcement first. We shall see.

Why would you doubt that? If there’s anything we have learned, this fits exactly to the model of previous cancellations. Disappears, make an excuse, cancel a few days later, surprised Pikachu meme.

[xDisconnections]

9 minutes ago, PhillyFan33579 said:

Good post. I think a challenge Carnival is going to face is the demographic Carnival has focused on over the last several years is likely to be among the hardest hit financially by this virus. 

Plus, if Carnival’s intention is to increase cruise fares, there’s going to be quite some challenge to do so. Once you lower your rate to attract revenue on the heads in beds model, it makes it increasingly difficult to get it back to where it was. During the pandemic, most upper midscale and luxury hotels did not drop their rates in an effort to preserve rate integrity and the desirable clientele they target their property to. For the hotels that dropped rates, projections and forecasts suggest a two year period for occupancy, ADR and RevPAR to return to pre-Covid levels.

 

Carnival has dropped their rates exceedingly low and the consumers became familiar with them. How will they justify paying double the current price? It’s a downward spiral that Carnival will have a tough time getting out of without pricing out their target demographic.

[sunviking82]

3 minutes ago, EscapeFromConnecticut said:

 

Absolutely. And no doubt, RCI will be scraping along that same iceberg.

And HAL has a particularly awful outlook: On the health front, not on finances. The profile of its cruisers (largely old or outright elderly, often with serious health conditions) looks like a mirror of the most dangerously at-risk population for COVID.

It seemed back in March and April that Princess might be CCL's best choice to sacrifice, but now you'e got to wonder whether HAL could even hope to sustain more than a ship or two. 

 

Just like "no one will every fly again" after 9/11, this too shall pass.  The cruiselines will be dumping old tonnage that was due for heavy maintenance just like the airlines and if they need too, they file for bankruptcy next year.  

 

Princess was never at risk, it's the world's most recognized line and has the biggest loyal following (sorry CCL/RCL fans but number of repeat and PCC numbers support this).  HAL will be smaller for sure, as will Carnival (go bye to all or most Fantasy class ships), Princess is shifting it's fleet to other brands as new ships come on line and the Eurpoean 4 will will dropping a ship here and there but still have good demand.  

 

Future, all the big 3 (4 if you include MSC) will survive but will be different the next few years.  Growth will come back in 2023 - 2025 but fares will be flat to encourage people to come back.

[xDisconnections]

7 minutes ago, EscapeFromConnecticut said:

 

Absolutely. And no doubt, RCI will be scraping along that same iceberg.

And HAL has a particularly awful outlook: On the health front, not on finances. The profile of its cruisers (largely old or outright elderly, often with serious health conditions) looks like a mirror of the most dangerously at-risk population for COVID.

It seemed back in March and April that Princess might be CCL's best choice to sacrifice, but now you'e got to wonder whether HAL could even hope to sustain more than a ship or two. 

HAL is in a bad spot, no question. And Princess has a similar demographic (but not as old) as HAL on longer cruises.

[BlerkOne]

Gee, I read about fares skyrocketing and plummeting at the same time. You guys need to get on the same page with the doom and gloom jazz. All cruise lines are in the same boat as far as cruising from the US.

[cruisin from vegas]

50 minutes ago, xDisconnections said:

 

Why would you doubt that? If there’s anything we have learned, this fits exactly to the model of previous cancellations. Disappears, make an excuse, cancel a few days later, surprised Pikachu meme.

This is a rebook (3rd time), this is exactly what happened the last two times.  Also, I booked the Queen Mary Hotel for the night before(I was a tour guide there in the 80s, I am also a past Carnival Crew Member).  I received an email from Queen Mary Hotel Cancelling my reservation, as they do not anticipate being open in October.  The Queen Mary is permanently berthed literally a few yards from Carnivals dock, they share a parking lot.  So I don’t know, but this is the current events as of right now 

Edited July 20, 2020 by cruisin from vegas

[BlerkOne]

16 minutes ago, xDisconnections said:

During the pandemic, most upper midscale and luxury hotels did not drop their rates in an effort to preserve rate integrity and the desirable clientele they target their property to.

 

During the pandemic? The US is still in the middle of the first wave. Many hotels flat out closed and most reduced the level of service to something less than would normally expected. My most recent hotel stay was an Embassy Suites for a price I would normally associate with La Quinta or perhaps Motel 6. I shared the hotel with a large number of National Guard who were operating testing stations. But at least the front desk still gave me drink and breakfast coupons.

[cruisin from vegas]

1 hour ago, cruisin from vegas said:

Just an FYI...  my Inspiration booking for 10/2 completely disappeared yesterday.  It’s still missing, doesn’t exist.  (However it still shows you can book this sailing on line???). My PVP, who is a close friend and was going with me, said  hers is gone too..  They have not received  any official info from Carnival, but she can’t book Inspiration from her end as of yesterday.  She said info coming soon

I just received an email from Carnival... thanking me for my “online selection” concerning my cancellation.  I did not cancel and I’ve paid in full.  So my PVP must have handled it for me .  She was going with me (long time friend).  So take it for what it’s worth,  but my 10/2 booking was cancelled by Carnival today.  After 4 cancellations, I just took a refund .  The email states information “concerning my cancelled cruise due to their recent announcement”...

Edited July 20, 2020 by cruisin from vegas

[xDisconnections]

22 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

 

During the pandemic? The US is still in the middle of the first wave. Many hotels flat out closed and most reduced the level of service to something less than would normally expected. My most recent hotel stay was an Embassy Suites for a price I would normally associate with La Quinta or perhaps Motel 6. I shared the hotel with a large number of National Guard who were operating testing stations. But at least the front desk still gave me drink and breakfast coupons.

The hotels that closed, for the most part, were limited service or hotels that were independently owned. A great majority of the full service properties remained open with minimal staffing and limited amenities. It's up to each individual property's revenue manager and on-property leadership to determine if they need to make the decision to drop rates or maintain higher ADRs. It may have been necessary for the hotel you stayed at but most properties in my compset and areas I frequently travel did not drop rates. For new areas I have been exploring and visiting in the near future without cruising available, hotel rates are not lower when compared to historical data trends

[cruisin from vegas]

I live in Vegas....  rates are dirt cheap!!  Come on down.  Very quiet And great deals..  by the way , a very few cases are being traced back to Casinos.  Mostly family gatherings, retail, etc

[BlerkOne]

1 hour ago, xDisconnections said:

The hotels that closed, for the most part, were limited service or hotels that were independently owned. A great majority of the full service properties remained open with minimal staffing and limited amenities. It's up to each individual property's revenue manager and on-property leadership to determine if they need to make the decision to drop rates or maintain higher ADRs. It may have been necessary for the hotel you stayed at but most properties in my compset and areas I frequently travel did not drop rates. For new areas I have been exploring and visiting in the near future without cruising available, hotel rates are not lower when compared to historical data trends

 

Are you speaking of only the US? What percentage is a "great majority?" Of those that remained open, did they block off floors, wings, whatever? Honolulu basically shut down. Governments in some other countries took care of the decision to close until things improved - e.g. England.

[SOCACRUISEGUY]

2 hours ago, cruisin from vegas said:

I just received an email from Carnival... thanking me for my “online selection” concerning my cancellation.  I did not cancel and I’ve paid in full.  So my PVP must have handled it for me .  She was going with me (long time friend).  So take it for what it’s worth,  but my 10/2 booking was cancelled by Carnival today.  After 4 cancellations, I just took a refund .  The email states information “concerning my cancelled cruise due to their recent announcement”...

Are you able to post the letter? Curious. 

Edited July 20, 2020 by SOCACRUISEGUY
Additional comment

[xDisconnections]

5 hours ago, BlerkOne said:

 

Are you speaking of only the US? What percentage is a "great majority?" Of those that remained open, did they block off floors, wings, whatever? Honolulu basically shut down. Governments in some other countries took care of the decision to close until things improved - e.g. England.

US only.

 

I only follow the hotel industry internationally from a leisure perspective instead of understanding the internal mechanics.

Edited July 20, 2020 by xDisconnections

[xDisconnections]

4 hours ago, SOCACRUISEGUY said:

Are you able to post the letter? Curious. 

It may have a notice of confidentiality at the bottom of the email signature.

[SOCACRUISEGUY]

26 minutes ago, xDisconnections said:

It may have a notice of confidentiality at the bottom of the email signature.

Good point. Curiosity always gets the best of me. 

[ew101]

A guess is there a game of cat and mouse going on with the ship brokers and scrap dealers.  They want to get a top price on any disposals - and probably want the scrap folks to be raising their bids.  Also they don't want to announce certain ships are to be scrapped and then have the scrap folks just wait and let them sit.  The resale market for older tonnage without balconies is probably terrible- just above scrap.   If they are holding their cards close to the vest - they can refuse to scrap a ship- and still run it.  This process is hard on passengers who are loyal to certain ships and making bookings.  Chengkp might be consulted here.  

Edited July 21, 2020 by ew101