Changes in Onboard Behavior & Procedures after Cruises restart sailing again...

[Toofarfromthesea]

1 hour ago, navybankerteacher said:

The real point is that there is too much still to learn —-  (“empirical” is an impressive term -  but it’s meaning has to reflect the size of the sample — the gathering of which is on-going) : the  ultimate extent of this round of infections,  whether re-infection can occur among previously infected, secondary symptoms which may emerge, the impact of pending loosening restrictions, the likelihood of a second round later this year —  to take too much comfort from what has been learned to date. 

 

Why is it I get the feeling you are more interested in making debating points rather than having an informative discussion?  And no, that is not what empirical means.  It means based on actual observation and experience rather than based on theory or reasoning.  Studies of people result in empirical results, as compared to results from, e.g., mathematical models.  The significance of empirical data, which is what you mistakenly think is part of what empirical data, depending on the circumstances, may be self evident or it may be assessed using statistical methods.  Empirical data can be statistically insignificant or it can be statistically significant.  Empirical is not an 'impressive' term, it is a precise term with a precise meaning.

In this case it doesn't take statistical analysis to realize that if theory, in the form of a mathematical model, says 185,000 and the empirical date, i.e, a bed count, says 2,000 then the empirical data is significant.  It is self evident.  Because this was an actual count, not just a statistical sampling.

I really wish you would stop poo-pooing things you don't understand to try to avoid the larger points.  You did it with the different types of tests, you did it with the meaning of order of magnitude, and now you've done it with the meaning of empirical.  Words have meanings.  Trying to undermine points you don't or won't counter by nitpicking the meaning of words isn't helpful and it becomes even more unhelpful when you don't really grasp the meaning of the words you are trying to nitpick. 

Because even if empirical meant exactly what you thought it did, the fact that the model predicted a <b>best case</b> of 185,000 hospitalizations while it turned out that there were actually only 2000 hospitalizations is hugely significant and seriously undermines the case for looking to the model for decision-making guidance.  Not to mention the fact that the hospital bed data has nothing to do with rates of re-infection, risks of relaxing restrictions or any of the other things you mention.  The significance has nothing to do with those things, it informs the (lack of) wisdom in relying on the prevalent mathematical model for planning and decision-making.  If you prepare for 185,000 hospitalizations but end up with 2000, then a lot of resources and energies have been wasted, when they could have been better utilized elsewhere.
 

[clo]

1 hour ago, Roz said:

 

This is true.  I'm 67 and work with a lot of people in their late 20s/early 30s.  A lot of them have diabetes, HBP, are allergic to peanuts, wheat, and milk, and overall are very sickly.  We Baby Boomers, on the other hand, are quite hearty even though we grew up eating bologna sandwiches on Wonder Bread spread with Miracle Whip.

I'm not going along with that. Our daughters and their husbands are in their early 40s. They eat probably healthier than we do. They run, they climb mountains, etc. And their friends are similar. And our young friends and neighbors are the same. Oops, I just looked and you live in Nashville. The South may not be the same as the West.

[navybankerteacher]

1 hour ago, Toofarfromthesea said:

...

Because even if empirical meant exactly what you thought it did, the fact that the model predicted a <b>best case</b> of 185,000 hospitalizations while it turned out that there were actually only 2000 hospitalizations is hugely significant and seriously undermines the case for looking to the model for decision-making guidance.  Not to mention the fact that the hospital bed data has nothing to do with rates of re-infection, risks of relaxing restrictions or any of the other things you mention.  The significance has nothing to do with those things, it informs the (lack of) wisdom in relying on the prevalent mathematical model for planning and decision-making.  If you prepare for 185,000 hospitalizations but end up with 2000, then a lot of resources and energies have been wasted, when they could have been better utilized elsewhere.
 

  Would you prefer having prepared for 2000 hospitalizations and winding up needing 185,000.?  

 

Empirical data is what it is - if it is based upon too small a sample it may be a factual representation of the sample which has been observed - but it is limited to what it is. We still do not know how things will play out — so perhaps it is better to not obsess about statistics  —- and prepare for the worst — much of which may still be coming

Edited April 24, 2020 by navybankerteacher

[navybankerteacher]

2 hours ago, clo said:

I would think that most of us in the 70+ group have some kind of "underlying" issue.

Everyone has “underlying issues”  - wear and tear if nothing else.  Still we 70+  people probably have better chances of making it to 90 than people now in their teens.

[clo]

1 minute ago, navybankerteacher said:

 Still we 70+  people probably have better chances of making it to 90 than people now in their teens.

Really? Why? Totally ignorant about that. I've already learned one new thing today. Heading to two?

[ldubs]

11 hours ago, Roger88 said:

I expect masks and gloves to be mandatory now. Also, I expect elderly people to go thorugh some checks a few day before boarding and moreover, this thing will be enforced on the governmental level. I only hope that a number of these limitations will be dismissed eventually. But this is the reality that awaits us right now 

 

Our county along with a handful of neighboring ones now mandate masks when outside.  Of course this is only while we deal with the pandemic.  Masks will not be a permanent legal requirement.  Though, I think a lot of folks may continue to use them in the future.     

[ldubs]

2 hours ago, Roz said:

 

This is true.  I'm 67 and work with a lot of people in their late 20s/early 30s.  A lot of them have diabetes, HBP, are allergic to peanuts, wheat, and milk, and overall are very sickly.  We Baby Boomers, on the other hand, are quite hearty even though we grew up eating bologna sandwiches on Wonder Bread spread with Miracle Whip.

 

I still do, except for wonder bread.  Didn't know I could still get that.   Wonder bread - "Builds strong bodes in 12 ways."  

[clo]

16 minutes ago, ldubs said:

outside

Really. Our 'recommendation' is for when in stores. Not outdoors. But also social distancing outside and in.

[ldubs]

9 minutes ago, clo said:

Really. Our 'recommendation' is for when in stores. Not outdoors. But also social distancing outside and in.

 

Outside of the house.  Must carry a mask and wear it if within proximity of people.   It is not a recommendation or suggestion.  It is a mandate subject to misdemeanor charges and a hefty fine.   It should be obvious that one is not needed and no one is going to be cited if they are outside and isolated or driving your car. 

 

So, yes really.   

Edited April 24, 2020 by ldubs

[navybankerteacher]

33 minutes ago, clo said:

Really? Why? Totally ignorant about that. I've already learned one new thing today. Heading to two?

Check Social Security or insurance industry mortality tables. Today’s 16 year old boy’s expectancy is about 60 years , a gilr’s is 65.  But today’s 70 year old man is looking at 84, and the woman at 86.   The fact is: the longer you have lived, the greater  age you are likely to reach.

[navybankerteacher]

15 minutes ago, ldubs said:

 

I still do, except for wonder bread.  Didn't know I could still get that.   Wonder bread - "Builds strong bodes in 12 ways."  

Actually, peanut butter and bacon sandwiches are a lot better for you than bologna and mayo - and are definitely worth the extra prep time.

[ldubs]

1 minute ago, navybankerteacher said:

Actually, peanut butter and bacon sandwiches are a lot better for you than bologna and mayo - and are definitely worth the extra prep time.

 

Been said before -- bacon goes with everything.   

 

Your fault; I'm going to have a BLT tomorrow.  

[ldubs]

7 minutes ago, navybankerteacher said:

Check Social Security or insurance industry mortality tables. Today’s 16 year old boy’s expectancy is about 60 years , a gilr’s is 65.  But today’s 70 year old man is looking at 84, and the woman at 86.   The fact is: the longer you have lived, the greater  age you are likely to reach.

 

Haha.  Of course.   The guy who passed away at 65 probably won't see 70.  😄

[clo]

11 minutes ago, navybankerteacher said:

Check Social Security or insurance industry mortality tables. Today’s 16 year old boy’s expectancy is about 60 years , a gilr’s is 65.  But today’s 70 year old man is looking at 84, and the woman at 86.   The fact is: the longer you have lived, the greater  age you are likely to reach.

Oh now that makes sense. Our adviser projects our money to last into our early 90s even though the actuarial tables say like you do. Just in case.

[navybankerteacher]

22 minutes ago, clo said:

Oh now that makes sense. Our adviser projects our money to last into our early 90s even though the actuarial tables say like you do. Just in case.

If you discipline yourself and only take out the RMD, you are virtually certain to leave something on the table for your children - even if you make it well past 100.

[clo]

8 minutes ago, navybankerteacher said:

If you discipline yourself and only take out the RMD, you are virtually certain to leave something on the table for your children - even if you make it well past 100.

We have no interest in leaving anything for the kids but since we don't have a crystal ball it may happen. We're anticipating a wonderful senior/assisted living place in Seattle that will cost in the very high five figures, probably six figures eventually. And we spend our money anticipating that. Making sure that THEY can't support US. We're lucky that they haven't cost us a dime since they finished undergrad school. Except for weddings where we gave them each a check, implicit to not come back to the well 🙂

 

[navybankerteacher]

1 minute ago, clo said:

We have no interest in leaving anything for the kids but since we don't have a crystal ball it may happen. We're anticipating a wonderful senior/assisted living place in Seattle that will cost in the very high five figures, probably six figures eventually. And we spend our money anticipating that. Making sure that THEY can't support US. We're lucky that they haven't cost us a dime since they finished undergrad school. Except for weddings where we gave them each a check, implicit to not come back to the well 🙂

 

My happy exit from the scenes of this life would involve a sudden departure - good health one day, gone the next.  Because the timing is impossible to fine tune, I am almost certain to leave something on the table. I sure do not want to run out and let my lot need to have the first thought of wanting to help me.  Are you thinking of carrying a poison pill to take the day your statement shows it’s all gone?

[clo]

3 minutes ago, navybankerteacher said:

My happy exit from the scenes of this life would involve a sudden departure - good health one day, gone the next.

You know that I respect you enormously but that's darn foolish. That's what you want but it may not happen. And I wouldn't exclude a "poison pill" but again there can be a big gap there. I think at least a million and better two. That's why we don't live as 'high' as some. That dang crystal ball 🙂  xoc

[navybankerteacher]

2 minutes ago, clo said:

You know that I respect you enormously but that's darn foolish. That's what you want but it may not happen. And I wouldn't exclude a "poison pill" but again there can be a big gap there. I think at least a million and better two. That's why we don't live as 'high' as some. That dang crystal ball 🙂  xoc

Of course I can’t count on good health one day and gone the next - so I need to allow for ongoing care  - which means that I cannot plan to spending the last penny, so I must assume the children will enjoy the leftovers.

[clo]

2 minutes ago, navybankerteacher said:

Of course I can’t count on good health one day and gone the next - so I need to allow for ongoing care  - which means that I cannot plan to spending the last penny, so I must assume the children will enjoy the leftovers.

Yep and good boy 🙂 Sleep well.

[geckoaz]

Best financial planning. Charge your last cruise and the check you wrote to.pay it off bounces after you die.

[ontheweb]

11 hours ago, Toofarfromthesea said:

 

Why is it I get the feeling you are more interested in making debating points rather than having an informative discussion?  And no, that is not what empirical means.  It means based on actual observation and experience rather than based on theory or reasoning.  Studies of people result in empirical results, as compared to results from, e.g., mathematical models.  The significance of empirical data, which is what you mistakenly think is part of what empirical data, depending on the circumstances, may be self evident or it may be assessed using statistical methods.  Empirical data can be statistically insignificant or it can be statistically significant.  Empirical is not an 'impressive' term, it is a precise term with a precise meaning.

In this case it doesn't take statistical analysis to realize that if theory, in the form of a mathematical model, says 185,000 and the empirical date, i.e, a bed count, says 2,000 then the empirical data is significant.  It is self evident.  Because this was an actual count, not just a statistical sampling.

I really wish you would stop poo-pooing things you don't understand to try to avoid the larger points.  You did it with the different types of tests, you did it with the meaning of order of magnitude, and now you've done it with the meaning of empirical.  Words have meanings.  Trying to undermine points you don't or won't counter by nitpicking the meaning of words isn't helpful and it becomes even more unhelpful when you don't really grasp the meaning of the words you are trying to nitpick. 

Because even if empirical meant exactly what you thought it did, the fact that the model predicted a <b>best case</b> of 185,000 hospitalizations while it turned out that there were actually only 2000 hospitalizations is hugely significant and seriously undermines the case for looking to the model for decision-making guidance.  Not to mention the fact that the hospital bed data has nothing to do with rates of re-infection, risks of relaxing restrictions or any of the other things you mention.  The significance has nothing to do with those things, it informs the (lack of) wisdom in relying on the prevalent mathematical model for planning and decision-making.  If you prepare for 185,000 hospitalizations but end up with 2000, then a lot of resources and energies have been wasted, when they could have been better utilized elsewhere.
 

Here is an example of how the effect of the coronavirus was way less than expected. and it is from NY City, the epicenter at the moment of the virus. A navy hospital ship was rushed there to take the overflow from the hospitals. It is now leaving because it has basically been empty of patients.

 

https://www.recordonline.com/zz/news/20200423/usns-comfort-to-leave-new-york-city-after-spending-three-weeks-mostly-empty-of-patients

[ilikeanswers]

1 hour ago, ontheweb said:

Here is an example of how the effect of the coronavirus was way less than expected. and it is from NY City, the epicenter at the moment of the virus. A navy hospital ship was rushed there to take the overflow from the hospitals. It is now leaving because it has basically been empty of patients.

 

https://www.recordonline.com/zz/news/20200423/usns-comfort-to-leave-new-york-city-after-spending-three-weeks-mostly-empty-of-patients

 

There are other reasons the Navy Ship was not utilised:

The 1,000-Bed Comfort Was Supposed to Aid New York. It Has 20 Patients.

[Toofarfromthesea]

14 hours ago, navybankerteacher said:

  Would you prefer having prepared for 2000 hospitalizations and winding up needing 185,000.?  

 

Empirical data is what it is - if it is based upon too small a sample it may be a factual representation of the sample which has been observed - but it is limited to what it is. We still do not know how things will play out — so perhaps it is better to not obsess about statistics  —- and prepare for the worst — much of which may still be coming

 

Still don't get it.  That was an actual enumeration, an actual measurement, not a sample.  Statistics are not involved, anymore than they are involved when you measure a piece of wood with a ruler.  And there is a cost for preparing for the worst, particularly when your model turns out to be this wrong (and if they prepared for their worst they would have been preparing for 465,000 hospital beds, the 185,000 was the BEST case under the model).  And the cost of preparing for such a bad estimate of the worst is that it creates a horrendous misallocation of limited resources.

[SRF]

On 4/23/2020 at 12:53 PM, navybankerteacher said:

But it is a choice which impacts others - anyone who fails to get immunized does not only put himself at risk, he also chooses to put others at risk as well — some of whom might have conditions which preclude their own immunization.   

 

Read about herd immunity.

 

But under your plan, those who cannot be immunized, cannot cruise.  As they cannot prove vaccination. 🙂