Realistically, how long does it take to get a ship ready to sail?

[phoenix_dream]

17 hours ago, Tapi said:

Although the logistics may seem unsurmountable and mind boggling, I bet that the cruise lines have already done a lot of the legwork, have a lot of things ready to go, and  crew members on standby, waiting on the green light to report for their assignment. I can assure you that there’s a lot going on behind the scenes that we don’t know about. 

I absolutely agree.  At this point, there has to be very much going on behind the scenes.  Just because the public doesn't know all the details doesn't mean the cruise line execs and government execs aren't in communication behind the scenes regularly.  We hear about the big meetings; we do not hear about the day to day interactions.  I have to believe that even as I write this the cruise lines have a very good idea of when they realistically can begin their cruises and are planning accordingly.  And the fact that cases are surging again cannot be news to them or the CDC, as this has been predicted for months.  The cruise lines already have a good idea of the kind of changes they will need to make onboard and I have to believe they are busy gearing up.  Whether they sail in December or March, most if not all of the changes will still be required.  Unless they fear complete bankruptcy, any CEO worth their salary will be well on their way with their plans.

[Gracie115]

56 minutes ago, phoenix_dream said:

Without being specific, can you give us an idea how far up in the food chain this contact is?  Is it someone who would honestly have a good idea of what is happening?  I have an upcoming sailing on Connie and while I suspect what you are indicating is true, any more valid information regarding the possibility of her sailing might help me convince DH once and for all to lift and shift like I've been trying to get him to do for awhile now🙂

 

He has worked with Celebrity for many years in the corporate office, I believe he does have a good idea of what is happening.  His information is that they are going to bring back the 2 new ones first...which really only makes sense....  I have enough faith in his information that we cancelled our Infinity cruise for early 2021 and based on what he said have grave doubts that our Reflection TA in April will sail.  

[Arizona Wildcat]

3 hours ago, TeeRick said:

All true.  It is possible that the date changes after the election depending on the outcome.  But let's say the No Sail expires the end of this week.  Who can say whether the CDC will put it back in place at a later date?  Why do we think that once it expires it will never come back?  The virus surge, the outcome of vaccine trials, the election in the US will all be variables to watch closely.  

I was trying not to be quite that political.  Depending on the election results if Covid numbers continue their current trend a no sail order certainly could be reinstated given that the CDC weeks ago wanted February.  

[jelayne]

6 hours ago, Gracie115 said:

 

My contact at Celebrity states that Edge & Apex will be the first to come back, which makes sense...bring back the newest, brightest first!  He also stated ships like Infinity & Connie will probably be last to be brought back...also makes sense to me since they are the oldest, non renovated X ships. 

 

This matches what  Lisa said awhile back.  Since they are the most efficient to operate it make sense to start them first. 

[Gracie115]

48 minutes ago, jelayne said:

This matches what  Lisa said awhile back.  Since they are the most efficient to operate it make sense to start them first. 

 

And they are the newest, the ones with all the "tech" bells & whistles to try to interest new as well as old cruisers.  We've not had an interested in sailing on the Edge class prior to Covid....now I'd GLADLY sail on them just to get out to sea!

Edited October 25, 2020 by Gracie115

[wrk2cruise]

1 hour ago, Gracie115 said:

 

And they are the newest, the ones with all the "tech" bells & whistles to try to interest new as well as old cruisers.  We've not had an interested in sailing on the Edge class prior to Covid....now I'd GLADLY sail on them just to get out to sea!

They probably have the most opportunity to generate onboard revenue as well.   Way more suites than other ships too.   It's going to be all about $/passenger generated.

Edited October 25, 2020 by wrk2cruise

[Gracie115]

12 hours ago, wrk2cruise said:

They probably have the most opportunity to generate onboard revenue as well.   Way more suites than other ships too.   It's going to be all about $/passenger generated.

 

Exactly!!!

[chengkp75]

The time frame depends on a whole lot of factors.

1.  Will the CDC lift the no sail order, or will they transform the requirements of the no sail order into federal regulations that are permanent?

2.  What will be acceptable remediation measures to the CDC, and what does that entail as far as installing new equipment onboard?

3.  What are the travel restrictions coming from the crew's home countries, and those countries they may need to travel through.

4.  What is the status of the individual crew member's documentation?  Do they have a US crew visa?

5.  As for provisions, some of the traditional supply chain has been rerouted from wholesale supply (Sysco to the ships) to retail, and that may impact supply chain availabilities.

6.  Taking out all of the above, which are all basically covid problems, to take a cruise ship that has been in warm lay-up for a couple of months to full operating status will be 4-6 weeks, a figure I've held all along.

7.  There will also be statutory requirements, if things like drydockings have been postponed, which can add a week or so to the time frame.

8.  Things like USPH inspections are not mandatory, but would be expected, but would not have a significant effect on readiness time.

9.  As for crew standing by, while this is probably true (notices of potential employment going out), the crew are not being paid during this "stand by" time, so if a better offer comes along, there is no guarantee of crew availability.

[LouChamp]

just a note to thank you for your practical non political expertise across all the boards.

[cruisestitch]

I second that .... thank you chengkp75.....that’s the kind of information I was hoping to read !

[LDEE]

On 10/24/2020 at 3:04 PM, cruisestitch said:

I am hoping that Cheng75 or Someone else with knowledge of logistics can give us some ideas here.

 

I am thinking of such issues as getting all the crew on board.  They have to be hired, trained, their visas and work papers arranged, then transported to the cruise port, all tests passed, and ready to safely operate the ship. 

 

Then there is the question of getting all food stuffs on board?   I should think that restocking the bars would be pretty easy, but all the food must be brought aboard, inventoried and stored.  kitchen staff will need to be trained.  Health inspections will need to be performed.  
 

Realistically, how long would it take to get a ship ready to sail?

 

The CEO of NCL claims they need 60 days to return a vessel to service.

[phoenix_dream]

1 hour ago, LDEE said:

The CEO of NCL claims they need 60 days to return a vessel to service.

Sounds reasonable.  But we don't know when that 60 days starts.  A lot could be happening right now and we would not be aware.

[ORV]

I believe that NCL has two of their big ships parked in Manila just waiting to fill them up with employees and distribute them where they need to be. This is according to a webinair I saw the other day with FDR. I think he mentioned a capacity of over 10,000 between the two ships. From what he said you can expect them to sail 1st Quarter 21, at 50% with limited ships. I believe the other lines will probably do something similar. 

[Seacruise]

1 hour ago, LDEE said:

The CEO of NCL claims they need 60 days to return a vessel to service.

I have maintained this 60 days since last May and I have been told I have do idea what I am talking about.
 

The first major hurdle is getting planes back into the air.
They are needed to get crew back to the ships then the passengers to the ports.
Many International flights have been cancelled since the start.
Many of my fellow pilots have been furloughed and will require to take their "type" course over again. This is roughly a 4 week process. The planes themselves have to be brought out of storage. Early on Boeing and Airbus said there is NO manual for short term storage. I suspect that they may have a better handle on it now.
Those little critters such as birds, mice, snakes and Bee's find their way into small holes that may have been missed during closeup need to be found and cleaned up.

The next hurdle is stores for the ship (Food etc). Almost all ships submit their needs roughly 85 days before sail time in normal times.
Having someone in my Family that does this gives me some idea of what it takes.
The issue is many supply companies have done major layoffs due to restaurants, football stadiums closed etc.
They just don't have the stock on hand to supply a ship right now.
Remember a supply company supplies more than one ship and or company.

All this combined with CDC and Visa's and then modifications to the ships will take time.
Not like flipping a switch and things happen.

[WestLakeGirl]

So this tells me that cruising in January is probably a pipe dream even if the CDC gives the go-ahead😢

[LGW59]

3 minutes ago, WestLakeGirl said:

So this tells me that cruising in January is probably a pipe dream even if the CDC gives the go-ahead😢

I second that emotion!!  😭😭

[phoenix_dream]

1 minute ago, WestLakeGirl said:

So this tells me that cruising in January is probably a pipe dream even if the CDC gives the go-ahead😢

I don't think that's necessarily true overall, but certainly even if cruising starts there will be very few ships going, and with short itineraries.  Seacruise raises alot of very valid points.  Still,  IMHO there is a huge difference between a very small start-up and cruising anywhere near what we used to know it as.   If cruising does indeed start on a small scale now out of the US, it will likely involve only two ships at first, very short itineraries, and low capacity rates.  So I think given all that, and the fact that cruise lines have likely been working on these details for some time now, I think it is certainly possible that some cruising may start.  In the beginning, it may be just US citizens who can drive to the port or take one of the flights that are in fact available.  Food and supplies obtaining could certainly take some creative planning, but on a small scale I think it is possible and likely already in the works.  Yes, getting crew back is a huge challenge, but there are some flights going and if they are that determined to sail again they could even charter flights from areas with larger crew populations to get them here.  I guess time will tell.

[LGW59]

1 minute ago, phoenix_dream said:

I don't think that's necessarily true overall, but certainly even if cruising starts there will be very few ships going, and with short itineraries.  Seacruise raises alot of very valid points.  Still,  IMHO there is a huge difference between a very small start-up and cruising anywhere near what we used to know it as.   If cruising does indeed start on a small scale now out of the US, it will likely involve only two ships at first, very short itineraries, and low capacity rates.  So I think given all that, and the fact that cruise lines have likely been working on these details for some time now, I think it is certainly possible that some cruising may start.  In the beginning, it may be just US citizens who can drive to the port or take one of the flights that are in fact available.  Food and supplies obtaining could certainly take some creative planning, but on a small scale I think it is possible and likely already in the works.  Yes, getting crew back is a huge challenge, but there are some flights going and if they are that determined to sail again they could even charter flights from areas with larger crew populations to get them here.  I guess time will tell.

I would think with their flagships actively out at sea, they have been doing a lot of work to prepare for re-start.  However, they can't do it all until the CDC issues further guidance on what it MUST look like.  No easy task for this industry.  The staff presently on board working are definitely earning their pay!!

[phoenix_dream]

1 minute ago, LGW59 said:

I would think with their flagships actively out at sea, they have been doing a lot of work to prepare for re-start.  However, they can't do it all until the CDC issues further guidance on what it MUST look like.  No easy task for this industry.  The staff presently on board working are definitely earning their pay!!

Agree 100%.  I certainly would not want to be a cruise line CEO right now!

[chengkp75]

17 minutes ago, LGW59 said:

I would think with their flagships actively out at sea, they have been doing a lot of work to prepare for re-start.  However, they can't do it all until the CDC issues further guidance on what it MUST look like.  No easy task for this industry.  The staff presently on board working are definitely earning their pay!!

The CDC will not issue any further "guidance", nor will they say what the safety measures "must" look like.  That is not their mandate.  Just like the co-operative formation of the VSP for sanitation, the CDC puts out what they feel are the industry "best practices" for their "industry" (infectious diseases), which they have done in the requirements of the no sail order.  Then the cruise industry has to come back and tell the CDC what can and cannot, and why, be achieved, and what, specifically, they will do to meet those requirements by using their expertise in their industry (running cruise ships), and what their "best practices" would be.  Then they can agree on compromise measures that try to meet both "best practices".

 

We've seen examples of this already.  The no sail order required that all hospitalization and quarantine be done offshore, on ships of the cruise lines.  The cruise lines came back with the Healthy Sail board's report, saying in effect that that requirement is not possible economically, and instead we support having privately contracted health care, transportation, and quarantine facilities, so we don't impact the public health care system.  What is needed now, is for the cruise lines to actually get preliminary agreements with suppliers of these services, for the cruise lines and the CDC to agree on the scale of these services that need to be in "standby" for a possible outbreak, and then for the actual contracts, corporate information, and resources contracted, to be written into a response plan.

[LGW59]

2 minutes ago, chengkp75 said:

The CDC will not issue any further "guidance", nor will they say what the safety measures "must" look like.  That is not their mandate.  Just like the co-operative formation of the VSP for sanitation, the CDC puts out what they feel are the industry "best practices" for their "industry" (infectious diseases), which they have done in the requirements of the no sail order.  Then the cruise industry has to come back and tell the CDC what can and cannot, and why, be achieved, and what, specifically, they will do to meet those requirements by using their expertise in their industry (running cruise ships), and what their "best practices" would be.  Then they can agree on compromise measures that try to meet both "best practices".

 

We've seen examples of this already.  The no sail order required that all hospitalization and quarantine be done offshore, on ships of the cruise lines.  The cruise lines came back with the Healthy Sail board's report, saying in effect that that requirement is not possible economically, and instead we support having privately contracted health care, transportation, and quarantine facilities, so we don't impact the public health care system.  What is needed now, is for the cruise lines to actually get preliminary agreements with suppliers of these services, for the cruise lines and the CDC to agree on the scale of these services that need to be in "standby" for a possible outbreak, and then for the actual contracts, corporate information, and resources contracted, to be written into a response plan.

Very informative information and as a Chief Engineer, you would clearly know from whence you speak.  Thank you for this!!!

[Algebralovr]

A friend in the know told me last week that Apex has a nearly complete crew.  They needed substantial crew to do shake down he said, and test everything completely.  While they may not have full hotel side, apparently they have a full marine side, along with substantial hotel side.
 

A couple of people I correspond with said they received email from their schedules asking for their status:  desire to come back, if their passport, visa and certificates were in order.   They are  ready.  Tired of being at home, and not able to find a job locally that will provide similar compensation.  Even in Europe, they can’t find jobs where they will earn what they do on board.  
 

I’m expecting my holiday cruise to be canceled any day, though.