Our projected coronavirus timeline...

[Stockjock]

I've worked for one of the major Wall Street firms for over 30 years.  Our biotech team put out this projected timeline.  Obviously, no one knows for sure what will happen, but I thought you might find it interesting.

My next cruise isn't until October 2020 (northern Europe), so we'll see if things have improved by then.

[Billy Baltic]

That’s an interesting model. Did they have one for global or the rest of world? It’s the global status that will likely determine international travel. 

[rtazz17]

I dont believe any models anymore. This has been a learn as you go situation. I could give an educated guess and make my own model... if im wrong then oh well. They all have been wrong

[Wildcatfish]

 

2 hours ago, RETNAVY1996 said:

Think that Wall Street firm needs to look again at the vaccine timeline.  Your not getting me to take something like that less than a year after the first test, and I would guess you would really have a problem getting health care workers doing it 6 months before that.

 

Healthcare workers may not have a choice if they wish to keep their job.  Unfortunately medicine is a big business.

[Sunshine3601]

I think the timeline needs to be adjusted as most states have begun phase 1 of reopening and more are starting in next week or two but this model shows wave 1 returning to work late june and wave 2 later in the summer.  

Also peak of new cases was in april for east coast epicenter not march.  

Not really sure this graph is helpful as there are inaccuracies.

[A&L_Ont]

22 minutes ago, Wildcatfish said:

Healthcare workers may not have a choice if they wish to keep their job.  Unfortunately medicine is a big business.

I know someone in LTC who refused a nose swab today, as it has been mandated by the province.  They were sent home without pay until they are tested, even though they are wearing PPE. 
 

Where I live those working in LTC facilities, as well as residents, are mandated to be tested. 

[ONECRUISER]

3 hours ago, RETNAVY1996 said:

Think that Wall Street firm needs to look again at the vaccine timeline.  Your not getting me to take something like that less than a year after the first test, and I would guess you would really have a problem getting health care workers doing it 6 months before that.

Speaking, left out the Graph was Military along with First Responder's will be at head of line for Vaccine. Know when I was in the ARMY received more then a few what was deemed Emergency/Experimental

Edited April 29, 2020 by ONECRUISER

[SRF]

There are reports of a vaccine being available before summer.

[A&L_Ont]

1 hour ago, SRF said:

There are reports of a vaccine being available before summer.

 

 

That would be amazing.  Front line medical, hospital, LTC and those that work there first.  Then first responders.  General public to follow.

[Tree_skier]

There isn't a single model that has been that hasn't been wildly in inaccurate.  I wouldn't believe a single one of them. Most decisions, going forward, have little to do with health and are mostly politically/ideologically driven. We'll cruise again when it suits all the governmental jurisdictions that have the ability to affect cruising deems it politically expedient that we can cruise. If decisions were being made based on what was best for the majority of people we'd be at work, going to restaurants and buying furniture.  People wouldn't be restricted from buying garden seed or getting $880 fines for taking your dog out into an empty parking lot, where no other people were, to take a pee.

Edited April 29, 2020 by Tree_skier

[Guest BigRoger]

Thank you very much for sharing this information... it’s very interesting to see a non political/ governmental perspective

[NHProud]

33 minutes ago, A&L_Ont said:

 

 

That would be amazing.  Front line medical, hospital, LTC and those that work there first.  Then first responders.  General public to follow.

There’s talk about a SARS vaccine being developed at Oxford that might be adapted for Covid-19.  Summer availability would be very early .  

[BND]

Oxford is currently doing human testing a vaccine that they say will be ready by September.   There are people volunteering to test it for the rest of us.

[BND]

2 hours ago, BigRoger said:

Thank you very much for sharing this information... it’s very interesting to see a non political/ governmental perspective

Funny.  Every organization has some bias.  

[Cruisin_n_Boozin]

2 hours ago, Tree_skier said:

 If decisions were being made based on what was best for the majority of people we'd be at work, going to restaurants and buying furniture.  

 

No doubt... All this stay at home and work from home has really left me itching to BUY FURNITURE....

[time4u2go]

25 minutes ago, BND said:

Oxford is currently doing human testing a vaccine that they say will be ready by September.   There are people volunteering to test it for the rest of us.

Good to hear.  I do have to wonder how long it would take to make 6 or 7 billion doses of it.

[BND]

4 minutes ago, time4u2go said:

Good to hear.  I do have to wonder how long it would take to make 6 or 7 billion doses of it.

What I've seen about it says multiple labs are geared up to start production quickly.  This won't be an issue of money grabbing pharmaceutical companies and patents, etc.  

 

I do know some people are concerned about a quickly produced vaccine, but this isn't completely new. It's based on prior research.

Edited April 29, 2020 by BND

[MommaBear55]

2 minutes ago, time4u2go said:

Good to hear.  I do have to wonder how long it would take to make 6 or 7 billion doses of it.

They make sufficient quantity of the Flu vaccine every year to vaccinate the 43% of Americans who take it. I would expect that everyone who wants a COVID 19 vaccine can get one within two years of the vaccine being available. The other question I have is how often will the vaccine be needed. When the first Pneumovax injection for adults came out the schedule and frequency recommendations changed several times.

[NHProud]

31 minutes ago, BND said:

What I've seen about it says multiple labs are geared up to start production quickly.  This won't be an issue of money grabbing pharmaceutical companies and patents, etc.  

 

I do know some people are concerned about a quickly produced vaccine, but this isn't completely new. It's based on prior research.

Oxford is combining Phase II and Phase III testing to speed the process along .  I would be very surprised if a private company was not financing Oxford’s research for a piece of the pie.   

[BND]

5 minutes ago, NHProud said:

Oxford is combining Phase II and Phase III testing to speed the process along .  I would be very surprised if a private company was not financing Oxford’s research for a piece of the pie.   

I didn't mean someone wasn't funding it, but it's not the same as the over priced pharmaceuticals that are owned outright by one company and cost an arm and a leg.  There are multiple ongoing research and trials and in order to have enough available quickly, no one company will benefit solely.  It's an international project.  I have no issue with these companies recouping their costs and a profit.

Edited April 29, 2020 by BND

[Stockjock]

5 hours ago, SRF said:

There are reports of a vaccine being available before summer.

I think it’s highly unlikely that there will be a vaccine that is both available to the general public and approved before the summer. Remember, I didn’t say there won’t be one, I said that the public won’t get it for sometime in all likelihood.

Edited April 29, 2020 by Stockjock

[BND]

Just now, Stockjock said:

I think it’s highly unlikely that there will be a vaccine that is both available to the general public and approved before the summer. Remember, I didn’t say there won’t be one, I said that the public won’t get it for sometime in all likelihood.

In all likelihood it will be offered first to healthcare workers and first responders.  And I dont' think by summer either.  Fall, maybe for the start.  

[lenquixote66]

21 hours ago, Stockjock said:

I've worked for one of the major Wall Street firms for over 30 years.  Our biotech team put out this projected timeline.  Obviously, no one knows for sure what will happen, but I thought you might find it interesting.

My next cruise isn't until October 2020 (northern Europe), so we'll see if things have improved by then.

My prediction is a return to cruising in the latter part of 2021 or possibly never.