RCL Stock

[CTCruiser76]

Sold 25 shares today as well. 

[firefly333]

If I'd been extra smart I would have sold short. Not just sold my few shares. No way this stock was worth over $100 a share. Earnings will have to be blow out. 

 

I do think rcl is pushing the pricing button harder and harder. So earnings will be good but not good enough for the $100 valuation.

 

I hardly think to sell short even when it's obvious a stock is about to sell off.

[livingonthebeach]

Not saying this will continue but shares of Royal Caribbean have outperformed the industry in the past three months. There is solid pent-up demand. RCL expects adjusted EPS to be $4.40-$4.80, up from the prior stated $3-$3.60. Earnings estimates for 2023 have moved north in the past 30 days, in line with analysts’ optimism regarding the stock’s growth potential.

Over the past four weeks, shares have rallied 20.31%, and there have been 7 higher earnings estimate revisions in the past two months for fiscal 2023.

I will continue to be bullish on this stock and will hang on to my shares even if there is a slight dip. It's worth it if only for the OBC. JMTCW

[ink76]

12 minutes ago, livingonthebeach said:

Not saying this will continue but shares of Royal Caribbean have outperformed the industry in the past three months. There is solid pent-up demand. RCL expects adjusted EPS to be $4.40-$4.80, up from the prior stated $3-$3.60. Earnings estimates for 2023 have moved north in the past 30 days, in line with analysts’ optimism regarding the stock’s growth potential.

Over the past four weeks, shares have rallied 20.31%, and there have been 7 higher earnings estimate revisions in the past two months for fiscal 2023.

I will continue to be bullish on this stock and will hang on to my shares even if there is a slight dip. It's worth it if only for the OBC. JMTCW

The trend on RCL is up up if anybody that has cruise in the last 45 days can see that, don't watch the day to day moved on this stock stand back look at it. Earning come out later this month they should be good watch to see if insider are buyer that would be a good sign also.

[livingonthebeach]

32 minutes ago, ink76 said:

The trend on RCL is up up if anybody that has cruise in the last 45 days can see that, don't watch the day to day moved on this stock stand back look at it. Earning come out later this month they should be good watch to see if insider are buyer that would be a good sign also.

 

Agreed. The stock was trading at around $120 before Covid -- there's no reason why it can't go to that level or higher even with the debt repayments. People are willing to pay the higher prices to get back to cruising and that is helping the stock price. Travel stocks in general have gone up considerably in the past few months. 

[topnole]

1 hour ago, livingonthebeach said:

 

Agreed. The stock was trading at around $120 before Covid -- there's no reason why it can't go to that level or higher even with the debt repayments. People are willing to pay the higher prices to get back to cruising and that is helping the stock price. Travel stocks in general have gone up considerably in the past few months. 

There are many reasons it might not go higher.  The debt being a big one, but clearly many macro and company specific variables impact how the market prices a stock.  But if/when the economy slows and we go into the next recession, these high cruise prices will be minimized and their margins could tank (they can’t exactly lower their debt costs in an inflationary period as interest rates are going up). Then watch what happens to the stock price.  
 

Of course it could go higher too off and on. But the fundamentals don’t look great to me and ultimately the fundamentals will dictate the long run stock price.  I could easily see Royal trading at half its current value in the somewhat near term.  

Edited July 6, 2023 by topnole

[firefly333]

57 minutes ago, livingonthebeach said:

 

Agreed. The stock was trading at around $120 before Covid -- there's no reason why it can't go to that level or higher even with the debt repayments. People are willing to pay the higher prices to get back to cruising and that is helping the stock price. Travel stocks in general have gone up considerably in the past few months. 

I havent followed rcl as closely as carnival. I know carnival issued so many secondary shares they diluted shares almost double. So a share has to make double the profit to be worth the price. Of course neither rcl or ccl turn a profit.

 

With the dilution of shares from issuing more shares, each share is worth less than before. I'm sure someone else follows rcl more closely and knows if they seriously diluted shares. Ccl seriously diluted shares with secondary after secondary. Its not just borrowing that made the stock worth less. Secondaries! 

 

I am bullish on rcl, just think the price got ahead of itself. We all value stocks differently. With prices so high it's got to help the stock value. Agree earnings will be interesting. FOMO, fear of missing out has taken over the stock market .. this could be a boring or not bullish summer. I also dont believe the market is taking Powell seriously enough. He would say rates higher for longer, and some dumb bank talking head says he predicts fed will cut rates this year or some nonsense. I'm in the camp inflation is sticky. More hikes ahead, not cuts. Room for bulls and bears here. 10 year treasury moved up today, people are starting to price in higher rates. 

[Baron Barracuda]

In 2019 RCL enjoyed their best ever financial performance and Fain was promising double digit earnings growth for well into the future.  They had just turned $11B in revenue into a $1.9B profit or $8.95 per share.  Debt was a manageable $11B (annual interest expense $400MM)  vs $12.2B in stockholders equity (209MM shares outstanding).  For their past performance and future expectations the market rewarded RCL with a 12/31/19 stock price of $133.

 

Thanks to covid RCL hasn't turned a quarterly profit since.  In the first quarter of 2023 (all quarterly numbers multiplied by 4 to compare vs full year 2019) despite an annualized revenue of $12B they turned in an annualized net loss of $220MM.  Interest expense is running at an annualized $1.4B.  The debt burden will grow several $B higher later this year after taking delivery of Icon of the Seas, Celebrity Ascent and Silver Nova.  Stockholders equity is down to $3B (255MM shares outstanding).  It will take many years to get earnings and the balance sheet back to 2019 levels so why is this stock trading at $100?  2q earnings had better be spectacular.

Edited July 6, 2023 by Baron Barracuda

[livingonthebeach]

1 minute ago, Baron Barracuda said:

In 2019 RCL enjoyed their best ever financial performance and Fain was promising double digit earnings growth for well into the future.  They had just turned $11B in revenue into a $1.9B profit which came to and eps of $8.95.  Debt was a manageable $11B (annual interest expense $400MM)  vs $12.2B in stockholders equity (209MM shares outstanding).  For their past performance and future expectations the market rewarded RCL with a 12/31/19 stock price of $133.

 

Thanks to covid RCL hasn't turned a quarterly profit since.  In the first quarter of 2023 (all quarterly numbers multiplied by 4 to compare vs full year 2019) despite an annualized revenue of $12B they turned in an annualized net loss of $220MM.  Interest expense is running at an annualized $1.4B.  The debt burden will grow several $B higher later this year after taking delivery of Icon of the Seas, Celebrity Ascent and Silver Nova.  Stockholders equity is down to $3B (255MM shares outstanding).  It will take many years to get earnings and the balance sheet back to 2019 levels so why is this stock trading at $100?  2q earnings had better be spectacular.

 

When Delta Airlines' CEO Ed Bastian made the prediction that it would be Delta's historic highest 2nd quarter earnings, most transportation and travel and leisure stocks went way up. The stocks that were riding the climb off of Delta might go down if Delta doesn't deliver.  Personally, I bought RCL with the OBC in mind. It won't bother me if the stock dips from time to time as long as I'm using it for OBC. 

[topnole]

1 hour ago, livingonthebeach said:

 

When Delta Airlines' CEO Ed Bastian made the prediction that it would be Delta's historic highest 2nd quarter earnings, most transportation and travel and leisure stocks went way up. The stocks that were riding the climb off of Delta might go down if Delta doesn't deliver.  Personally, I bought RCL with the OBC in mind. It won't bother me if the stock dips from time to time as long as I'm using it for OBC. 

If you cruise enough it can make it worth it.  But owning 5 figures in stock to get $100 obc here and there isn’t a great strategy.   Basically the obc is like a tax free dividend.  You have to determine how much downside risk to assume to want that dividend.  I’d rather be in a growth stock and not in a company that is losing money and loaded to their ears in debt.  But we all have our own preference and financial strategies.  To me royal is not a good long term buy relative to other companies and if you buy it for obc, you need to be a long term buyer. 

[firefly333]

5 minutes ago, topnole said:

If you cruise enough it can make it worth it.  But owning 5 figures in stock to get $100 obc here and there isn’t a great strategy.   Basically the obc is like a tax free dividend.  You have to determine how much downside risk to assume to want that dividend.  I’d rather be in a growth stock and not in a company that is losing money and loaded to their ears in debt.  But we all have our own preference and financial strategies.  To me royal is not a good long term buy relative to other companies and if you buy it for obc, you need to be a long term buyer. 

I think it's worth holding 100 shares of for the obc. I know I've gotten 8 x $100 in a year, so for me and probably others it's worth holding who cruise a lot. 

 

I've traded in and out and in and out twice since covid and made $$$ each time. I'm out right now betting for a lower entry and play it again sam! I'm with your thinking mostly. Got s little too high. 

[topnole]

59 minutes ago, firefly333 said:

I think it's worth holding 100 shares of for the obc. I know I've gotten 8 x $100 in a year, so for me and probably others it's worth holding who cruise a lot. 

 

I've traded in and out and in and out twice since covid and made $$$ each time. I'm out right now betting for a lower entry and play it again sam! I'm with your thinking mostly. Got s little too high. 

Yeah. Trading is certainly different than investing.   But if you get 800 in OBC, you’re certainly getting a good return no matter as long as they keep the OBC deal.  But people buying over 10k in stock to get $100 once or twice a year, well they shouldn’t be buying for that reason alone.  

[Morecruisesplz]

1 hour ago, topnole said:

If you cruise enough it can make it worth it.  But owning 5 figures in stock to get $100 obc here and there isn’t a great strategy.   Basically the obc is like a tax free dividend.  You have to determine how much downside risk to assume to want that dividend.  I’d rather be in a growth stock and not in a company that is losing money and loaded to their ears in debt.  But we all have our own preference and financial strategies.  To me royal is not a good long term buy relative to other companies and if you buy it for obc, you need to be a long term buyer. 

9 Royal cruises booked, so owning the stock is a no brainer. AND when Covid hit I bought at $25 then sold at $52 after Covid. Are any of your growth stocks doubling your money.

[topnole]

Just now, fredmdcruisers said:

9 Royal cruises booked, so owning the stock is a no brainer. AND when Covid hit I bought at $25 then sold at $52 after Covid. Are any of your growth stocks doubling your money.

I had several that did the same.  I have many stocks where I’m up 500% to well over 1000%.  I’m a long term investor though, not a short trader.  That is great you doubled your money, but you really missed out by selling it at 52.  You could’ve quadrupled your money.  That is the problem with trading versus long term investing.  You have to time things and get lucky and when you sell you can miss a lot of the gain.  I try to buy good stocks in favorable industries (growth). My annual returns have been great long run.  And I don’t have to watch things day by day or worry about guessing to time something.   

[Morecruisesplz]

10 minutes ago, topnole said:

I had several that did the same.  I have many stocks where I’m up 500% to well over 1000%.  I’m a long term investor though, not a short trader.  That is great you doubled your money, but you really missed out by selling it at 52.  You could’ve quadrupled your money.  That is the problem with trading versus long term investing.  You have to time things and get lucky and when you sell you can miss a lot of the gain.  I try to buy good stocks in favorable industries (growth). My annual returns have been great long run.  And I don’t have to watch things day by day or worry about guessing to time something.   

Guess I got lucky! I bought again at $30 and last time I looked it was about $100. Like I said before, $900+ in OBC on a $3000 stock buy is a no brainer. I don't know anyone who buys $10000 worth of stock for the OBC.

[Biker19]

15 minutes ago, fredmdcruisers said:

I don't know anyone who buys $10000 worth of stock for the OBC.

You only need to own it for a day and apply it to all the cruises booked - not much risk holding it for a day, especially if you pick the right day.

Edited July 6, 2023 by Biker19

[Morecruisesplz]

18 minutes ago, Biker19 said:

You only need to own it for a day and apply it to all the cruises booked - not much risk holding it for a day, especially if you pick the right day.

Yes sir, I remember you saying that before. When I kept going up, I thought why not take the ride!

[topnole]

20 minutes ago, fredmdcruisers said:

Guess I got lucky! I bought again at $30 and last time I looked it was about $100. Like I said before, $900+ in OBC on a $3000 stock buy is a no brainer. I don't know anyone who buys $10000 worth of stock for the OBC.

Even at 10,000, the obc could be worth it to frequent cruisers (8-10 a year).  That would be like a tax feee 8-10% dividend yield.  
 

Glad you are doing well with it.  Just not my style to short term trade for numerous different reasons.   But hats off to anyone who does well doing so.  It takes a lot of risk tolerance to dive in and

out like that and you have clearly reaped the rewards.  But for every you, there is someone else who timed it poorly.  
 

Many traders get in and out assuming a lot of energy, research, risk, and stress, when they would’ve done better just buying and holding for a while.  Different strokes for different folks.  
 

As far as Royal, I wouldn’t touch it as a long term investment.  I can see why folks trade it, because traders need volatility, but some are definitely getting burned.  

[grandgeezer]

1 hour ago, fredmdcruisers said:

9 Royal cruises booked, so owning the stock is a no brainer. AND when Covid hit I bought at $25 then sold at $52 after Covid. Are any of your growth stocks doubling your money.

Like my Economics professor said many years ago when one of my classmates made a comment 

 on someone he knows made a big killing on a stock. He said “Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn once in awhile.”

I have doubled my money several times on longer investments. My best short term investment was 48% in two weeks when United Airlines bought a regional airline I had just picked up. It amounted to about $6,000 after commissions.

I’ve been on the sidelines for several years since I had to take a minimum distribution from my IRA, which by the end of the year will be around $108k for the past two years. That’s a lot of obc.

[volk904]

I bought 100 shares at $36 for the credit.  Then it dropped to $33 and I bought another 120 shares because there was no reason it should be so low. I begged my brother and sister to do it but their advisors told them it had risk.  Very happy sitting at over 100 per share.  My only regrets is not buying more when it was $33.  

Edited July 7, 2023 by volk904

[firefly333]

Even if not officially support round numbers like 100 can be important support levels. I saw it go down to 100.10 this morning and bounced up, but this afternoon it couldnt hold. Broke below 100 so it's now going to be searching for new support levels. Where it closes will be important 

 

[BND]

We bought our shares solely for the OBC.  We only follow what it's doing out of curiosity.  We're meeting with our CFP in about 30 min and he sees the stock the same way we do.  We have other stocks in our IRA's that have been much more profitable.  

[cruisegirl1]

5 minutes ago, BND said:

We bought our shares solely for the OBC.  We only follow what it's doing out of curiosity.  We're meeting with our CFP in about 30 min and he sees the stock the same way we do.  We have other stocks in our IRA's that have been much more profitable.  

We did as well but at this point can book several full cruises with the profits we've taken.  

M

[WeMissSeaView]

7 hours ago, BND said:

We bought our shares solely for the OBC.  We only follow what it's doing out of curiosity.  We're meeting with our CFP in about 30 min and he sees the stock the same way we do.  We have other stocks in our IRA's that have been much more profitable.  

We did the exact same thing and bought  200 shares at $21.  When we explained the OBC to our financial advisor, he agreed it was a no brainer.  We sail a lot and by the end of this year we will have earned more OBC then the stock cost.

[firefly333]

I know most if not all who bought bought for the obc. 

 

Stocks are my thing, I've done stocks for 50 years. My posts when I called a sell were based on the charts. It was just for those who might be interested in making a little extra money. It is rare that you see a chart saying sell sell sell like it did last week hitting its highs. Today broke support and went lower. I dont know how it will act when earnings come out on the 27th. Ccl sold off when their debt was emphasized  .. I'm just watching it trade and the charts. Most people seem unable to think of rcl without emotion. ..just as another stock. 

 

Me I'll be watching to buy back and another entry. My posts are just about the charts. I'm for making extra money. I actually rarely buy and sell, but sometimes it's just so obvious. Of course I'm watching all my portfolio, but rcl was sticking out last week, hard not to post what I was seeing and hoping a few might benefit besides me. Stocks are how I support myself. It's not even a major position for me. Just was suddenly of interest chart wise.