Drastic changes to FF miles programs

[Hawaiidan]

If you plan on using your saved miles, buying new ones... a word of advice.     Starting on October 30  UAL  AA will Join Delta in doing away with  the old  fixed  FF award charts and institute  DEMAND /DYNAMIC  awards.     After October 30   you can expect a simple one way in Business class  to jump up to  300,000   totally dependent on the popularity and bookings of that route   Popular cities will be dramatically  impacted,  so too  times and dates.   

 Rewards  tickets will be based on demand and can float in price...  The more demand  the higher.

Most  experienced travlers are dumping their earned miles  in the next  months before they are de-valued exponentially.  In some cases 2  business class tickets, to popular places and times could require over 1 million miles !!   No joke     

Look ar Deltas reward system... and see just how bad things will get.   Its a total revamp  and  it is anticipated everyone will  change

 

Contact your program.....  dont assume  If you have miles you intend to use after October 30    2019   and past the 330 day  release  Sept 24 then you need to prepare for a  plan B

[Tampa Girl]

AA is already doing this.  Try getting a business class to and from SA during their summer months.

[FlaMariner]

Our one way Delta flight in "steerage class" from Orlando to Florence in October was 44,000 miles.  I thought that was pretty good.

[Krazy Kruizers]

Thank you for the warning.

[iancal]

Good warning.  We were told that the airlines might be implementing this.  Cashed in our Delta points for 2 one ways to Bangkok at a surprising 35K points per seat.   Just about zeroed out the account.

 

The points requirement and the fees were considerably lower on the Korean Air option than the Delta option.   Our first Korean Air transpacific flight and we were very impressed.  Much better than the Delta flights we have taken in prior years.

[RocketMan275]

Just another reason to favor cash back versus points travel cards.  Several sites have pointed out that points can be re-valued and lose points, dramatically lose points.  You still get the same number of points, they're just worth less.  Probably caused by the number of cards with large signup points bonuses.  Cash is much harder to devalue after it's earned.

[DeeniEncinitas]

Thanks for the heads up!

Denise😊

[iancal]

Last year we moved our principal credit card away from an airline points card to a cash back travel card.

[Jammu2]

At least Delta points never expire.

[Hawaiidan]

13 minutes ago, Jammu2 said:

At least Delta points never expire.

That is so comforting to know.....

 

32 minutes ago, iancal said:

Last year we moved our principal credit card away from an airline points card to a cash back travel card.

I  use a marriott    Spending $35,000  and getting an average of 4 points per,  that earns me 140,000.    For every 25,000 I get a  free 200 room  that about 6 nights   = $1200 - $1400 value       

Getting back 2% is $700.   If you happy thats what counts.... I would not be

[Hawaiidan]

1 hour ago, iancal said:

Good warning.  We were told that the airlines might be implementing this.  Cashed in our Delta points for 2 one ways to Bangkok at a surprising 35K points per seat.   Just about zeroed out the account.

 

The points requirement and the fees were considerably lower on the Korean Air option than the Delta option.   Our first Korean Air transpacific flight and we were very impressed.  Much better than the Delta flights we have taken in prior years.

 

1 hour ago, RocketMan275 said:

Just another reason to favor cash back versus points travel cards.  Several sites have pointed out that points can be re-valued and lose points, dramatically lose points.  You still get the same number of points, they're just worth less.  Probably caused by the number of cards with large signup points bonuses.  Cash is much harder to devalue after it's earned.

Would you mind holding my Canadian dollars, Australian dollars,  British pounds, Thai Baht then.....

[Fouremco]

1 hour ago, RocketMan275 said:

Just another reason to favor cash back versus points travel cards.  Several sites have pointed out that points can be re-valued and lose points, dramatically lose points.  You still get the same number of points, they're just worth less.  Probably caused by the number of cards with large signup points bonuses.  Cash is much harder to devalue after it's earned.

We switched from an airline points card to a cash back card with excellent returns. Within a year, they devalued the points and were no longer as attractive to hold as a primary card. Fortunately, they gave a good advance warning of their intentions and we were able to cash out at the existing rate. In general, however, I too prefer cash back to travel cards. 

[RocketMan275]

2 hours ago, Hawaiidan said:

That is so comforting to know.....

 

I  use a marriott    Spending $35,000  and getting an average of 4 points per,  that earns me 140,000.    For every 25,000 I get a  free 200 room  that about 6 nights   = $1200 - $1400 value       

Getting back 2% is $700.   If you happy thats what counts.... I would not be

My card gives 3% on travel including hotel rooms.  That's $1050 that I can use for anything not just hotel rooms.  I honestly don't need six hotel stays a year.  

[iancal]

We also do Marriott.  We stayed at Four Points Sheraton in Sydney last month.  Five nights@80,000 Points (stay four/get five).   Value to us about $1200.

[sumiandkage]

Granted, I'm not trying to redeem for long haul business seats and my local airports do not have an overly competitive airfare market on places I'd want to go , but I've pretty reliably gotten better than 2 cents per mile for Delta redemptions under dynamic pricing.  Including some unpublished award ticket 'sales'  that are decidedly under the old 25K for a domestic round trip floor. 

[Hawaiidan]

11 hours ago, RocketMan275 said:

My card gives 3% on travel including hotel rooms.  That's $1050 that I can use for anything not just hotel rooms.  I honestly don't need six hotel stays a year.  

Its what suits you....  I stay about 20 to 30 nights,  many times 5 night stretches..  and make  2 to 3 international trips / Europe and Asia  yearly for the past 10 years.   

[Hawaiidan]

9 hours ago, sumiandkage said:

Granted, I'm not trying to redeem for long haul business seats and my local airports do not have an overly competitive airfare market on places I'd want to go , but I've pretty reliably gotten better than 2 cents per mile for Delta redemptions under dynamic pricing.  Including some unpublished award ticket 'sales'  that are decidedly under the old 25K for a domestic round trip floor. 

You made out in one instance.   However the flip side of Demand/Dynamic pricing is that you can never rely on a set total as it is in constant, even daily or hourly flux.     Reliably un reliable for planning   Thats why I and other guys with big balances are dumping as fast as we can  before the new  devalued program kicks in   It will be a busy next 12 months.... Rome Sydney,Tokyo Zurich 

[iancal]

We are in the process of eliminating our Air Canada Aeroplan points for all the above reasons.  Plus AC will be introducing an entirely new plan.  

 

 The impetus for us to dump AC and move to United was the exceeding high redemption fees that AC charges and the the fact that we could seldom get business seats on points for an entire two or three leg trip. More than once our economy  fare to London (on a competitive airline) was only $100 more than the 30,000 points ticket plus fees that Aeroplan wanted.   Additionally, the business class ticket fees on the same flight (when we could get it) were always several hundred dollars more than the economy fees. 

 

We have been using our Aeroplan points to select United flights instead of AC flights because the fees historically have been so much less on United.  Even on United/Ac code shares.    

Edited April 24, 2019 by iancal

[GeezerCouple]

17 hours ago, Tampa Girl said:

AA is already doing this.  Try getting a business class to and from SA during their summer months.

The awards tickets are difficult to get, or the number of points has skyrocketed?

We weren't aware the latter had happened with AA yet.  (Even for UA, it's apparently happening in the fall.)

 

GC

[RocketMan275]

The Points Guy on Travel Points:

 https://thepointsguy.com/2015/07/points-miles-bad-investment/

 

Sure, they're great but only if you use them before you lose them.

 

[iancal]

Good article. We have given up on Aeroplan, Delta, AA points.  Actually on United as well.  If get them for free we will take them but we will not go out of our way to fly on them or their partners.   

 

Same with hotel programs.  We gave up on Hilton`s program years ago.  It`s awful.   It does not of course stop of from selecting a Hilton hotel but the program is definitely not an incentive to do so   We use our Marriott points but reserve them for hotels in high cost areas.   I hesitated about moving to a cash back travel card but looking back over the past 18-24 months it has been the better choice for us. 

 

Most of our air travel is either on low cost SE Asia  or European airlines or on the competitve transatlantic and transpacific routes.   The found the redemption value to be quite low on domestic flights.

Edited April 24, 2019 by iancal

[Tampa Girl]

1 hour ago, GeezerCouple said:

The awards tickets are difficult to get, or the number of points has skyrocketed?

We weren't aware the latter had happened with AA yet.  (Even for UA, it's apparently happening in the fall.)

 

GC

 

From January 2, 2020, on, the available seats on a flight from Santiago to MIA are costing 130K for Economy, with a few 75K seats; and 195K for business.  No Milesaver seats.  We ended up buying economy plus seats for the 8-1/2 hr. flight.

[waterbug123]

20 hours ago, iancal said:

Good article. We have given up on Aeroplan, Delta, AA points.

 

If one sticks with a particular airline primarily for redeemable frequent flyer points, I agree- if that airline's changes don't align with your needs, no need to be loyal.   On the other hand, many of us stick primarily with one airline for status-earning frequent flyer points and I find those to still be valuable.  The redeemable frequent flyer points that also come with the package are a bonus, but not the reason for the loyalty.  That said, everyone has complained about Delta's switch to dynamic pricing for award tickets, but I haven't felt the negative change.  I flew to Ireland a few weeks ago in Delta One (biz class) for 98K miles round trip; bought a last minute (literally 12 hours pre-flight) ticket to Tampa for less than 20k miles last fall; purchased several "normal" priced domestic award tickets last summer; and upgraded two trips to first class recently for less than 10k miles each way. 

[LF23]

Better info on the AA prediction: 

 

https://thepointsguy.com/news/american-airlines-possible-dynamic-award-pricing/

[Gardyloo]

This has been coming for some time, and to me it makes a good argument that if you're not trying to achieve elite status with an airline, you're probably better earning miles through a hotel (or at least non-airline) credit card that allows you to transfer hotel points to airline mileage accounts, sometimes with a pretty good exchange rate.

 

For example, Marriott's "Rewards Plus" program (now called "Bonvoy") allows you to transfer Marriott points (earned through the usual channels including co-branded credit cards like with the airlines) to any of a very large number of airline frequent flyer programs (44 at present to be specific.)  So, while it can be time-consuming, you can shop for well-priced airline awards across numerous airlines, then if you see a decent deal, transfer your Marriott points into that airline's frequent flyer program (which you can join for free) then turn around and redeem them.  This might be near instantaneous or might take a day, during which you might be at risk of losing the seats, but it's better than being trapped in one airline program where "dynamic pricing" results in lousy deals forever.