CCL High Debt /what is Your Opinion

[Guest ldtr]

51 minutes ago, richwmn said:

Sometimes, effectively, you have little choice. If you want to sail or fly out of a certain city you have to use the resources that are available.

 

For instance, if you happen to live in the Greater Atlanta area you use Atlanta Airport and most likely will fly Delta. From a website Airport-atl dot com there are 1061 flights out of Atlanta today (5 July) of which 794 are Delta or a code share partner. There are 20 flights out of Atlanta to Fort Lauderdale of which 11 are Delta. In the other direction there are 1054 incoming flights today of which 787 are Delta.

 

 

Yep sometimes with cruiselines there is only one company doing a particular itinerary. For example next March I am on a Oceania cruise because they are the only one doing a one way from Papeete to San Pedro that is small.enough to visit Bora Bora.  With travel ports visited, itineraries and home port selection can be competitive advantages. Same as airline hubs, routes and nonstop destinations can be for them.

[mcrcruiser]

42 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

So? You can not use after hours trading as any sort of reliable predictor. As a day trader you should know this. 

 

As evidenced today. CCL ran up at the bell. That means very little also. 

 

Have you thought about sitting this game out? I say that with kindness and concern.

Still doing very well with CCL shares . Ultimately will get down to the 100 just for OBCs. Have other stock going to be a 10 bagger easy . 

[Guest ldtr]

40 minutes ago, Mary229 said:

How about the two P&Os, Aida, Cunard and Seabourn?  Note that some Costa ships are now reassigned to North America.   There was a recent disclosure to one of our forum members by a HAL rep that there was to soon be an acquisition announcement.  It was not divulged it it is a new ship, a refurbished ship or a reassigned ship.

That's interesting. About the only place where you could find a ship of the right size and build date would be Aida. They have ships in the 2100 to 2500 size that could fit. Do not know about the layout and decor.

 

It would makes sense since they have added some capacity in the form of 2 5000+ passenger ships in the past few years.

[HappyInVan]

3 hours ago, ldtr said:

As far as expansion during the period pre covid. That was the same game for all of  mass market cruise lines. Limited pricing power due to competition in the rest of the travel industry, but a growing overall industry. All.played the same game. A bit different in the premium and luxury market.

 

False! CCL has 9 brands. RCL has only 4, with two up-market brands. NCL chose to have only 3; up-market, mid-market and family. MSC had only one brand with two different classes.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cruise_lines

 

You have no idea what competitive advantage is!!! 🙄

 

Thanks for your opinion.

Edited July 5, 2023 by HappyInVan

[BermudaBound2014]

@HappyInVan

 

Just for the record: MSC is launching the new "Explora" line, which will be very upscale. 

 

And technically Royal Caribbean has 5 under the RCL Group

Royal, Celebrity, Silverseas, Tui, Hapog-loyd.

 

 

Edited July 5, 2023 by BermudaBound2014

[mcrcruiser]

27 minutes ago, ldtr said:

That's interesting. About the only place where you could find a ship of the right size and build date would be Aida. They have ships in the 2100 to 2500 size that could fit. Do not know about the layout and decor.

 

It would makes sense since they have added some capacity in the form of 2 5000+ passenger ships in the past few years.

yes could be that HAL gets one of the Aida ships

[Guest ldtr]

22 minutes ago, HappyInVan said:

 

False! CCL has 9 brands. RCL has only 4, with two up-market brands. NCL chose to have only 3; up-market, mid-market and family. MSC had only one brand with two different classes.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cruise_lines

 

You have no idea what competitive advantage is!!! 🙄

 

Thanks for your opinion.

Hate to tell you but all of the mass market cruise companies followed the same path in building more and larger ships RCL did, NCL did, MSC did. All of them greatly expanded capacity while keeping prices low during that same period. Nothing to do with the number of brands.

 

As far as number of brands as I pointed out in this discussion RCL and NCLH are mostly North America family focused companies, compared to CCL which has far more capacity focused on other regions. Thus the other brands headquartered in other countries. To many that diversity is a competitive advantage.

 

 

 

 

[HappyInVan]

26 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

@HappyInVan

 

Just for the record: MSC is launching the new "Explora" line, which will be very upscale. 

 

And technically Royal Caribbean has 5 under the RCL Group

Royal, Celebrity, Silverseas, Tui, Hapog-loyd.

 

 

Correct. Explora is set to sail later this month. I had an option on a 2024 cruise. I declined, because I could simply wait for the pax reviews for Explora 1. There's going to be an Explora 6 in 2028. MSC and Explora are finally moving out to the West Coast.

 

Correction. RCL only owns 50% of TUI (HQ Hanover) which is the owner of Hapag-Lloyd cruises (HQ Hamburg).

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TUI_Group

 

Update: RCL now has only 3 brands under its management after selling Azamara; just like NCL. Upmarket, mid-market and family.

 

[Guest ldtr]

it actually make a great deal of sense to shift a couple of ships from Aida. If the new large ships have done well there, they could continue to add capacity with large ships once they start building again. In the meantime they could move a couple of 10 to 14 year old ships in the lower 2000 range. For only the outside cost of a redecorating dry dock. Maybe HAL passengers would like an Alpine Hut restaurant. 

[BermudaBound2014]

2 minutes ago, HappyInVan said:

Correct. Explora is set to sail later this month. I had an option on a 2024 cruise. I declined, because I could simply wait for the pax reviews for Explora 1. There's going to be an Explora 6 in 2028. MSC and Explora are finally moving out to the West Coast.

 

Correction. RCL only owns 50% of TUI (HQ Hanover) which is the owner of Hapag-Lloyd cruises (HQ Hamburg).

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TUI_Group

 

Update: RCL now has only 3 brands under its management after selling Azamara; just like NCL. Upmarket, mid-market and family.

 

 

On the RCL investors page, these are the cruise lines listed under the RCL Umbrella:

https://www.royalcaribbeangroup.com/

 

 

[BermudaBound2014]

3 minutes ago, ldtr said:

it actually make a great deal of sense to shift a couple of ships from Aida. If the new large ships have done well there, they could continue to add capacity with large ships once they start building again. In the meantime they could move a couple of 10 to 14 year old ships in the lower 2000 range. For only the outside cost of a redecorating dry dock. Maybe HAL passengers would like an Alpine Hut restaurant. 

 

I think we can all agree that if HAL's niche is going to be exotic longer cruises, smaller ships make sense.  

[Guest ldtr]

34 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

@HappyInVan

 

Just for the record: MSC is launching the new "Explora" line, which will be very upscale. 

 

And technically Royal Caribbean has 5 under the RCL Group

Royal, Celebrity, Silverseas, Tui, Hapog-loyd.

 

 

Yep RCL started to expand to other markets following CCL. Mostly in the form of joint ventures and shared ownership. There was also a French based one that they shut down during Covid.

[mcrcruiser]

14 minutes ago, HappyInVan said:

Correct. Explora is set to sail later this month. I had an option on a 2024 cruise. I declined, because I could simply wait for the pax reviews for Explora 1. There's going to be an Explora 6 in 2028. MSC and Explora are finally moving out to the West Coast.

 

Correction. RCL only owns 50% of TUI (HQ Hanover) which is the owner of Hapag-Lloyd cruises (HQ Hamburg).

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TUI_Group

 

Update: RCL now has only 3 brands under its management after selling Azamara; just like NCL. Upmarket, mid-market and family.

 

We can only hope that MSC & Explora decide to birth ships here in San Diego .We have a beautiful New cruise pier that none of the lines are using  ,Perhaps the new pier charged too much but ,it is being used presently for other functions.SD is ehat we personally want not San Pedr. LA which is a zoo

[mcrcruiser]

San Pedro ,LA needs indoor type parking really bad . MSC has the capital to biuild a parking structure . Still we personally prefer SD which is 28 miles door to door

 

 MSC would r give  CCL. NCL & Norwegian a run for the money 

Edited July 5, 2023 by mcrcruiser

[mcrcruiser]

Just now, mcrcruiser said:

San Pedro ,LA needs indoor type parking really bad . MSC has the capital to biuild a parking structure . Still we personally prefer SD which is 28 miles door to door

 

[Haljo1935]

1 hour ago, mcrcruiser said:

We can only hope that MSC & Explora decide to birth ships here in San Diego .We have a beautiful New cruise pier that none of the lines are using  ,Perhaps the new pier charged too much but ,it is being used presently for other functions.SD is ehat we personally want not San Pedr. LA which is a zoo

We had no issues embarking or disembarking in SD, but man are the flights high. Like cost prohibitive high. It's crazy... that will ultimately impact long term success of the terminal if people can't/won't pay to get there.

Edited July 5, 2023 by Haljo1935
Typo

[jthek]

CCL up again today

[Mary229]

2 hours ago, Haljo1935 said:

We had no issues embarking or disembarking in SD, but man are the flights high. Like cost prohibitive high. It's crazy... that will ultimately impact long term success of the terminal if people can't/won't pay to get there.

Have you tried SWA?  I am flying home in October one way for about $160 (points). Yes, it used to be $120 but that was a long time ago 

[mcrcruiser]

2 hours ago, jthek said:

CCL up again today

Yes & it keeps making us enough for new cruises . But ,one thing people must understand is the higher the stock goes ultimately the earnings & the free cash flow will need to come . A lot of debt service right now with interest rates most likely to go up per the FED  ,so the stock price is  so so .Still a lot of money was & still can be made but ,be very careful

[mcrcruiser]

2 hours ago, Haljo1935 said:

We had no issues embarking or disembarking in SD, but man are the flights high. Like cost prohibitive high. It's crazy... that will ultimately impact long term success of the terminal if people can't/won't pay to get there.

what is really nice about SD port is it is only 10 minutes from the SD airport .  More & more things   interesting to see & so in SD with great weather year around .so just may be ,we will see what lines it may attract to sail from SD as a home port

[CruiserBruce]

4 hours ago, jthek said:

CCL up again today

Yep...even tho some was screaming the sky is falling. 

[albingirl]

32 minutes ago, CruiserBruce said:

Yep...even tho some was screaming the sky is falling. 

Pretty standard for this thread. 

[Haljo1935]

6 hours ago, Mary229 said:

Have you tried SWA?  I am flying home in October one way for about $160 (points). Yes, it used to be $120 but that was a long time ago 

I haven't checked SWA because of its location, but will do that. DFW is so much more convenient than Love Field.

[mcrcruiser]

5 hours ago, CruiserBruce said:

Yep...even tho some was screaming the sky is falling. 

Not just yet . LOL

[HappyInVan]

There's been comments about diversification and competitiveness. Here's my contribution.

 

Conglomerates diversify to reduce risk. For example, they might own a staple biz as well as companies highly prone to cyclical influences. The staple biz provides stability while the cyclical biz provide the highlights during the good times.

 

Aerospace companies diversify by adding defense contracts to commercial projects. The different client bases have different economic cycles. Is CCL diversified?

 

Brands must have competitive advantages (CA) in order to survive and thrive. Walmart competes on price with mega-stores (limited locations) because they have huge purchasing power. Suppliers kowtow to them. They have a low price advantage because of their low cost model.

 

On the other hand, chains like K-Mart etc with me-too biz models are no more.

 

Its a truism that luxury brands have high markups. On the other hand, brands with weak CA end up competing on price which they can't afford to. That helps explain why Princess is now the engine of growth for CCL; not Carnival.

 

The Carnival model is inferior (lowest revenue per pax) to the character model of Disney, the quality model of Virgin, and the two-class model of NCL and MSC.

 

Currently, the RCL and NCL groups are focused on three segments (upmarket, mid-market and family) with just one brand for each segment. Instead of diversifying, they are sharpening their focus.

 

RCI will sail a 250k GT mega-ship in 2024. NCL's newest ship (the Prima) is just 140k GT. It will boast of its quality design. In line with NCL's ability to gain twice the pax revenue of Carnival.

 

Meanwhile, MSC continues with their 2-class system and expanding geographically to North America. Their parent company has very deep pockets and MSC could withstand a long price war.

 

Interestingly, MSC's new venture (Explora) will sail Prinsendam-size ships. Perhaps, its a recognition that there are limits to the expansion of mega-ships. Rising local resistance combined with the scarcity of suitable berths will be a future concern.

 

Meanwhile, CCL is severely constricted by their debt load and cash flow requirements. No signs of mental agility in the CCL executive suites. Perhaps, this is of concern to the professional investors (post 322).

 

Hope this helps.