Stock Benefit Question

[don't-use-real-name]

Market Closed at 34.74

Peaked at 37.09 mid-day

Started at 33.18 - - - WOW

 

Tomorrows another day

 

Todays activity

Norwegian Cruise Line Hldg L NCLH
34.74 Change Down -1.47(-4.06%)

NCLH 5-Minute
Previous Close

Open $35.07
High $37.09
Low $33.18
Prev. Close $36.21
Volume 10.50M
Shares Out 213.08M
Market Cap $7,402.47M
52-Wk High 01/17 $59.78
52-Wk Low 02/26 $36.16
Avg Volume 2.00M
P/E 8.08
EPS 4.30
Dividend 0.00
Yield 0.00
Ex Date N/A

 

xxxxxxxxxx

 

$34.74 - that is 35 cruises with $100 OBC

[HuliHuli]

11 hours ago, JamieLogical said:

 

If I purchase shares today or tomorrow, I won't have a statement yet, because those are only issued monthly and I am sailing on the 15th, so would need to get by form sent in my Sunday. Will a screenshot from my brokerage account work?

Jaimie: I agree with KarlChilders - a trade confirmation from whatever broker you use will suffice.  That's what I used my first time.  If you get close to your sailing date and have not seen the credit added to your account, call the corporate line in Miami; they issued the credit as I was speaking to them.

Edited February 28, 2020 by HuliHuli

[seemoreroyals]

NCLH up over $2 per share with about 45 minutes left to market close.  Encouraging on a day where market is down $650 and a week where market is down over $4000.  

[Travelicious]

Good time to buy!  Wish I had bought my 100 shares so low.

[mianmike]

33 minutes ago, Travelicious said:

Good time to buy!  Wish I had bought my 100 shares so low.

 

Is this the bottom or a "dead cat bounce"?  Only time will tell.

[fstuff1]

1 hour ago, seemoreroyals said:

NCLH up over $2 per share with about 45 minutes left to market close.  Encouraging on a day where market is down $650 and a week where market is down over $4000.  

I bought at $35/share yesterday.

and of course it drops to $33. :(

 

today it opens at $33 and now at $37!!!

printing $$$.. lol

[HuliHuli]

NCLH up 7% today and CCL up 5%.  I think it will still be a while before we fully recover, but thankfully I got some shares much cheaper this week than previously.

[fstuff1]

hm.. they fixed the double vision text but now i cant quote anyone.

anyway, i predict ncl stock will go down further.
now with the stock market tanking, people have less spending $ and/or dont want to spend.
fear (both corona virus on traveling and stock market crashing) has set in.

and my next buy order is $28/share. (20% drop from my last purchase at $35/share)

Edited February 29, 2020 by fstuff1

[fstuff1]

down to 34.50 again even though the market is up 650 points today

😞

[oteixeira]

Looking very meow thud to me.  Good call by @mianmike.  Still waiting until March 15th here, as I have stated, the traditional end of flu season in most parts of the world.  Good luck to all those holding, and remember this stock will rebound, because there will be a flu shot for this next year (just like swine, and all the other new ones).  

[julig22]

Jumped at $34 - so I have 100 to keep, 100 to sell in the future when the time is right.

[fstuff1]

ncl went down to $31.50 today :o

[DublinFC]

On 2/17/2020 at 5:40 PM, shof515 said:

 

100 shares gives you onboard credit

good to know

[oteixeira]

We are officially in the 20s, I think we can thank the case in California that cruised on the Grand Princess the second week of February.  Princess has now had both of the worst case cruise news stories during this outbreak.  I am guessing everyone on that ship that week and the next will need testing?

 

 

[fstuff1]

7 minutes ago, oteixeira said:

We are officially in the 20s, I think we can thank the case in California that cruised on the Grand Princess the second week of February.  Princess has now had both of the worst case cruise news stories during this outbreak.  I am guessing everyone on that ship that week and the next will need testing?

 

$29.56

 

i bought at $35. i'm buying more at $28 then more at $22.

basically dollar cost avg every 20% drop

[ziggyuk]

Yeah, I just bought at $29.66.

[CroozFanatic]

Best of luck...it's hard to catch a falling knife!

[CroozFanatic]

I actually think the 10-year US Treasury at 0.92% is a steal....bought some last week.

[Regguy]

26 minutes ago, CroozFanatic said:

Best of luck...it's hard to catch a falling knife!

Yeah.  Though, NCL stock is getting close to a point where it looks as though the market may be pricing in a non-zero chance of a bankruptcy or other wipe out event.  If you believe that bankruptcy is zero percent chance then the stock may well be hitting bargain territory.

 

I guess if you really have money to lose and are wishing to use the markets to place a bet on the virus being not that bad, there are so many better places to make that bet right now than cruise stocks.

Edited March 5, 2020 by Regguy

[P_Mcruisers]

I hope NCL is buying back its shares. Looks like a good opportunity for them. As well as the Other Cruise lines.

[seemoreroyals]

I am tempted to buy in to average down on my initial 100 shares.  However I would also like to wait and see what goes on over the weekend when the ceos from the cruise companies meet with our fearless leaders in Wahington.  Sure does not seem like it can go much lower than $28 unless government gets involved and puts some serious constraints on the cruise industry.  The virus itself sure seems like a mutated strand of the flu which we both do not know enough about yet and we do not and will not have a vaccine for for at least a year.  

[Regguy]

16 minutes ago, seemoreroyals said:

Sure does not seem like it can go much lower than $28 

 

I can think of a number about 28 dollars lower than 28 to which it can go.  (Hint -- it is a non positive and non negative integer.)

 

Either you believe that markets are efficient or you don't.  If you believe that they are efficient then you believe that the current number takes into account the best available information at the moment and is priced at a value that reflects all possible future values along the spectrum.  If you believe that markets are not efficient and that you have valuable insights that are able to allow you to place a bet on the house side of an inefficiency, they you stand to make a lot of money.  (Spoiler:  I don't believe in market timing as an effective strategy for regular people, but I know that people do.)

 

Here's my question though:  Even if you fall in the later category and you are willing to make bets that are based on a virus with a lot of unknowns, and you have money to put in the markets right now, aren't there far better choices to make that bet than cruise lines on March 5, 2020?  

 

This is not investment advice and I am not an investment advisor and if asked "what other bets" I'm not comfortable giving an answer.  NCL could surely be trading at $50 in a month.  All I'm saying is to take a minute before deciding that stocks in cruise lines cannot go lower.  They most certainly can.  If you have the money to lose and are strictly a long term investor and you know enough about about yourself that you are not going to panic sell if you see your stock go down 50 percent, and it's a bet you want to make, you may end up doing very well.  Just be very careful in times of volatility with money you can't afford to lose or are counting on in retirement, etc.

Edited March 5, 2020 by Regguy

[seemoreroyals]

6 minutes ago, Regguy said:

 

I can think of a number about 28 dollars lower than 28 to which it can go.  (Hint -- it is a non positive and non negative integer.)

 

Either you believe that markets are efficient or you don't.  If you believe that they are efficient then you believe that the current number takes into account the best available information at the moment and is priced at a value that reflects all possible future values along the spectrum.  If you believe that markets are not efficient and that you have valuable insights that are able to allow you to place a bet on the house side of an inefficiency, they you stand to make a lot of money.  (Spoiler:  I don't believe in market timing as an effective strategy for regular people, but I know that people do.)

 

Here's my question though:  Even if you fall in the later category and you are willing to make bets that are based on a virus with a lot of unknowns, and you have money to put in the markets right now, aren't there far better choices to make that bet than cruise lines on March 5, 2020?  

 

This is not investment advice and I am not an investment advisor and if asked "what other bets" I'm not comfortable giving an answer.  NCL could surely be trading at $50 in a month.  All I'm saying is to take a minute before deciding that stocks in cruise lines cannot go lower.  They most certainly can.  If you have the money to lose and are strictly a long term investor and you know enough about about yourself that you are not going to panic sell if you see your stock go down 50 percent, and it's a bet you want to make, you may end up doing very well.  Just be very careful in times of volatility with money you can't afford to lose or are counting on in retirement, etc.

 

If you have been following my posts within this thread instead of looking at just one sentence within one post you can see where I am in no rush to buy more shares.  I have been investing in the stock market for over 30 years and during this time I have learned what type of effect fear has on the stock market.  I have learned from others such as Warren Buffett that the time to buy is when others are fearful.  Is the stock going lower than $28?  I have no idea as I do not own a crystal ball but I can tell you that the odds of it going back over $50 a share are far greater than it going to zero.  

 

[Regguy]

10 minutes ago, seemoreroyals said:

 

I can tell you that the odds of it going back over $50 a share are far greater than it going to zero.  

 

 

Sounds like easy money to me, then.  Good luck!!

Edited March 5, 2020 by Regguy

[TifffanyD]

I bought back in at 29.50. I had originally set my limit at 30, then 28, and settled finally at 29.50. I originally bought in 3Q 2018 at 46 and sold this Jan for 58... so I am already a bit ahead. Here's hoping!