Could Cruise Prices Come Down ?

[POA1]

12 minutes ago, chisoxfan said:

Actually deflation is good. Does anyone not want to pay less for goods and services?

Deflation is very bad. Unless someone's got nostalgia for the Great Depression.

 

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/040715/were-there-any-periods-major-deflation-us-history.asp

[Hlitner]

As Cruisemom pointed out, there is a lot of new cruise ship inventory with a lot more to come.  There are some pretty good bargains in the cruise world for those that are somewhat flexible in terms of ships, cruise lines, etc.  Folks that limit themselves to a single cruise line or have other limitations are simply reducing their options.  In fact, in the past 6 months we have booked several cruises, but all with luxury or premium cruise lines, since this is where we are currently finding the best value.  

 

Hank

[chisoxfan]

41 minutes ago, POA1 said:

Deflation is very bad. Unless someone's got nostalgia for the Great Depression.

 

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/040715/were-there-any-periods-major-deflation-us-history.asp

Thanks for the quick link to 'educate' me. Technology has been a positive and dominant  force which causes deflation.  Look at TV's and computers.... are you upset they are getting less expensive or that a 1966 Zenith Space Command 25" TV that based on median US income cost two weeks of labor when you can buy a 65" LED for a few days (or less) work (not trying to fix exact numbers to this just a general concept).

This natural and positive deflation has 'fought' with the inflation of our currency due largely  to government printing money and deficit spending.  You obviously did not read the article you cited since it refers to other deflationary times:

Deflation in the 19th Century

While the U.S. did not have a single national currency until after the Civil War, economists can still track consumer prices in terms of the exchange value of gold. Buoyed by the rise of industrial mechanization after the war, the prices of goods dropped starting in 1815 and continued to drop until 1860. Even though prices were dropping, output grew consistently during this time and continued to grow at the same time that prices were dropping until approximately 1860, at the start of the Civil War.2

During the period between 1873 and 1879, prices dropped by nearly 3% every year, yet real national product growth was around 7% during the same time period.3

 

I would love to have 7% growth and 3% deflation over 45 years, but we weren't so lucky then as to have a Federal Reserve to manage our economy. Since the Fed was created in 1913 with the mandate to maintain the value of the dollar it has lost 98%.

 

Yes the Great Depression was a bad time as was the Great Financial Crisis but deflation did not cause these events but was a product of them. 

 

Anyway sorry to get into the weeds on this on (of all places) a Cruise Critic post but had to comment on the statement you made.

 

[Ken the cruiser]

On 3/9/2024 at 2:12 PM, mcrcruiser said:

 Seems to us that high government spending is keeping the economy afloat but , that too must slow down or stop i. Credit card debt has reached a all tome high of a Trillion dollars . Will consumers pull back on spending ? . Then what will happen to the stock market ;as consumer spending represents 2/3 of the National economy ?  Since cruises still are considered a luxury  can  consumer demand still  keep  cruise bookings moving higher  while  consumers face harder times ?  Thus could we see  cruise prices actually drop from these lofty high levels ?

 

 It will be interesting what other people think 

As others have mentioned, IMHO it’s all about supply and demand. What I have found interesting is how each cruise line’s “booking enticements” have evolved since cruising started back up, especially when it comes to whether they need to add more perks and unique itineraries (due to more supply than demand) or ease off on them (due to more demand than supply).

 

For example, HAL has enticed us after a 5-year absence to book a 22-day cruise with them in 2025 because of their combination of reduced prices along with multiple booking perks the earlier you book a cruise with them. They have also designed a 28-day Alaska itinerary that includes going to Nome that definitely has our attention.

 

OTOH Celebrity, whom we cruised exclusively with for our first 9 cruises once cruising started back up and where pent up demand has definitely been on the rise since 2022, has done a complete about face by imposing a 20% surcharge in 2023 for booking with a refundable deposit as well as shortening some of their longer itineraries to accommodate the increased “shorter cruise” demand by the younger working demographic. They also recently removed Gratuities from their All Include perk package. Did I mention we are in our early 70s and enjoy longer 3-5 week cruises. 😂

Then there is Princess and NCL with their unique itineraries and perk packages, which fall somewhere in the middle.

 

Edited March 10 by Ken the cruiser

[AFNavigator]

4 hours ago, Hlitner said:

As Cruisemom pointed out, there is a lot of new cruise ship inventory with a lot more to come.  There are some pretty good bargains in the cruise world for those that are somewhat flexible in terms of ships, cruise lines, etc.  Folks that limit themselves to a single cruise line or have other limitations are simply reducing their options.  In fact, in the past 6 months we have booked several cruises, but all with luxury or premium cruise lines, since this is where we are currently finding the best value.  

 

Hank

 I find it troubling that none of the.2022 and newer inventory, and ordered new ships, are HAL.  Other than the 3 Pinnacle class ships, HAL's inventory is an average of about 20 years old.  That' doesn't seem like a sustainable path forward.

 

How do you buy new half $Billion+ ships?  You have to raise a ton of money and one way is via high fares.

[sambamama]

Bargains in travel are not in cruises usually any more. It is in land travel in cheaper countries. HAL has priced this solo cruiser pretty much out of booking cruises any more with them for the time being. 

[Blackduck59]

I find the point of availability sort of misleading. While indeed there may be many new berths available, how many are on ships of a size the average person in the HAL demographic are going to want to book. I'm not talking in terms of "age" but more in what the average cruiser enjoys on HAL. A more classic feel onboard, longer voyages, fewer kids, no climbing walls, or wave runners, or amusement parks. Good food (not gourmet) that I don't have to cook or clean up after. Some think that more expensive lines are the answer, we tried Viking and didn't find it a good value for us. We have looked at Oceana and Regent and the price is prohibitive for us. I don't think there will be price drops on the itineraries we find interesting; and all of the new builds listed in a previous post (other than the premium lines like Viking) are way too big for our liking.

Edited March 11 by Blackduck59

[TRLD]

On 3/9/2024 at 1:49 PM, POA1 said:

Demand is back up to pre-shutdown levels, but there is far less inventory. That's going to create an imbalance on the demand side

While occupancy has recovered it is still not back to 2019 levels. 2023 levels were about 5% below 2019. Has exceeded 100%, but not up to the 2019 levels.

[TRLD]

One very good way to see how the industry is going is to look at the 10k and 10q filings and use the passenger day day to get the revenue, on board spend, and various expenses per passenger per day and compare over time.

[POA1]

7 hours ago, chisoxfan said:

You obviously did not read the article you cited since it refers to other deflationary times:

I most certainly did read the article. The other deflationary times were pretty severe recessions. (You read those parts, right?) Technology lowers prices of particular goods or services. TVs and long distance costs have dropped, but you still have overall inflation. I think you're conflating technological downward price pressure with the overall economy.

[terrydtx]

On 3/9/2024 at 2:32 PM, kazu said:

I do the future cruise listings and Bon Voyage threads.

For most of the Bon Voyage itineraries, I have to go to the sold out section of HAL. Cruises have been selling very well.  Maybe the Caribbean cruises will come down but I doubt HAL’s longer, nicer itineraries will.  If anything, I have seen those prices rise since I booked, not decrease.

 

I think people sailing on those are not suffering from high credit card debt, etc.  Remember, more than Americans sail and they did not get the covid influx of funds that some in the United States did.  They seem to be managing 😉 

I agree with your assessment. We booked our August Volendam cruise in February last year in a Vista Suite and now only guarantee cabins are available but they are about $1000pp more than when we booked our Category A VS. We have been on 7 post covid cruises on HAL and Celebrity and not once have I seen a price drop after we booked, and we tend to book early. Of the two lines Celebrity had the most dramatic price increases after we booked.

[chisoxfan]

11 hours ago, POA1 said:

I most certainly did read the article. The other deflationary times were pretty severe recessions. (You read those parts, right?) Technology lowers prices of particular goods or services. TVs and long distance costs have dropped, but you still have overall inflation. I think you're conflating technological downward price pressure with the overall economy.

I was reacting to your simple post that:

Deflation is very bad. Unless someone's got nostalgia for the Great Depression.

Deflation is not defined by the Great Depression nor is Inflation defined by the German hyperinflation of the 1930's. Both are the results of a monetary policy and can and do vary in degree. Productivity (largely driven  by technology) has  been an  amazing force over the past hundred years which all things being equal would increase goods and services and lower prices- deflation.  Unfortunately government creation of money to supply the deficit 'monster'  has more money chasing goods and services- the definition of inflation. So productivity can't keep up with government printing to be simplistic. Deflation is the death knell for debt holders (the biggest being the US gov.) so while stable prices and mild deflation are positive,  as we have seen over the past century inflation is the dominant and probably destructive path.

Not praying for a Great Depression or hoping for runaway Inflation (much more likely) just lamenting that our productivity improvents have not kept up with government largesse to date and a little deflation could  be welcome not dreaded by savers and people not in heavy debt.

[cruisemom42]

12 hours ago, Blackduck59 said:

I find the point of availability sort of misleading. While indeed there may be many new berths available, how many are on ships of a size the average person in the HAL demographic are going to want to book. I'm not talking in terms of "age" but more in what the average cruiser enjoys on HAL. A more classic feel onboard, longer voyages, fewer kids, no climbing walls, or wave runners, or amusement parks. Good food (not gourmet) that I don't have to cook or clean up after. Some think that more expensive lines are the answer, we tried Viking and didn't find it a good value for us. We have looked at Oceana and Regent and the price is prohibitive for us. I don't think there will be price drops on the itineraries we find interesting; and all of the new builds listed in a previous post (other than the premium lines like Viking) are way too big for our liking.

 

The list I provided was general because the OP's question didn't seem HAL-specific. In truth, I agree with you and it has worried me for years while ship sizes have kept increasing and cruise lines have routinely gotten rid of their smaller ships. 

 

I have tried a couple of larger ships (largest has been 3500), and I just do not like them. 

 

I'm not particularly loyal to any cruise line, but still there are fewer and fewer options out there that are affordable to those who think a "small" should should have <1,000 passengers! 

 

I've basically reduced my options to a small percentage of available ships and a number of those really stretch my budget -- especially as a solo cruiser -- unless I can find a sale or special deal.

 

I suppose at some point there will not be any ships left that are both the size I like and the price I can afford -- such is life.

 

[TRLD]

3 hours ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

The list I provided was general because the OP's question didn't seem HAL-specific. In truth, I agree with you and it has worried me for years while ship sizes have kept increasing and cruise lines have routinely gotten rid of their smaller ships. 

 

I have tried a couple of larger ships (largest has been 3500), and I just do not like them. 

 

I'm not particularly loyal to any cruise line, but still there are fewer and fewer options out there that are affordable to those who think a "small" should should have <1,000 passengers! 

 

I've basically reduced my options to a small percentage of available ships and a number of those really stretch my budget -- especially as a solo cruiser -- unless I can find a sale or special deal.

 

I suppose at some point there will not be any ships left that are both the size I like and the price I can afford -- such is life.

 

Even most of the premium lines are building ships over 1000. 

 

Pretty soon it will only be luxury lines, if even them.

[Roz]

19 hours ago, sambamama said:

Bargains in travel are not in cruises usually any more. It is in land travel in cheaper countries. HAL has priced this solo cruiser pretty much out of booking cruises any more with them for the time being. 

 

I just had this same conversation with my sister.  When I retired I was hoping to be able to take advantage of last minute deals, but there are no bargains out there.  If anything, fares have gone up.  The price of nothing, including cruises fares, has gone down.  

[*Miss G*]

4 minutes ago, Roz said:

 

I just had this same conversation with my sister.  When I retired I was hoping to be able to take advantage of last minute deals, but there are no bargains out there.  If anything, fares have gone up.  The price of nothing, including cruises fares, has gone down.  

 

I find the best deals are the private fares.  Other than that, I monitor an online site, fairly regularly, as sometimes you can catch a blip of a great deal, but those are gone just as fast as they are posted.  You have to be quick.

[YourWorldWithBill]

16 hours ago, Blackduck59 said:

Some think that more expensive lines are the answer, we tried Viking and didn't find it a good value for us. We have looked at Oceana and Regent and the price is prohibitive for us. I don't think there will be price drops on the itineraries we find interesting; and all of the new builds listed in a previous post (other than the premium lines like Viking) are way too big for our liking.

We agree; we sailed on Viking and Oceania, and are sticking with HAL. We didn't find that the things we felt to be the benefits of the other two were worth the additional cost. Service on Viking is more personalized, but Club Orange compensates for that. Oceania has some nice specialty restaurants, but not nice enough to pay so much more. And we found the staff members on HAL ships just seemed happier than the ones on Oceania.

[albingirl]

To the OP, yes, things can come down. They can also, more than likely, go up.  There you have it.  Economics 101. 

[chisoxfan]

17 hours ago, *Miss G* said:

 

I find the best deals are the private fares.  Other than that, I monitor an online site, fairly regularly, as sometimes you can catch a blip of a great deal, but those are gone just as fast as they are posted.  You have to be quick.

We are those newly retired people who are disappointed at the price/ value prop today but feel if you can be open to different cruise lines/ itineraries there will be opportunities. At the end of the day we aren't looking for 'giveaway' prices but just don't feel 

[ExArkie]

On 3/9/2024 at 6:20 PM, ontheweb said:

Economists have been predicting a recession on the horizon for quite a bit of time now, and yet the economy instead just seems to keep growing.

 

Actually, I do not hear those predictions as much now, so maybe we better look out for a recession. 😒  Economists have been less accurate than the people who predict the weather.

John Kenneth Galbraith: “The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.”

[chisoxfan]

19 minutes ago, ExArkie said:

John Kenneth Galbraith: “The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.”

When you look at money supply it is pretty simple to imagine why cruise prices (and asset prices) have gone up. That said the cure for high prices is high prices (a common economic refrain) and I personally feel despite being awash in money we are seeing the conumer pullback. Better odds of winning at the Sport Book than making short term sense of our distorted economy.