Will There Be Any Cruising At All In 2020?

[Comi.uy]

4 hours ago, graphicguy said:

My guess is that sailing near 50%-60% capacity might not net the kind of returns that they are used to, but it will generate revenue, which is what the new loans and aids that most cruise lines secured are probably predicated on....getting revenue flowing...showing the rest of those who might be ambivalent about cruising, that it's safe.

Doubt it'll generate any revenue, probably negative numbers. Only positive would be it'd be a good test ground and if all goes well a awesome green light for all the wary people.

[Sand and Seas]

19 minutes ago, Comi.uy said:

Doubt it'll generate any revenue, probably negative numbers. Only positive would be it'd be a good test ground and if all goes well a awesome green light for all the wary people.

Someone has to go on the first few cruises.  Then, if all goes well, others will feel more comfortable about going.

I think I'm going to feel more comfortable on a cruise ship with all of the employees cleaning everything than shopping in my local Walmart.    (Not saying that the Walmart employees aren't trying hard....it's some of the idiots that are shopping I worry about!)

Edited April 26, 2020 by Sand and Seas

[GlamorousGirl]

I have one scheduled for September and another November and I’m fairly confident both will sail. Things are already starting to open up again. There’s a lot of time left in 2020. 

[GlamorousGirl]

4 hours ago, Sand and Seas said:

Someone has to go on the first few cruises.  Then, if all goes well, others will feel more comfortable about going.

I think I'm going to feel more comfortable on a cruise ship with all of the employees cleaning everything than shopping in my local Walmart.    (Not saying that the Walmart employees aren't trying hard....it's some of the idiots that are shopping I worry about!)

Same here. I’d feel safer on the ship than my local grocery store. I’m willing to be one of the “guinea pigs” cruising first as long as I don’t have to fly, get a doctors note, or wear a mask the whole time

[vpearlkc]

13 hours ago, Sand and Seas said:

What you say makes sense.

 

From what I recall (could be wrong!) don't the newer/larger ships have single occupancy crew cabins?  

If so, it would make sense they would start cruising again with those ships.

 

I just looked at a video tour of a Breakaway crew cabin and it showed three beds. An upper and lower bunk and another single one. Only higher level crew members have private rooms.

[beerman2]

5 hours ago, GlamorousGirl said:

Same here. I’d feel safer on the ship than my local grocery store. I’m willing to be one of the “guinea pigs” cruising first as long as I don’t have to fly, get a doctors note, or wear a mask the whole time

Just curious IF masks are mandated  at all times ( other than to drink/eat) what is the solution. Do you not cruise or abide by the rules?

 

Can't imagine sitting by the pool , going to a show, or just walking around the ship with a mask on.

 

Do the cruise lines give you 1 warning ( scan you card), 2nd offense you are then quarantined the rest of the cruise?

 

 

[Georgia_Peaches]

11 minutes ago, beerman2 said:

Just curious IF masks are mandated  at all times ( other than to drink/eat) what is the solution. Do you not cruise or abide by the rules?

 

Can't imagine sitting by the pool , going to a show, or just walking around the ship with a mask on.

 

Do the cruise lines give you 1 warning ( scan you card), 2nd offense you are then quarantined the rest of the cruise?

 

 

If masks are mandated, I won't be cruising.  I get why many of us are wearing masks now (for the protection of others) but if masks are required in order to cruise, then, IMO it's too soon to start cruising.  

[GA Dave]

Just my humble opinion:  Until sports start happening in the USA with fans in attendance, cruising will not happen.  
The NFL is already working on a plan for the entire 2020 season being played in empty stadiums.  The NCAA has been working on a plan to “red shirt” all fall sports athletes like they already did for the spring athletes.  Until these activities return to normal, I just do not see cruising coming back.

[Crazy planning mom]

The NFL has to plan out the entire season.  The cruise industry has and can plan a couple months out.  I can see limited cruising on 3-4 day sailings out of Florida starting anytime between  August- January.  Noone really knows

[billfish]

1 hour ago, GA Dave said:

Just my humble opinion:  Until sports start happening in the USA with fans in attendance, cruising will not happen.  
The NFL is already working on a plan for the entire 2020 season being played in empty stadiums.  The NCAA has been working on a plan to “red shirt” all fall sports athletes like they already did for the spring athletes.  Until these activities return to normal, I just do not see cruising coming back.

 

I have been NFL season ticket holder for many years   Cannot see have having people in the Stands .   Just the problem of getting 60 to 80 thousand fans in the stadium is insane   Can't see it happening   I'm certainly not going to take the risk

[latserrof]

3 hours ago, beerman2 said:

Just curious IF masks are mandated  at all times ( other than to drink/eat) what is the solution. Do you not cruise or abide by the rules?

 

Can't imagine sitting by the pool , going to a show, or just walking around the ship with a mask on.

 

Do the cruise lines give you 1 warning ( scan you card), 2nd offense you are then quarantined the rest of the cruise?

 

 

If you have to wear a mask, shouldn't that tell you something? Like maybe there's danger?  And even if you're not concerned about the danger to yourself, shouldn't you be concerned about the danger of you spreading infection to others?

Edited April 26, 2020 by latserrof

[beerman2]

Just now, latserrof said:

If you have to wear a mask, shouldn't that tell you something? Like maybe there's danger?  And even if you're not concerned about the danger to yourself, shouldn't you be concerned about the danger of you spreading infection to others?

I agree however there are many that will cruise tomorrow if they could. 
And could/would they conform to wearing a mask IF the cruise lines say.

From what I saw at the grocery store this morning people don’t care. Many, Many more not wearing masks than those wearing.

[latserrof]

14 hours ago, Sand and Seas said:

Someone has to go on the first few cruises.  Then, if all goes well, others will feel more comfortable about going.

I think I'm going to feel more comfortable on a cruise ship with all of the employees cleaning everything than shopping in my local Walmart.    (Not saying that the Walmart employees aren't trying hard....it's some of the idiots that are shopping I worry about!)

Just because a few cruises go well doesn't mean subsequent ones will. Despite all the ridiculous band-aid improvements (more hand sanitizers!!!) the cruise lines are touting in order to appear like they are solving the problem, Covid-19 would eventually hit more ships until a real solution is found. 

 

And there are "Walmart shoppers" on every cruise, probably more on your first few cruises., should they ever happen.

Edited April 26, 2020 by latserrof

[Sand and Seas]

2 hours ago, latserrof said:

Just because a few cruises go well doesn't mean subsequent ones will. Despite all the ridiculous band-aid improvements (more hand sanitizers!!!) the cruise lines are touting in order to appear like they are solving the problem, Covid-19 would eventually hit more ships until a real solution is found. 

 

And there are "Walmart shoppers" on every cruise, probably more on your first few cruises., should they ever happen.

That's true.    Sooner or later something breaks out on a cruise ship and always has.   We have been lucky to never catch something like noro on the ships, but then we (DH & I ) have always been cautious about things like hand rails and avoid the buffet on ships prior to Covid.    I can select an elevator floor button with my elbow😉

 

It will make a huge change for all of us if cruising, theme parks and air travel for pleasure trips are permanently gone or diminished.

 

And I want to add, when I said Walmart I should have just said 'local store'.  I wasn't trying to make fun of 'Walmart Shoppers' as a group.  When I put on my mask and go shopping for food I see groups of people run into their acquaintances in the store and stop to talk while I am trying to find a way to safely move around them.  I could have also said groups of people that I see out my window in my own neighborhood that are failing to socially distant.   

Edited April 26, 2020 by Sand and Seas

[graphicguy]

10 hours ago, vpearlkc said:

 

I just looked at a video tour of a Breakaway crew cabin and it showed three beds. An upper and lower bunk and another single one. Only higher level crew members have private rooms.

I doubt that will be the case when they get these ships sailing again.

[graphicguy]

5 hours ago, latserrof said:

Just because a few cruises go well doesn't mean subsequent ones will. Despite all the ridiculous band-aid improvements (more hand sanitizers!!!) the cruise lines are touting in order to appear like they are solving the problem, Covid-19 would eventually hit more ships until a real solution is found. 

 

And there are "Walmart shoppers" on every cruise, probably more on your first few cruises., should they ever happen.

Ohhh...they’re changing the way they do business, not just hand sanitizing.  Those who are fearful (and I understand your reluctance) probably shouldn’t cruise, again.

 

Me?  I’m looking at an Alaska cruise for this coming October.

[old nutter]

For those thinking this thing might go away, here is a trusted voice spelling out the issues very well:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52182509

 

Not looking good.

[Laszlo]

Its over Johnny, its over for 2020. Here's my question, how the heck is Anyone going to social distance in any hallway. The Jewel class ships are not too bad, but good grief the away class ships have hallways that are so tight. The only way it would work is to make the hallways one way

[mugtech]

21 minutes ago, Laszlo said:

The only way it would work is to make the hallways one way

It would be very entertaining to observe such an event.

[vpearlkc]

1 hour ago, old nutter said:

For those thinking this thing might go away, here is a trusted voice spelling out the issues very well:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52182509

 

Not looking good.

 

Thanks. A great article. Since no government will help bail out the cruise lines there will be a lot of bankruptcies but the ships will still be there so cruising will continue, Maybe new companies with new names. There will be corporate raiders to pick the bones. Just my opinion. 

 

[Laszlo]

8 hours ago, billfish said:

 

I have been NFL season ticket holder for many years   Cannot see have having people in the Stands .   Just the problem of getting 60 to 80 thousand fans in the stadium is insane   Can't see it happening   I'm certainly not going to take the risk

Not going to work at least in Philly, have the people who go to events in the stadium complex (Phillies, Eagles & Flyers) take the bus or the subway. Thousands of people jammed into trains and busses is not happening for a long time

 

Just think about amount of people who normally walk around a ship and how close you are to them

[EscapeFromConnecticut]

29 minutes ago, vpearlkc said:

 

Thanks. A great article. Since no government will help bail out the cruise lines there will be a lot of bankruptcies but the ships will still be there so cruising will continue, Maybe new companies with new names. There will be corporate raiders to pick the bones. Just my opinion. 

 

 

My bet is that a lot of ships go into long-term parking, and a bunch more go to the scrappers beach. 

If this crisis were solely about the cruise industry, I could easily see a bunch of ships converted to floating hotels. But all

of the travel injury is hemorrhaging & will be for a while ... there just won't be enough market for more hotel rooms. 
 

The problems are that the high-volume, mass-market model won't work any more. Lots & lots fewer cruisers in the future ... and packing ships to 100% capacity isn't going to happen, either. 
 

 

[Comi.uy]

2 hours ago, old nutter said:

For those thinking this thing might go away, here is a trusted voice spelling out the issues very well:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52182509

 

Not looking good.

Did you read the entire article? things are not so bad

[graphicguy]

1 hour ago, vpearlkc said:

 

Thanks. A great article. Since no government will help bail out the cruise lines there will be a lot of bankruptcies but the ships will still be there so cruising will continue, Maybe new companies with new names. There will be corporate raiders to pick the bones. Just my opinion. 

 

 

The article was from a couple of weeks ago.  All the major cruise lines have secured loans/funding since then.  Does that mean there won’t be some consolidation or outright cruise line changes of ownership?  Probably not.  Maybe some multi-line cruise companies sell some of their brands.

[sanger727]

On 4/26/2020 at 2:31 AM, GlamorousGirl said:

I have one scheduled for September and another November and I’m fairly confident both will sail. Things are already starting to open up again. There’s a lot of time left in 2020. 

 

On 4/26/2020 at 2:34 AM, GlamorousGirl said:

Same here. I’d feel safer on the ship than my local grocery store. I’m willing to be one of the “guinea pigs” cruising first as long as I don’t have to fly, get a doctors note, or wear a mask the whole time

I think these two things are contradictory. Things are not opening up because the danger has passed. The danger will not ‘have passed’ until there’s a vaccine or herd immunity which is a long ways away (will not happen in 2020). Things are opening up because social distancing is working and based on the success of social distancing at the essential businesses that are open, they believe social distancing will continue to work as non-essential businessss re-open. 
 

my workplace had a perfect example. We stayed open because we are essential. We have many units spread out through several buildings. Early on one unit had someone catch the virus and it spread to 6 people in that unit. Once they saw they they really clamped down on social distancing policies (rule is no more than 2 people in any room at any time, everyone was given a mask through wearing them isn’t mandated, daily health screens) and while the occasional person has caught the virus on various units, there hasn’t been any more spread at work between employees.

 

until there’s a vaccine or herd immunity, this is our future. IF cruising comes back before that (and I think it will) social distancing will be the name of the game. Since it’s so hard to social distance in the tight spaces of the ship I do think that masks will be mandatory (at least indoors, in public spaces, while not eating or drinking). In bars and restaurants they will have to rely on lower capacity, spreading chairs apart, possibly staggered seating, etc. 

 

So yes, I think we willl see cruising in 2020,  but if you are planning on being on one of those cruises it’s going to come down to if cruising is worth putting up with the various new policies and restrictions.