How do they fill ship

[hal2008]

Cruise line usually have to give passenger manifesto to the authority about 30-40 hours before departure (depending on the departure time) So in practical terms, they close booking by late evening of day before the departure. That day prices drop like stone (this is usually for Guaranteed rates).  For sunday departure, I recently saw prices for summer cruise drop from 999 to 249 (base prices pp) from Thu night to Friday afternoon. (Dont know if it went down to 199 or not as I started booking process at 299 and price was down to 249 when actual payment page came up). Got lucky as they moved us to midship balcony (adjoining cabin pax had booked 9 months in advance and had paid 1799 pp)

 

Of course, this strategy require you to be flexible as previous week had sold out 5 days in advance.

Edited July 10, 2019 by hal2008

[Biker19]

1 hour ago, Joseph2017China said:

Ships do not sail full!!!! 

So then, what does 108% capacity mean?

[fred30]

35 minutes ago, Biker19 said:

So then, what does 108% capacity mean?

Found this statement on a site describing cruise ship capacity.

The "full" cruise ship passenger capacity is based on double occupancy (2 guests per cabin).  

 

Example: Oasis

5,400 passengers at double occupancy 6,296 maximum

Edited July 10, 2019 by fred30

[sgmn]

1 hour ago, BunnyHutt said:

Those in the travel industry can often get smokin’ hot deals using “Interline” rates on last minute cruises.... alas, my family doesn’t have that kind of flexibility. Someday, sigh. 

Still have limited holiday though, and with staff cuts difficult to get last minute leave. Got my eye on a cruise ex Southampton in Sept. There's a lot of rooms still available but prices are still £250 higher that same cruise two years ago. Checking every day to see if price drops. Finally payment in UK is 60 days so maybe at end of month.... 

[orville99]

1 hour ago, Biker19 said:

So then, what does 108% capacity mean?

it means that the average number of passengers per cabin exceeds the double occupancy metric used to define "100% by 8%.

 

There was a cruise ship documentary on Smithsonian a while back ( I think it was a Norwegian ship) where the statement was made by the hotel director that their break-even target for onboard revenue on a cruise was at ~104% of capacity.

[Hoopster95]

1 hour ago, Biker19 said:

So then, what does 108% capacity mean?

 

1 hour ago, fred30 said:

Found this statement on a site describing cruise ship capacity.

The "full" cruise ship passenger capacity is based on double occupancy (2 guests per cabin).  

 

Example: Oasis

5,400 passengers at double occupancy 6,296 maximum

 

Yep, exactly.

More corporate b.s. math and "wording".... like "gratuities" instead "wages" (I know I know... don't poke the bears!!!). In the world of actual mathematics, 108% is impossible, cannot happen... there is no such thing as anything over 100%.

 

If Oasis sails with every cabin full at double occupancy, however can actually fit 894 more people,

then that math should be 5,400 passengers / 6,296 maximum = 85.8% 

 

Now let's say on any given sailing RCL sells half of the 3/4 person cabins thus adding say 500 extra people on board.

(5400+500) people on board / 6,296 maximum = 93.7%

 

This seems much more likely and much easier to understand as far as numbers/percentages go and should be much more logical.

Right..... logical?..... RCL?..... cruise lines??😕

Edited July 10, 2019 by Hoopster95

[PMGS247]

I think someone eluded to it but browsing the website for available cabins can be misleading due to guarantee cabins, where people have booked the sailing at a certain cabin level but agreed to allow the cruise line to assign their cabin in exchange for a lower rate.  The cruise line will assign this cabin as late as possible in order to maximize revenue and their ability to sell cabins.

 

 

Over simplified example, If they've got 100 unassigned cabins and 99 guaranteed bookings, the new prospective 100th customer can still choose any of the 100 unassigned cabins and the other 99 will go to the pre-existing guaranteed bookings.  What's interesting about this concept is that if you're a casual observer watching your sailing you think it's massively undersold with 100 cabins still available, but all 100 cabins will disappear simultaneously as soon as that 100th booking is made.  Without knowing the guaranteed bookings, which none of us ever would as customers, browsing the number of available rooms on a mock booking doesn't nearly tell the whole story of how close the sailing is or is not to selling out.

 

 

Needless to say, the cruise line can play around with shifting guaranteed bookings around in cabin assignments, even bumping them up to a higher cabin class if that helps them sell another cabin, but the point is seeing a ton of available cabins can change to zero in an instant.  I've seen people who have guaranteed bookings worry about this....suddenly no cabins are available...."do I still have a cabin? they all appear to be sold."  Yes, one of them is yours, the cruise line is just still playing shell games in the background maximizing bookings so they will hold off on setting your cabin in stone until the last minute just in case they find a way to benefit by shifting you around between now and then.

Edited July 10, 2019 by PMGS247

[legaljen1969]

17 hours ago, Host Clarea said:

People keep paying the higher prices.

As long as people keep paying the higher prices, they will keep charging them for sure.   It creates a sense of "must have" in some people- the higher the price, the better is "must be."   Disney World is a great example of this too.   They keep raising prices and charging more and more fees, and people keep paying them like it is essential to life with the "well what are you going to do, you have to pay the prices."  They build more and more attractions and lodging.
Same with Royal-more and more ships, higher and higher prices and the people still keep coming like they can't live without it. 
Create a product that people want and crave, and they will pay whatever you ask for a piece of the action.

[Starry Eyes]

18 hours ago, maggieb1 said:

I have been reading about how prices go up, not down, as cruise date gets closer. But I also am reading that they sail with full ships. So if they don't lower prices how do they fill them?

I am sailing in 4 mos and there appear to be lots of unsold cabins

Ah, so there appear to be lots of unsold cabins 4 months out.  I’d make a few points.  

 

First, you cannot know how many unsold cabins there may be.  Sure, you may see many cabins available for selection in various categories, but there may be many people holding unassigned gty booking (we pick your cabin) bookings.  Leaving those folks unassigned let’s people who wish to pick there own cabin have choices...that may be what you are seeing right now.

 

Secondly, four months is plenty of time.  Plenty of people do not or cannot plan that far ahead.

 

Third, unless yours Holiday or other special sailing, fall can be a relatively slack period, so you less surprising that you are seeing plenty of supply.  And if you are going to the Caribbean, even more so this year with the cancellation of Cuba sailings impacting the supply and demand curve this fall.  That my work in your favor...Keep an eye out.  Perhaps you will catch a low cost upgrade upgrade opportunity.

[geoherb]

I frequently tracked prices of cruises when DH was teaching at a community college. Most years, we were able to find a last-minute deal for his breaks--something booked after the final payment date. Some years, though, the prices of all the cruises I was tracking went up. Of course spring break and the Christmas holidays are high demand times for cruises. But even then, we were able to take cruises because some would not sell as well as others and would go down in price after the final payment date.

 

 

[Joseph2017China]

4 hours ago, Biker19 said:

So then, what does 108% capacity mean?

Summer months, the ship sails "full" or nearly full.  100% means 2 people per room.  108% means you pass the 2 per room.  Each ship has a total capacity, which might be 110% or it might even be higher. However, book a cruise in October, and chances are the ship is well below 100%.  The poster is asking 4 months from now, which will be October/early November.  Most likely, the ship will not be sailing full, and will still have capacity.  I would say a good 6-7 months out of the year, the capacity will hover around 100% or slightly less, and depending on the makeup of guests, you can still find 50 or more rooms available. (even at 100% this can happen)  I have sailed many times where the ship count was below the max.

[proggieus]

5 hours ago, hal2008 said:

Cruise line usually have to give passenger manifesto to the authority about 30-40 hours before departure (depending on the departure time) So in practical terms, they close booking by late evening of day before the departure. That day prices drop like stone (this is usually for Guaranteed rates).  For sunday departure, I recently saw prices for summer cruise drop from 999 to 249 (base prices pp) from Thu night to Friday afternoon. (Dont know if it went down to 199 or not as I started booking process at 299 and price was down to 249 when actual payment page came up). Got lucky as they moved us to midship balcony (adjoining cabin pax had booked 9 months in advance and had paid 1799 pp)

 

Of course, this strategy require you to be flexible as previous week had sold out 5 days in advance.

that's actually not true-

 

law is 90 minutes before departure-

 

72 hours is for ships arriving that departed from a foreign port.

 

[Biker19]

2 hours ago, Joseph2017China said:

Summer months, the ship sails "full" or nearly full.  100% means 2 people per room.  108% means you pass the 2 per room.  

For many or the lay person reading CC, 100% would consider “full” so I was pointing out that your statement that ships don’t sail full is a bit misleading. Also, most ships have a max of about 120%, so for the math to work (granted we are talking about RCCL math) few times will the ships be below 100%. 

 

Biker, who sailed on Anthem in “low” season and the ship was at 99%. 

[HBE4]

21 hours ago, Biker19 said:

Price tend to go up until final payment in the US (typically 90 days) but then, if there's lots of vacancies, discounting starts. The biggest drops are usually 60-70 days out. By about 30 days out very little is left. The last RCCL SEC filling, listed a 108% occupancy rate (this varies across lines and ships).

 

So the rule is, book early....or book late....but not too late.  Good to know.

 

I tend to be a late booker.

[rt1092]

7 hours ago, BunnyHutt said:

Those in the travel industry can often get smokin’ hot deals using “Interline” rates on last minute cruises.... alas, my family doesn’t have that kind of flexibility. Someday, sigh. 

If you book with Royal using an interline price you better have proof you work or retired from the airlines. If not you will be paying brochure rates on boarding day. Or you will be denied boarding.

Seen this happen with some home based agencies. That don't educated their agents well.

[rt1092]

Plenty of good deals with group rates. But you have to shop around. Group rates are also (usually) refundable (until final payment date) deposits. But some agencies charge a cancellation or change fee.

[Biker19]

3 hours ago, HBE4 said:

So the rule is, book early....or book late....but not too late. 

For high demand itineraries (holidays, summer, TA via Iceland, in season Alaska, etc) booking early is the way to go, but for everything else, look at inventory levels over some period of time- those will usually dictate pricing. Use the RCI UK site, so when ever there's more than 50 cabins in a category (easy to tell, there's extras at the bottom of the list), the price in that category (or GTY) will likely go down.