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Info on Hurricane Irma


Swinden
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I will like to elaborate on our experience in Wilma.

 

We flew into Ft Lauderdale the night before for a cruise.

Wilma came thru that night. We thought that we were fine as we were there.

 

Sitting in the lounge at he hotel we talked to a resident that booked a room there because he lived in a mobile or prefab home and wanted to be in a solid structure.

 

He told us that the safest place was in the bathroom. My wife slept in the bath tub. He said to close the drapes and don't stand near the window as most people are killed or injured by flying objects.

 

The storm came thru and power went out. Water supply was soon stopped as they shut it down to protect the water supply. No air condtioning and no lights, couldn't flush the toilet. Couldn't do anything except lie in bed.

 

The next day everything was shut down. Employees couldn't get to work and there were no utilities.

 

The manager/owner of the hotel helped to coordinate thing. A few employees came in and they cooked up hamburgers on a charcoal grill. $10 for the burger, cash only. The bar was open and he was selling beer, water and etc, no fancy drinks.

 

Everyone was trying contact the cruise line and were put on hold for hours. Phones were running down. It is best to have someone at home to be the base for you. Have them call the cruise line or watch the news, or internet for you and pass on the information. If you drove you could always charge your phone in the car,

 

The port was damaged and ships couldn't get in. No further information. The owner said we could spend the next night and gave us a decent rate the same as the previous night. It was basically a bed to sleep in, still no power and no water. He processed our info to be charged later if we paid using a CC.

 

The next day the owner said that he found out that all of the ships were now going to sail out of Miami. There were many customers going on a cruise. We were in Ft Lauderdale with no way to get there. Taxis were hard to get because they were running out of fuel.

 

The manager knew a transportation company that would take all of us to Miami for $20 pp. Cash only.

 

We went to Miami and as we approached that port we found that it was also closed. We weren't sailing that day. He got on his phone. He then said that he called a friend of his that is the manager of a hotel nearby. We could get a room that electricity and water for $130. cash only. We paid the money and got our room. The next day we took a cab to the port and got on the ship.

 

It was a 8 day cruise, cut short by two days. The cruise line refunded 25% plus gave us $100 SBC. Moany people complained that they wanted more. Not the cruise lines fault.

 

The ship also provided transportation back to Ft Lauderdales airport

 

So as I said in a prior post. Have cash, bottled water, food to eat, and don't try to call the cruise line because you will be on hold for hours. Be able to roll with the punches and just enjoy the experience as it is exciting and something that you will never know how bad it is until you are in one. I have been stranded at sea on a cruise during Sandy and been in two hurricanes. Can't think of the name of the other but we were driving from from Montreal to Winston Salem where my son lived and we got caught in it. Unbelievable how many trees fell across the freeway and the way that the road got covered with pine needles.

 

Happy cruising 🌊🚢🇺🇸🌞

Edited by miched
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Just watched videos from St Maarten. They are completely destroyed. Anguilla, and nos St. Thomas is in the eye. How horrible for those people! We are supposed to be heading to the islands in April. I remember being the first ship into St. Maarten years ago right after a hurricane hit. If you've been there, you know the mountains right behind the main street? Nothing but blue tarps and since we were the first ship back after the devastation, the people were there with bands, entertainers and locals to greet us. Our hearts go out to all in the Caribbean and now Florida. Watching the Keys.:eek:<|3

 

Pat C

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Celebrity / Royal Caribbean Chief Meteorologist, James Van Fleet is another great source of information on Hurricane Irma

 

He is currently posting twice daily updates on his Twitter feed.

 

https://twitter.com/JamesVanFleet

 

Isn't he the guy who predicted a "window of opportunity" for the Liberty of the Seas, last week in Galveston? This drew people to there rather than losing the cruise cost if it sailed without them. It also incurred the airline cost and hotel cost because they were stranded down there. Ask them what they thought of his information.

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Prayers for all of the residents of those islands. Many of whom do business with the cruise ships.

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Forums

 

Ditto ----- can not imagine the chaos and fear.

Prayers are with all of those affected tonight from the UK

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Here is your afternoon / evening briefing on Irma AND Jose.... if you are in the path of this deadly and destructive storm, prepare and get out of the way.

 

Western Atlantic – Major Hurricane Irma: After spending the day just literally pummeling the Leeward Islands of Barbuda, St Barts, and St Maarten and this afternoon the Virgin Islands, Irma is now north of Puerto Rico and there are no signs of it weakening. This monster of a storm is truly phenomenal in that it has maintained 180 mph plus for over 30 hours. Most Cat 5 storms cannot sustain this energy.

 

Irma will miss the Turks & Caicos to the south, however the storm surge of 10 to 20 feet will literally swamp the islands.

 

 

Meanwhile in Florida, the entire state has been declared a disaster area and with pre-evacuations ordered in the south. If you are thinking of evacuating, now is the time to move before the onslaught. But the problem is that Irma is expected to track up the east coast of Florida from Miami northward. Major damage is expected. Travel will be a nightmare as airlines have already canceled flights for the weekend, and all the flights now are at capacity.

 

The eye of Irma passed over the northernmost Virgin Islands earlier this afternoon and it is now located just to their northwest. The satellite and radar presentation of the hurricane remains extremely impressive. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft reported peak SFMR winds of 156 kt and flight-level winds of 164 kt during its mission this afternoon. Although there have been no SFMR or flight-level winds as high as what was observed yesterday, the initial intensity remains 160 kt, due to the potential of undersampling. Dropsonde observations in the eye indicated that the pressure rose a few millibars this morning, but the most recent aircraft report shows that the pressure has fallen to 914 mb.

 

The hurricane remains on a west-northwestward motion at about 14 kt. A high pressure ridge over the western Atlantic is forecast to keep Irma on a west-northwestward course over the next 48 to 72 hours. The track guidance is still in good agreement during that period, and little change to the NHC forecast was required. By the weekend, a shortwave trough diving southward over the east-central United States is expected to cause Irma to turn northwestward and northward. The 12Z guidance has generally shifted slightly westward, closer to the previous NHC forecast. As a result, little overall change was made to the 4-5 day track forecast. The NHC track is once again close to the HFIP corrected consensus model. This is also near the 12Z GEFS ensemble mean, but a little east of the latest ECMWF ensemble mean. Users are reminded that the average NHC track errors at days 4 and 5 are about 175 and 225 miles, respectively.

Low vertical wind shear and warm waters along the forecast track of Irma should allow it to remain a very powerful hurricane during the next several days, and the intensity forecast is again near the upper-end of the guidance and is the same as the previous advisory through 96 hours. Increasingly southwesterly shear and potential land interaction late in the period is expected to cause some decrease in Irma's strength by day 5.

Efforts to provide the forecast models with as much data as possible continue, with 6-hourly NWS balloon launches across much of the continental United States, and the NOAA G-IV aircraft currently sampling the environment around the storm.

 

Key messages:

 

1. Irma is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane and will bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards to Puerto Rico tonight, the northern coast of Hispaniola Thursday, and the Turks and Caicos and southeastern and central Bahamas Thursday and Friday.

2. Hurricane watches are in effect for the northwestern Bahamas and much of Cuba. Irma is likely to bring dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall to portions of these areas on Friday and Saturday.

3. The threat of direct hurricane impacts in Florida over the weekend and early next week has increased. Hurricane watches could be issued for portions of the Florida Keys and the Florida peninsula on Thursday.

 

 

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 65.4 West or about 40 mi...60 km NW of St. Thomas or about 55 mi...85 km ENE of San Juan Puerto Rico. Irma is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the extremely dangerous core of Irma will pass just north of Puerto Rico tonight, pass near or just north of the coast of Hispaniola Thursday, and be near the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas by Thursday evening.

 

Maximum sustained winds are near 185 mph (295 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days.

 

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). A wind gust to 62 mph (100 km/h) has been recently reported at San Juan, Puerto Rico.

 

Watches & Warnings

 

Changes with this advisory:

 

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for the central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence.

 

The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas.

 

The government of France has discontinued the Hurricane Warning for Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy.

 

 

Summary of watches and warnings in effect:

 

 

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* British Virgin Islands

* U.S. Virgin Islands

* Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra

* Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the northern border with Haiti

* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas

* Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands

* Central Bahamas

 

 

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Cuba from Matanzas province eastward to Guantanamo province

* Northwestern Bahamas

 

 

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Dominican Republic from south of Cabo Engano westward to the southern border with Haiti

* Haiti from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince

* Cuba provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas

 

 

Hazards affecting land

 

 

Damage from a cat 5 hurricane direct hit: People, livestock, and pets are at very high risk of injury or death from flying or falling debris, even if indoors in mobile homes or framed homes. Almost complete destruction of all mobile homes will occur, regardless of age or construction. A high percentage of frame homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Extensive damage to roof covers, windows, and doors will occur. Large amounts of windborne debris will be lofted into the air. Windborne debris damage will occur to nearly all unprotected windows and many protected windows. Significant damage to wood roof commercial buildings will occur due to loss of roof sheathing. Complete collapse of many older metal buildings can occur. Most unreinforced masonry walls will fail which can lead to the collapse of the buildings. A high percentage of industrial buildings and low-rise apartment buildings will be destroyed. Nearly all windows will be blown out of high-rise buildings resulting in falling glass, which will pose a threat for days to weeks after the storm. Nearly all commercial signage, fences, and canopies will be destroyed. Nearly all trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Long-term water shortages will increase human suffering. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months. Hurricane Andrew (1992) is an example of a hurricane that brought Category 5 winds and impacts to coastal portions of Cutler Ridge, Florida with Category 4 conditions experienced elsewhere in south Miami-Dade County.

 

 

STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

 

 

Turks and Caicos Islands...15 to 20 ft

Southeastern and central Bahamas...15 to 20 ft

Northern coast of the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 ft

Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave...1 to 3 ft

Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area...5 to 10 ft

 

 

Water levels in the Leeward Islands will gradually subside tonight.

 

 

The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

 

 

British and U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix...7 to 11 ft

Northern coast of Puerto Rico...4 to 6 ft

Southern coast of Puerto Rico and St. Croix...2 to 4 ft

 

 

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

 

 

WIND: Tropical Storm and Hurricane conditions are occurring over the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and will spread westward over portions of Puerto Rico tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic and Haiti early Thursday, with tropical storm conditions beginning tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in the warning area in the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands on Thursday with tropical storm conditions by late tonight. These conditions will spread into the Central Bahamas by Thursday night.

Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the central Bahamas and Cuba by Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within the warning area in Cuba Thursday night.

 

 

RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Saturday:

 

Northern Leeward Islands...Additional 1 to 3 inches. Storm total 8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches.

Northeast Puerto Rico and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands...6 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches.

Southwest Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.

The Southern Leeward Islands, and Saint Croix...2 to 4 inches.

Southeast Bahamas, Central Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches.

Northern Dominican Republic and northern Haiti...4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.

Eastern and Central Cuba...4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.

Southwest Haiti...1 to 4 inches.

 

 

In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

 

 

SURF: Swells generated by Irma will affect the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, and portions of the southeast coast of the United States during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

 

 

 

Central Atlantic – Hurricane Jose is following his sister Irma and “may” impact the northeastern Leeward Islands this weekend.

 

 

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 45.8 West. Jose is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.

 

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Jose could be near major hurricane strength on Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km).

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We're on a 10 day cruise that docks overnight in St. Maarten in November. So sad.

 

We're also on a Nov. sailing, but starting to think we won't dock in any of the ports with the extensive damage being reported in Antigua, St Maarten..most likely Barbados and St Lucia.

 

This is a terrible loss for the islands' economy, their housing, ability to recover, utilities, injuries due to the storm, transportation between the islands, etc. And now a second one coming behind.

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Tortola hit very hard. Pussers along with numerous other buildings was leveled, JVD (Jost Va Dyke) had bars flattened. It's as bad as you can imagine. St. Maarten is almost inrecognizable. Sending prayers to all impacted.

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Forums

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