Could Cruise Prices Come Down ?

[mcrcruiser]

 Seems to us that high government spending is keeping the economy afloat but , that too must slow down or stop i. Credit card debt has reached a all tome high of a Trillion dollars . Will consumers pull back on spending ? . Then what will happen to the stock market ;as consumer spending represents 2/3 of the National economy ?  Since cruises still are considered a luxury  can  consumer demand still  keep  cruise bookings moving higher  while  consumers face harder times ?  Thus could we see  cruise prices actually drop from these lofty high levels ?

 

 It will be interesting what other people think 

[kazu]

I do the future cruise listings and Bon Voyage threads.

For most of the Bon Voyage itineraries, I have to go to the sold out section of HAL. Cruises have been selling very well.  Maybe the Caribbean cruises will come down but I doubt HAL’s longer, nicer itineraries will.  If anything, I have seen those prices rise since I booked, not decrease.

 

I think people sailing on those are not suffering from high credit card debt, etc.  Remember, more than Americans sail and they did not get the covid influx of funds that some in the United States did.  They seem to be managing 😉 

[CNSJ]

I agree with Kazu that demand seems strong, and that even with higher prices cruises are a relative bargain.  Hotel prices are up, food and drink prices have skyrocketed.  A cruise presents some good value plus a journey.  I think the rate of price increase may slow, but doubt you s=will see large decreases.

 

Much of HAL's demographic I would think are reasonably well to do retirees - mostly baby boomers that didn't suck up a great deal of COVID funds.  

[foodsvcmgr]

Don’t be trapped in Depression era thinking.

For the employed or retired middle class and above, cruising and vacations in general are now an important part of their lifestyle and not necessarily the first thing to be deferred as in the past.

Of course fares will drop in response to reduced demand if that occurs.

I also don’t think those who are really struggling to make ends meet, pay bills, etc. are representative of typical cruisers.

[ontheweb]

It's called the law of supply and demand. As long as cruise ships are sailing full like they seem to be now, the fares will not go down.

 

If you are predicting a recession, that would probably lower fares as there would be less demand. But there have been predictions of a recession for quite a while now, but instead the economy keeps growing. 

[mcrcruiser]

Yes we would agree that the longer itineraries are people with deep pockets  thaqt taqke those cruises . Perhaps like you indicate ,the shorter ,Caribbean  cruises  or Mexico  could drop in price . Thanks for your input 

[SJSULIBRARIAN]

I don't think cruise prices are coming down. If ships are sailing full or close to full, why would they.

[bajae]

My December cruise is currently showing a price that is a couple hundred less than I paid. However, the math shows I’m still ahead with the earlier booking bonus so I’m not going to refare 

[mcrcruiser]

3 minutes ago, ontheweb said:

It's called the law of supply and demand. As long as cruise ships are sailing full like they seem to be now, the fares will not go down.

 

If you are predicting a recession, that would probably lower fares as there would be less demand. But there have been predictions of a recession for quite a while now, but instead the economy keeps growing. 

We can agree that while ships are sailing full pricing will remain high  . About a potential recession that card is still in the deck imo . Federal government spending is at a all time high but ,it can't keep growing with out very severe consequences ;which most people will agree . Then the other side of the coin is  consumer spending . Can consumer spending be as  robust as it has been  or will it  slow down ?  Is a recession possible , imo yes it is possible this year .We see crypto & gold prices reaching all time highs  ,so we got to ask ourselves ,why ? .Thus ,should a recession happen ,by all means cruise prices will go down as the cruise line costs  will also go down ,imo

[foodsvcmgr]

IF there would be any drop in fares, I would agree as mentioned here that it would be short 3-5 day itineraries, likely those on old Carnival “Fantasy” class ships.

These cruises are drawing a more price sensitive clientele, say a young family looking to take their first cruise who might have a lot of debt, etc. 

[mcrcruiser]

Thanks for all your replies . Planing future travels   takes a llot of planing   & your replies  shed light  on  booking future cruises 

[POA1]

Demand is back up to pre-shutdown levels, but there is far less inventory. That's going to create an imbalance on the demand side

[ontheweb]

3 hours ago, mcrcruiser said:

We can agree that while ships are sailing full pricing will remain high  . About a potential recession that card is still in the deck imo . Federal government spending is at a all time high but ,it can't keep growing with out very severe consequences ;which most people will agree . Then the other side of the coin is  consumer spending . Can consumer spending be as  robust as it has been  or will it  slow down ?  Is a recession possible , imo yes it is possible this year .We see crypto & gold prices reaching all time highs  ,so we got to ask ourselves ,why ? .Thus ,should a recession happen ,by all means cruise prices will go down as the cruise line costs  will also go down ,imo

Economists have been predicting a recession on the horizon for quite a bit of time now, and yet the economy instead just seems to keep growing.

 

Actually, I do not hear those predictions as much now, so maybe we better look out for a recession. 😒  Economists have been less accurate than the people who predict the weather.

[ontheweb]

2 hours ago, POA1 said:

Demand is back up to pre-shutdown levels, but there is far less inventory. That's going to create an imbalance on the demand side

Exactly, the good old law of supply and demand is still in effect.

[CNSJ]

4 hours ago, bajae said:

My December cruise is currently showing a price that is a couple hundred less than I paid. However, the math shows I’m still ahead with the earlier booking bonus so I’m not going to refare 

So basically, the price really is about the same.  You just had a better selection of cabins.  

[cruisemom42]

4 hours ago, POA1 said:

Demand is back up to pre-shutdown levels, but there is far less inventory. That's going to create an imbalance on the demand side

 

Is there really far less inventory? I don't mean that to sound like I'm doubting, just genuinely surprised/curious. It got me thinking. I know that a certain amount of inventory was offloaded during Covid but there have been a good number of launches since 2021, including some pretty big ships recently. Plus the fact that not all offloaded inventory left the market (e.g., the 2 HAL ships picked up by Fred Olsen).

 

Mass Market -- New ships post-Covid (2021 and later)

HAL Rotterdam VII (2021): 2650 pax

RCCL Odyssey of the Seas (2021): 4200 pax

RCCL Wonder of the Seas (2022): 5750 pax

NCL Prima (2022): 3100 pax

NCL Viva (2023): 3200 pax

Celebrity Beyond (2022): 3300 pax

Celebrity Ascent (2023): 3300 pax

Princess Discovery Princess (2022): 3700 pax

Princess Sun Princess (2023): 4300 pax 

Carnival Mardi Gras (2021): 5300 pax

Carnival Celebration (2022): 5300 pax

Carnival Jubilee (2023): 5300 pax

MSC Virtuosa (2021): 4900 pax

MSC Seashore (2021): 4600 pax

MSC Seascape (2022): 4600 pax

MSC Euribia (2023): 6300 pax

 

Premium and Luxury Lines also gained some ships:

Viking Venus (2021): 930 pax

Viking Mars (2022): 930 pax

Viking Neptune (2022): 930 pax

Viking Saturn (2022): 930 pax

Oceania Vista (2023): 1200 pax

(MSC) Explora I (2023): 922 pax

 

Plus: 3 ships for new Virgin Voyages (not quite sure where to put them); each @ 2700 for another 8100 berths...

 

(I didn't count any transfers, e.g. two ships transferred from Costa to Carnival...Also did not count expedition ships, of which there are several.)

 

I'm sure I have forgotten something, but the above figures (not even the maximum numbers given in most cases) rounds up to room for 83,800 additional pax since 2021. If you include the maximum number of berths, the number must creep close to 100,000...

 

Edited March 10 by cruisemom42

[mcrcruiser]

cruisermom that is a lot of new inventory . We are amazed that you were able tp post all those ships entering into  the cruise business since 2021 .  More amazing  is filling   that new inventory with passengers .Now the question could be do the cruise lines have too much capacity  .Only time will tell all  

 

 

 

[BermudaBound2014]

IMO- Cruise prices will go down when credit cards tighten up their lending.

 

Right now Credit cards are a free for all and US Consumers are trillions in debt and that debt keeps rising at a record pace. It’s a game of musical chairs if the music stops. 
 

The thing with HAL long itineraries is that I suspect most people taking those long cruises are old school with their financial approach and carry little credit card debt to begin with. I don’t see the longer/unique itineraries reduce in cost much unless we get another crisis. 
 

Edited March 10 by BermudaBound2014

[bajae]

3 hours ago, CNSJ said:

So basically, the price really is about the same.  You just had a better selection of cabins.  

Yes, it’s not that much of a difference but it is a lot more if you consider the cost to up grade to the elite drinking package and the premium internet (not that I would upgrade). 

[pghflyer]

I think the mass market destinations in the Mediterranean and Caribbean and Alaska may be impacted (price drops) by all this new inventory on large warehouse ships.....but I also think those are the most impacted by economic downturns as largely filled by casual vacationers and locals in popular big cities.  

 

For the rest of the world (where I am looking to travel and hit new places), it still doesn't feel to me like the itineraries and capacities have grown very much, and are mostly still served by the older and smaller ships.  

[chisoxfan]

Yes if valued in gold or commodities, no if valued in fiat currency.

[Menocchio]

3 hours ago, pghflyer said:

I think the mass market destinations in the Mediterranean and Caribbean and Alaska may be impacted (price drops) by all this new inventory on large warehouse ships

That's an interesting question. Right now the megaships are expensive. They're definitely the pricier options within their respective fleets and while their smaller older ships are cheaper in comparison, I don't think that they're cheaper than they had been. The megas are also the new hotness so there's some degree of charging a premium for novelty but I don't know if that will necessarily fade away entirely. Or fast enough that the supply is equilibrated by disposing of the smaller ships.

 

I'm not going to argue economics, but suffice to say that I don't agree with the OP that a recession is necessarily imminent. Though over a long enough time some downturn is eventually inevitable. And then prices will drop. And then rise again after the economy recovers. If you can predict the timing of all that, you have more important things to do than book cruises. 

 

But much more above that is in the not very distant future, I think cruising (all forms of travel actually) are going to be hugely impacted by climate change. Both the actually effects of climate change and the legislation crafted to try and address it. We're sailing into a whole new world, I have little idea what it will look like. It might involve the return of ocean liners! In twenty years the main business of the Holland America Line might once again be transporting people across the ocean and not running laps to let retirees and vacationers look at scenic glaciers and visit nice beaches. 

[chisoxfan]

47 minutes ago, Menocchio said:

That's an interesting question. Right now the megaships are expensive. They're definitely the pricier options within their respective fleets and while their smaller older ships are cheaper in comparison, I don't think that they're cheaper than they had been. The megas are also the new hotness so there's some degree of charging a premium for novelty but I don't know if that will necessarily fade away entirely. Or fast enough that the supply is equilibrated by disposing of the smaller ships.

 

I'm not going to argue economics, but suffice to say that I don't agree with the OP that a recession is necessarily imminent. Though over a long enough time some downturn is eventually inevitable. And then prices will drop. And then rise again after the economy recovers. If you can predict the timing of all that, you have more important things to do than book cruises. 

 

But much more above that is in the not very distant future, I think cruising (all forms of travel actually) are going to be hugely impacted by climate change. Both the actually effects of climate change and the legislation crafted to try and address it. We're sailing into a whole new world, I have little idea what it will look like. It might involve the return of ocean liners! In twenty years the main business of the Holland America Line might once again be transporting people across the ocean and not running laps to let retirees and vacationers look at scenic glaciers and visit nice beaches. 

I heard they are looking at electric (sourced by batteries) cruise ships and they will be mandated by 2030. There will be mid ocean charging stations driven by wind power. It will take two weeks to cross the Atlantic but the government will give us a tax credit for the cruise.  

[POA1]

15 hours ago, cruisemom42 said:

Is there really far less inventory?

I was referring to HAL inventory in particular. However, inflation is a huge factor as well. That's not going away any time soon. Unless there's deflation, which is not good, you're still stuck with higher underlying costs.

 

 

Edited March 10 by POA1

[chisoxfan]

4 minutes ago, POA1 said:

I was referring to HAL inventory in particular. However, inflation is a huge factor as well. That's not going away any time soon. Unless there's deflation, which is not good, you're still stuck with higher underlying costs.

Actually deflation is good. Does anyone not want to pay less for goods and services?