Cruising in 2022

[Daniel A]

This is truly a glass half full/half empty topic.  Some of the half empty posts are presuming that vaccinated people can still be asymptomatic super spreaders and some believe the vaccines will be a cure all.  I tend to lean more toward the latter group.  When scientists say there is no evidence that vaccines will make people immune from being contagious that doesn't mean that they wont be and it also means there is no evidence to show that it doesn't.  We'll just have to wait and see.

 

I'm not surprised to see that there is currently a slow startup.  It takes time to work the kinks out of a new program.  Some of the problem exists because of the way the levels of Government interact with each other.  Unfunded mandates are inherent in many government programs.  The federal government tells the state government to do something and then the state government tells the counties to do it who in turn tell the towns and villages to do it.  This is a recipe for confusion but it all works out over time.  Some jurisdictions will be more efficient and faster than others.  Another problem is that the press will focus on the jurisdictions having problems because that sells advertising.  This gives an overall false impression of the state of things.  The sky is not falling, give it some time.  The first vaccine was only approved about three weeks ago and the second only two weeks ago.

[mellon1]

17 minutes ago, Daniel A said:

This is truly a glass half full/half empty topic.  Some of the half empty posts are presuming that vaccinated people can still be asymptomatic super spreaders and some believe the vaccines will be a cure all.  I tend to lean more toward the latter group.  When scientists say there is no evidence that vaccines will make people immune from being contagious that doesn't mean that they wont be and it also means there is no evidence to show that it doesn't.  We'll just have to wait and see.

 

I'm not surprised to see that there is currently a slow startup.  It takes time to work the kinks out of a new program.  Some of the problem exists because of the way the levels of Government interact with each other.  Unfunded mandates are inherent in many government programs.  The federal government tells the state government to do something and then the state government tells the counties to do it who in turn tell the towns and villages to do it.  This is a recipe for confusion but it all works out over time.  Some jurisdictions will be more efficient and faster than others.  Another problem is that the press will focus on the jurisdictions having problems because that sells advertising.  This gives an overall false impression of the state of things.  The sky is not falling, give it some time.  The first vaccine was only approved about three weeks ago and the second only two weeks ago.

A lot of red tape, I agree.  The news...they are telling us what they want us to hear I believe.  I hate to turn it on anymore.  It is such a shame of all the people who lost their lives, businesses, homes, etc. etc.  My heart goes out to them.  I know it has been a struggle with us having our own business too.  The bills continue to come in.  You would think that everyone would work together for a common cause...The People and their futures and the futures of their children.  Seems so simple, but will never happen.

[Steelers36]

7 hours ago, caribill said:

 

People who are asymptomatic pre-vaccine can spread the disease.

 

It is not known yet if people who have been effectively vaccinated can spread the disease even if asymptomatic and not showing symptoms.

Yes, but my complete post was along the lines if "all" are vaccinated and that prevents COVID virus from doing anything bad, then it doesn't really matter if vaccinated people can "catch" and spread the virus.  It isn't known yet whether the virus is going to live on after vaccinations are largely rolled out. 

 

If people are still worried at that point, then maybe they ought to be worried about a lot of other health hazards that will present a greater chance of suffering and even death.

[Steelers36]

6 hours ago, HappyInVan said:

 

That's not how it works. Pre-symptomatic and some truly .asymptomatic people are infectious. You only need one to infect half a room, a congregation, a workplace. Just one to pass it onward to complete strangers on a bus and at a nightclub.

 

IMO, the same problem will occur with the vaccinations. People drop their guard, and outbreaks occur. Could have outbreaks up to the end of 2021. Possibly into the winter of 2021/2.

 

How's the situation in GTA? I would imagine that the very same thing is driving the weekly new highs?

 

 

I would agree that COVID-19 will still be around as vaccinations ramp up, but eventually it has to drop off.  An outbreak could be a minor thing as well.  For example, one person catching it in a retirement residence or LTC residence is termed an outbreak by the health authorities. 

 

We don't live in the worst hit areas of the GTA.  That said, it isn't small business and restaurant operators that are causing the problem.  Now you have more people trying to go to the open big boxes instead of being spread out less densely among other stores.  All businesses should be allowed to open with capacity controls.  If a large business or grocer can operate safely with 50% capacity or 1/3 capacity, then the small business can too.  They invested tons of money in equipment and such to keep staff and customers safe, followed government guidelines and then had rug pulled out from under them in a cudgel attempt to solve a problem. 

 

Brampton area claims it is essential businesses in their area that have a lot of employees working in close quarters that fuels the numbers.  True perhaps, but also many reports of large social gatherings.  South Peel county (south Mississauga) doesn't have near the same issue.  Halton county numbers going up lately likely due to creep of shoppers that came in from adjoining locked down areas.  I cannot really say what the main drivers are in Toronto - other than more densely populated and social interactions.  So far, they have even closed down ski resorts to the north, eliminating an outdoor, fresh-air exercise option.  Again, operators spent tons preparing for a season to include distancing and safe operations.  I just don't see the logic - it's arbitrary for sure.

 

I think the higher numbers coming in now are a result of pre-Christmas and Christmas gatherings, but they really don't have a lot of good contact tracing, so I don't know what the main sources are.  Perhaps they don't know, or they don't want to tell us.  If 90% of the cases are coming from social interactions, then it would lay to waster their reasoning for shuttering businesses.

[mellon1]

47 minutes ago, Steelers36 said:

I would agree that COVID-19 will still be around as vaccinations ramp up, but eventually it has to drop off.  An outbreak could be a minor thing as well.  For example, one person catching it in a retirement residence or LTC residence is termed an outbreak by the health authorities. 

 

We don't live in the worst hit areas of the GTA.  That said, it isn't small business and restaurant operators that are causing the problem.  Now you have more people trying to go to the open big boxes instead of being spread out less densely among other stores.  All businesses should be allowed to open with capacity controls.  If a large business or grocer can operate safely with 50% capacity or 1/3 capacity, then the small business can too.  They invested tons of money in equipment and such to keep staff and customers safe, followed government guidelines and then had rug pulled out from under them in a cudgel attempt to solve a problem. 

 

Brampton area claims it is essential businesses in their area that have a lot of employees working in close quarters that fuels the numbers.  True perhaps, but also many reports of large social gatherings.  South Peel county (south Mississauga) doesn't have near the same issue.  Halton county numbers going up lately likely due to creep of shoppers that came in from adjoining locked down areas.  I cannot really say what the main drivers are in Toronto - other than more densely populated and social interactions.  So far, they have even closed down ski resorts to the north, eliminating an outdoor, fresh-air exercise option.  Again, operators spent tons preparing for a season to include distancing and safe operations.  I just don't see the logic - it's arbitrary for sure.

 

I think the higher numbers coming in now are a result of pre-Christmas and Christmas gatherings, but they really don't have a lot of good contact tracing, so I don't know what the main sources are.  Perhaps they don't know, or they don't want to tell us.  If 90% of the cases are coming from social interactions, then it would lay to waster their reasoning for shuttering businesses.

Agree with you.  But I was talking to a friend who frequents the bars a lot and she said they are just getting together at peoples homes now with bars closed.  So people always find a way.  I agree to keep things open.  The people who want to go can and the ones that should not go because of issues, stay clear.  Everyone do their part and wear a mask and keep clean.  It is spreading and really I don't think anyone knows how.  It could be airborne.  I feel going on a plane and spending time in an airport is more hazardous.  Just my own opinion.  No where to get away from someone who is sick.  For other businesses not to open and loose everything they have worked for, mostly smaller business.  It is totally uncalled for and my heart goes out to them.  Until someone is in that position and has walked in their shoes, it is easy to say do this or do that.  For someone to loose their business income because of no fault of their own is to me totally uncalled for.  I also feel terrible for all those who have lost a loved one.  Fact is areas that have been shut down it is spreading...again, people find other ways to get together.  This is a new virus no one knows what is really going on I feel.  We will have to wait it out.  I feel masks will be the new norm.

[caribill]

3 hours ago, Steelers36 said:

That said, it isn't small business and restaurant operators that are causing the problem. 

 

The main benefit of masks is to help prevent those who currently have Covid-19 and are infectious (with our without symptoms) from spreading it to others.

 

In restaurants and bars people must take off the masks in order to eat and drink. Since outside eating is impractical in winter, inside eating and drinking is risky.

[Daniel A]

4 hours ago, Steelers36 said:

 

Did you make it to Florida yet?  🐊  🦈  🌴🌴 🙂

[Steelers36]

41 minutes ago, caribill said:

 

The main benefit of masks is to help prevent those who currently have Covid-19 and are infectious (with our without symptoms) from spreading it to others.

 

In restaurants and bars people must take off the masks in order to eat and drink. Since outside eating is impractical in winter, inside eating and drinking is risky.

Yes I know that, but in Ontario, there were capacity limits and limits per table.  I am saying these places weren't a primary cause of spread.  This doesn't include bars.  Wasn't trying to say there is no risk.  We had both inside and outside dining prior to the lockdown. 

 

(However, it was poorly conceived IMO - they set an arbitrary max at the highest level before lockdown, instead of percentage.  We were in a large cavernous place with friends in early Dec and limit was 10 - it would have been the same in a smaller cozy restaurant.)

Edited January 3, 2021 by Steelers36

[Steelers36]

14 minutes ago, Daniel A said:

Did you make it to Florida yet?  🐊  🦈  🌴🌴 🙂

Good memory!  Yes, our vehicle arrived in good condition from the truck shipment and was waiting for us when we flew in on Dec 28.  All is good and we are living in an area with less COVID-19 cases then back home.  Feel 100% safe in SW Florida.  People wear masks when in stores, for example.

[Daniel A]

7 minutes ago, Steelers36 said:

Good memory!  Yes, our vehicle arrived in good condition from the truck shipment and was waiting for us when we flew in on Dec 28.  All is good and we are living in an area with less COVID-19 cases then back home.  Feel 100% safe in SW Florida.  People wear masks when in stores, for example.

I'm glad to hear it.  Have you heard any news about whether or not you will be able to get the vaccine in Florida?  I have heard on the news that people over 65 are in the first group and that snowbirds will be able to get vaccinated here.  On the other hand, when I checked on the East Coast, it looks like Cleveland Clinic hospitals are the only ones getting the vaccine and they are only taking appointments from Cleveland Clinic patients.  I'm sure it will all work out but I'm very interested to hear what you have heard.

[Steelers36]

1 minute ago, Daniel A said:

I'm glad to hear it.  Have you heard any news about whether or not you will be able to get the vaccine in Florida?  I have heard on the news that people over 65 are in the first group and that snowbirds will be able to get vaccinated here.  On the other hand, when I checked on the East Coast, it looks like Cleveland Clinic hospitals are the only ones getting the vaccine and they are only taking appointments from Cleveland Clinic patients.  I'm sure it will all work out but I'm very interested to hear what you have heard.

I have heard same as you so far.  There are Walgreens and CVS nearby, but I have not checked into whether they are ramped up and I have not checked into other locations as yet.  May do so next week.  If it is possible, we may well do so.  We would need to be sure of timing to be able to get second shot as not yet available to us at home.  

 

I am not in a big rush right now, because I do believe the elderly vulnerable and front-line workers should be getting it first.  Also, if we go home vaccinated, it won't save us from mask protocols and such.  It ought to save us from the mandatory quarantine, but have not heard that discussed (I don't think our political and health leaders have contemplated a Canadian returning home vaccinated already).

 

[caribill]

49 minutes ago, Steelers36 said:

 We were in a large cavernous place with friends in early Dec and limit was 10 - it would have been the same in a smaller cozy restaurant.)

 

But the problem is not a family unit eating out, it is when people from different households get together whether in a private home or in a public place such as a restaurant. Even relatives from a different household or friends may be contagious and not know it.

 

As just one example:

https://people.com/health/couple-married-for-nearly-six-decades-die-of-covid-we-thought-we-did-everything-right/

 

Of course not every group of people who get together has someone contagious in it. But the virus is spreading because enough such get togethers do include someone who is contagious.

[Steelers36]

1 hour ago, caribill said:

 

But the problem is not a family unit eating out, it is when people from different households get together whether in a private home or in a public place such as a restaurant. Even relatives from a different household or friends may be contagious and not know it.

 

As just one example:

https://people.com/health/couple-married-for-nearly-six-decades-die-of-covid-we-thought-we-did-everything-right/

 

Of course not every group of people who get together has someone contagious in it. But the virus is spreading because enough such get togethers do include someone who is contagious.

What you write is true.  The story is sad - sadder even as they were not at all careless - but exceptions don't make the rule.  We don't know if they had any other health issues that might have made things worse. 

 

Anyone in the family unit could catch COVID at work, at grocery store.  So could a friend.  IMO, just as much chance of one or the other.  No worse getting together with another couple who are living safely versus a family member.  Homes are typically worse environments as they don't have the air exchange that commercial places often do.  

 

This discussion could go on and on and on (and it has among folks for months now), but the bottom line is if people pay attention to information, they know the risks and they can act accordingly for their own piece of mind and safety.

 

 

[HappyInVan]

Covid is an opportunistic disease, winning the war against us because of the mobility of its host (the humans), and our reluctance to make personal sacrifices. The disease will rampage in workplaces where management is lax...

 

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/class-action-lawsuit-filed-against-195750584.html

 

During the holiday season, its momentum comes from festive social gatherings. In BC, restrictions continue till at least January 6^th. Yet, there are people still ignoring the safety message...

 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/vancouver-police-respond-to-34-calls-for-new-year-s-eve-parties-hand-out-nearly-10-000-in-fines-1.5859488

 

Humans have evolved to depend on our familial and social groups for support and help. In a crisis, we turn to people we trust. The disease thrives because it targets this link. Eleven months after Wuhan, so many people are unable to override their instincts.

 

In April, I became bearish because of the inability of most societies to go on a war footing. Indecisive governments are the main facilitator for the pandemic.

 

In retrospect, East Asia and Australasia had the right strategy from day one. Don't trust people to do the right thing. Crush an outbreak quickly. Short term sacrifices for long term gains

 

The biggest problem on cruise ships are the groups of passengers travelling together. Inevitable that one infected passenger will infect others in their bubble. Cruises will have to be cancelled.

 

 

[JimmyVWine]

On 12/31/2020 at 8:42 PM, mellon1 said:

I value everyone's opinion on the board and wondered what everyone's thoughts are.  We have 6 B2B cruises doing the Caribbean starting 1/16/22 and are hoping we will be able to go.  ... What do you think the chances are of us being able to go ?  

Looking backwards, people were offering their opinions back in March that cruising would begin again in June or July.  In June and July, people were pretty sure that their Thanksgiving cruises were going to go, and were certain that the Christmas/New Years cruises were safe.  In October, after the relaxation of the No Sail order, many people were offering their opinions that by March, or April, we'd be sailing again, but under new rules.  And here we are in January with the highest number of new daily cases ever, the highest number of hospitalizations and ICU admissions ever, and the highest number of daily deaths ever.  Until these curves goes way, way down, my opinion is that we are as far away from cruising as we have ever been.  In the first wave of spiked numbers, lockdowns were ordered and they seem to have worked to some degree.  But there is little appetite for repeating that remedy even though the numbers are worse now than ever.  You have asked about cruises a year from now.  I have no idea.  But one thing is for sure.  The predictions here have been overly optimistic through no fault of anyone.  A second wave in the Fall/Winter was always anticipated, but I am not sure that anyone saw it getting this bad.  I'd like to think that the next 11 months will allow for better and faster testing as well as robust vaccination.  Will that be enough to allow for 6,000 passengers and crew to gather in close quarters?  My company is not anticipating a full return to the workplace for at least 6 more months where once upon a time we were looking at our return on a month by month basis.  Not saying that my company's HR department is predictive of what will happen to the cruise industry. But somebody out there thinks that things aren't getting any better any time soon.  

[voljeep]

36 minutes ago, JimmyVWine said:

But somebody out there thinks that things aren't getting any better any time soon.  

so then why are Princess cruise lines moving ships closer to USA destinations ( PE/FLL among others)

 

to get them cleared by CDC to begin sailing is my guestimate 

[paul929207]

JimmyVWine,

Are you on the Caribbean Princess? If so we are on for 42 days starting January 30. See you then.

[JimmyVWine]

15 minutes ago, voljeep said:

so then why are Princess cruise lines moving ships closer to USA destinations ( PE/FLL among others)

 

to get them cleared by CDC to begin sailing is my guestimate 

One does not follow from the other.  My company is hard at work getting the workplace ready to receive employees again.  But we won't be going back for at least 6 months.  Preparations are not an indication of imminence.  I mean, they could be. But it doesn't mean they must be.

[voljeep]

7 minutes ago, JimmyVWine said:

My company is hard at work getting the workplace ready to receive employees again. 

Interesting ...

 

Is your Company governed by the CDC ?

Is your Company still generating operating income ?

Is your Company having employees working from home ?

[Daniel A]

9 minutes ago, JimmyVWine said:

One does not follow from the other.  My company is hard at work getting the workplace ready to receive employees again.  But we won't be going back for at least 6 months.  Preparations are not an indication of imminence.  I mean, they could be. But it doesn't mean they must be.

 

Just now, voljeep said:

Interesting ...

 

Is your Company governed by the CDC ?

Is your Company still generating operating income ?

Is your Company having employees working from home ?

Jimmy-

 

Will your company be requiring employees to be vaccinated to return to work?

[JimmyVWine]

1 minute ago, voljeep said:

Interesting ...

 

Is your Company governed by the CDC ? CDC guidelines and recommendations certainly play a role in workplace safety and that includes my workplace.

Is your Company still generating operating income ? Are you suggesting that the generation of income is going to compromise safety decisions?  If Company A is earning money and Company B is not, Company B is going to take life-altering risks that Company A will not?  Scary thought.

Is your Company having employees working from home ? Yes.

 

See answers above.

[JimmyVWine]

5 minutes ago, Daniel A said:

 

Jimmy-

 

Will your company be requiring employees to be vaccinated to return to work?

 

Still to be determined.  Do we know for certain that Princess will require guests to be vaccinated to return to sailing?  If so, I won't be able to sail for a long time, as I am not in any category that allows for early vaccination.  Current estimates have me looking at Summer.

Edited January 4, 2021 by JimmyVWine

[caribill]

23 hours ago, Steelers36 said:

 

Anyone in the family unit could catch COVID at work, at grocery store.  So could a friend.  IMO, just as much chance of one or the other.  No worse getting together with another couple who are living safely versus a family member.  Homes are typically worse environments as they don't have the air exchange that commercial places often do.  

 

 

 

Here is an example of a person who avoided covid-19 by not attending a family gathering:

 

https://www.live5news.com/2021/01/04/womans-entire-sc-family-gets-covid-after-christmas-gathering/

[Steelers36]

1 hour ago, caribill said:

 

Here is an example of a person who avoided covid-19 by not attending a family gathering:

 

https://www.live5news.com/2021/01/04/womans-entire-sc-family-gets-covid-after-christmas-gathering/

Yup, there's a family gathering story - not strangers.  You never know where it might happen.

 

[Daniel A]

2 hours ago, JimmyVWine said:

 

Still to be determined.  Do we know for certain that Princess will require guests to be vaccinated to return to sailing?  If so, I won't be able to sail for a long time, as I am not in any category that allows for early vaccination.  Current estimates have me looking at Summer.

I think any cruise line would be foolish to not require vaccinated PAX and reduced capacity during the first few months of return to service.  All it will take is one or two severe outbreaks on a cruise ship and that particular line is likely gone forever.  Just my humble opinion.  I know that DW & I won't be setting foot on any ship that doesn't require proof of vaccination for every soul on the ship.  I am booked on a cruise in July.  I think that by then, there should be enough people vaccinated for a sailing even if it's at reduced capacity.