CCL High Debt /what is Your Opinion

[mcrcruiser]

Unfortunately ,not their  fault ;but this very high debt  with rising interest rates is causing their prices to us to go up across the board. However , imo I rather see the prices go up than quality of food ,service & entertainment diminish.   Right now we are seeing things l like Canaletto new menu with a price  increase with fewer pricier ingredients like lamb chops & steak  .I think that is a big mistake .Yes raise the prices but stop cutting back quality  & choices   .In  December ,I commented to my wife that Tamarind on Koningsdam was not as good as we first experienced pre covid on Eurodam ,our first experience for Tamarind .

 

 Ultimately from a pure marketing focus  if CCL continues to both raise prices & cut back quality ,they will finf less numbers cruising on their lines   .This same scenario would also hold true for any othe mass market cruiser line 

[mcrcruiser]

We also sold some of the CCL stock to take profits ;as it has  run up nicely  .however ,with the interest on this huge debt ,there is no way for CCL to show a profit so still loosing x money .

[OlsSalt]

I'll take more pasta and less lamb if it keep prices down. We don't cruise to eat - just get reasonably fed. One can dine well, and still dine economically.  

 

Long cruise often devolve into simple eating anyway, after the initial novelty wears off. 

The thread of "losing customers" if they don't continue to incur more debt to keep them pretending everything is the way that it was pre March 2020, is compared to losing customers entirely had they not incurred  the debt to simply tread water and sail another day.

 

We have to cut this industry some slack, is what I think. 

[mcrcruiser]

2 minutes ago, OlsSalt said:

I'll take more pasta and less lamb if it keep prices down. We don't cruise to eat - just get reasonably fed. One can dine well, and still dine economically.  

 

Long cruise often devolve into simple eating anyway, after the initial novelty wears off. 

The thread of "losing customers" if they don't continue to incur more debt to keep them pretending everything is the way that it was pre March 2020, is compared to losing customers entirely had they not incurred  the debt to simply tread water and sail another day.

 

We have to cut this industry some slack, is what I think. 

We  all are cutting the cruise industry slack by spending our discretionary money on cruises .  I am not ready to throw in the rowel on cruises & I do agree with what you  posted  , We  just hope  that the lines can make it with a decent consumer product . Lines like MSC have very deep pockets   because of their main line maritime giant  .Then we understand that the Saudis are entering the cruise industry with their wealth  .Seems to us that things are going to get more & more interesting in the near future 

[Stateroom_Sailor]

I slightly disagree that the debt is not their fault.  The cruise industry was shaken by the 2008 recession, and even by the 2013 Carnival Triumph "poop cruise".  The mass market continued over-building, as if hiccups were all in the past.  I would argue that the mass market was over-leveraged even before the pandemic, which was why there was a fight for cheaper cabins, paired with downgrades to offset fares. Moving forward past 2023, new competition can enter the water without the same debt burden, or need for continious cuts.

 

I saw worse cuts on CCL from 2011 - 2017, HAL seems to be at least strategic in masking it.  Still, we're talking about Carnival stock, and reviews across the company are not improving.  Interest on debt will likely renew higher.  Can they raise enough cash to pay it down beforehand?  Will 2023 or 2024 plunge into recession?

 

[mcrcruiser]

6 minutes ago, Stateroom_Sailor said:

I slightly disagree that the debt is not their fault.  The cruise industry was shaken by the 2008 recession, and even by the 2013 Carnival Triumph "poop cruise".  The mass market continued over-building, as if hiccups were all in the past.  I would argue that the mass market was over-leveraged even before the pandemic, which was why there was a fight for cheaper cabins, paired with downgrades to offset fares. Moving forward past 2023, new competition can enter the water without the same debt burden, or need for continious cuts.

 

I saw worse cuts on CCL from 2011 - 2017, HAL seems to be at least strategic in masking it.  Still, we're talking about Carnival stock, and reviews across the company are not improving.  Interest on debt will likely renew higher.  Can they raise enough cash to pay it down beforehand?  Will 2023 or 2024 plunge into recession?

 

Yes what they will payin interest charges will be higher in this battle to tame inflation bt  the  FED . About a possible recession ,school seems to be out on that one doe now . The real problem is cash flow  .We had 1000 shares of CCL stock bought in the $7  range  .Just sold 900 shares Friday .with the dree 100 share we keep for the OBC benefit   going forward another $500  in OBC

[LouChamp]

Aloha. Have been a shareholder for decades.  I do not believe anything Carnival Corporate says. They need to be careful wording everything because of SEC rules, etc. Additionally they need to be positive with their press releases.  Their debt load is enormous and I am certain behind the scenes they are looking to shed more ships as they need to build new ones to keep the public interested. The banks, shipyards are also involved as their investments make the company almost to big to fail. Their income stream and potential earnings are not limitless so they have to keep kicking the can down the road. I would not be surprised if they sell brands although doing so would have that brand become a competitor.  It is a mess essentially and or course passengers suffer because of the onboard cutbacks.  

 

[rodndonna]

30 minutes ago, LouChamp said:

 It is a mess essentially and or course passengers suffer because of the onboard cutbacks.  

 

 

"Suffer" ..is perhaps a bit overstated. Maybe we could ask HAL to redirect their charitable donations from the  "on deck for a cause" to go towards the plight of the  "suffering cruise ship passengers" - 😄

 

[CruiserBruce]

42 minutes ago, rodndonna said:

 

"Suffer" ..is perhaps a bit overstated. Maybe we could ask HAL to redirect their charitable donations from the  "on deck for a cause" to go towards the plight of the  "suffering cruise ship passengers" - 😄

 

Oh yes...the drama  of all the suffering...

[Mary229]

I don’t think cruise lines are alone in raising prices.  It seems to be a worldwide phenomenon.

 

 I think they have a bifurcated plan.  The fares are increasing by inflation and the debt is serviced by the extra spending such as shore excursions, HIA, casino and so on.

 

They are also offering more baby grand voyages, like the eclipse cruise and the ultimates, where prices higher per day.  Grands have always been higher per day.

Honestly until the cruise drops this spring I did not see fare increases.  

[mcrcruiser]

Mary  yes other vacation types  ,airlines ,hotels ,airbnbs vacation rentals by owners  ,all inclusive resorts , even time shares  all have raised prices  because of inflation  .Every restaurant that is individually owned raised prices .The i chain restaurants like Mc Donals have noy as obvious  price increases  ;but ,they are there . Both ingredients & labor costs have increased 

 

What could drop costs in the future & it is not that far in the future is AI  .I see the day when many jobs by people are replaced by robots ;which woud be a  boon for all service type business .In fact it has already started

[mcrcruiser]

Ai will be a life preserver to the cruise industry 

[OlsSalt]

The instant "covid" shutdown of the entire industry over-night in March 2020, accompanied by the most lurid dose of negative publicity dragging out for weeks is one CLL challenge to overcome.

 

The other more fundamental challenge is what was the overall state of the industry itself, what trajectory was it on, prior to the external and arbitrary shutdown March 2020.

 

What changes were happening just to HAL in those prior several years when new management was brought in - for what end goals? How successful were those changes to its ultimate future? Was HAL heading down hill, treading water, or increasing its share of the bottom line. Consolidated CCL financial statements offer few answers.

 

Should  the pre-"covid" CCL course be re-engaged, now that it is past the "covid" crisis? 

 

Or is this a unique time for a great re-set of the entire CCL market share agenda?

Does CCL only tweak, or does it fundamentally transform itself  post-"covid"? 

[JeffElizabeth]

16 hours ago, OlsSalt said:

I'll take more pasta and less lamb if it keep prices down. We don't cruise to eat - just get reasonably fed. One can dine well, and still dine economically.  

 

Long cruise often devolve into simple eating anyway, after the initial novelty wears off. 

The thread of "losing customers" if they don't continue to incur more debt to keep them pretending everything is the way that it was pre March 2020, is compared to losing customers entirely had they not incurred  the debt to simply tread water and sail another day.

 

We have to cut this industry some slack, is what I think. 

I agree. The three cruises we took last year all were disappointing in their own way, but new customers who haven't been cruising since 1997 might think differently.  I am hoping that interest rates will start to decline and some of their debt can get refinanced for less.

 

A mild recession currently going on in Germany might help. 

[cruisemom42]

4 hours ago, Mary229 said:

I don’t think cruise lines are alone in raising prices.  It seems to be a worldwide phenomenon.

 

It may be a worldwide phenomenon, but it is not impacting all sectors and geographies equally. One nice thing about being (newly) retired is that I can monitor the upside and downside of various travel modes and destinations to travel to my advantage, as opposed to having to plan far in advance in order to be able to get time off work.

 

For example, I was pleasantly surprised this week to find that my favorite hotel in Rome has prices that have not changed since my previous stay there in November 2019 (same week in 2023). 

 

Also, a happy bonus for recent Japan travelers has been the weak yen, leading to prices for hotels, food and other items being cheaper, effectively, for a US traveler than they were 10 years ago.

 

If you look diligently and are flexible, there are still good values to be had -- in cruising too. The Azamara cruise I originally booked almost two years ago dropped so much (prior to final payment) that I was able to book the following cruise with the savings....  

 

 

 

[ontheweb]

1 hour ago, mcrcruiser said:

Ai will be a life preserver to the cruise industry 

When AI takes over everyone's jobs who is going to be left to afford going on a cruise?

[cruisemom42]

11 minutes ago, ontheweb said:

When AI takes over everyone's jobs who is going to be left to afford going on a cruise?

 

Figure out now which AI company to invest in. 🤣🤣

[Mary229]

10 minutes ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

Figure out now which AI company to invest in. 🤣🤣

Ask AI😉

[Haljo1935]

3 hours ago, mcrcruiser said:

Ai will be a life preserver to the cruise industry 

The passenger-facing portion of the cruise industry, which is the part of the industry we're ultimately most concerned about, is the exact opposite of AI. It is ALL humans interacting with humans; very far from being saved by AI.

Or did I misread OPs post?

[ontheweb]

1 hour ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

Figure out now which AI company to invest in. 🤣🤣

I just don't know. My best investment used to be Carnival Corporation. The stock went up, the dividend doubled, and we got OBC whenever we sailed on Carnival, Princess, or Holland America. And then came Covid, and the stock is a real loser now from when I bought it for $30 something dollars a share.

[Mary229]

18 minutes ago, Haljo1935 said:

The passenger-facing portion of the cruise industry, which is the part of the industry we're ultimately most concerned about, is the exact opposite of AI. It is ALL humans interacting with humans; very far from being saved by AI.

Or did I misread OPs post?

I could see some functions by AI.  We already do so rudimentary AI interactions by ordering from the TV or the app.  A kiosk at the dive in would be AI.  Sometimes we only consider the new high level as AI but even rudimentary operations are in fact AI.  I agree though that there are currently limited applications at the customer level but in engineering and navigation it might be much higher. 

[albingirl]

15 minutes ago, ontheweb said:

I just don't know. My best investment used to be Carnival Corporation. The stock went up, the dividend doubled, and we got OBC whenever we sailed on Carnival, Princess, or Holland America. And then came Covid, and the stock is a real loser now from when I bought it for $30 something dollars a share.

Yeah, we all lost money but this thread is pure speculation and nothing else.

[Haljo1935]

32 minutes ago, Mary229 said:

I could see some functions by AI.  We already do so rudimentary AI interactions by ordering from the TV or the app.  A kiosk at the dive in would be AI.  Sometimes we only consider the new high level as AI but even rudimentary operations are in fact AI.  I agree though that there are currently limited applications at the customer level but in engineering and navigation it might be much higher. 

Yes, aligned that AI absolutely has a role in engineering, navigation, and certain passenger encounters (like the Dive In app you mentioned).  But I don't believe it will be the life preserver @mcrcruiser is predicting; there are far too many "human" encounters (cabin stewards and chefs, for ex) that the industry depends on.

Interesting conversation, for sure!

 

4 hours ago, mcrcruiser said:

Ai will be a life preserver to the cruise industry 

 

[seekatz]

Many comments on this thread are spot on regarding CCL stock. The debt went from 22 to 33 Billion from 2020 to this year, even more concerning is shareholder equity. A factor in this is also the over doubling of shares outstanding causing a massive dilution for existing shareholders.

• Carnival share holder equity for the quarter ending February 28, 2023 was $6.170B, a 40.16% decline year-over-year.
• Carnival share holder equity for 2022 was $7.065B, a 41.82% decline from 2021.
• Carnival share holder equity for 2021 was $12.144B, a 40.92% decline from 2020.
• Carnival share holder equity for 2020 was $20.555B, a 18.96% decline from 2019.

[Mary229]

5 minutes ago, seekatz said:

Many comments on this thread are spot on regarding CCL stock. The debt went from 22 to 33 Billion from 2020 to this year, even more concerning is shareholder equity. A factor in this is also the over doubling of shares outstanding causing a massive dilution for existing shareholders.

• Carnival share holder equity for the quarter ending February 28, 2023 was $6.170B, a 40.16% decline year-over-year.
• Carnival share holder equity for 2022 was $7.065B, a 41.82% decline from 2021.
• Carnival share holder equity for 2021 was $12.144B, a 40.92% decline from 2020.
• Carnival share holder equity for 2020 was $20.555B, a 18.96% decline from 2019.

Those are investment issues.  Most people in this forum own a single 100 share lot for receiving OBC.  The only real issue for most of us is risk of losing travel expenses.  There are ways to limit those risks. Our other risk is will the cruise experience be up to expectations.

Edited June 11, 2023 by Mary229