Can we ever truly trust the cruise lines?

[getting older slowly]

16 minutes ago, Ride-The-Waves said:

  Its a grand Ponzi scheme from which there will be no winners.  Both the cruise lines and passengers will be losers.

 

No winners..... and think how many corporations can run without income for a year ......

 

something has to give.....

 

Don

[SelectSys]

1 hour ago, Ride-The-Waves said:

Worse than the limited COVID-19 issue, is cruise line deception on future schedules, FCCs, and prices of future cruises.  Cruise lines have mortgaged their futures to the tune of about $20Billion.  They continue to build new ships without regard to the threat from COVID-19.  They have to pay for their deception at some point by either charging hugely increased prices or drastically cutting services.  Both the lines and their passengers have come to expect maximum service and benefit, good cabins for a little money as possible.  Cruise lines have built their reputations on this premise.  Before "cruising" ocean liners were just about the only way to travel between continents and prices and services were expensive.  Today the average cruiser expects more for less.  In the future, when cruising restarts in some new format, prices will need to be much higher and services minimized to enable the lines to financially survive.  Will those who have "cruised" for fun be willing to pay the significantly higher costs to resume "cruising?"  Maybe - maybe not.  Cruising could quickly become the purview of the upper middle class and wealthy.  Problem is, of course, those people have many other options for "vacations."  The so called "lift and shift" games, FCCs, etc are just deceptions on the part of cruise lines to keep your money for the unknown future.  Its a grand Ponzi scheme from which there will be no winners.  Both the cruise lines and passengers will be losers.

 

Interesting post and thanks.

 

1. Remember, all these ship orders were made years ago.  The cruise lines are continuing to take ships because they are contractually obligated to do so and they are almost completed.  Lines have announced delaying the delivery of ships to be delivered in the out years.  Airlines have the same issue in terms of their orders for planes that aren't needed.  Look for more older ships to be scrapped.
2.  I am not sure about deception.  Prices go up and down based on competition and economic conditions.  I agree with you, prices are going up near term because the cost of doing business in the COVID-19 era is going up.  I am not sure if service will go down, but it wouldn't surprise me.  Cruising has been a great value and I hope it will remain so.
3.  If the average cruiser doesn't think the value remains with cruising, they will pick another way to vacation.  COVID-19 has reminded me that I have other options for travel including by car for extended trips.  
4. I think you are right in that with reduced capacity and higher prices, cruising may become less affordable to certain people.  I don't think this is limited to cruising.  I expect air travel to be more expensive as well. 
5. You are right people are gambling in terms of moving cruise reservations to the future.  I got a cash refund for my one outstanding cruise.  There was no way I wanted to be an unsecured creditor of a cruise line.  
6.  Having options and choice is a good thing.  I think this will might keep the cruise lines more restrained in terms of price increases.
7. I agree, there are very few winners coming out of COVID-19 and cruise lines have been one of the biggest losers.

 

Edited August 27, 2020 by SelectSys

[sfaaa]

The last cruise line left standing after COVID 19 will be the big winner. With little competition and a cruise market all to itself, there can be nowhere to go but up.

[SelectSys]

9 hours ago, sfaaa said:

The last cruise line left standing after COVID 19 will be the big winner. With little competition and a cruise market all to itself, there can be nowhere to go but up.

 

There is a lot of truth in this statement and I am not sure that cruise line survivors has been discussed here.  I think the lines that are smaller will have a tougher time.  For example, will Virgin Cruises ever carry a passenger?

 

My number 1 likely survivor that will profit out of COVID-19 is MSC.  MSC is a huge private company with a cargo business that allows them to be very patient on the cruise side.

 

This idea is worthy of its own thread.  We'll see if it gets started.

[chipmaster]

On 8/19/2020 at 5:12 AM, K32682 said:

 

The Costa Concordia and Oceanos suggest high expectations about the ethical standards of captains are misplaced.  

 

You are mistaken, the expectations aren't misplaced.

 

You can create systems where the people matter less, but without single point of accountability / decision runs the risk to have things run crazy and be only good as the "system"    of course if you depend on a person as we saw those single point of failure can be terrible to.  There is a reason their is officers, and hopefully in moments of crisis there is enough systems in place the collective leaders can react when the leader does irrational or poor judgment... of course in moments of crisis decisions must be made on split second.    

 

Ship accidents are often things that could have change if there was ability to over rule the captain as our policy in governments to mayhem or pandemics, but things like on airplanes are less positioned for such structure.

 

 

Edited August 27, 2020 by chipmaster