COVID-19 Surging Across Europe

[Arizona Wildcat]

22 hours ago, nocl said:

Vietnam, Japan, Singapore, South Korea have all been successful in controlling Covid. 

 

People in those countries are used to following directions and accepting a lockdown.  In Australia. People in and near Melbourne were not allowed to travel outside their home except for food, caregiving and medical except with a permit for MONTHS.  Would Americans accept that?  For a week?  Month?  4 months?

[Ride-The-Waves]

7 minutes ago, The_Big_M said:

 

Nope. It would comply - it's targeted only to international travellers, doesn't discriminate between them, and is the least restrictive compared to just letting it run rampant and hence reach 2nd and even 3rd waves as in the US - so obviously what is being done there is completely ineffective at achieving its ends.

 

You are observant.  In the US the current federal administration has essentially "given up" any sense of managing COVID-19 which implies a 3-month period where primarily local and state management of movement will be the process to control COVID-19 migration.  Not optimal.  And, not something non-US countries will be able to deal with as policies will vary and management will be jumbled.  Travel into and from the US will be restricted by others.  Cruising?  Forgetaboutit!  Even Caribbean countries will not be welcoming to US travelers.

[nocl]

3 minutes ago, Arizona Wildcat said:

People in those countries are used to following directions and accepting a lockdown.  In Australia. People in and near Melbourne were not allowed to travel outside their home except for food, caregiving and medical except with a permit for MONTHS.  Would Americans accept that?  For a week?  Month?  4 months?

if they were smart. they have put up with worse at times in the past.

[LGW59]

9 minutes ago, redjetz said:

 

actually, Southwest is now selling all seats. 

they are selling them but only for after Nov. 30, until then middle seats are empty

[Ride-The-Waves]

6 minutes ago, Arizona Wildcat said:

People in those countries are used to following directions and accepting a lockdown.  In Australia. People in and near Melbourne were not allowed to travel outside their home except for food, caregiving and medical except with a permit for MONTHS.  Would Americans accept that?  For a week?  Month?  4 months?

Those countries have more of a collective spirit and outlook than others, such as the US.  This is a good test to see if humanity can pull together to fight a pandemic.  In the meantime, religiously apply PPE and social distancing standards.

[Arizona Wildcat]

6 minutes ago, Ride-The-Waves said:

Unlikely that they will "sail along" with Schengen countries, the US and Canada closed to tourism much less cruise ships.  Limiting travel and restricting groups, attendance at sporting events, etc., is the only way known to medical professionals to limit to spread of COVID-19.  Even if/when a vaccine is approved and found effective it will be long while before it is available to the general public.  Plus, latest information is that it will take two "shots" to obtain effectiveness - with some to be determined time between the two.  That is around 16 billion doses which will take quite a while to dispense much less produce.  Tourists and "cruisers" will not be a high priority.

 

"Cruising" restart, with all the restrictions recommended by the CDC and the RCG/NCL study, by Summer 2021 is a very long shot.  And, it will require changes in the way we think of cruising...

The vaccines vary greatly.  2 doses are likely for maximum effectiveness.  Pfizer has millions of doses ready to go.  The rollout will be much more rapid according to our Department of Health.  Other pharma reported as having lots of vaccine ready to go.

We all await the time between doses.  A week or a month or more?  

I expect International travel to require proof of vaccination at some point next year.  Schools likely as well; especially colleges and universities.

[Arizona Wildcat]

10 minutes ago, Ride-The-Waves said:

 

You are observant.  In the US the current federal administration has essentially "given up" any sense of managing COVID-19 which implies a 3-month period where primarily local and state management of movement will be the process to control COVID-19 migration.  Not optimal.  And, not something non-US countries will be able to deal with as policies will vary and management will be jumbled.  Travel into and from the US will be restricted by others.  Cruising?  Forgetaboutit!  Even Caribbean countries will not be welcoming to US travelers.

A comment not meant to be political.  In the Western states there was a huge dispute between the States and Federal Government over what powers were reserved to the States.  The courts ruled that the Constitution reserved all powers to the state's not specifically assigned to the Federal Government.  Thus while one national policy might work better in dealing with the virus; the decision is with the states and we are dealing with inconsistent state polices.  I hope to recent agreement on vaccine distribution by the state's is handled efficiently.

FWIW Australia has states as well and the COVID policies vary from state to state.

 

[Gracie115]

7 hours ago, redjetz said:

 

actually, Southwest is now selling all seats. 

 

Not until December 1

[hcat]

Beware

Sw Air  keeps changing flight and times , and layover times.

Just got another change yesterday..messes up pick up plans, rental car needs etc but we are coping with it best we can.  Hope it settles down for the next reservation period which we think that starts Dec 10th...but they sometimes change that too.

 

 

 

[Ride-The-Waves]

9 hours ago, Arizona Wildcat said:

A comment not meant to be political.  In the Western states there was a huge dispute between the States and Federal Government over what powers were reserved to the States.  The courts ruled that the Constitution reserved all powers to the state's not specifically assigned to the Federal Government.  Thus while one national policy might work better in dealing with the virus; the decision is with the states and we are dealing with inconsistent state polices.  I hope to recent agreement on vaccine distribution by the state's is handled efficiently.

FWIW Australia has states as well and the COVID policies vary from state to state.

 

 

Agree.  However the federal government has the authority and the responsible to mandate policies for all Americans, be it safety or restrictive.  The CBO (Congressional Budget Office) tracks these and opines on costs.  Hundreds every year.  Public Law 116-22 is a good example enabling the federal government to preempt state policies for the benefit of all Americans:

 

This enables direct federal involvement in the security and safety of all Americans.  The US CDC is an agency which has cross-state authorities to implement procedures covering all Americans as we have all seen with its directives regarding cruising.

 

 

Edited October 29, 2020 by Ride-The-Waves

[PTC DAWG]

"cases" again for the win, meanwhile deaths continue to go down, they peaked late April of this year.  

 

 

[phoenix_dream]

12 hours ago, Arizona Wildcat said:

People in those countries are used to following directions and accepting a lockdown.  In Australia. People in and near Melbourne were not allowed to travel outside their home except for food, caregiving and medical except with a permit for MONTHS.  Would Americans accept that?  For a week?  Month?  4 months?

Would Americans accept that?  In a word, no.  But how does an economy survive in that type of situation?  I am not talking about keeping the Fortune 500 happy.  I am talking about the lower and middle class workers and small and medium businesses.  How do they pay the rent, food, medical bills, etc.. This is an honest question.  Can someone who lives in a country shut down for months like this clue me in on how your economy, and in turn your population, survived this economically?  We are struggling here greatly in those segments and no area has shut down that much for that period of time.

[PTC DAWG]

More food for thought on Covid..;

 

According to an August 26, 2020 CDC report, only 6% of reported COVID-19 deaths listed COVID-19 as the ONLY cause of death. At the time of this report, the total COVID-19 ONLY death toll was 9,684. For the other 94% of reported COVID-19 deaths, the CDC report said, “For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death.” The CDC listed the following as the top conditions contributing to deaths involving coronavirus disease:

influenza and pneumonia, respiratory failure, hypertensive disease, diabetes, vascular and unspecified dementia, cardiac arrest, heart failure, renal failure, intentional and unintentional injury, poisoning and other adverse events, other medical conditions

The COVID-19 Infection Fatality Ratio (IFR) - which is the best measure of death rate during an ongoing pandemic - is estimated by the CDC at 0.65% overall. The IFR varies widely when broken down by age group:

0-19 years: 0.00003 (0.003%) 1 of 30,000
20-49 years: 0.0002 (0.02%) 1 of 5,000
50-69 years: 0.005 (0.5%) 1 of 200
70+ years: 0.054 (5.4%) 1 of 20

On October 4, 2020, a group of highly esteemed and imminently qualified medical professionals released The Great Barrington Declaration in which they state the following:

“Fortunately, our understanding of the virus is growing. We know that vulnerability to death from COVID-19 is more than a thousand-fold higher in the old and infirm than the young. Indeed, for children, COVID-19 is less dangerous than many other harms, including influenza…. The most compassionate approach that balances the risks and benefits of reaching herd immunity, is to allow those who are at minimal risk of death to live their lives normally to build up immunity to the virus through natural infection, while better protecting those who are at highest risk. We call this Focused Protection…. Those who are not vulnerable should immediately be allowed to resume life as normal. Simple hygiene measures, such as hand washing and staying home when sick should be practiced by everyone to reduce the herd immunity threshold. Schools and universities should be open for in-person teaching. Extracurricular activities, such as sports, should be resumed. Young low-risk adults should work normally, rather than from home. Restaurants and other businesses should open. Arts, music, sport and other cultural activities should resume. People who are more at risk may participate if they wish, while society as a whole enjoys the protection conferred upon the vulnerable by those who have built up herd immunity.”
 

[TeeRick]

phoenix_dream,

I used to have employees in EU countries and the UK.  The unemployment laws and benefits are much different (and much more generous) than in the US.  I think that is one reason why many in non-US countries do not understand the urgency from a lot of the US population to open up states for employment reasons alone.  Many people here have to choose between risk of COVID infection vs. working to pay for food and shelter.  And basic health care.  A no win for many many Americans. Take a look at the article:

https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-nw-nyt-europe-unemployment-rate-covid-19-20200704-ihuzdo2kbngdxjnoxqxymejhj4-story.html

[TeeRick]

8 minutes ago, PTC DAWG said:

More food for thought on Covid..;

 

According to an August 26, 2020 CDC report, only 6% of reported COVID-19 deaths listed COVID-19 as the ONLY cause of death. At the time of this report, the total COVID-19 ONLY death toll was 9,684. For the other 94% of reported COVID-19 deaths, the CDC report said, “For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death.” The CDC listed the following as the top conditions contributing to deaths involving coronavirus disease:

influenza and pneumonia, respiratory failure, hypertensive disease, diabetes, vascular and unspecified dementia, cardiac arrest, heart failure, renal failure, intentional and unintentional injury, poisoning and other adverse events, other medical conditions

The COVID-19 Infection Fatality Ratio (IFR) - which is the best measure of death rate during an ongoing pandemic - is estimated by the CDC at 0.65% overall. The IFR varies widely when broken down by age group:

0-19 years: 0.00003 (0.003%) 1 of 30,000
20-49 years: 0.0002 (0.02%) 1 of 5,000
50-69 years: 0.005 (0.5%) 1 of 200
70+ years: 0.054 (5.4%) 1 of 20

On October 4, 2020, a group of highly esteemed and imminently qualified medical professionals released The Great Barrington Declaration in which they state the following:

“Fortunately, our understanding of the virus is growing. We know that vulnerability to death from COVID-19 is more than a thousand-fold higher in the old and infirm than the young. Indeed, for children, COVID-19 is less dangerous than many other harms, including influenza…. The most compassionate approach that balances the risks and benefits of reaching herd immunity, is to allow those who are at minimal risk of death to live their lives normally to build up immunity to the virus through natural infection, while better protecting those who are at highest risk. We call this Focused Protection…. Those who are not vulnerable should immediately be allowed to resume life as normal. Simple hygiene measures, such as hand washing and staying home when sick should be practiced by everyone to reduce the herd immunity threshold. Schools and universities should be open for in-person teaching. Extracurricular activities, such as sports, should be resumed. Young low-risk adults should work normally, rather than from home. Restaurants and other businesses should open. Arts, music, sport and other cultural activities should resume. People who are more at risk may participate if they wish, while society as a whole enjoys the protection conferred upon the vulnerable by those who have built up herd immunity.”
 

Individuals here might or might not agree with the Great Barrington Declaration.  But they should do some research and reading on it before they decide one way or the other.  Many national and world health organizations and eminent scientists have come out against it.  Just to be balanced here.  Not judging.

Edited October 29, 2020 by TeeRick

[Miaminice]

18 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

Many people here have to choose between risk of COVID infection vs. working to pay for food and shelter.  And basic health care.  A no win for many many Americans.

 

Correct - but sad at the same time!

[PTC DAWG]

52 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

Individuals here might or might not agree with the Great Barrington Declaration.  But they should do some research and reading on it before they decide one way or the other.  Many national and world health organizations and eminent scientists have come out against it.  Just to be balanced here.  Not judging.

No issues with that statement at all....lots of opinions out there...I choose to be more the sky is not falling, but I understand folks with a different take.  

[PTC DAWG]

13 minutes ago, Ride-The-Waves said:

 

 

 

Problem is that COVID-19 does not discriminate based on age.  Toddlers are dying, teenagers, healthy adults in their 20s.  The US president just survived stage 74.  

 

So, who should be selected to die and by whom?  

 

Just so a few people can go cruising again?  

0-19 years: 0.00003 (0.003%) 1 of 30,000. from the CDC and the post above..this is from people who actually get Covid....not the entire population.  I'm guessing there are many more deadly things for people in this age group than Covid...but we may be veering way off track here....

 

My point is that most things have a risk...what is that risk?  Is it acceptable?  IF not, good thing no one is forcing people to cruise, or even go outside during these times.  

Edited October 29, 2020 by PTC DAWG

[Ex-Airbalancer]

I don’t really see the death rate in the USA deceasing over last couple of months 

[Ride-The-Waves]

"Freedom" is a funny thing.  When I was attached to the US embassy in Bucharest as diplomat in1989/1990 the people overthrew their dictator Nicholai Ceaucescu.  He was a true despot.  Shortly after his death the Foreign Service Nationals at the embassy began questioning us about freedom, the freedom to congregate, and the freedom of speech.  Civics lessons for all.  However, most interesting might have been the reaction of the local citizen on the roads.  Cars during the Ceaucescu period were few and far between.  High party officials and similar had cars.  Within a couple of weeks more and more people owned cars.  The result was horrendous crashes at intersections.  Why?  Because "freedom" meant that you could do whatever you wanted.  Not paying attention to traffic signals being a prominent freedom.

 

Civilization knows that "freedom" does not imply your unmitigated ability to cause harm to others.  The CDC "no sail" order is one way that "freedom" is balanced with social responsibility.  We have to collectively work together to make sure that everyone on a cruise, everyone traveling to meet up with a cruise or on their way home, is safe from this horrible virus.  Collective effort is required, managed from those we hold responsible for our safety.  Europe, despite its increasing vulnerabilities in Phase II, does this much better than the US.  People understand the need for a collective response.  Hopefully, this will get us through the next phase and into better times when everyone can resume cruising and traveling.

[Gracie115]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/death-rates-have-dropped-for-seriously-ill-covid-patients/ar-BB1avfbY?ocid=msedgntp&fbclid=IwAR1YtbY5tEM776_Kh06VEr3EBoW8y0zukIUtIOIrD9039ZvYDo5sc4fWi_0

[Ex-Airbalancer]

Aida has canceled cruises in Germany 

https://www.seatrade-cruise.com/environmental-health/aida-halts-november-cruises-covid-spike-germany

[Quo Vadis?]

On 10/23/2020 at 9:39 PM, ABoatNerd said:

Well here in Toronto, we are increasingly locked down.

 

Beyond insane. 

So you Americans, it is not just your most dear country, gather your selves up and move forward USA.

Canada is not the paragon of success it has been portrayed in the media, by any means. Check out British Columbia.

 

 

 

As of Oct 29, USA is of course #1 with 27K cases per million, Canada Ranks 31st with 6K cases per million.

https://www.covid-19canada.com/

https://www.covid-19us.live/

 

 

Edited October 29, 2020 by Argo.

[cantstopingcruising]

35 minutes ago, Argo. said:

As of Oct 29, USA is of course #1 with 27K cases per million, Canada Ranks 31st with 6K cases per million.

https://www.covid-19canada.com/

https://www.covid-19us.live/

 

 I heard that the province of Quebec is worse than the US

 

 

[TeeRick]

1 hour ago, Ride-The-Waves said:

 

That's the problem, isn't it.  The reality is that those states decided to come together since the federal government was doing nothing.  Nada.  Zippo.  Federal "guidance" was that COVID-19 was going to go away on its own, that it wasn't a great to Americans, and the federal government was not going to help in any way.  Sadly, states had to strike on their own for the sake of their citizens.  I recall NY governor Cuomo pleading for Washington's assistance - and it falling on deaf ears.  States even started tracking cars with out-of-state license plates to ensure they "passed through" or if stopping, isolated for the required time.  Florida, which has the highest COVID-19 death rate, offered to do the same to states with low rates.  It was very political and driven from the White House.  In the end it caused tremendous confusion, exacerbated the pandemic, resulted in ballooning the curve, and now is the impetus for the rising infection and death rates.  In a sense this is what drives the CDC "no sail" order: lack of federal policy and action.  The primary reason we can't cruise.  Today Dr Fauci recommended a national mask requirement to prevent further expansion of the pandemic and to curb phase II.  Countries which have gone that route, restricted travel and required PPE, are so much safer than those who have taken a laissez fair attitude.  The federal government has a mandate to keep us safe.  The Department of Homeland Security was created just to do that.  So far, it has failed miserably.

R-T-W you are quite passionate posting pandemic related numbers and it seems clear that you hold parts of the US government to blame.  That is your right and I know lots of others agree with you and some do not.  But this is all very much political agenda on both sides.  Numbers can be used to support any argument out of context.  So why here on Cruise Critic where we try to keep politics out?  All I was trying to say in my post is that the political Blame Game has no end and does not really contribute to the solution. We are where we are no matter how we got here.  We are not cruising.  Even if the US handled this pandemic absolutely perfectly we would still not be cruising now.  There would still be the second worldwide wave as predicted.  The primary reason we cannot cruise is because there is a deadly virus worldwide.  Most countries outside the US could care less about the CDC and US "failed" policies and responses.  They have not been cruising either. Can we try to keep the politics at a minimum?  I know it is impossible for any of us to be entirely apolitical.