Royal can breakeven with 30% load factor. Until things get back to normal

[John&LaLa]

1 hour ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

Under this theory, would they allow b2b2b.....???

 

Sure, but they might boot you off

[mpk]

7 hours ago, Tree_skier said:

No one is suggesting they sail at 30% indefinitely.  The original post just noted that the larger ships could do so. This would obviously be temporary as cruise lines begin to return to operation. A more likely realistic scenario is that 30% becomes 40% then become 50% then becomes whatever becomes the mid term reality.

 

Exactly.  It's not like they can immediately restart and have ships at high occupancy overnight.  There are a lot of gears and moving parts to the cruise industry.

 

Even if the virus was solved tomorrow and everyone wanted to sail without any qualms, I doubt that any cruise line would want to immediately start at full occupancy.

Edited May 23, 2020 by mpk

[Jingerwoppy]

11 hours ago, mek said:

My guess is most cruises, especially the ones until the end of this year, are already booked at 30% so why would prices increase?  I think a lot of 2021 cruises are also booked at 30% also - just because of Lift and Shift, if no other reason.

I don't think RC will honor the bookings for the cruises if they are going to be limited to 30%.I seriously doubt they can break even at current prices and sailing a ship at less than break even doesn't necessarily help their bottom line. 

[Anton]

3 hours ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

Under this theory, would they allow b2b2b.....???

I've been wondering about that.  Every cruise I have booked for September through January is a 3/4 night B2B or B2B2B.  Assuming those cruises happen I suppose they could make us go all the way off the ship and outside the terminal and check in for each leg like a new guest.  This being done just so they can vet us through the passenger screening protocols and have very concise records for each sailing.  Or they will run all the consecutive cruisers as a group through the passenger medical screening and then take those who are okay medically back to the holding area to reboard.  I'm hoping for option 2.  

 

 

 

[Ocean Boy]

30 minutes ago, Jingerwoppy said:

I don't think RC will honor the bookings for the cruises if they are going to be limited to 30%.I seriously doubt they can break even at current prices and sailing a ship at less than break even doesn't necessarily help their bottom line. 

Just to use small numbers, if there would be net cost of $1000 to not send a ship out or net cost of $500 to go ahead and sail, which is better for the bottom line even though with both options there is a loss?

[Ourusualbeach]

47 minutes ago, Jingerwoppy said:

I don't think RC will honor the bookings for the cruises if they are going to be limited to 30%.I seriously doubt they can break even at current prices and sailing a ship at less than break even doesn't necessarily help their bottom line. 

After not sailing for 4 or more months cancelling all the bookings to TRY and resell them at a couple hundred $ more per booking would be the last thing they would ever attempt.  They need to keep customers not alienate them.  

[ZoeyVictoria]

1 hour ago, Anton said:

I've been wondering about that.  Every cruise I have booked for September through January is a 3/4 night B2B or B2B2B.  Assuming those cruises happen I suppose they could make us go all the way off the ship and outside the terminal and check in for each leg like a new guest.  This being done just so they can vet us through the passenger screening protocols and have very concise records for each sailing.  Or they will run all the consecutive cruisers as a group through the passenger medical screening and then take those who are okay medically back to the holding area to reboard.  I'm hoping for option 2.  

 

 

 

I had a three-night on the Mariner booked in late October, then the Harmony in early November.  I was possibly being overly cautious, but I was afraid they might not let anyone board who had been out of the country during the previous 14 days.  Rather than risk seven nights on the Harmony (that was comped) over three nights on the Mariner (that I paid for), I cancelled the Mariner.  Like I said, I was probably being over cautious, but it wasn’t worth the worry.  I wonder if they will allow B2B at all on the initial cruises?

Edited May 24, 2020 by ZoeyVictoria

[Merion_Mom]

8 hours ago, Ourusualbeach said:

I can see them bringing Oasis down early from Bayonne as well as Allure coming back early and starting 3/4 day itineraries until their regular 7 day ones kicked in.  I don't think they will do anything with HM and SY until they are ready to sail a 7 day reduced capacity

 

TBH I think that a lot will depend on if any ports are open.  Cancelling a whole ship and then finding enough people to book a last minute cruise would be difficult as it would be all last minute.  I think they start with MN and NV, maybe add OA into the mix see how those go then add in the other OA ships doing a 7 day with greatly reduced capacity

 

I don't think that I agree with  you about Oasis.  Cape Liberty is the ultimate drive-to port for MILLIONS of people.

 

I can't remember the source, but I think that it was in excess of 20M.    You would have to keep the 7 night cruises, but you'd certainly have the customer base.

[Ourusualbeach]

4 minutes ago, Merion_Mom said:

 

I don't think that I agree with  you about Oasis.  Cape Liberty is the ultimate drive-to port for MILLIONS of people.

 

I can't remember the source, but I think that it was in excess of 20M.    You would have to keep the 7 night cruises, but you'd certainly have the customer base.

I agree that Bayonne is the ultimate drive to port I just don’t see the state of NY / NJ opening up for cruises this season. 

[long4acruise]

53 minutes ago, Merion_Mom said:

Cape Liberty is the ultimate drive-to port for MILLIONS of people.

 Also the ultimate port for a 2.5 hour Amtrak ride from the DC area at a great $98 r/t Super Saver rate!

[long4acruise]

53 minutes ago, Ourusualbeach said:

I agree that Bayonne is the ultimate drive to port I just don’t see the state of NY / NJ opening up for cruises this season. 

Also sadly agree we probably won't sail from NJ this summer.  "Lifted and Shifted" my Oasis Perfect Day Bahamas and ADV Canada/New England sailings to 2021 while cabin availability was good.

[John&LaLa]

2 hours ago, Merion_Mom said:

 

I don't think that I agree with  you about Oasis.  Cape Liberty is the ultimate drive-to port for MILLIONS of people.

 

I can't remember the source, but I think that it was in excess of 20M.    You would have to keep the 7 night cruises, but you'd certainly have the customer base.

 

How far away do you define drive-to?

[Merion_Mom]

48 minutes ago, John&LaLa said:

 

How far away do you define drive-to?

 

I have met many Canadians who think nothing of driving 12 hours to Cape Liberty.

[Ourusualbeach]

1 minute ago, Merion_Mom said:

 

I have met many Canadians who think nothing of driving 12 hours to Cape Liberty.

And some that drive 24 hours to Florida

[Merion_Mom]

2 minutes ago, Ourusualbeach said:

And some that drive 24 hours to Florida

 

Well, yes, people do very strange things like that.  I actually mean Canadians who have told me that they drive 12 hours straight through.  😮 

[Ourusualbeach]

1 minute ago, Merion_Mom said:

 

Well, yes, people do very strange things like that.  I actually mean Canadians who have told me that they drive 12 hours straight through.  😮 

We have been driving straight through twice a year since 2011.  25 - 26 hours to Miami. 

[Merion_Mom]

Just now, Ourusualbeach said:

We have been driving straight through twice a year since 2011.  25 - 26 hours to Miami. 

SERIOUSLY?????  No hotel?  Driving straight for 25/26 hours?????

 

You're nuts.  And I mean that in the nicest way.  😄 

[Ourusualbeach]

1 minute ago, Merion_Mom said:

SERIOUSLY?????  No hotel?  Driving straight for 25/26 hours?????

 

You're nuts.  And I mean that in the nicest way.  😄 

Seriously.  No hotel.  We leave at 3 in the afternoon once school is out and church into our hotel in Miami the next day at about 5.  Eat, shower and sleep then board the ship the next morning.   We actually started in 2004 and went once a year until 2011 to new Smyrna Beach.  Flights from Canada at March break and Christmas for the 4 of us pay for a second  cruise.  It’s just become part of our vacation.  Time with the kids without internet.  

[Merion_Mom]

4 minutes ago, Ourusualbeach said:

Seriously.  No hotel.  We leave at 3 in the afternoon once school is out and church into our hotel in Miami the next day at about 5.  Eat, shower and sleep then board the ship the next morning.   We actually started in 2004 and went once a year until 2011 to new Smyrna Beach.  Flights from Canada at March break and Christmas for the 4 of us pay for a second  cruise.  It’s just become part of our vacation.  Time with the kids without internet.  

 

And they don't  kill each other???  😮

 

[Ourusualbeach]

Just now, Merion_Mom said:

 

And they don't  kill each other???  😮

 

There were some tense moments when they were younger.  Pillow walls came in handy. 

[HBE4]

4 hours ago, Ourusualbeach said:

I agree that Bayonne is the ultimate drive to port I just don’t see the state of NY / NJ opening up for cruises this season. 

 

If football games, amusement parks and concerts were to be allowed this fall in NJ / NY, why not cruises?  Is it because Royal will be concentrating its limited cruises to Asia, Europe and Florida/Texas?

 

47 minutes ago, Ourusualbeach said:

Seriously.  No hotel.  We leave at 3 in the afternoon once school is out and church into our hotel in Miami the next day at about 5.  Eat, shower and sleep then board the ship the next morning.   We actually started in 2004 and went once a year until 2011 to new Smyrna Beach.  Flights from Canada at March break and Christmas for the 4 of us pay for a second  cruise.  It’s just become part of our vacation.  Time with the kids without internet.  

 

Sounds like something I would do when I was in my 20's and 30's.  Now in my 50's, I'd need 3 days to recover from a drive like that.

 

Sharing I-95 at 3 am with tractor trailers has to be a bit monotonous.  I would need to crash at a cheap roadside motel for 5 or 6 hours.

Edited May 24, 2020 by HBE4

[mugtech]

4 hours ago, Merion_Mom said:

 

I don't think that I agree with  you about Oasis.  Cape Liberty is the ultimate drive-to port for MILLIONS of people.

 

I can't remember the source, but I think that it was in excess of 20M.    You would have to keep the 7 night cruises, but you'd certainly have the customer base.

Provided Transbridge is still in business, I am sure the $26 roundtrip bus tickets for seniors from Bethlehem to the port at Cape Liberty will be the way we take our first post covid-19 cruise. 

[molly361]

14 hours ago, John&LaLa said:

 

Something like Royal Up 😉

New Name   Royal On (Board)😇

[Biker19]

5 hours ago, long4acruise said:

 Also the ultimate port for a 2.5 hour Amtrak ride from the DC area at a great $98 r/t Super Saver rate!

There's been a bit of inflation -it's about $108 now. Too bad there's no longer a bus option.

[bigrednole]

RCL will only limit capacity based on CDC direction. They will put the max capacity they can on the ship. The bigger issue is going to be getting workers back, entertainers back, and how to manage in order to be able to return to the home port. RCL cannot survive past the short term with only limited capacity. Their annual profits pre-CV19 would barely cover the loan payments. That means they are going to have to increase revenue, cut expenses. The obvious place they will cut expenses is in services and offerings. They are going to need to sail with 60-75% capacity moving forward to close the loans. They are not cheap at 11.5%. It may even take the release of more shares to pay for it.