Royal can breakeven with 30% load factor. Until things get back to normal

[ONECRUISER]

On 5/22/2020 at 6:10 PM, drrich2 said:

Here's a major elephant in the room; are they factoring in reduced passenger capacity into the bookings they're taking for 2021? 

It's easy to say 'Just lift and shift,' or similar, but if you've got a job, kids in school, etc..., other factors may impact your vacation scheduling flexibility. For some people, getting time off approved can seem like pulling teeth. 

If they take bookings to fill those ships, then decide to cancel on 2/3rds the passengers, there'll be some ticked off people. 

Nope, some popular sailings next yr Cabins filling fast, easily over 50%. Doubt there are stopping Bookings at that level anyway. Doubt they'll be that restriction next yr anyway. If Ships having CV issues then dont think would ever be leaving Port... In Past Royal and some Airlines when overbooked, nobody volunteers to cancel then last one to Book is gone

[ONECRUISER]

17 hours ago, JoeFan said:

I have an 8/29/20 Symphony cruise set and I would love to see this sail at 30%.

It has stops in Labadee, Falmouth and CocoCay. I would be fine to see them cancel Falmouth and do a second day at CocoCay. That will be a great stop at 30% capacity.

Unless you are one of the other 70% that is told you cant go, if they decide to cap at set number its possible. Careful what you wish for... From 9/11-the next May did 5 Royal Cruises and none the Ships ran Full, think at most one d

had 85% Cabins on one sailing with passengers. This with no kids on 3 of them and most were Solo or 2 passengers per. One I remember 2450 Capacity, we has 1600 passengers. That level ship always seemed emptier then that. Was less scheduled things to do also

[John&LaLa]

6 hours ago, Merion_Mom said:

 

I have met many Canadians who think nothing of driving 12 hours to Cape Liberty.

 

Well, if you go 500 miles away the US population available is 89 million. I'm guessing well over 100 million if you count Canadiens 

[Biker19]

2 hours ago, ONECRUISER said:

In Past Royal and some Airlines when overbooked, nobody volunteers to cancel then last one to Book is gone

Not sure we have data to show RCI's bumping pattern, other than perhaps slightly higher chance with a GTY booking.

[Blizzard54]

6 hours ago, bigrednole said:

RCL will only limit capacity based on CDC direction. They will put the max capacity they can on the ship. The bigger issue is going to be getting workers back, entertainers back, and how to manage in order to be able to return to the home port. RCL cannot survive past the short term with only limited capacity. Their annual profits pre-CV19 would barely cover the loan payments. That means they are going to have to increase revenue, cut expenses. The obvious place they will cut expenses is in services and offerings. They are going to need to sail with 60-75% capacity moving forward to close the loans. They are not cheap at 11.5%. It may even take the release of more shares to pay for it.

 

I was wondering how long it would take for someone to mention re-staffing.   I suppose some will be desperate enough to jump at the chance to work again but there may be a fair number of crew that may not be too eager to go back to ships in fear of getting stuck at sea. 

[mek]

15 hours ago, Ourusualbeach said:

After not sailing for 4 or more months cancelling all the bookings to TRY and resell them at a couple hundred $ more per booking would be the last thing they would ever attempt.  They need to keep customers not alienate them.  

Agree, just my opinion but I don't see them doing that - how would they possibly give refunds quickly enough not to have a situation where they were accepting money for new bookings before refunding the original bookings?  

[Ocean Boy]

23 minutes ago, Blizzard54 said:

 

I was wondering how long it would take for someone to mention re-staffing.   I suppose some will be desperate enough to jump at the chance to work again but there may be a fair number of crew that may not be too eager to go back to ships in fear of getting stuck at sea. 

Some of that may depend on what type of work they can get, or social programs they can fall back on, at home.  Having  bills to pay, or being hungry, can be big motivators for taking a job and going to work.

[ONECRUISER]

3 hours ago, Biker19 said:

Not sure we have data to show RCI's bumping pattern, other than perhaps slightly higher chance with a GTY booking.

True, and was rare. 

Edited May 24, 2020 by ONECRUISER

[bigrednole]

7 hours ago, Blizzard54 said:

 

I was wondering how long it would take for someone to mention re-staffing.   I suppose some will be desperate enough to jump at the chance to work again but there may be a fair number of crew that may not be too eager to go back to ships in fear of getting stuck at sea. 

Seeing that most of the crews are returning to countries that have no work for them or work that pays so little they can't live, I don't see a shortage of finding workers. The real question is the logistics of getting them to where they need to be. Since only a few ports are planned to be open, getting the best crews on board those ships is critical. The staff that will be hardest to get back are the entertainers. They may choose not to return, find other gigs that won't allow them to, or any number of things. From what I have seen it takes 2 months of training to be ready to be a performer at the Aqua Show, the skating shows, and the dancers on the stage shows. If they are going to be new entertainers, they need to start training now for August. 

[Tree_skier]

8 hours ago, Ocean Boy said:

Some of that may depend on what type of work they can get, or social programs they can fall back on, at home.  Having  bills to pay, or being hungry, can be big motivators for taking a job and going to work.

India and the Philippines aren't exactly noted for the their generous social programs. I can't imagine what a food stamp program in Manilla or New Dehli looks like.

[mugtech]

1 hour ago, Tree_skier said:

India and the Philippines aren't exactly noted for the their generous social programs. I can't imagine what a food stamp program in Manilla or New Dehli looks like.

In the Philippines currently it is 25 or 50 kg of rice a few 6oz cans of sardines and a few single serving packs of noodles per family.