How will passenger numbers on future P&O Cruises be reduced?

[jeanlyon]

No insurance company will cover anybody if they are travelling against FCO advice.  That will have to be lifted before anybody goes anywhere, let alone cruises.

[Eddie99]

Here’s another report on that unnamed cruise ship, which is easier to read than the busy-busy Independent website 

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-05-27/cruise-ship-study-suggests-asymptomatic-covid-19-may-be-more-common-than-thought/

 

81% infected but asymptomatic - sounds astonishing to my non-qualified ears.

[terrierjohn]

2 hours ago, Denarius said:

I have no medical training but was a statistician (actuary) To my mind, the only way this can be resolved is by giving an antibody test to a random sample of the population. The results would provide an estimate of the proportion of the population who had actually been infected, not just those who had reported symptoms but also those who had not. This is important because if the proportion who have actually been infected far exceeds those who have shown symptoms as the cruise ship study suggests, then the actual mortality rate is corespondingly lower. The virus may not be as deadly as assumed, but we have no way of knowing unless and until random tests are done. Until then it is, as you say, all guesswork.

AFAIK that is already happening now that PHE have approved a viable test, one of the experts on the daily briefing reported this last week sometime.

 

[terrierjohn]

2 hours ago, jeanlyon said:

No insurance company will cover anybody if they are travelling against FCO advice.  That will have to be lifted before anybody goes anywhere, let alone cruises.

As I am sure it will be once we get to the final stages of the relaxation of lockdown.

[tring]

Just now, terrierjohn said:

AFAIK that is already happening now that PHE have approved a viable test, one of the experts on the daily briefing reported this last week sometime.

 

 

I was about to say that and results have been reported.  The confidence levels were not high, but even so numbers would not indicate a lot of people had antibodies (forget how many but possibly less than 10% - higher in London).

 

The other point is that it is not known how many people produce antibodies after infection, so the number of people who have had the disease could be more than those showing antibodies.  I think I heard/saw something recently which said a mild disease is possibly less likely to produce an immune response and that the strength of immune response varies as well.  Lots not known yet.

 

As the reported ship was not named, but from numbers was obviously one with not many passengers, I do wonder if it could have been some sort of educational vessel - so could well have a much younger age profile to what we think of for P&O or similar lines, so possibly a much higher proportion of non symptomatic cases.  An interesting article though.

[davecttr]

1 hour ago, tring said:

 

I was about to say that and results have been reported.  The confidence levels were not high, but even so numbers would not indicate a lot of people had antibodies (forget how many but possibly less than 10% - higher in London).

 

The other point is that it is not known how many people produce antibodies after infection, so the number of people who have had the disease could be more than those showing antibodies.  I think I heard/saw something recently which said a mild disease is possibly less likely to produce an immune response and that the strength of immune response varies as well.  Lots not known yet.

 

As the reported ship was not named, but from numbers was obviously one with not many passengers, I do wonder if it could have been some sort of educational vessel - so could well have a much younger age profile to what we think of for P&O or similar lines, so possibly a much higher proportion of non symptomatic cases.  An interesting article though.

It appears it was the Aurora Expeditions 'Greg Mortimer', currently east of Brazil heading to the Canary Islands.

[BrianI]

If you look at the ITV report, the ships name can clearly be seen in the photo and it is the Seven Seas Explorer. Assuming that ITV have the actual photo and not taken a stock image of a cruiseship

Brian

edit..

The Explorer has 750 guests and 552 crew so is not the ship referred to in the report.

Brian

Edited May 28, 2020 by BrianI

[pete14]

13 minutes ago, BrianI said:

If you look at the ITV report, the ships name can clearly be seen in the photo and it is the Seven Seas Explorer. Assuming that ITV have the actual photo and not taken a stock image of a cruiseship

Brian

Whichever it is, at least they have not used a picture of a P&O ferry as seems to be par for the course.

[Adawn47]

6 hours ago, pete14 said:

And now we have a ‘world beating’ track and trace system starting today

I've been listening to Matt Hancock just now and I'm confused. If you're contacted then you have to self isolate for 14 days. I understand that. However when asked about other members of the household he said that they didn't have to. Now I AM confused. You could have unknowingly passed the virus onto another member of your family but they can still go out?? Is it just me not understanding or does it seem a useless test.

Avril 

[Eddie99]

Predictive text failed there Avril.  You meant government and it typed test 🙄

[Josy1953]

6 minutes ago, Adawn47 said:

I've been listening to Matt Hancock just now and I'm confused. If you're contacted then you have to self isolate for 14 days. I understand that. However when asked about other members of the household he said that they didn't have to. Now I AM confused. You could have unknowingly passed the virus onto another member of your family but they can still go out?? Is it just me not understanding or does it seem a useless test.

Avril 

I'm confused too   

[Adawn47]

1 minute ago, Eddie99 said:

Predictive text failed there Avril.  You meant government and it typed test 🙄

Not predictive text Eddie as you well know😆, but point taken😉

Avril 

[zap99]

5 hours ago, wowzz said:

And as the test results are taking up to 7 days to be reported, the whole exercise is pretty much a waste of time.

I heard that 84% of results were available within 24 hours and 95% within 48 hours. So if that is a waste of time, are you suggesting we stop doing them?.

[Snow Hill]

1 hour ago, Adawn47 said:

I've been listening to Matt Hancock just now and I'm confused. If you're contacted then you have to self isolate for 14 days. I understand that. However when asked about other members of the household he said that they didn't have to. Now I AM confused. You could have unknowingly passed the virus onto another member of your family but they can still go out?? Is it just me not understanding or does it seem a useless test.

Avril 

We thought the same, sounds bonkers to me, seems government not learnt their lesson from a Cummings episode and left a big hole in the advice.

 

Current NHS advice is

 

If you're self-isolating, you and anyone you live with must not leave your home.

 

[Snow Hill]

We have had two theatre trips for July cancelled, the Hippodrome in Birmingham will remain closed until November 2 2020 the other venue until September, possibly longer. 
 

So how will cruise ships handle their theatre, bars and other entertainment places, if the 2m rule is kept until  year end will cruise ships sail with no entertainment? 

Edited May 28, 2020 by Snow Hill

[pete14]

19 minutes ago, Snow Hill said:

We have had two theatre trips for July cancelled, the Hippodrome in Birmingham will remain closed until November 2 2020 the other venue until September, possibly longer. 
 

So how will cruise ships handle their theatre, bars and other entertainment places, if the 2m rule is kept until  year end will cruise ships sail with no entertainment? 

In my view, a cruise with no live entertainment is infinitely preferable to no cruise at all. I think it won’t be long before the 2 metres becomes 1 metre anyway and whether good advice or not, it will make a big difference.

[Son of Anarchy]

1 hour ago, zap99 said:

I heard that 84% of results were available within 24 hours and 95% within 48 hours. So if that is a waste of time, are you suggesting we stop doing them?.

 

Can only speak for Southend Hospital.  Some tests are sent to Chelmsford. The rest (majority) are sent to Germany. ☣️

[zap99]

31 minutes ago, Son of Anarchy said:

 

Can only speak for Southend Hospital.  Some tests are sent to Chelmsford. The rest (majority) are sent to Germany. ☣️

I guess that's only fair. 80 years ago Germany sent loads of stuff to South East England.🤔.

[happy v]

3 hours ago, Adawn47 said:

I've been listening to Matt Hancock just now and I'm confused. If you're contacted then you have to self isolate for 14 days. I understand that. However when asked about other members of the household he said that they didn't have to. Now I AM confused. You could have unknowingly passed the virus onto another member of your family but they can still go out?? Is it just me not understanding or does it seem a useless test.

Avril 

You may not have it. You have only been in contact. If you display symptoms then the other members of your house have to isolate.

[cruisenewbie1976]

3 hours ago, Adawn47 said:

I've been listening to Matt Hancock just now and I'm confused. If you're contacted then you have to self isolate for 14 days. I understand that. However when asked about other members of the household he said that they didn't have to. Now I AM confused. You could have unknowingly passed the virus onto another member of your family but they can still go out?? Is it just me not understanding or does it seem a useless test.

Avril 

Yes, and if you developed symptoms the rest of the household would then have to start their 14 day isolation. I suppose its based around risk. There's only a chance you may have caught it from someone you've been in contact with who's infected. If they have whole households in isolation, just in case, people will be even less inclined to stick to it and you'd have lots of people unable to go to work. In reality, if you're sticking to the rules, there shouldn't be anyone you're coming within 2 metres of for more than 15 mins (obviously there are exceptions to that depending on your job or caring responsibilities). 

[AndyMichelle]

2 hours ago, pete14 said:

In my view, a cruise with no live entertainment is infinitely preferable to no cruise at all. I think it won’t be long before the 2 metres becomes 1 metre anyway and whether good advice or not, it will make a big difference.

The 1m rule will happen soon to aide the hospitality industry. 

The WHO advise 1m and there is no proof that 2m is any better apparently. 

I ain't going within 2m of anyone for a long time, saves a fortune on aftershave... 😊

Andy 

[terrierjohn]

37 minutes ago, AndyMichelle said:

The 1m rule will happen soon to aide the hospitality industry. 

The WHO advise 1m and there is no proof that 2m is any better apparently. 

I ain't going within 2m of anyone for a long time, saves a fortune on aftershave... 😊

Andy 

That's not what the experts said at todays briefing, from memory the risk at 1m is 24 times more than at 2m.

[AndyMichelle]

1 minute ago, terrierjohn said:

That's not what the experts said at todays briefing, from memory the risk at 1m is 24 times more than at 2m.

Only going by what was said on the radio today John, I'm no expert. 

Surprised if the WHO would recommend it then? 

Andy 

[AndyMichelle]

6 minutes ago, terrierjohn said:

That's not what the experts said at todays briefing, from memory the risk at 1m is 24 times more than at 2m.

Just checked the WHO website, they definitely only recommended 1 metre. 

Andy 

[zap99]

12 minutes ago, AndyMichelle said:

Just checked the WHO website, they definitely only recommended 1 metre. 

Andy 

When it's reduced to half a metre I can get a haircut😂