Analyst: No Cruises Until At Least 2nd Quarter 2021

[Lee Cruiser]

Certainly hope this guy is wrong!  Nobody really knows at this point, so I'm sure he is just giving an educated guess from a business perspective.  My next cruise is scheduled for April on the Mardi Gras.  I'm looking forward to getting to cruise again, but not sure if I want to be on one of the first cruises back.

 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/cruise-stocks-drops-after-cdc-extends-no-sail-order-and-analyst-says-more-delays-expected-2020-07-17?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

 

Edited July 17, 2020 by Lee Cruiser
Omitted letter

[bingomamma19]

27 minutes ago, Lee Cruiser said:

Certainly hope this guy is wrong!  Nobody really knows at this point, so I'm sure he is just giving an educated guess from a business perspective.  My next cruise is scheduled for April on the Mardi Gras.  I'm looking forward to getting to cruise again, but not sure if I want to be on one of the first cruises back.

 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/cruise-stocks-drops-after-cdc-extends-no-sail-order-and-analyst-says-more-delays-expected-2020-07-17?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

 

it doesnt say no cruises.

_____________________________________________________

"We continue to believe that sailings will not resume in quantity in North America until at least 2Q21"

 

_____________________________________________________

It says "in quantity" meaning at a larger scale.  

 

My next one is March 27 on the Breeze (replaced the Radiance).   If any cruises sail this fall, i will jump on one of those also.

Edited July 17, 2020 by bingomamma19

[Garf]

I wanted to book a cruise for July 3, or 4, 2021 but will not be booking any cruises for now.I first started cruising back in 1990 and do miss it.  SAFETY FIRST !!

Edited July 17, 2020 by Garf

[Lee Cruiser]

13 minutes ago, bingomamma19 said:

it doesnt say no cruises.

_____________________________________________________

"We continue to believe that sailings will not resume in quantity in North America until at least 2Q21"

 

_____________________________________________________

It says "in quantity" meaning at a larger scale.  

 

My next one is March 27 on the Breeze (replaced the Radiance).   If any cruises sail this fall, i will jump on one of those also.

You're right.  I tried to edit it, but I can't now.

[Eli_6]

China has a vaccine going to market...not that that helps us. The UK has one in stage 3 being tested on about 30k people.  150 others in the works.  If they UK trial is successful, it will likely start be availabe in early 2021 in limited numbers.  Likely front line healthcare workers would get it first likely followed by high risk.  

[PhillyFan33579]

6 hours ago, Eli_6 said:

China has a vaccine going to market...not that that helps us. The UK has one in stage 3 being tested on about 30k people.  150 others in the works.  If they UK trial is successful, it will likely start be availabe in early 2021 in limited numbers.  Likely front line healthcare workers would get it first likely followed by high risk.  

Not to put a damper on things, but there is no guarantee an effective vaccine will be available any time soon. The fastest vaccine ever developed was for mumps and that took 4 years. Additionally, an effective vaccine has yet to be developed for other coronaviruses including SARS and MERS. Promising early results does not mean an effective vaccine is imminent. 

[CRocks]

Don't think I'll be shootin up anytime soon with anything Made in China! But hey, that's just me!

[firefly333]

Lol another thread that I expect to dissolve into arguing when cruises will resume. As op says it's just one more guess like we see daily here.

 

No one knows 

[firefly333]

7 hours ago, Eli_6 said:

 followed by high risk.  

Well there is one advantage to being old

[Eli_6]

58 minutes ago, PhillyFan33579 said:

Not to put a damper on things, but there is no guarantee an effective vaccine will be available any time soon. The fastest vaccine ever developed was for mumps and that took 4 years. Additionally, an effective vaccine has yet to be developed for other coronaviruses including SARS and MERS. Promising early results does not mean an effective vaccine is imminent. 

My husband is a physician who has been in faculty at two major med schools in the largest western hemisphere.  He was also a medical director at a different hospital and now owns his own clinic. While he is not personally working on a vaccine as that is not his specialty he has a patient who is and is flying all over the world consulting with experts from various universities and labs.  Over 150 vaccines are somewhere in the testing process.  China already has a vaccine that has (allegedly) proven effective in large scale testing and gotten approval proving to be mass produced. While even I would be wary of a Chinese vaccine (and, really, who knows how long until it would be available in the US), I do have faith in the progress being made at companies and Universities in the UK, in the US, in India, etc.

 

Prior to becoming a Dr, DH was a chemical engineer (in the 90s) who developed a way to transport highly volatile, high temp chemicals  through lines that made chemical plants much safer.  Unfortunately, he worked for a firm so they owned his intellectual property. So he has actually, albeit in a different field, been through the process of "developing" a concept or idea into an actual usable product.

 

I provide this background not to brag in anyway, but to show that I am not Gidget Google.  My husband has more knowledge both about virology and the process of trying to nd the approval process than the average Joe.  He believes we will have a vaccine in the next 6-9 months.  There are simply so many resources being thrown at it.  He thinks the bigger issue will be how long it might take to get it available to the masses. 

 

Another thing to note (because I have heard people remark on the fact that we aren't even sure if one can develop immunity to the virus) is that some of the vaccines now being worked on are employing new technology that alters the way the virus attaches and doesn't even work in the same way as other vaccines do.

 

One of my husband's colleagues at UT Health Science Center in Houston (in conjunction with a physician from a Japanese university) won the Nobel Prize in medicine two years ago for developing a treatment to alter human cells to fight Cancer in patients that were previously considered terminal:

 

https://www-houstonchronicle-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/amp/Houston-scientist-Jim-Allison-wins-Nobel-13273632.php?usqp=mq331AQTKAGYAf7-r-OFs7ukHbABINgBAQ%3D%3D&amp_js_v=a2&amp_gsa=1#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.houstonchronicle.com%2Fnews%2Fhouston-texas%2Fhouston%2Farticle%2FHouston-scientist-Jim-Allison-wins-Nobel-13273632.php

 

Yes, I know that's different, but my point is that scientists are not just looking at the typical way of providing resistance but in entirely new ways much like the doctors above discovered a new way to treat cancers that were previously hopeless.  

 

We are light years ahead of where we were when the vaccine for Mumps was developed. Researchers KNOW what is safe and what isn't to put in a vaccine.  The research on MERS and SARS actually gave us a leg up on this vaccine I terms of what works.

 

Just look how much less deadly Covid is already than it was four months ago.  Why? Because already doctors and scientists are discovering best practices for treatment.  While the death numbers in Texas are under reported (lag in processing death certificates at state offices that are partially shut down), we still are having relatively few deaths in comparison to the HUGE numbers of positives we are getting because some people still refuse to socially distance and mask wear.  It's not because the virus has become less deadly. It is because we are getting better at treating it. 

 

Not trying to argue.  Nothing is ever definite.  And I am certainly not an expert.   But I can tell you my husband (who has way more knowledge than I do) has no qualms about me planning two B2B European cruises for next summer or buying four round trip business class plane tickets to Europe and back. He thinks there will be a vaccine by then.  He did, however, poo-poo a fall or winter cruise (because I booked one without telling him but it was only a $99 deposit) and is looking into hiring a private teacher for our children to teach them in our home for the fall semester even though their private school has only 10-12 kids in a classroom. So, he does take it very seriously. He just thinks the long-term outlook is positive.

Edited July 18, 2020 by Eli_6

[Earthworm Jim]

29 minutes ago, CRocks said:

Don't think I'll be shootin up anytime soon with anything Made in China! But hey, that's just me!

 

Maybe you already have. 80% of our pharmaceutical active ingredients come from foreign countries according to a GAO report. And China, not surprisingly, is one of the major players in that field.

[JT1962]

I tend to agree with the analysis in the article. All of the cruise lines have indicated they will use a phased return to cruising by starting with a few ships and adding more as things go well over the next 4-6 months. Even if cruising started in January (which is questionable at this point), it would be May or June before all ships were sailing again.

[PhillyFan33579]

5 minutes ago, Eli_6 said:

My husband is a physician who has been in faculty at two major med schools in the largest western hemisphere.  He was also a medical director at a different hospital and now owns his own clinic. While he is not personally working on a vaccine as that is not his specialty he has a patient who is and is flying all over the world consulting with experts from various universities and labs.  Over 150 vaccines are somewhere in the testing process.  China already has a vaccine that has (allegedly) proven effective in large scale testing and gotten approval proving to be mass produced. While even I would be wary of a Chinese vaccine (and, really, who knows how long until it would be available in the US), I do have faith in the progress being made at companies and Universities in the UK, in the US, in India, etc.

 

Prior to becoming a Dr, DH was a chemical engineer (in the 90s) who developed a way to transport highly volatile, high temp chemicals  through lines that made chemical plants much safer.  Unfortunately, he worked for a firm so they owned his intellectual property. So he has actually, albeit in a different field, been through the process of "developing" a concept or idea into an actual usable product.

 

I provide this background not to brag in anyway, but to show that I am not Gidget Google.  My husband has more knowledge both about virology and the process of trying to nd the approval process than the average Joe.  He believes we will have a vaccine in the next 6-9 months.  There are simply so many resources being thrown at it.  He thinks the bigger issue will be how long it might take to get it available to the masses. 

 

Another thing to note (because I have heard people remark on the fact that we aren't even sure if one can develop immunity to the virus) is that some of the vaccines now being worked on are employing new technology that alters the way the virus attaches and doesn't even work in the same way as other vaccines do.

 

One of my husband's colleagues at UT Health Science Center in Houston (in conjunction with a physician from a Japanese university) won the Nobel Prize in medicine two years ago for developing a treatment to alter human cells to fight Cancer in patients that were previously considered terminal:

 

https://www-houstonchronicle-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/amp/Houston-scientist-Jim-Allison-wins-Nobel-13273632.php?usqp=mq331AQTKAGYAf7-r-OFs7ukHbABINgBAQ%3D%3D&amp_js_v=a2&amp_gsa=1#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.houstonchronicle.com%2Fnews%2Fhouston-texas%2Fhouston%2Farticle%2FHouston-scientist-Jim-Allison-wins-Nobel-13273632.php

 

Yes, I know that's different, but my point is that scientists are not just looking at the typical way of providing resistance but in entirely new ways much like the doctors above discovered a new way to treat cancers that were previously hopeless.  

 

We are light years ahead of where we were when the vaccine for Mumps was developed. Researchers KNOW what is safe and what isn't to put in a vaccine.  The research on MERS and SARS actually gave us a leg up on this vaccine I terms of what works.

 

Just look how much less deadly Covid is already than it was four months ago.  Why? Because already doctors and scientists are discovering best practices for treatment.  While the death numbers in Texas are under reported (lag in processing death certificates at state offices that are partially shut down), we still are having relatively few deaths in comparison to the HUGE numbers of positives we are getting because some people still refuse to socially distance and mask wear.  It's not because the virus has become less deadly. It is because we are getting better at treating it. 

 

Not trying to argue.  Nothing is ever definite.  And I am certainly not an expert.   But I can tell you my husband (who has way more knowledge than I do) has no qualms about me planning two B2B European cruises for next summer or buying four round trip business class plane tickets to Europe and back. He thinks there will be a vaccine by then.  He did, however, poo-poo a fall or winter cruise (because I booked one without telling him but it was only a $99 deposit) and is looking into hiring a private teacher for our children to teach them in our home for the fall semester even though their private school has only 10-12 kids in a classroom. So, he does take it very seriously. He just thinks the long-term outlook is positive.

Excellent and informative post. The point I was trying to convey is a lot of people on this site think it is a foregone conclusion that an effective vaccine will be developed soon. While I wouldn’t even begin to compare my medical knowledge and experience to your husband’s, I doubt even he would absolutely guarantee an effective vaccine will be developed.
 

I still vividly remember scientists in the 1980s saying they will have a vaccine for HIV in two years. Yet, here we are in 2020 and we still don’t have a vaccine for HIV. However, treatment for HIV has improved dramatically over this same time period to the point HIV is no longer automatically a death sentence any more. Like you mentioned treatment for COVID-19 has already significantly improved and will only continue to improve in the future, no matter what happens vaccine wise. 

[jimbo5544]

38 minutes ago, Eli_6 said:

My husband is a physician who has been in faculty at two major med schools in the largest western hemisphere.  He was also a medical director at a different hospital and now owns his own clinic. While he is not personally working on a vaccine as that is not his specialty he has a patient who is and is flying all over the world consulting with experts from various universities and labs.  Over 150 vaccines are somewhere in the testing process.  China already has a vaccine that has (allegedly) proven effective in large scale testing and gotten approval proving to be mass produced. While even I would be wary of a Chinese vaccine (and, really, who knows how long until it would be available in the US), I do have faith in the progress being made at companies and Universities in the UK, in the US, in India, etc.

 

Prior to becoming a Dr, DH was a chemical engineer (in the 90s) who developed a way to transport highly volatile, high temp chemicals  through lines that made chemical plants much safer.  Unfortunately, he worked for a firm so they owned his intellectual property. So he has actually, albeit in a different field, been through the process of "developing" a concept or idea into an actual usable product.

 

I provide this background not to brag in anyway, but to show that I am not Gidget Google.  My husband has more knowledge both about virology and the process of trying to nd the approval process than the average Joe.  He believes we will have a vaccine in the next 6-9 months.  There are simply so many resources being thrown at it.  He thinks the bigger issue will be how long it might take to get it available to the masses. 

 

Another thing to note (because I have heard people remark on the fact that we aren't even sure if one can develop immunity to the virus) is that some of the vaccines now being worked on are employing new technology that alters the way the virus attaches and doesn't even work in the same way as other vaccines do.

 

One of my husband's colleagues at UT Health Science Center in Houston (in conjunction with a physician from a Japanese university) won the Nobel Prize in medicine two years ago for developing a treatment to alter human cells to fight Cancer in patients that were previously considered terminal:

 

https://www-houstonchronicle-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/amp/Houston-scientist-Jim-Allison-wins-Nobel-13273632.php?usqp=mq331AQTKAGYAf7-r-OFs7ukHbABINgBAQ%3D%3D&amp_js_v=a2&amp_gsa=1#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.houstonchronicle.com%2Fnews%2Fhouston-texas%2Fhouston%2Farticle%2FHouston-scientist-Jim-Allison-wins-Nobel-13273632.php

 

Yes, I know that's different, but my point is that scientists are not just looking at the typical way of providing resistance but in entirely new ways much like the doctors above discovered a new way to treat cancers that were previously hopeless.  

 

We are light years ahead of where we were when the vaccine for Mumps was developed. Researchers KNOW what is safe and what isn't to put in a vaccine.  The research on MERS and SARS actually gave us a leg up on this vaccine I terms of what works.

 

Just look how much less deadly Covid is already than it was four months ago.  Why? Because already doctors and scientists are discovering best practices for treatment.  While the death numbers in Texas are under reported (lag in processing death certificates at state offices that are partially shut down), we still are having relatively few deaths in comparison to the HUGE numbers of positives we are getting because some people still refuse to socially distance and mask wear.  It's not because the virus has become less deadly. It is because we are getting better at treating it. 

 

Not trying to argue.  Nothing is ever definite.  And I am certainly not an expert.   But I can tell you my husband (who has way more knowledge than I do) has no qualms about me planning two B2B European cruises for next summer or buying four round trip business class plane tickets to Europe and back. He thinks there will be a vaccine by then.  He did, however, poo-poo a fall or winter cruise (because I booked one without telling him but it was only a $99 deposit) and is looking into hiring a private teacher for our children to teach them in our home for the fall semester even though their private school has only 10-12 kids in a classroom. So, he does take it very seriously. He just thinks the long-term outlook is positive.

From your typing to God's ear

[firefly333]

18 minutes ago, PhillyFan33579 said:

Excellent and informative post. The point I was trying to convey is a lot of people on this site think it is a foregone conclusion that an effective vaccine will be developed soon. 
 

I agree  excellent post giving me hope.

On the other hand name one person who has posted there will be a effective vaccine "soon". Maybe depends on your definition of soon, and mass marketing.. 

 

I haven't read any posts expecting a vaccine distributed "soon". ... maybe some say hope, and you read  into it soon. 

 

I have read some willing to cruise without a vaccine.... but none expecting one to be distributed soon. 

Edited July 18, 2020 by firefly333

[pe4all]

Eli_6 - Thank you for a great post.  While I do not know how long it will be until we have a viable vaccine that is mass-produced and effective, I try to stay positive thinking that the greatest scientific minds in the world are working on solving the covid19 problem.  I miss cruising terribly - along with all the land vacations we were planning and had to cancel since this began.  I miss sitting and shmoozing with my friends at a happy hour.  I miss not being comfortable in the heat wave we have now, due to wearing a mask.  There are many things I miss, but hopefully will regain in the future.  Have to stay positive that our world will not change too much - but I am willing to give things up now so hopefully things will loosen up in time.

[Darcy8]

It was just announced here in our city that they are starting human testing on 3 different vaccines and are looking for volunteers.   Two are said to be in 3rd stage of testing and one is in stage 2.    I don't know what that means, but they do seem to be making speedy progress on US vaccines.

[Joe817]

1 minute ago, Darcy8 said:

It was just announced here in our city that they are starting human testing on 3 different vaccines and are looking for volunteers.   Two are said to be in 3rd stage of testing and one is in stage 2.    I don't know what that means, but they do seem to be making speedy progress on US vaccines.

Can you post a link to that announcement? That's good news! Thanks! 

[ontheweb]

4 hours ago, PhillyFan33579 said:

Not to put a damper on things, but there is no guarantee an effective vaccine will be available any time soon. The fastest vaccine ever developed was for mumps and that took 4 years. Additionally, an effective vaccine has yet to be developed for other coronaviruses including SARS and MERS. Promising early results does not mean an effective vaccine is imminent. 

"Not to put a damper", but isn't that exactly what you are doing?

 

Medical science has progressed a lot since earlier unsuccessful tries at vaccines. And there seems to be an unprecedented amount of resources being thrown at this vaccine.

 

The post by Eli 6 seems to offer much in the way of hope, but I cannot argue with your contention that there is no guarantee. But there is also no guarantee that there will not be a successful breakthrough.

[ontheweb]

6 minutes ago, Darcy8 said:

It was just announced here in our city that they are starting human testing on 3 different vaccines and are looking for volunteers.   Two are said to be in 3rd stage of testing and one is in stage 2.    I don't know what that means, but they do seem to be making speedy progress on US vaccines.

Could you say what city you are referring to?

[Darcy8]

https://www.kwch.com/2020/07/14/vaccine-trial-for-covid-19-beginning-in-wichita-area/

 

[Joe817]

51 minutes ago, Darcy8 said:

https://www.kwch.com/2020/07/14/vaccine-trial-for-covid-19-beginning-in-wichita-area/

 

Thank you. I notice that the trials may begin in 12 months. They are looking for volunteers right now. Still, a great step in the right direction.

[xDisconnections]

22 hours ago, Lee Cruiser said:

Certainly hope this guy is wrong!

 

Why do you hope he is wrong? 

[Eli_6]

2 hours ago, Darcy8 said:

It was just announced here in our city that they are starting human testing on 3 different vaccines and are looking for volunteers.   Two are said to be in 3rd stage of testing and one is in stage 2.    I don't know what that means, but they do seem to be making speedy progress on US vaccines.

They are starting stage 3 testing in Houston soon, too, on one vaccine or another. It was on the evening news about a week or two ago, but I don't remember which one. I know Novavax and Moderna are moving along but don't know if they are in stage 2 or 3.  Astra Zeneca in concert with Oxford Uni have started stage 3 but I *think* (albeit not 100 percent on this) they are testing in the UK.  The news report I saw said they picked Houston because we have a large and racially diverse population.

 

Here is a link to an article I just googled:

 

https://www-khou-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.khou.com/amp/article/news/health/coronavirus/how-you-can-volunteer-for-next-phase-of-moderna-covid-19-vaccine-trial-in-houston/285-53f5c1ae-caef-4ffe-888a-b0a37a2e3daf?usqp=mq331AQTKAGYAdSuk-Dp2e-yZbABINgBAQ%3D%3D&amp_js_v=a2&amp_gsa=1#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.khou.com%2Farticle%2Fnews%2Fhealth%2Fcoronavirus%2Fhow-you-can-volunteer-for-next-phase-of-moderna-covid-19-vaccine-trial-in-houston%2F285-53f5c1ae-caef-4ffe-888a-b0a37a2e3daf

 

[Eli_6]

If you don't feel like reading the article I linked to above, it is Moderna starting the stage 3 trial on 30,000 people in 87 cities on July 27th.

 

The study will go on for awhile, though.  They have to see if the partipants develop immunity and if they maintain it.  They will probably follow them a year I would guess. 

Edited July 18, 2020 by Eli_6