Two Carnival Cruise Ships Have Been Sold and Two Others Going to Long Term Lay-Up Status

[xDisconnections]

25 minutes ago, tidecat said:

The only thing we can be reasonably sure of was Fantasy was most certainly a goner in January 2022, when the Fascination was set to reposition to Mobile.

 

Unless if Carnival was willing to return to San Juan later in 2022, I would suspect Ecstasy was likely a goner near the end of 2022 as well simply due to being 31 years old and due for drydock, and the Sensation or Elation would have likely taken over in Jacksonville. It's also possible Imagination gets the boot in 2022 instead of Ecstasy as she would have been due for drydock as well.

 

It's also possible Inspiration could have been retired in 2021 instead of being sent to drydock, in which case I think you see the redeployment of Radiance to Long Beach take place. Imagination would likely just sail alongside Sensation in Miami, or replaced Sunrise in Fort Lauderdale before being retired in 2022 (and Ecstasy likely lives another 2.5 years)

 

So even in the most aggressive scenario, you have 3 ships leaving by December 2022: Fantasy, Inspiration, and Imagination (or Ecstasy).

 

Since Carnival doesn't have anything on order after Celebration, we can't really extrapolate too much.  But if you assume a new ship every two years, we are likely saying goodbye to Sensation in late 2024 to avoid a January 2025 drydock. Ecstasy, Inspiration, and Imagination bow out in 2024 if they haven't already.

 

Fascination likely doesn't get retired until 2026. At this point Mobile has to step up to at least Spirit class, if not Conquest class. This could also mean a larger ship in San Diego or Sydney.

 

Elation and Paradise may survive 2028, depending on what the plans are for a 32-year old Carnival Sunshine, and new ports in Tampa, Jacksonville, and/or Baltimore.  It's possible Sunshine bows out here instead of a Fantasy-class ship if Carnival finds themselves the proud new owner of a vessel in excess of 150,000 tons. By sometime in the 2030s, the Elation and Paradise, though, inevitably meet the same fate.

Why does Mobile even need a ship? As @Thorncroft can attest to as an expert of the Mobile Port, it’s the place where cruise ships go to die. Just like ships, restaurants, local stores and other industries, not all cruise ports will be given a ship allocation or survive — and that’s okay.

Edited August 27, 2020 by xDisconnections

[tidecat]

38 minutes ago, xDisconnections said:

Why does Mobile even need a ship? As @Thorncroft can attest to as an expert of the Mobile Port, it’s the place where cruise ships go to die. Just like ships, restaurants, local stores and other industries, not all cruise ports will be given a ship allocation or survive — and that’s okay.

Mobile (where I grew up, by the way) is positioned well as a drive-up port for large portions of Northwest Florida, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, Kentucky, and even Indiana and Illinois. There's literally a point in Chicago where Mobile is the closer port than New Orleans.

 

Yes, Mobile gets older ships. But somebody has to have the oldest ship in the fleet, and when service resumes, that distinction will belong to . . . Jacksonville.

 

Carnival could make everyone schlep over to New Orleans, but New Orleans has a finite capacity of the number and size of ships it can accept - Carnival made a business decision that sailing a Fantasy-class ship out of Mobile is more profitable than putting a larger ship in New Orleans to serve the same passenger base from the Southeast and Midwest.

Edited August 27, 2020 by tidecat

[xDisconnections]

11 minutes ago, tidecat said:

Mobile (where I grew up, by the way) is positioned well as a drive-up port for large portions of Northwest Florida, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, Kentucky, and even Indiana and Illinois. There's literally a point in Chicago where Mobile is the closer port than New Orleans.

 

Yes, Mobile gets older ships. But somebody has to have the oldest ship in the fleet, and when service resumes, that distinction will belong to . . . Jacksonville.

 

Carnival could make everyone schlep over to New Orleans, but New Orleans has a finite capacity of the number and size of ships it can accept - Carnival made a business decision that sailing a Fantasy-class ship out of Mobile is more profitable than putting a larger ship in New Orleans to serve the same passenger base from the Southeast and Midwest.

And yet, Carnival cruises out of Mobile cannot command a higher cruise fare compared to its compset of Jacksonville and New Orleans. Cruises from Mobile are deeply discounted and it’s likely a ship was only placed there due to an overcapacity in other markets.

 

Carnival went for years without Mobile. They’ll be fine without it again in the future. The options it can provide are pretty limited also.

[PhillyFan33579]

6 hours ago, xDisconnections said:

When I first saw the Mardi Gras, it created excitement and I thought it was a ship I would enjoy and considered booking. This new direction is everything Carnival should be pushing for and they cannot move forward without regaining a competitive advantage.

What’s so exciting about Mardi Gras? From what I have seen and read, it seems like they are copying a lot of ideas that RCI implemented in their ships over 10 years ago. I also don’t understand the enthusiasm for Bolt. As a roller coaster enthusiast who has travelled around the country to ride roller coasters from Great Adventure on the East coast to Magic Mountain on the West coast, the thought of riding Bolt does not excite me. However, it is a different concept at sea, so I give credit to Carnival for that. 
 

There are still a lot of people out there (I am not one of them) that prefer smaller ships. That is one of the advantages Carnival has over RCI. RCI Voyager class ships, which are now all in the 20 years old range, or bigger than Carnival’s Vista class ships, which are currently their largest ships. Of course this will change when Mardi Gras begins sailing. 
 

Carnival’s focus over the last several years has been on the new or inexperienced cruiser. It is a strategy that was working very well prior to this current virus. If I was Carnival, my concern would be will this same group of people continue to book cruises in the future. Obviously people who are active on this site are going to keep on cruising sooner or later. However, the media has done a good job of portraying cruise ships as extremely dangerous during this pandemic. I have heard from numerous co-workers and neighbors who have never been on a cruise say they would never go on a cruise now or in the future. If that is a common belief across the country, it would have a significant impact on the target audience Carnival is trying to attract. 

[CruiseHealing]

7 hours ago, xDisconnections said:

And yet, Carnival cruises out of Mobile cannot command a higher cruise fare compared to its compset of Jacksonville and New Orleans. Cruises from Mobile are deeply discounted and it’s likely a ship was only placed there due to an overcapacity in other markets.

 

Carnival went for years without Mobile. They’ll be fine without it again in the future. The options it can provide are pretty limited also.

Another issue for Mobile is its limited size airport.  In many cases people have to fly into Pensacola Airport or New Orleans.

[tidecat]

2 hours ago, CruiseHealing said:

Another issue for Mobile is its limited size airport.  In many cases people have to fly into Pensacola Airport or New Orleans.

Agreed, it doesn't help, especially now Southwest has pulled out of Pensacola.

 

Mobile is starting to relocate the airport. It may take a decade or more to fully transition all commercial air traffic to Brookley, but it will work out better in the long run.

 

The question will be is if cruising eventually grows enough in the next 6-10 years to justify putting a ship in Mobile that carries 45% or more passengers (at double occupancy). If Carnival exits Mobile, and parts with all of thr ships that can service Tampa, this could mean that there would be no embarkation ports on the Gulf Coast east of New Orleans. But I still think that point is 10-12 years out.

Edited August 27, 2020 by tidecat

[xDisconnections]

5 hours ago, PhillyFan33579 said:

What’s so exciting about Mardi Gras? From what I have seen and read, it seems like they are copying a lot of ideas that RCI implemented in their ships over 10 years ago. I also don’t understand the enthusiasm for Bolt. As a roller coaster enthusiast who has travelled around the country to ride roller coasters from Great Adventure on the East coast to Magic Mountain on the West coast, the thought of riding Bolt does not excite me. However, it is a different concept at sea, so I give credit to Carnival for that. 
 

There are still a lot of people out there (I am not one of them) that prefer smaller ships. That is one of the advantages Carnival has over RCI. RCI Voyager class ships, which are now all in the 20 years old range, or bigger than Carnival’s Vista class ships, which are currently their largest ships. Of course this will change when Mardi Gras begins sailing. 
 

Carnival’s focus over the last several years has been on the new or inexperienced cruiser. It is a strategy that was working very well prior to this current virus. If I was Carnival, my concern would be will this same group of people continue to book cruises in the future. Obviously people who are active on this site are going to keep on cruising sooner or later. However, the media has done a good job of portraying cruise ships as extremely dangerous during this pandemic. I have heard from numerous co-workers and neighbors who have never been on a cruise say they would never go on a cruise now or in the future. If that is a common belief across the country, it would have a significant impact on the target audience Carnival is trying to attract. 

Ehh, what could I say... I like the color of the ship's hull and the fact they are trying something different 🙂 

[BlerkOne]

5 hours ago, PhillyFan33579 said:

Carnival’s focus over the last several years has been on the new or inexperienced cruiser. It is a strategy that was working very well prior to this current virus. If I was Carnival, my concern would be will this same group of people continue to book cruises in the future. Obviously people who are active on this site are going to keep on cruising sooner or later. However, the media has done a good job of portraying cruise ships as extremely dangerous during this pandemic. I have heard from numerous co-workers and neighbors who have never been on a cruise say they would never go on a cruise now or in the future. If that is a common belief across the country, it would have a significant impact on the target audience Carnival is trying to attract. 

 

Carnival's focus has always been novice cruisers, typically a younger crowd. It has expanded more in recent years to include gamblers. There is no shortage of either and both are risk takers.

[SmogMonster]

6 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

 

Carnival's focus has always been novice cruisers, typically a younger crowd. It has expanded more in recent years to include gamblers. There is no shortage of either and both are risk takers.

Not sure I agree with this.  I think that Carnival has focused on providing a product that is more affordable.  A natural byproduct of that would be novice cruisers so it might seem that a large percentage of cruisers are novice.  They definitely target a younger crowd which never bothered me.  

[pc_load_letter]

1 hour ago, SmogMonster said:

Not sure I agree with this.  I think that Carnival has focused on providing a product that is more affordable.  A natural byproduct of that would be novice cruisers so it might seem that a large percentage of cruisers are novice.  They definitely target a younger crowd which never bothered me.  

 

I do not believe novice cruisers to be necessarily young. I would actually argue the opposite. The older folks that I know that take cruises (for the first time) do so because they've grown tired of multiple flights, booking tours, meal reservations\finding dining, tour groups etc when on a traditional land based tour. (granted you do that on a ship to but it's much much easier to navigate)

 

As I've always espoused, cruising is like Costco, one stop shopping. It's all there for you and you just need to show up. This is what is attractive to most first time cruisers. 

 

When my wife and I were in our late 20's and into our 30's, we bounced around Europe on trains, cars, buses etc. It was great. Now, we just prefer to take a cruise and have it all there ready to go. 

[BlerkOne]

1 hour ago, SmogMonster said:

Not sure I agree with this.  I think that Carnival has focused on providing a product that is more affordable.  A natural byproduct of that would be novice cruisers so it might seem that a large percentage of cruisers are novice.  They definitely target a younger crowd which never bothered me.  

 

Chicken vs. Egg, Egg vs Chicken.

 

Carnival knows the market of people who have never cruised is larger than the market of people who have cruised.

 

Focus on affordable vs Focus on anti-snob

 

It's all relative.

[BlerkOne]

10 minutes ago, pc_load_letter said:

 

I do not believe novice cruisers to be necessarily young. I would actually argue the opposite. The older folks that I know that take cruises (for the first time) do so because they've grown tired of multiple flights, booking tours, meal reservations\finding dining, tour groups etc when on a traditional land based tour. (granted you do that on a ship to but it's much much easier to navigate)

 

As I've always espoused, cruising is like Costco, one stop shopping. It's all there for you and you just need to show up. This is what is attractive to most first time cruisers. 

 

When my wife and I were in our late 20's and into our 30's, we bounced around Europe on trains, cars, buses etc. It was great. Now, we just prefer to take a cruise and have it all there ready to go. 

 

No, but you won't find Carnival in the Top 10 cruise lines for seniors. The novice cruise market is enormous and still mostly untapped.

[pc_load_letter]

5 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

 

No, but you won't find Carnival in the Top 10 cruise lines for seniors. The novice cruise market is enormous and still mostly untapped.

 

Sure, Carnival is surely no Holland and I'm sure as hell glad they don't go that way.

 

Not sure what you mean by novice cruise market is enormous. That's basically the general population or perhaps anyone over 25. Judging by how full the Carnival Inspirationa and Imagination always were out of Long Beach, I think they're doing a pretty good job of tapping it. Will be interesting to see if Carnival can keep the prices attractive with Imagination\Inspiration gone and Radiance and perhaps Miracle taking their place. Sure, they're bigger and nicer ships but for four days cruises, I hope the prices don't skyrocket

 

I would say the harder venture is getting economy minded cruises to pony up for more expensive cruises. Price is king. Look at the people who still fill Spirit and Frontier flights. They're abysmal airlines but they're still full.

[jimbo5544]

3 hours ago, pc_load_letter said:

 

Sure, Carnival is surely no Holland and I'm sure as hell glad they don't go that way.

 

Not sure what you mean by novice cruise market is enormous. That's basically the general population or perhaps anyone over 25. Judging by how full the Carnival Inspirationa and Imagination always were out of Long Beach, I think they're doing a pretty good job of tapping it. Will be interesting to see if Carnival can keep the prices attractive with Imagination\Inspiration gone and Radiance and perhaps Miracle taking their place. Sure, they're bigger and nicer ships but for four days cruises, I hope the prices don't skyrocket

 

I would say the harder venture is getting economy minded cruises to pony up for more expensive cruises. Price is king. Look at the people who still fill Spirit and Frontier flights. They're abysmal airlines but they're still full.

I am sure you do know that Carnival owns HAL.  Did you also know that the average age of a carnival cruiser is 54.

[pc_load_letter]

3 minutes ago, jimbo5544 said:

I am sure you do know that Carnival owns HAL.  Did you also know that the average age of a carnival cruiser is 54.

 

Both are irrelevant to the discussion with BlerkOne.

 

Never the less, this would disprove your point on CCL average age...https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/591476-average-age-of-passengers-by-cruise-line/

 

 

[jimbo5544]

7 minutes ago, pc_load_letter said:

 

Both are irrelevant to the discussion with BlerkOne.

 

Never the less, this would disprove your point on CCL average age...https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/591476-average-age-of-passengers-by-cruise-line/

 

 

Whatever you say, the quoted post proves absolutely nothing.  I speak from knowledge, but have a good day.  

[pc_load_letter]

2 minutes ago, jimbo5544 said:

I speak from knowledge

 

lol...

 

Me old man....I speak from knowledge....gruff gruff gruff

[jimbo5544]

1 hour ago, pc_load_letter said:

 

lol...

 

Me old man....I speak from knowledge....gruff gruff gruff

All facts....

[Jamman54]

1 hour ago, jimbo5544 said:

All facts....

I agree. I've been on several Journeys cruises where you would be hard pressed to find someone as young as 45. 😀Overall I would say that the average age on a Carnival cruise is about 45 to 55 depending on the length of the cruise. 

[THIS IS US!]

Will there be three ships in Long Beach? Would love it if both the Imagination and Inspiration get a replacement.

Edited August 28, 2020 by THIS IS US!
Spellcheck

[tidecat]

37 minutes ago, THIS IS US! said:

Will there be three ships in Long Beach? Would love it if both the Imagination and Inspiration get a replacement.

You obviously missed the announcement. Imagination and Inspiration were removed from service and both ships' itineraries were consolidated onto the Radiance. Inspiration is sitting on a beach in Aliağa, Turkey being scrapped, and while not officially announced, Imagination appears to be headed to Aliağa for scrapping as well.

[THIS IS US!]

26 minutes ago, tidecat said:

You obviously missed the announcement. Imagination and Inspiration were removed from service and both ships' itineraries were consolidated onto the Radiance. Inspiration is sitting on a beach in Aliağa, Turkey being scrapped, and while not officially announced, Imagination appears to be headed to Aliağa for scrapping as well.

Thanks I missed that there would only be the Radiance, bummer. It was fun to take both. 
 I definitely didn’t miss the announcement that they were being scrapped because I was booked on the Imagination twice and got a surprise that my two quick cruises were canceled . I am now on the Radiance and the Panorama for next year so it worked out in my favor. 

[jimbo5544]

On 8/26/2020 at 11:55 PM, tidecat said:

The only thing we can be reasonably sure of was Fantasy was most certainly a goner in January 2022, when the Fascination was set to reposition to Mobile.

 

Unless if Carnival was willing to return to San Juan later in 2022, I would suspect Ecstasy was likely a goner near the end of 2022 as well simply due to being 31 years old and due for drydock, and the Sensation or Elation would have likely taken over in Jacksonville. It's also possible Imagination gets the boot in 2022 instead of Ecstasy as she would have been due for drydock as well.

 

It's also possible Inspiration could have been retired in 2021 instead of being sent to drydock, in which case I think you see the redeployment of Radiance to Long Beach take place. Imagination would likely just sail alongside Sensation in Miami, or replaced Sunrise in Fort Lauderdale before being retired in 2022 (and Ecstasy likely lives another 2.5 years)

 

So even in the most aggressive scenario, you have 3 ships leaving by December 2022: Fantasy, Inspiration, and Imagination (or Ecstasy).

 

Since Carnival doesn't have anything on order after Celebration, we can't really extrapolate too much.  But if you assume a new ship every two years, we are likely saying goodbye to Sensation in late 2024 to avoid a January 2025 drydock. Ecstasy, Inspiration, and Imagination bow out in 2024 if they haven't already.

 

Fascination likely doesn't get retired until 2026. At this point Mobile has to step up to at least Spirit class, if not Conquest class. This could also mean a larger ship in San Diego or Sydney.

 

Elation and Paradise may survive 2028, depending on what the plans are for a 32-year old Carnival Sunshine, and new ports in Tampa, Jacksonville, and/or Baltimore.  It's possible Sunshine bows out here instead of a Fantasy-class ship if Carnival finds themselves the proud new owner of a vessel in excess of 150,000 tons. By sometime in the 2030s, the Elation and Paradise, though, inevitably meet the same fate.

Wow, you spent some time going thru your ‘vision’.   Sunshine is not going anywhere, and Mobile is def not getting a Spirit class ship.  Carnival would certainly be doing a happy dance if they got to 2030 with any Fantasy class ships.  

[jimbo5544]

10 hours ago, Jamman54 said:

I agree. I've been on several Journeys cruises where you would be hard pressed to find someone as young as 45. 😀Overall I would say that the average age on a Carnival cruise is about 45 to 55 depending on the length of the cruise. 

It depends when we sail to get a perspective on our fellow cruisers.  Our first Journey cruise, my guess is that the average age was late 60’s.   We have done spring break ones where it might have been 35.  All that said, it is not all that important. Would love to repeat our Journey cruise on Breeze, it ranks high on our past cruise list.  

[xDisconnections]

14 hours ago, Jamman54 said:

I agree. I've been on several Journeys cruises where you would be hard pressed to find someone as young as 45. 😀Overall I would say that the average age on a Carnival cruise is about 45 to 55 depending on the length of the cruise. 

 

3 hours ago, jimbo5544 said:

It depends when we sail to get a perspective on our fellow cruisers.  Our first Journey cruise, my guess is that the average age was late 60’s.   We have done spring break ones where it might have been 35.  All that said, it is not all that important. Would love to repeat our Journey cruise on Breeze, it ranks high on our past cruise list.  

No surprise there. Most of my peers can’t take off that long for work or even afford a vacation like that. I’m usually one of the youngest passengers onboard my Princess cruises that are 10+ days and that was the same on the Carnival Magic Transatlantic 9 years ago.