RCL Stock

[Biker19]

RCCL posted this with the SEC on Friday:

 

On December 22, 2023, we entered into a credit agreement for the financing of Celebrity Xcel, the fifth Edge-class ship for Celebrity Cruises which is scheduled for delivery in the fourth quarter of 2025. The credit agreement makes available to Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd., upon acceptance and delivery of the ship, an US dollar-denominated term loan guaranteed 100% by BpiFrance Assurance Export, the official export credit agency of France. The loan, once assigned to us upon delivery of the ship, will amortize semi-annually and will mature twelve years thereafter. Interest on the loan is expected to accrue at a floating rate of Term SOFR plus 1.45%. 

Inline XBRL Viewer (sec.gov)

[grandgeezer]

2 hours ago, Biker19 said:

RCCL posted this with the SEC on Friday:

 

On December 22, 2023, we entered into a credit agreement for the financing of Celebrity Xcel, the fifth Edge-class ship for Celebrity Cruises which is scheduled for delivery in the fourth quarter of 2025. The credit agreement makes available to Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd., upon acceptance and delivery of the ship, an US dollar-denominated term loan guaranteed 100% by BpiFrance Assurance Export, the official export credit agency of France. The loan, once assigned to us upon delivery of the ship, will amortize semi-annually and will mature twelve years thereafter. Interest on the loan is expected to accrue at a floating rate of Term SOFR plus 1.45%. 

Inline XBRL Viewer (sec.gov)

The current SOFR rate is approximately 5.34% which would make the loan rate of 6.8% if it happened now. God knows what it will be in 2025 though. This will be new debt added to the total balance at the time. If there ever is a dividend paid again, it will be several years down the road and it will be much less than the $3.16, per share that it paid before.

I played this game about 30+ years ago when a company stopped the dividend and restarted paying it when the got solvent again after several years. 

[Blizzard54]

As I recall some of the debt they took on with the shutdown requires them to suspend dividends until it is paid off.  Taking on new long-term debt for new construction will help get them back to what was once normal.  

[Baron Barracuda]

IMO believe reinstating dividend at this time would be a poor use of cash.  Priority #1, #2 and #3 needs to remain improving the balance sheet.  Was very impressed with CCL's recent earnings report which showed they have reduced  LTD 10% i($4.6B) in 2023.  For RCL reducing leverage will lead to debt ratings upgrades and lower borrowing costs.

[grandgeezer]

1 hour ago, Blizzard54 said:

As I recall some of the debt they took on with the shutdown requires them to suspend dividends until it is paid off.  Taking on new long-term debt for new construction will help get them back to what was once normal.  

Please explain, I don’t understand that taking on more debt is a good thing.

[firefly333]

12 minutes ago, grandgeezer said:

Please explain, I don’t understand that taking on more debt is a good thing.

I'm not sure but the way I read it was the key word was NEW debt. Which would have different conditions. Perhaps wouldn't say cant pay dividends until paid off or whatever terms they borrowed under the older debt getting paid off. 

 

Cant believe how strong the stock has been. Since I got off harmony only one day it didnt set a new high since covid. ..today might be the 2nd time. 

[grandgeezer]

1 hour ago, firefly333 said:

I'm not sure but the way I read it was the key word was NEW debt. Which would have different conditions. Perhaps wouldn't say cant pay dividends until paid off or whatever terms they borrowed under the older debt getting paid off. 

 

Cant believe how strong the stock has been. Since I got off harmony only one day it didnt set a new high since covid. ..today might be the 2nd time. 

About can’t pay dividends until the debt is paid, doesn’t sound right, if you are making your payments on time, who are they to say what you do with the rest of your money?

Debt is debt no mater if it’s new or old. I have heard, the more debt you take on will come at a higher interest rate, if you can get it at all. I wouldn’t know for a fact, we’ve paid no interest on anything since 1984, and have a credit score of 807.

 

[firefly333]

The rise to almost 130 was death defying. It was back on traders radar. Low float, moves easily. Even I was wondering friday about shorting so must have been obvious.  121.46 low of the day.

 

Will this be a one day event or January a sell off month. Fascinating to watch rcl trade. 

 

 

[Baron Barracuda]

1 hour ago, firefly333 said:

The rise to almost 130 was death defying. It was back on traders radar. Low float, moves easily. Even I was wondering friday about shorting so must have been obvious.  121.46 low of the day.

 

Will this be a one day event or January a sell off month. Fascinating to watch rcl trade. 

 

 

Today's drop isn't RCL specific.  Most of last year's big winners are getting hit hard.  Money managers love to have their 12/31 portfolio reports show they own all the big winners for the year.  Then the calendar turns to January and they reposition into those they believe will work best in '24

 

[firefly333]

3 minutes ago, Baron Barracuda said:

 

While it might not be specific to rcl, rcl is getting hit so hard its among the top 5 being mentioned as being down. Ccl too. Yes they say rise in interest rates triggering rate sensitive stocks sell off. 

 

Those touting and wishing and hoping the fed cuts by march are quiet today and those saying no rate cuts before next june today.  The optimism of last week is reigned in. 

 

As a trader, looking for a new entry, I'm looking to see if rcl can hold 120 or goes lower. I think earnings feb 5 so it will find support, a bottom, support before next earnings. Buyers arent stepping up, just nervous sellers. Tomorrow will be important chart wise. Today it's just a falling knife. 

[Ocean Boy]

1 hour ago, firefly333 said:

The rise to almost 130 was death defying. It was back on traders radar. Low float, moves easily. Even I was wondering friday about shorting so must have been obvious.  121.46 low of the day.

 

Will this be a one day event or January a sell off month. Fascinating to watch rcl trade. 

 

 

I checked this morning before the markets opened. I had not checked in awhile and my first thought was... is this for real?

[grandgeezer]

2 hours ago, firefly333 said:

While it might not be specific to rcl, rcl is getting hit so hard its among the top 5 being mentioned as being down. Ccl too. Yes they say rise in interest rates triggering rate sensitive stocks sell off. 

 

Those touting and wishing and hoping the fed cuts by march are quiet today and those saying no rate cuts before next june today.  The optimism of last week is reigned in. 

 

As a trader, looking for a new entry, I'm looking to see if rcl can hold 120 or goes lower. I think earnings feb 5 so it will find support, a bottom, support before next earnings. Buyers arent stepping up, just nervous sellers. Tomorrow will be important chart wise. Today it's just a falling knife. 

Today’s volume is up over 50% over the daily average. If there aren’t many buyers stepping up, 

that’s shows how confident they are in the current price going up anything significant.

[firefly333]

9 minutes ago, grandgeezer said:

Today’s volume is up over 50% over the daily average. If there aren’t many buyers stepping up, 

that’s shows how confident they are in the current price going up anything significant.

Might be a dead cat bounce at open tomorrow. I'm betting lots shorted today. Might be short covering if the main downside is over. .. nothing I'd buy into. I couldn't believe how fast it could sell off today.  Agree on no news specific to rcl. Tomorrow will be extra interesting. 

Edited January 2 by firefly333

[firefly333]

Thursday, rcl ceo is supposed to be interviewed during "last call". I listen to last call so I'm probably going to hear him but if anyone else might want to hear what he has to say. It's on at 6 pm texas time but check your own time zone. Show is called Last Call. 

[firefly333]

Fed minutes from December will be read at 2 pm eastern. Could affect market. Rcl at least seems to have stopped the slide straight down like yesterday. Waiting to see if it can hold. Last time sold down below 80, found buyers and went right back up. Just shaking the loose hands. 

[DaKahuna]

5 hours ago, firefly333 said:

Fed minutes from December will be read at 2 pm eastern. Could affect market. Rcl at least seems to have stopped the slide straight down like yesterday. Waiting to see if it can hold. Last time sold down below 80, found buyers and went right back up. Just shaking the loose hands. 

 

 Currently down $2.69,  which is better than the $9 drop yesterday but so far this week has not been kind to RCL. 

 

 

[livingonthebeach]

Earnings come out today before the market opens. Expectations for Q4 are $1.14 a share. Will PPS be better than that? I hope so! The stock has more than doubled in 2023 and just recently hit an all-time high. Watching and waiting to see if RCL makes some waves today. Stay tuned....

[livingonthebeach]

The earnings call scheduled for today @10:00am will be available as a live webcast - this is an in-depth report as opposed to the earnings announcement scheduled before markets open today. 

Registration for the webcast can be found here:

 

https://www.rclinvestor.com/webcasts-presentations/#heading-2

 

Too late to edit above post but should read EPS (earnings per share) and not PPS (price per share). 

 

Let's hope it's a good report!!!

 

Edited February 1 by livingonthebeach

[firefly333]

There are several attached articles on earnings this morning. Premarket 132 ish so far. 

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RCL?p=RCL&.tsrc=fin-srch

 

 

[Engineroom Snipe]

Jason Liberty was just interviewed on CNBC.

 

Record bookings, blockbuster numbers for 2023 and into 2024.

 

The cruise discount to land experience percentage used to be 45% (his words, not mine).

 

Royal has shaved 15% off of the difference since the reopening.

 

He seemed to suggest that things were going in a very positive direction (and maybe trying to get the 30% current difference lower).

 

Does not look like prices for the average Royal cruiser will be coming down.

 

Stated a "30,30,30" split on typical passengers.

 

30% new to cruising. Specifically mentioned that younger cruisers are desiring new experiences.

 

30% new to Royal that cruised on other brands. Specifically mentioned that new cruisers from other brands are 5x more likely to stay with Royal after sailing with them.

 

30% long time repeat Royal cruisers.

 

He did not seem to think their bookings would be affected by a slowing economy as their customers are now more diverse and more affluent in general. He also mentioned the generational transfer of wealth which will assist future bookings.

 

Interesting interview.

 

 

 

[firefly333]

1 minute ago, Engineroom Snipe said:

Jason Liberty was just interviewed on CNBC.

 

Record bookings, blockbuster numbers for 2023 and into 2024.

 

The cruise discount to land experience percentage used to be 45% (his words, not mine).

 

Royal has shaved 15% off of the difference since the reopening.

 

He seemed to suggest that things were going in a very positive direction (and maybe trying to get the 30% current difference lower).

 

Does not look like prices for the average Royal cruiser will be coming down.

 

Stated a "30,30,30" split on typical passengers.

 

30% new to cruising. Specifically mentioned that younger cruisers are desiring new experiences.

 

30% new to Royal that cruised on other brands. Specifically mentioned that new cruisers from other brands are 5x more likely to stay with Royal after sailing with them.

 

30% long time repeat Royal cruisers.

 

He did not seem to think their bookings would be affected by a slowing economy as their customers are now more diverse and more affluent in general. He also mentioned the generational transfer of wealth which will assist future bookings.

 

Interesting interview.

 

 

 

I saw the interview. They also asked him about suez canal how it would affect rcl.

 

Still kinda surprised its selling off. He seemed to say less impact than carnival who warned it would impact earnings.

[Engineroom Snipe]

9 minutes ago, firefly333 said:

I saw the interview. They also asked him about suez canal how it would affect rcl.

 

Still kinda surprised its selling off. He seemed to say less impact than carnival who warned it would impact earnings.

Yes, he mentioned Royal only had some of "their smaller ships" affected by the situation.

Edited February 1 by Engineroom Snipe
grammer

[nelblu]

1 hour ago, firefly333 said:

I saw the interview. They also asked him about suez canal how it would affect rcl.

 

Still kinda surprised its selling off. He seemed to say less impact than carnival who warned it would impact earnings.

Could be simply profit taking.

[grandgeezer]

9 minutes ago, nelblu said:

Could be simply profit taking.

Why today, on the day they revealed their earnings report, just a coincidence? I think not, 81% of the stock is held by institutional investors and they do it to make money. If they were so enamored with the report they would have did nothing or increased their holdings. 

[Engineroom Snipe]

22 minutes ago, grandgeezer said:

Why today, on the day they revealed their earnings report, just a coincidence? I think not, 81% of the stock is held by institutional investors and they do it to make money. If they were so enamored with the report they would have did nothing or increased their holdings. 

Yes, if one were to believe the interview information on face-value, I would take it as a "hold" on the stock that things were definitely getting better if not slightly "buy".

 

I do not hold stock in Royal but I do have a significant amount of investments.

 

Not quite sure why the institutional investors would be selling off unless there are other numbers that contradict the interview information which to me seemed very positive.