Why Isn't HAL Adding New Ships to Their Fleet

[TRLD]

26 minutes ago, C 2 C said:

Carnival is absorbing all the P&O ships into the Carnival fold... (I think according to the news I received which may differ depending on your sources.)

Only P&O Australia. 1 is being retired since it is 27 years old. The other 2 old Princess ships will be transferred. P&O Australia fleet is pretty old (no ship newer than 20) and has depended upon Princess cast offs. Unlikely Princess will have any to transfer for a few years so it makes sense to shutdown P&O Australia.

 

P&O UK was protected under the terms that was agreed to when CCL purchased P&O. Not sure if Cunard also had some protections written it. The protections for P&O UK were required by the UK government in order to allow the purchase.

 

 

Edited June 6 by TRLD

[C 2 C]

Does anyone know the actual profitability of any of the different divisions or any ship class?

[TRLD]

17 minutes ago, C 2 C said:

Does anyone know the actual profitability of any of the different divisions or any ship class?

Revenue per passenger by line yes. No published source for profit by ship class or line, only by the holding companies.

 

Here is an article that discusses ship size costs to some degree

 

https://porteconomicsmanagement.org/pemp/contents/part9/optimal-ship-size-container-ships-cruise/

Edited June 6 by TRLD

[*Miss G*]

10 hours ago, TRLD said:

One can expect HAL ships to have a service life of atleast 20 and as long as 24.

The last “Ask the Captain” talk I went to was Captain Kevin Beirnart on the Oosterdam. He stated that a ship’s lifespan is 25 years, after which they are sold or a decision is made to keep them in service. 

[C 2 C]

We just left Volendam and loved the ship.  We had several very cold days and even missed a port.  There are so many great lounges and sitting area on Volendam.  I can't imagine where everyone would settle down for a sea day on newer ships with less public space per pax.  Volendam is just months short of her 25th birthday and I hope she last a few years longer.

 

[Avid Travel Geek]

27 minutes ago, C 2 C said:

We just left Volendam and loved the ship.  We had several very cold days and even missed a port.  There are so many great lounges and sitting area on Volendam.  I can't imagine where everyone would settle down for a sea day on newer ships with less public space per pax.  Volendam is just months short of her 25th birthday and I hope she last a few years longer.

 

 

I was on her a couple weeks ago, my first time on a HAL ship this small. Every time we got on the elevator it was empty, even on disembarkation day. My new favorite ship. I have her booked next year on a different and longer Canadian itinerary and have the Zaandam booked for Mexico. 

[Heidi13]

19 hours ago, ronrythm said:

After 15 years of age the cost of maintenance go up dramatically, with all of the twice every 5 years technical surveys requiring a dry dock instead of alternating underwater and dry dock. Looking at that, most of the ships listed are in that range. Don’t be surprised if Carnival Corporation decides to cut them from the fleet.

 

While the maintenance costs normally increase with the age of the ships, I wouldn't agree that they increase dramatically due to 2 in 5 drydockings, from 15 yrs old. Yes, drydocking a ship is expensive, as is the loss of revenue during the drydocking, but the additional drydocking costs are reduced by the in-water survey costs, as professional divers also aren't cheap. They will further offset the additional drydocking costs with having a cleaner hull from new anti-fouling, which will realise additional fuel savings. Having the hull pressure washed and re-coated in drydock also saves the cost of hiring a hull cleaning service, which are also not cheap.

 

Based on managing the project managers and estimators in a shipyard, the maintenance costs increase significantly once you start replacing steel, piping and major machinery, etc. With reasonable onboard maintenance, you shouldn't need steel replacement until at least 20 yrs, with most ships I experienced starting around 25 yrs.

 

In my experience, drydock/refit costs started increasing slowly at 15 - 20 years and started increasing faster after 25 yrs.

 

[chengkp75]

12 minutes ago, Heidi13 said:

Based on managing the project managers and estimators in a shipyard, the maintenance costs increase significantly once you start replacing steel, piping and major machinery, etc. With reasonable onboard maintenance, you shouldn't need steel replacement until at least 20 yrs, with most ships I experienced starting around 25 yrs.

 

In my experience, drydock/refit costs started increasing slowly at 15 - 20 years and started increasing faster after 25 yrs.

My experience, though more limited in shipyard time than yours, is different.  One thing that I find makes a huge difference in cost at the 3rd special survey (15 year mark), is the huge increase in thickness testing of hull plating and framing, and x-ray inspections of hull welds, which now must be done twice in 5 years, as opposed to every 5 years.  After the costs of these inspections, you start to see more steel replacement requirements, and in many cases this comes in places you really don't want to do steel replacement, like sea ducts and void tanks.  I've seen charts that show a parabolic curve of maintenance cost vs. age, where the shoulder is the 15 year mark, and it was explained to me that this is why the underwater survey is no longer allowed after the 15 year mark.

[Heidi13]

21 hours ago, TRLD said:

In your dreams. P&O Australia has been living on cast off Princess ships for years. Princess not going to have any to send them.  

 

So shutting them down makes sense. 

 

Costa has been down since the accident so those transfer make sense.

 

With the massive increase in Capacity for Aida just before Covid a transfer of a couple of their smaller ships would also make sense if it were to occur.

 

Not assuming a Neptune class, only going by fleet age, and what makes sense for the brand and the niche they are in.

 

 

While P&O has operated in the Australian market for many years, the company P&O Australia was only created about the year 2000, when the P&O Group created a wholly owned subsidiary P&O Princess Cruises, to manage the then increasing pax business.

 

Even prior to 2000, many of the P&O ships were sent to Australia for the last few years and in addition, SS Oriana headed to Sydney every December for 4 months.

 

From memory, the original P&O Australia vessels came from P&O Princess, but then they received the Ocean Village ships, when they ceased operations. They also received a couple of smaller ships from HAL, about 10 years ago.

 

They have never received a newbuild, although Carnival did have a mega ship on order for  P&O Australia, but prior to build it was changed to Carnival. They were then promised an older Carnival ship, but that was also changed to a Grand Class from Princess. I believe all future ships were then from Princess - a couple of Dawn Class and a couple of Grands.

 

With Carnival shutting down P&O Australia, they are reverting to the pre-2000 P&O model, as in those days the ships still carried P&O livery when operating in Australia.

[Heidi13]

8 minutes ago, chengkp75 said:

My experience, though more limited in shipyard time than yours, is different.  One thing that I find makes a huge difference in cost at the 3rd special survey (15 year mark), is the huge increase in thickness testing of hull plating and framing, and x-ray inspections of hull welds, which now must be done twice in 5 years, as opposed to every 5 years.  After the costs of these inspections, you start to see more steel replacement requirements, and in many cases this comes in places you really don't want to do steel replacement, like sea ducts and void tanks.  I've seen charts that show a parabolic curve of maintenance cost vs. age, where the shoulder is the 15 year mark, and it was explained to me that this is why the underwater survey is no longer allowed after the 15 year mark.

 

Chief - could be build quality, in addition to OBM. I don't recall replacing steel on anything < 20 yrs and even my last command, which I also managed a number of the dockings hadn't had steel renewal when I retired, and she was already 23 yrs.

 

Lots of steel replaced on those > 30 yrs.

[terrydtx]

6 hours ago, C 2 C said:

We just left Volendam and loved the ship.  We had several very cold days and even missed a port.  There are so many great lounges and sitting area on Volendam.  I can't imagine where everyone would settle down for a sea day on newer ships with less public space per pax.  Volendam is just months short of her 25th birthday and I hope she last a few years longer.

 

Good to know, we will be on her in August for 11 days, can't wait.

[ChinaShrek]

On 6/3/2024 at 7:29 PM, Wayward Son said:

 

 

Regardless, any speculation on the issue will resolve itself. Sooner rather than later, I expect. As new cruisers become seasoned cruisers, ports start rejecting the monstrosity ships, and the price for a family gets too high (so they choose land over sea), the smaller ships will win in the end.

 

I actually think the bigger, mega ships are here to stay. I know many people who are bringing their entire families to sail on them instead of going to Disney or Vegas. They are floating cities where the ship is the destination. These ships could sail in circles and most passengers won't care. 

[ontheweb]

11 hours ago, ChinaShrek said:

I actually think the bigger, mega ships are here to stay. I know many people who are bringing their entire families to sail on them instead of going to Disney or Vegas. They are floating cities where the ship is the destination. These ships could sail in circles and most passengers won't care. 

Unfortunately, I agree with you.

[Host Jazzbeau]

Sorry @chengkp75 and @Heidi13 that you had to waste so much time debating with a non-engineer 'expert.'  Major clean-up complete.  Thread closed.