Moderna Covid Vaccine 94.5% Effective

[xpcdoojk]

2 hours ago, Ourusualbeach said:

Did everyone in both groups still practice social distancing and wearing masks?

 

If so then that's 5 people still caught it while taking all the current precautions....still not good and makes you wonder what the numbers would be if people with the vaccine resume normal routines.

How would we even know?  That was my point about statistics.  They are making all of this headlining news based on 95 people, because we can’t know anything about their actions or the actions of the other 29,905 people in the tests.  IE some people literally don’t leave their homes and live alone.  The chances of them contracting the virus are something close to .000000001%.  Who knows?

 

As I mentioned earlier, I will take the vaccine when I can.  I hope that we can try to return to normal, but I don’t think the press will let us return to normal because they love to keep us all afraid of everything.  JMHO and YMMV.

 

jc

[xpcdoojk]

1 hour ago, Domino D said:

Yeah this is my question.  Were they purposely exposed to people who had the virus?  Were they put in high exposure areas?  Did they stop using masks and shake hands with everyone they met?  How do they know these people were exposed?  Unless I'm just missing something, 30,000 people is not much of a test.  

 

I would have thought the test would be levels of antibodies in their blood work, and that the efficacy would be seeing high enough levels to produce immunity. 

 

I don’t know how they are operating the tests, just what they have released to the press.  I am sure that some people are having antibody tests, but how can they tell if they have antibodies from the vaccine or from actually contracting Covid19?

 

I think we can confidently extract that the vaccine is effective the 90 to 5 numbers are pretty convincing to me that it is actually protecting people.  That said.  Would it protect you if you were stuck in a room with 5 Covid19 positive people for an hour?  That is the true real world test that we all would like to know it would work in.  

 

JC

[Ourusualbeach]

9 minutes ago, xpcdoojk said:

How would we even know?  That was my point about statistics.  They are making all of this headlining news based on 95 people, because we can’t know anything about their actions or the actions of the other 29,905 people in the tests.  IE some people literally don’t leave their homes and live alone.  The chances of them contracting the virus are something close to .000000001%.  Who knows?

 

As I mentioned earlier, I will take the vaccine when I can.  I hope that we can try to return to normal, but I don’t think the press will let us return to normal because they love to keep us all afraid of everything.  JMHO and YMMV.

 

jc

Agreed

[NateUpNorth]

3 hours ago, Ourusualbeach said:

Yes, however most countries were buying from many different suppliers as they did not know which if any would be successful.  They have not overbought from any one supplier. 

 

Agreed, however they're up to 76 million doses from Moderna/Pfizer on a population of 38 million.... with an option on 186 million more from other companies (Sanofi, Johnson & Johnson, Novavax.)

 

So they're pretty close to being excessively over-purchased if one of the other companies joins the "success group", and knowing the way we do things there's probably no cancellation policies... LOL

[Ourusualbeach]

7 minutes ago, NateUpNorth said:

 

Agreed, however they're up to 76 million doses from Moderna/Pfizer on a population of 38 million.... with an option on 186 million more from other companies (Sanofi, Johnson & Johnson, Novavax.)

 

So they're pretty close to being excessively over-purchased if one of the other companies joins the "success group", and knowing the way we do things there's probably no cancellation policies... LOL

Have they purchased all of those with firm offers or do they have escape clauses?  If not then definitely over purchased.

[firefly333]

1 hour ago, nelblu said:

I'm a senior and I'll wait.  On the plus side, I've got type O blood and got my flu senior shot.😄

Me too, I was just hoping to get it before my april 25th cruise but not too close.

 

Our news interviewed the fire chief who was in a study and he had a low grade fever for the next day, so I dont want the vaccine too close to my cruise, I want time to build up antibodies and get over immediate reactions to the vaccine shot.

 

I'm another who is scared of needles, but I'm more scared of getting covid and giving it to my folks.

[NateUpNorth]

5 minutes ago, Ourusualbeach said:

Have they purchased all of those with firm offers or do they have escape clauses?  If not then definitely over purchased.

 

I like to think they have escape clauses, but it's government, who knows! LOL
I do know some of the $$$ was sent over already to front the research/testing parts.

Regardless just hoping for a successful vaccine and rollout to as many people worldwide as possible!

[Sunshine3601]

21 hours ago, Ourusualbeach said:

I am on immuno-suppressant medication which I believe is similar to medications that transplant recipients receive so there may be similarities.    I can get any of the vaccines that are available EXCEPT any of the live virus vaccines and my Dr's recommend that I get the vaccines.  Always check with your specialist.

Hi Ken,   I did find the print out from my DH's transplant team.   The Infectious Disease doc had said he could get the Shingrix shot but would need in 2 parts spaced 6 months apart.   She also went on to say there is a shortage of that shot and no pharmacies local to us have in stock.   She did not feel that shot was a priority shot for him to get and left it at - "Don't worry about it and maybe next year we would revisit."

[Domino D]

2 hours ago, firefly333 said:

Idk about where you are, but I tried to volunteer but they were only taking front line workers or minorities and I was turned down. You had to be continually exposed to the public to qualify for the vaccine study here.

Thanks for sharing that.  This makes sense. 

[firefly333]

8 minutes ago, Domino D said:

Thanks for sharing that.  This makes sense. 

Yes that's what our news said

 

I tried anyway, asked race and age, then how many times a week do you interact with the public.. boom, immediately went to a sorry we have no studies you qualify for at this time. Idk how many times a week you needed to qualify. 

[Ourusualbeach]

32 minutes ago, Sunshine3601 said:

Hi Ken,   I did find the print out from my DH's transplant team.   The Infectious Disease doc had said he could get the Shingrix shot but would need in 2 parts spaced 6 months apart.   She also went on to say there is a shortage of that shot and no pharmacies local to us have in stock.   She did not feel that shot was a priority shot for him to get and left it at - "Don't worry about it and maybe next year we would revisit."

That's good news.  It looks like his meds will allow him to be ablle to get at least one of the Covid vaccines that are being developed.

[zdcatc12]

4 hours ago, xpcdoojk said:

 

This is absolutely true, but does everyone realize based on the raw numbers of Moderna study, that 15,000 people got the placebo shots and only 90 of them got Covid during the test period.  So, it would seem that getting no shot was 99.4% effective.  Statistics are awesome and so easy to manipulate.  

 

The other side of the study where the 94.5% comes from is that of the 15000 who actually got the vaccine 5 of them got Covid.  So, it was 18 times less likely to get Covid.

 

That said, I was shocked at how few of the 30,000 test individuals actually developed Covid. Which makes me a bit skeptical about the claims.  I would still take the shots if they offered it to me.  

 

jc

I am in the Pfizer study and we were told that the only way to know if it is working is for people on the placebo to catch it. I was surprised that they had less than 100 people catch it and released the findings, but I don't know what the usual requirement is for a vaccine study.

[zdcatc12]

3 hours ago, Domino D said:

Yeah this is my question.  Were they purposely exposed to people who had the virus?  Were they put in high exposure areas?  Did they stop using masks and shake hands with everyone they met?  How do they know these people were exposed?  Unless I'm just missing something, 30,000 people is not much of a test.  

For the Pfizer study, we were told to continue practicing what we had been practicing and go about our daily life. There were no requirements to attend a superspreader event or anything like that.

[zdcatc12]

3 hours ago, firefly333 said:

Idk about where you are, but I tried to volunteer but they were only taking front line workers or minorities and I was turned down. You had to be continually exposed to the public to qualify for the vaccine study here. I took the questionnaire and heard comments on our news, like ok follow the link, but right now they need more minorities etc. I was told sorry, I wasnt in enough contact with others. Darn. I tried a few times. Last study they only took seniors with symptoms, didnt qualify again.

 

Lol been trying to get into a study.

What study was this? I am in San Antonio and got in on the Pfizer trial. Our only requirement was that we get out into the public at least three times a week at grocery stores, resturants, etc. This was done by Clinical Studies of TX.

[Sunshine3601]

3 hours ago, firefly333 said:

Idk about where you are, but I tried to volunteer but they were only taking front line workers or minorities and I was turned down. You had to be continually exposed to the public to qualify for the vaccine study here. I took the questionnaire and heard comments on our news, like ok follow the link, but right now they need more minorities etc. I was told sorry, I wasnt in enough contact with others. Darn. I tried a few times. Last study they only took seniors with symptoms, didnt qualify again.

 

Lol been trying to get into a study.

I had initially read earlier this summer they wanted to have people from all different races, ages and even some high risk people for the study so maybe when you volunteered they already had your particular age group, race filled up??    

 

End of May / early June I had received at least 2 emails and phone call(s) asking if I wanted to volunteer.   I am not sure which company it was for but I had declined as I couldn't risk having an issue since I have an high risk hubby.

[firefly333]

29 minutes ago, zdcatc12 said:

What study was this? I am in San Antonio and got in on the Pfizer trial. Our only requirement was that we get out into the public at least three times a week at grocery stores, resturants, etc. This was done by Clinical Studies of TX.

Ahhh, 3 times a week. I probably answered 1 time so that's why I didnt qualify. So 3 was the magic answer. 

[xpcdoojk]

47 minutes ago, zdcatc12 said:

I am in the Pfizer study and we were told that the only way to know if it is working is for people on the placebo to catch it. I was surprised that they had less than 100 people catch it and released the findings, but I don't know what the usual requirement is for a vaccine study.

 

I don’t think anything is “usual” in 2020.  I know they are operating under an emergency status, so I would imagine that means less subjects is acceptable.  

 

As an economist, I am always amazed by reactions of people and markets based on information.  In this case less than 100 people have caused a stock market spike, and changed the outlook of millions.  Not horribly rational.  

 

JC

[Mikew0805]

10 hours ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

Do you not admit that much of the red tape was removed so that we would have a vaccine in record time?  I’m pretty sure we promised to buy x amount of vaccines for x amount of dollars. How could that not have helped?

 

M8

Of course it motivated, but credit all around... I think even without the OWS there was no way this vaccine would not come out in record time. Everyone will make money. (read: pharmaceutical vaccine manufacturers)

[ptod]

3 hours ago, zdcatc12 said:

I am in the Pfizer study and we were told that the only way to know if it is working is for people on the placebo to catch it. I was surprised that they had less than 100 people catch it and released the findings, but I don't know what the usual requirement is for a vaccine study.

 

The FDA sets the thresholds for the number of cases needed in a trial before data is gathered/released.  In the current race for a vaccine, 90ish is the first threshold.  Next data release happens when about 160 people in the study catch the virus.  Therefore, the efficacy of the vaccine can still go up or down before the shot is given the go ahead and released to the public.

[BND]

4 hours ago, Sunshine3601 said:

Hi Ken,   I did find the print out from my DH's transplant team.   The Infectious Disease doc had said he could get the Shingrix shot but would need in 2 parts spaced 6 months apart.   She also went on to say there is a shortage of that shot and no pharmacies local to us have in stock.   She did not feel that shot was a priority shot for him to get and left it at - "Don't worry about it and maybe next year we would revisit."

The Shringrix shot is two shots for everyone spaced 2-6 months apart.

[BND]

8 hours ago, xpcdoojk said:

Sure, but 99.4% of the people without antibodies, didn’t get the disease which is the purpose of the vaccine.  

 

5 people still got the disease while getting the shots.

 

On the upside, the ones who got really sick were in the placebo group.  

 

JC

The original idea was that the vaccine would at least lessen the symptoms so people wouldn't need hospitalization, which this obviously overachieved.  Those who caught it with the vaccine had mild symptoms.  It's pretty much what the flu vaccine does too.  Even if you catch the flu after getting the vaccine, symptoms are lessened, shortened and it helps prevent secondary infection which is the real danger with the flu.  Covid vaccine appears to do the same.  

Edited November 17, 2020 by BND

[Sunshine3601]

11 minutes ago, BND said:

The Shringrix shot is two shots for everyone spaced 2-6 months apart.

yes, his doc said he would have to do 6 months apart due to him being a transplant recipient - rules change on just about everything for him. 

[BND]

Just now, Sunshine3601 said:

yes, his doc said he would have to do 6 months apart due to him being a transplant recipient - rules change on just about everything for him. 

My point was it's always two shots.  You just can't go more than 6 months or it doesn't work properly.

[Sunshine3601]

4 minutes ago, BND said:

My point was it's always two shots.  You just can't go more than 6 months or it doesn't work properly.

Yes, understand.   Thank you!

[xpcdoojk]

Pfizer finally released their updated results.  44,000 in the test all over 18 years of age no pregnant women.  50/50 split of vaccine and placebo 162 placebo positive 8 vaccine positive. (Positive means they exhibited 1 or more symptoms of Covid19).

 

Pretty much the same statistically as Moderna.

 

jc