Airline Costs Week Before Christmas

[LuCruise]

Not sure if anyone knows airline costs/patterns.

 

We need to fly from Toronto to FLL the day before our cruise in Dec.  We booked the week before the Christmas holidays so we need a flight Sat Dec 14 - Sat Dec 21 (cruise is Sun-Sat)

We do have some restrictions/preferences:

• It is just DH travelling and so it's not ideal to leave super early in the morning as our kids will be home alone until grandparents arrive (we can do this though...just not ideal)
• There are cheaper flights leaving at 4:45pm but to us, that defeats the purpose for going a day early (as what if there are weather issues that day and flights are cancelled with no later flight as it is late already)
• We want to fly direct going there (if it saves enough money, we will do 1 stop on return)
• We want to avoid Air Transat or other airlines that only have 1 flight per day going there (not ideal but we aren't dismissing it on the way back)
• Since weather is unpredictable in December, although not dismissing, we prefer not to fly out of Buffalo 

 

We're finding prices that meet above are quite expensive and will cost us $1200 - $1400  depending on the airlines/times we select.

 

This surprises us as we thought that the week before the holidays would be cheaper (as anyone who works and has kids doesn't want to have 3 weeks off as kids are already off for 2 for holidays).

 

Anyone know if this is typical?  Or do we have a chance of those flights dropping?  It's so hard to know whether to just jump on a flight and book....or whether to wait.  As a comparison of same flight times (Sat to Sat....WestJet leaving 9:50am, and returning from FLL at 12pm):

• 2 weeks before Christmas holidays = $1063
• 1 week before Christmas holidays (i.e. our week) = $1400
• Christmas holidays  = $2313 

 

I've also looked at the option of flying into Miami (which is more expensive) and West Palm Beach (cheaper but then uber would negate the savings in flight).

 

Hopper says to wait but not sure how accurate it is.  When I check, the cost seems to go up each day (small amount, but going up).  Ugh....

 

Edited April 25, 2019 by LuCruise

[Bo1953]

Sounds like you have done your homework!

 

If you wait, you may risk either a sold out situation and/or increased fare...

 

I presume the fares cited are for non-refundable, correct? If not, maybe you purchase now and watch fares?

 

You may really need to consider one (1) of your least desirable options.

 

bon voyage

[FlyerTalker]

You sound a bit like Goldilocks.

 

We don't want an early flight.

We don't want a late flight.

We don't' want to fly AirTransat.

We don't want to make a connection.

 

Well, that's going to limit your options A LOT.  Only three airlines fly YYZ-FLL non-stop, and you won't fly one of them.

 

Also, assuming you are quoting prices for TWO tickets (most discussions here are about a per person cost) and in Canadian dollars.

 

I don't really expect there to be any significant downward movement in pricing.  First off, you're travelling on a "cruise day", so demand will be strong.  In addition, you are in the holiday travel window, for further strong demand.  My big question - how much of a downward number are you expecting - and how much upward movement can you tolerate?  Too often, folks seem to want to wait, if only to save a small percentage, while at the same time exposing them to multiple times that in upward cost risk.

 

So, what's your risk/reward tolerance?

 

[LuCruise]

2 hours ago, Bo1953 said:

Sounds like you have done your homework!

 

If you wait, you may risk either a sold out situation and/or increased fare...

 

I presume the fares cited are for non-refundable, correct? If not, maybe you purchase now and watch fares?

 

You may really need to consider one (1) of your least desirable options.

 

bon voyage

Yes...these are non-refundable fares.  

Good point about our preferred times getting sold out. Thanks.

[LuCruise]

1 hour ago, FlyerTalker said:

You sound a bit like Goldilocks.

 

We don't want an early flight.

We don't want a late flight.

We don't' want to fly AirTransat.

We don't want to make a connection.

 

Well, that's going to limit your options A LOT.  Only three airlines fly YYZ-FLL non-stop, and you won't fly one of them.

 

Also, assuming you are quoting prices for TWO tickets (most discussions here are about a per person cost) and in Canadian dollars.

 

I don't really expect there to be any significant downward movement in pricing.  First off, you're travelling on a "cruise day", so demand will be strong.  In addition, you are in the holiday travel window, for further strong demand.  My big question - how much of a downward number are you expecting - and how much upward movement can you tolerate?  Too often, folks seem to want to wait, if only to save a small percentage, while at the same time exposing them to multiple times that in upward cost risk.

 

So, what's your risk/reward tolerance?

 

Your Goldilocks comment really wasn't necessary.  That's why I used the word "preferences" and "not ideal". 

 

The second part of your post is what I was asking and helpful and you could have just responded with that.  I was thinking that before Christmas wouldn't be holiday season but it seems like it does in fact starts earlier, which would then affect pricing? 

Yes sorry...never stated...pricing is in CAD and for 2 people.

 

Hopper says to wait but not sure how accurate it is, or how it makes it prediction. 

 

Yes...need to think about how much we are ok to wait it out and see if it rises.  Or...if its known that right before is in fact holiday pricing...then sounds like we should just figure out how much we will pay and what "preference" we will be ok not keeping, and just book.

[Zach1213]

27 minutes ago, LuCruise said:

Your Goldilocks comment really wasn't necessary.  That's why I used the word "preferences" and "not ideal". 

 

The second part of your post is what I was asking and helpful and you could have just responded with that.  I was thinking that before Christmas wouldn't be holiday season but it seems like it does in fact starts earlier, which would then affect pricing? 

Yes sorry...never stated...pricing is in CAD and for 2 people.

 

Hopper says to wait but not sure how accurate it is, or how it makes it prediction. 

 

Yes...need to think about how much we are ok to wait it out and see if it rises.  Or...if its known that right before is in fact holiday pricing...then sounds like we should just figure out how much we will pay and what "preference" we will be ok not keeping, and just book.

 

I think the "goldilocks" was a good way to show others who read that restrictions can greatly reduce options and increase pricing.

 

As far as Hopper goes, I haven't really seen any "prediction" websites that are worth a damn. I don't know how they work, but airline pricing schemes are incredibly complex and proprietary, so while any software may be able to look at what people have paid for the same/similar trips and compare it to a few other things, it's unlikely to really give a solid prediction. Also, it doesn't have any way of predicting that a group of 10 people may buy that same routing tomorrow and kill off the low fare bucket, sending you in the next one a few hundred dollars more expensive.

 

Long story short...yeah, unfortunately no good prediction. You just have to buy at a price you're comfortable with and not look back.

[Alaskanb]

You are flying high season to Florida --cold Ontario to warm Florida. 

 

[sumiandkage]

Between about December 15 and January 7, the only moderate airfare dates to and from Florida are Christmas and New Year's Day proper. 

 

I do think i most years though some somewhat cheaper fare buckets don't get loaded for the season until August or September or so. We live in Florida and have family in Michigan and don't typically book until around that time of year because we historically do better then. (Of course past performance doesn't guarantee future results) 

[LuCruise]

Thank you all.  We ended up just booking.  Decided to give on the first bullet and we booked an early flight out...but selected an airline both ways with which we feel more comfortable.  Definitely much more expensive than when we go end of summer or compared with first week of Dec when we went last year...but it is what it is.  And guess at least we know we won't pay more than we paid.

Now I just gotta make sure to not look again. 😉

 

 

 

 

Edited April 25, 2019 by LuCruise

[LuCruise]

32 minutes ago, sumiandkage said:

Between about December 15 and January 7, the only moderate airfare dates to and from Florida are Christmas and New Year's Day proper. 

 

I do think i most years though some somewhat cheaper fare buckets don't get loaded for the season until August or September or so. We live in Florida and have family in Michigan and don't typically book until around that time of year because we historically do better then. (Of course past performance doesn't guarantee future results) 

Yeah...you hear there is a sweet spot for booking (I forget the exact number of days)...and sometimes an airline will release a flight that is a good price.  But guess now I don't need to stress about "if" that will happen.

 

PS - Now focusing on airline for our March Break cruise...when to jump on that one...hmmm.......

[Hlitner]

I know you do not want to fly out of Buffalo, but it might be worth your while.  Southwest flies between Buffalo and FLL (they even have a non-stop)!  They have not opened up their fares for December but that should happen on May 23.  Those who book quickly (once the schedule opens) will often get very good fares.   The downside is that you will have to wait a month to see the schedule and fares.  Also consider that the Southwest fares include luggage (2 pieces per person).

 

Hank

[Globaliser]

7 hours ago, LuCruise said:

Yeah...you hear there is a sweet spot for booking (I forget the exact number of days)

 

If there really were a sweet spot for booking on which you could rely, wouldn't you - and everyone else - book on that date? And if so, why would the airlines willingly forego money by making flights cheap when booked on that date?

 

The so-called sweet spots are usually identified by some form of averaging. But it's really dangerous to work back from an average figure to try to work out what you should do. There is always that one about the band of statisticians who drowned while crossing a river that was, on average, only one foot deep.

[waterbug123]

11 hours ago, LuCruise said:

Yeah...you hear there is a sweet spot for booking (I forget the exact number of days)...and sometimes an airline will release a flight that is a good price. 

 

Nope.  There is no magic day when airlines decide, randomly, to offer lower prices.  If there was, it would be easily identifiable and everyone would book on that day.  Then the airlines would see that and think "hm, everyone books on day X, let's make prices really high that day."  It's Econ 101, the laws of supply and demand.

[Zach1213]

13 hours ago, LuCruise said:

Now I just gotta make sure to not look again. 😉

 

 

 

 

 

That's the hardest part, and one I am guilty of. Good luck.

[Bo1953]

On 4/25/2019 at 7:54 PM, LuCruise said:

Thank you all.  We ended up just booking.  Decided to give on the first bullet and we booked an early flight out...but selected an airline both ways with which we feel more comfortable.  Definitely much more expensive than when we go end of summer or compared with first week of Dec when we went last year...but it is what it is.  And guess at least we know we won't pay more than we paid.

Now I just gotta make sure to not look again. 😉

 

Just like I promise myself once I book my cruise, do not look at pricing again! LOL

 

bon voyage

[Peachypooh]

On ‎4‎/‎25‎/‎2019 at 6:54 PM, LuCruise said:

Thank you all.  We ended up just booking.  Decided to give on the first bullet and we booked an early flight out...but selected an airline both ways with which we feel more comfortable.  Definitely much more expensive than when we go end of summer or compared with first week of Dec when we went last year...but it is what it is.  And guess at least we know we won't pay more than we paid.

Now I just gotta make sure to not look again. 😉

I understand. When I checked the fares for traveling for us during that week before Christmas ( out of  Miami) they are basically twice the normal amount. We fly first class and the normal fare is $600-$700. When I checked it was $1275.

The only way it would be lower would be to fly out early after our cruise and I just don't want to chance it. Also

I was astounded that one other airline was $2400 pp!!

 

On ‎4‎/‎25‎/‎2019 at 6:54 PM, LuCruise said:

 

 

 

 

 

[LuCruise]

2 hours ago, Peachypooh said:

I understand. When I checked the fares for traveling for us during that week before Christmas ( out of  Miami) they are basically twice the normal amount. We fly first class and the normal fare is $600-$700. When I checked it was $1275.

The only way it would be lower would be to fly out early after our cruise and I just don't want to chance it. Also

I was astounded that one other airline was $2400 pp!!

 

 

Yeah this surprises me but guess they consider that the start of holiday time.  We paid about the same price for that flight for 2 that we did for 4 of us in March (which is our break but New York vs Florida...which I guess is not a prime destination ).

[FlyerTalker]

7 minutes ago, LuCruise said:

Yeah this surprises me but guess they consider that the start of holiday time. 

 

Ah, yes...the old "they/them".

 

It's not that "they" think it's a designated holiday time.  It's that "they" (or more accurately the airline's yield management department) are operating on the basis of historic and current supply and demand information.

 

If you want to blame anyone, it should be your fellow travelers that want to fly at that time of year, on those routes, and at those times.  Econ 101.