So Are things Looking up?

[RichYak]

15 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

I mean given a choice, most of the staff would not choose to eat Western food on a regular basis. They should not be forced to eat leftovers.

You don’t think leftovers are served? Stews, soups, currys, spring rolls, etc. they’re all made with leftovers and served to passengers and crew. 

[BlerkOne]

7 minutes ago, D C said:

Again, you're basing this on what?  

I see crew from a variety of heritages in OVC each evening, eating the buffet food.  I've talked to crew members who have commented on eating the buffet leftovers.  

Most crew don't have guest area dining privileges. I'll see if I can obtain a crew mess menu next cruise.

[D C]

8 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

Most crew don't have guest area dining privileges. I'll see if I can obtain a crew mess menu next cruise.

So you're postulating that buffet food simply gets thrown out and not offered to the crew.  On what are you basing this?

[BlerkOne]

6 minutes ago, D C said:

So you're postulating that buffet food simply gets thrown out and not offered to the crew.  On what are you basing this?

Reducing waste would include prepared food inventory management to reduce available food to throw away.  But I think this thread is beyond off whatever the original topic was.

[Ellaleah]

11 hours ago, terrydtx said:

11 hours ago, kirtihk said:

 

On our one and done cruise on NCL in 2017 in order to remove the service charge you had to request in writing with specific reasons and names as to why they should be removed. The last day of that cruise I was in line for guest services to question an item on my bill and the man in front of me was arguing with them about his service charges. He told them where he lived there was no tipping and he refused to pay on the ship. He was told by a supervisor that his excuse was not valid and he had to submit his request with specifics in writing. I have no idea how that came out.

Edited 11 hours ago by terrydt

I have only been on one NCL, but I cannot how bad a cruise experience woukd have to be for me to remove gratuities!

[CU64]

15 hours ago, kirtihk said:

Again, people do it all the time for years and years.  Why preventing it just now?  Strange timing.  Didn't any business concern about waste until just now? 

I believe that Covid lockdowns, no cruising, loss of revenue, staffing issues, particularly with fuller ships ..merits a restructuring of food delivery and waste. I also believe that the cruising culture is more entitled now which has not helped the situation.

[jean87510]

49 minutes ago, CU64 said:

I believe that Covid lockdowns, no cruising, loss of revenue, staffing issues, particularly with fuller ships ..merits a restructuring of food delivery and waste. I also believe that the cruising culture is more entitled now which has not helped the situation.

Entitled?  Can you give an example of how the cruising culture is like this now?

[kirtihk]

17 hours ago, D C said:

Would be nice, but it's failed every time it's been tried in the US. 

 

Cliffs Notes: American's are bad at math

Unfortunately, I noticed that.  I came to US 32 years ago from a country where math is an important school subject (similar to South Korea); so, I was shocked by what I observed here.  Besides, I'm mathematician by nature (a special math and physics school since I was 6).

 

Voyage, Voyage!!!

[kirtihk]

7 hours ago, CU64 said:

I believe that Covid lockdowns, no cruising, loss of revenue, staffing issues, particularly with fuller ships ..merits a restructuring of food delivery and waste. I also believe that the cruising culture is more entitled now which has not helped the situation.

By my observation, now, the word "entitled" is abused so much, actually (as many other "innocent" words).  That's what is a corrupt culture (brought up by irresponsible people) is these days.

 

Voyage, Voyage!!!

[kirtihk]

6 hours ago, jean87510 said:

Entitled?  Can you give an example of how the cruising culture is like this now?

Oh, I didn't see your comment before I replied to the comment on my previous statement.  Thank you!

Edited February 8, 2023 by kirtihk

[HMR74]

On 2/5/2023 at 8:09 AM, Georgia_Peaches said:

I agree with you regarding start up but in this case, Celebrity isn’t ramping up in their food offerings, they’re scaling back…on purpose. In fact, I’m gathering that the food offerings before Jan. 1 2023 were pretty much precovid normal. This is a calculated cost cutting measure brought about by Covid indeed, but not a result of ramping up slowly. Just my take on things. 

As some of you are aware, RCL, INC reported earnings  the other day and RCL lost money with a 95% occupancy rate. That rate is about 8% points lower than prepandemic (over100% due to holidays where cabins would be booked for 3 or 4) .

 

Even with the 95%, cash flow is still impared due to FCC being used. Much iof that money was spentby RCL a long time ago and now RCL is providing the service.

 

However the big issue that we know is happening but did not have it quantified, is debt service and specifically interest. Interest was 100 million a quarter pre pandemic and is now 430 million per quarter.  Thats ~1.3 billion more in annual interest. While food costs are continuing to move up  and energy costs too.

 

Bill Ackman, a top hedge fund manager asked the question of how the  customer base will respond to the RCL push to drive margins up via ancillary fees.

 

RCL lost 500 million in the 4th Q, with 2.6 billion of revenue. RCL pre covid had profits of 20% of sales but Return on investment is lower due to its being capital intensive.

It forecasts profits in 2023 of $3+ per share. A loss in first qtr. Cashflow should be positive.

 

It also has a lot of depreciation in its loss, just from Apex and Beyond, and more coming from Ascent and Icon and small ship Silver Nova.

 

The problem is debt service. No surprise.

 

Customer deposits were , no surprise at a record high of $4.2 billion at 12/31/22. The company has cash of 2.9 billion at 12/31/22--so not near healthy yet when they finance current operations with customer money.

 

hmm, 2/3 of revenue is on board vs tickets. Food is 7.6% of revenues so no bonanza there for cost cutting. Fuel  is big at 10% of revenue, but commissions are huge. I was once sent my TA's commission statement and I will only say what they gave me in OBC/rebate or price reduction was fair.

 

RCL has 3.2 billion of current liquid assets and 8.6 billion of current liabilities--thats part of the big problem.

 

and I bet the  other cruise lines are not much different

 

Its worth it if of course it interests you, to google rcl investors to see the Profit and Loss statement

 

any questions why X (and its competition)  is trying to find ways to increase cash flow?

 

 

 

 

Edited February 8, 2023 by HMR74

[Georgia_Peaches]

13 minutes ago, HMR74 said:

As some of you are aware, RCL, INC reported earnings  the other day and RCL lost money with a 95% occupancy rate. That rate is about 8% points lower than prepandemic (over100% due to holidays where cabins would be booked for 3 or 4) .

 

Even with the 95%, cash flow is still impared due to FCC being used. Much iof that money was spentby RCL a long time ago and now RCL is providing the service.

 

However the big issue that we know is happening but did not have it quantified, is debt service and specifically interest. Interest was 100 million a quarter pre pandemic and is now 430 million per quarter.  Thats ~1.3 billion more in annual interest. While food costs are continuing to move up  and energy costs too.

 

Bill Ackman, a top hedge fund manager asked the question of how the  customer base will respond to the RCL push to drive margins up via ancillary fees.

 

RCL lost 500 million in the 4th Q, with 2.6 billion of revenue. RCL pre covid had profits of 20% of sales but Return on investment is lower due to its being capital intensive.

It forecasts profits in 2023 of $3+ per share. A loss in first qtr. Cashflow should be positive.

 

It also has a lot of depreciation in its loss, just from Apex and Beyond, and more coming from Ascent and Icon and small ship Silver Nova.

 

The problem is debt service. No surprise.

 

Customer deposits were , no surprise at a record high of $4.2 billion at 12/31/22. The company has cash of 2.9 billion at 12/31/22--so not near healthy yet when they finance current operations with customer money.

 

hmm, 2/3 of revenue is on board vs tickets. Food is 7.6% of revenues so no bonanza there for cost cutting. Fuel  is big at 10% of revenue, but commissions are huge. I was once sent my TA's commission statement and I will only say what they gave me in OBC/rebate or price reduction was fair.

 

RCL has 3.2 billion of current liquid assets and 8.6 billion of current liabilities--thats part of the big problem.

 

and I bet the  other cruise lines are not much different

 

Its worth it if of course it interests you, to google rcl investors to see the Profit and Loss statement

 

any questions why X (and its competition)  is trying to find ways to increase cash flow?

 

 

 

 

Excellent breakdown of the financials.  Thank you!

[HMR74]

This whole issue with waste of food is part and parcel of the hospitality and restaurant business.

I worked the soda fountain in a restaurant when I was a teenager and KP in the Army, which is like sleeping at a Holiday Inn for experience.

 

 But my pay in the restaurant was made under the table and all the food I could eat. Kind of like it used to be on cruises.

 

Older, I had investments in restaurants  where we  always worked the balance of waste vs upsetting customers . The better run places come out just fine . Waste is a high level metric. The trick of course is to have enough so customers are happy,  but not too much. And not too many 86 on the prime rib. Small waste is expected and they can repurpose say Turkey for 2 days after Thanksgiving.

 

Cruise lines have a more complex problem in for example repositionings with many consecutive days at sea. Watch a you tube video of turnaround day. how that works .

 

If X is evaluating things constantly, and revising on the fly and intends to be a premium big ship line, then it should all work out but the sooner the better for everybody.  I think they erroneoursly over did it on the take aways.

 

 

Edited February 8, 2023 by HMR74

[NutsAboutGolf]

1 hour ago, HMR74 said:

As some of you are aware, RCL, INC reported earnings  the other day and RCL lost money with a 95% occupancy rate. That rate is about 8% points lower than prepandemic (over100% due to holidays where cabins would be booked for 3 or 4) .

 

Even with the 95%, cash flow is still impared due to FCC being used. Much iof that money was spentby RCL a long time ago and now RCL is providing the service.

 

However the big issue that we know is happening but did not have it quantified, is debt service and specifically interest. Interest was 100 million a quarter pre pandemic and is now 430 million per quarter.  Thats ~1.3 billion more in annual interest. While food costs are continuing to move up  and energy costs too.

 

Bill Ackman, a top hedge fund manager asked the question of how the  customer base will respond to the RCL push to drive margins up via ancillary fees.

 

RCL lost 500 million in the 4th Q, with 2.6 billion of revenue. RCL pre covid had profits of 20% of sales but Return on investment is lower due to its being capital intensive.

It forecasts profits in 2023 of $3+ per share. A loss in first qtr. Cashflow should be positive.

 

It also has a lot of depreciation in its loss, just from Apex and Beyond, and more coming from Ascent and Icon and small ship Silver Nova.

 

The problem is debt service. No surprise.

 

Customer deposits were , no surprise at a record high of $4.2 billion at 12/31/22. The company has cash of 2.9 billion at 12/31/22--so not near healthy yet when they finance current operations with customer money.

 

hmm, 2/3 of revenue is on board vs tickets. Food is 7.6% of revenues so no bonanza there for cost cutting. Fuel  is big at 10% of revenue, but commissions are huge. I was once sent my TA's commission statement and I will only say what they gave me in OBC/rebate or price reduction was fair.

 

RCL has 3.2 billion of current liquid assets and 8.6 billion of current liabilities--thats part of the big problem.

 

and I bet the  other cruise lines are not much different

 

Its worth it if of course it interests you, to google rcl investors to see the Profit and Loss statement

 

any questions why X (and its competition)  is trying to find ways to increase cash flow?

 

 

 

 

 

How does executive compensation factor into all of this?

[Cruising89143]

1 hour ago, HMR74 said:

This whole issue with waste of food is part and parcel of the hospitality and restaurant business.

I worked the soda fountain in a restaurant when I was a teenager and KP in the Army, which is like sleeping at a Holiday Inn for experience.

 

 But my pay in the restaurant was made under the table and all the food I could eat. Kind of like it used to be on cruises.

 

Older, I had investments in restaurants  where we  always worked the balance of waste vs upsetting customers . The better run places come out just fine . Waste is a high level metric. The trick of course is to have enough so customers are happy,  but not too much. And not too many 86 on the prime rib. Small waste is expected and they can repurpose say Turkey for 2 days after Thanksgiving.

 

Cruise lines have a more complex problem in for example repositionings with many consecutive days at sea. Watch a you tube video of turnaround day. how that works .

 

If X is evaluating things constantly, and revising on the fly and intends to be a premium big ship line, then it should all work out but the sooner the better for everybody.  I think they erroneoursly over did it on the take aways.

 

 

I admit to not having dug into the RCL Investor site since the earnings call other than to see that the new Edge Class #5 is not listed as future new builds like the RCI Icon and Silverseas Nova class ships are but I wonder what the occupancy level was for RCG’s three main core lines? It seems that Celebrity seems to be struggling to fill ships where RCI is not. Not sure about Silverseas as I don’t really pay attention to them. I cruised on three RCI ships in October/early November. All three was sailing above 100% occupancy. On the other hand our Solstice cruise in December was somewhere between 16-1700 guests. A far cry from a full ship. I can’t help but wonder if X is dragging down RCG financially? 

[NutsAboutGolf]

They could fix food waste with converting the self-serve buffet into more live cooking stations where things are made to order; the behind the scene buffet chefs only need to be brought to front.  It wouldn't cost very much as they already have several omelet stations.  Virgin was the first to try it and NCL followed

[NutsAboutGolf]

15 hours ago, CU64 said:

I believe that Covid lockdowns, no cruising, loss of revenue, staffing issues, particularly with fuller ships ..merits a restructuring of food delivery and waste. I also believe that the cruising culture is more entitled now which has not helped the situation.

 

The older generations calling the younger generations more entitled is nothing new

[HMR74]

35 minutes ago, NutsAboutGolf said:

 

How does executive compensation factor into all of this?

2 ways

part is "other" expense and in wages.

The other part is a failure of our SEC, supossedly the watchdog.

Accounting for options based comensation is not in expenses, it shows up as an adjustment to a companies retained earning  so everything balances out, but does not show up as an expense.

 

Remember last night the President said they were going to attack buybacks and do a minimum tax because companies are not paying their fair share. Well, thats kind of right. But the problem is the companies that do buybacks and options based compensation are overstating  income so the income is not there to tax. 

 

Its pretty complex and kept as a secret. About 8 years ago the SEC started looking at Buybacks and Options based compensation accounting.  Have you seen the report cause I have not.

 

Financial statements do not fairly present the companies financil position anymore. That changed in March 2009  when Congress allowed the banks to value the toxic mortgage bonds at full value to prevent financial implosions.

 

boring, huh? Well, we have been scammed because media cannot rat on their advertisers, and the rest of us do not spend time to understand it.

 

It was a business for me and now its just a hobby.

 

But it pays to know whats in your retirement portfolios, good stuff or  FTX or Enron or Madoff type of stuff. If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is.

 

 

 

 

Edited February 8, 2023 by HMR74

[HMR74]

16 hours ago, CU64 said:

I believe that Covid lockdowns, no cruising, loss of revenue, staffing issues, particularly with fuller ships ..merits a restructuring of food delivery and waste. I also believe that the cruising culture is more entitled now which has not helped the situation.

I think thats 3 different issues:

1) The lockdowns affected the cruising industry as much as  or more than any other business segment. No ppp for cruising industry cause they are foreign entities. A business decison was made to save on US taxes. Actually probably everybody here looks for ways to save taxes.  Some do it better  than others.

 

 

2) the business merits of food delivery and waste of food is also  a business decision at any time in any business indeoendent of lockdowns and new protocols. The goal of any compay is to make money-best way of course it to satisfy customers where they are repeat customers and referrals/

 

3) crusing culture is the rite of passage of time. Prime targets of business, any business has to respond to its target audience. Those of us in our 70's and 80's might be spending big money with cruise lines, but we are not the future base of cruise lines customers. The next or 2 generations down are. Transition out one group in with another. Real simple. 

 

Entitlement attitude is all over the place. the more senior folks have it as do the young and all in between.

 

[HMR74]

1 hour ago, cruisingator2 said:

I admit to not having dug into the RCL Investor site since the earnings call other than to see that the new Edge Class #5 is not listed as future new builds like the RCI Icon and Silverseas Nova class ships are but I wonder what the occupancy level was for RCG’s three main core lines? It seems that Celebrity seems to be struggling to fill ships where RCI is not. Not sure about Silverseas as I don’t really pay attention to them. I cruised on three RCI ships in October/early November. All three was sailing above 100% occupancy. On the other hand our Solstice cruise in December was somewhere between 16-1700 guests. A far cry from a full ship. I can’t help but wonder if X is dragging down RCG financially? 

 

back in 2020 , the cruise lines were hoping to be up and running at full speed by October because the Thanksging to New Years time frames are rather lucrative for cruise lines. Of course nothing sailed in the 4th Q of 2020

 

But the nature of cruising is different in those 5-6 weeks,

 

Schools out. We took our kids and grandkids On Oasis. normal capacity with 2 in a cabin is something  like 4700 for Oasis and full capacity is 6650 or thereabouts. We had 6550 on our cruise. Kids everywhere including in strollers, and the royal line esp the Oasis class mostly had that extreme over thanskgiving and Xmas and new years. Just a 40%  sudden ramp up to 40% over capacity which skews the numbers.

 

I doubt any X ships came even close to that. The kids would not have been as happy on X. the pools were mostly for kids. yada yada

 

I assume first quarter even wth springbreak wil skew to the favor of X but its difficult to see X getting any numerous  3 or 4 to a cabin situations. Better these families go to royal for the comlete kids package.

 

this I think is rolling over of existing debt

https://www.rclinvestor.com/press-releases/release/?id=1642

 

The 10k , a 260 page report probably has the details by cruise line, but I ain't gona dig that deep,  I just want the prime rib meat and potatos.

 

This is last years:

https://app.quotemedia.com/data/downloadFiling?webmasterId=101533&ref=116506312&type=PDF&symbol=RCL&companyName=Royal+Caribbean+Group&formType=10-K&dateFiled=2022-03-01&CK=884887

 

Be my guest-it will be out in March.

https://www.rclinvestor.com/financial-info/sec-filings/

 

 

[CU64]

5 hours ago, NutsAboutGolf said:

 

The older generations calling the younger generations more entitled is nothing new

The younger generation is not a high percentage of cruisers. I was referring to the current demographic on most cruises. 

[TeeRick]

14 hours ago, NutsAboutGolf said:

 

How does executive compensation factor into all of this?

At $1.3 billion annually in increased debt service charges, everything else in operating expenses is a drop in the bucket.

[HMR74]

36 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

At $1.3 billion annually in increased debt service charges, everything else in operating expenses is a drop in the bucket.

Revenue wil be in the 15 billion range. total interest expense will be 1.5 billion or more.

difficult for an operating company when interest is 10% of revenues.

pre pandemic RCL was showing 20% operating profit on revenues.

 

at 95% capacity if they get to the same 104%, that extra 9% mostly falls to bottom line

And they wil get top dollar oo Ascent and Icon because people are willing to pay for it because portfolios are doing well.

 

PS, just for giggles, the debt offering next week is at 7.5%. there is 4.2 billion of customers deposits. ]

 

when we make final payment on a 10,000 cruise 90 days before, thats imputed interest savings to RCL of $187.

 

More giggles -trivia-prices have gone up quite a bit, yet OBC from X on a 14 day cruise is 400pp  and that was true  for 2020 cruises cancelled and 2023 and 2024 cruises where Aqua costs about twice as much, individual mileage and prices vary. Shore excursions are way up and specialty dining and internet and drinks are way up.  OBC has been devalued. by ~50%.

 

If it bothered  me a lot I would have reached out to X. But its just one more annoyance. What does bother me is with things like room service charges, and when I wil go ala carte for premium over classic drinks my invoice at end of cruise is anyting but all inclusive premium line and I hate to review invoices /statements.

 

 

 

 

Is my last line just now pretty much true?  If so, then as long as markets stay up people in the older generations will spend and spend on suites and specialty dining and first class flights. Its the rest of the population thas going to be stressed.

Edited February 9, 2023 by HMR74

[terrydtx]

As others and I have said here, the cutbacks and new cruise pricing by Celebrity is forcing us "savvy" suites customers to be looking at more premium cruise lines. Last year we had a Baltic cruise booked with Oceania that we canceled after the Ukraine invasion by Russia because of stops in Russia. I just looked at the Oceania website and they have the same 10 day cruise in 2024 minus the stops in Russia for the exact same price we were booked last year.  At least Oceania is not elevating pricing for their future cruises like Celebrity.

 

We have stayed loyal to Celebrity because of the Retreat product and that for us it was affordable, until now. Our loyalty is evaporating very quickly with the future suites pricing. 

[HMR74]

9 minutes ago, terrydtx said:

As others and I have said here, the cutbacks and new cruise pricing by Celebrity is forcing us "savvy" suites customers to be looking at more premium cruise lines. Last year we had a Baltic cruise booked with Oceania that we canceled after the Ukraine invasion by Russia because of stops in Russia. I just looked at the Oceania website and they have the same 10 day cruise in 2024 minus the stops in Russia for the exact same price we were booked last year.  At least Oceania is not elevating pricing for their future cruises like Celebrity.

 

We have stayed loyal to Celebrity because of the Retreat product and that for us it was affordable, until now. Our loyalty is evaporating very quickly with the future suites pricing. 

two part response  agreeing with your evaluation

1) I will be doing a 5 week land trip in Southern Europe late spring rather than cruising. Its more work to plan and takes energy once there as we go to 8 places. However its far less expensive and far more  immersive in local culture tradition and food. Our Airbnb places -each one a minimum of 400 sq feet, Venice was king of tough to find a big place and all except Venice have terraces. 400sq ft is more space than a SS cabin, but these places have their "quirks" and we kind of like that.

Good lord willm we wil be in Rome when Andreas Bocelli is performing Jun 10--but ticket prices are 2k minimum vs 100 on his US tour.

 

2) We booked a 9 day cruise next winter , as a get away, in side cabin. The cost with AI classic drink is 3400 list. 4 years ago we paid 3300 for Aqua  Transatlantic.  Its taking a lot of control to keep from upgrading to a balcony of Aqua but I do not see the value in that . We wil see how that turns out. Perhaps a move up .

 

FWIW, I upgraded the internet on line and the price was $234. Then I woke up and realized I get a discount, but you have to call in for that. When they did it, the price was 3.82  more than it should  be, and I sent a letter to X stating the problem.

 

3.82 is basically petty cash. However, with 3,000 people on a ship and 16 ships, if only 10% upgrade and get mispriced thats 3.82 times 4800 or 18,000 per week, or a million a year. Petty cash adds up.