Hate to see this...

[marieps]

The same Wall Street analyst who correctly predicted in July that cruising was toast for the remainder of 2020 now says restart is most likely happening in Q4 2021, maybe even Q1 2022.

 

 I can't paste the article, but can provide a link.

 

https://www.barrons.com/articles/u-s-cruises-not-likely-to-resume-until-fourth-quarter-or-early-2022-analyst-says-51611330470

[tfred]

paywall

[marieps]

Just now, tfred said:

paywall

Weird.  I got through using Barron's search engine, and I do not subscribe.  I searched the guy's name, C. Patrick Scholes.     

[Oceangoer2]

1 minute ago, marieps said:

Weird.  I got through using Barron's search engine, and I do not subscribe.  I searched the guy's name, C. Patrick Scholes.     

I had no problem simply using Firefox.  Bad news but expected.  Hopefully Nov. '21 will go.

[phoenix_dream]

I was able to read the article on first try.  When I read the paywall post I tried again, and lo and behold I was then put behind a paywall.

[marieps]

I have a Summit in June.  I'm hoping with 7 days and only one port it may be the first type of itinerary to go.  Paid for it with FCCs, so it's gonna be another hassle if it cancels.

[Jeremiah1212]

I think that projection is more likely to be accurate than not. 

The bigger question, even if the CDC allows US cruises, where are the ships going? I just cannot foresee these tiny islands feeling as they have their own population in a safe space then allowing a 3,000+ passenger ship to unload passengers unless everyone is vaccinated. 

[ScubesDad]

I had no issues reading the article, as mentioned above I am using Firefox.

 

I agree with the projection, and even feel Q421 may be overly optimistic.

 

Many things need to change before cruising can resume.  I received an update from Cathay Pacific (loyalty programme) regarding new entry requirements for Hong Kong and they require a 21 day quarantine period for all passengers arriving from North America. Also, changes to the requirements for transiting through HKG.  I would expect once the vaccination programmes roll out and the anticipated positive effects are observed then restrictions will be withdrawn/reduced.

[marieps]

I wish the new president great success in his new vaccination initiatives.  That's not a political statement...just a hopeful one.

[PTC DAWG]

2 minutes ago, marieps said:

I wish the new president great success in his new vaccination initiatives.  That's not a political statement...just a hopeful one.

The vaccine was out there before this POTUS took office...not a political statement.  Just fact.  

 

I just hope it works, and we don't have to walk around looking like bank robbers the rest of our lives.  

[SeaHunt]

17 minutes ago, ScubesDad said:

Many things need to change before cruising can resume.  I received an update from Cathay Pacific (loyalty programme) regarding new entry requirements for Hong Kong and they require a 21 day quarantine period for all passengers arriving from North America. Also, changes to the requirements for transiting through HKG.  I would expect once the vaccination programmes roll out and the anticipated positive effects are observed then restrictions will be withdrawn/reduced.

 

This statement from the New Zealand PM regarding their border closure sounds as if they might remain closed this year (except to those in their travel "bubble" Australia and the Pacific):

 

'Too great a risk': PM says borders likely to remain closed for 2021"

 

New Zealand's border personnel will be vaccinated against Covid-19 within three weeks of the first immunisation shipment reaching our shores, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says.

But the country's borders are likely to remain closed to most of the world for the rest of the year, as reopening them poses "too great a risk to our health and economy".

 

https://www.odt.co.nz/star-news/star-national/too-great-risk-pm-says-borders-likely-remain-closed-2021

 

 

 

[hcat]

When we "accepted " a lift and shift for January 2022, Reflection/ Caribbean, we did not think we would be still  be wondering if it would sail or if there would be any  itin changes...fewer days,  fewer ports .  Guess things will be uncertain for quite awhile.  

Edited January 27, 2021 by hcat

[Mr. Click]

I only wish that Celebrity would move more quickly on these cancelations so we can figure out out own future.  Our lifted and shifted Oct 2021 cruise from Venice is already gone and I even got the refund on the deposit this week but last I looked they are still planning and taking bookings for the Panama Canal in Sept 2021 despite it being well outside of CDC guidelines.....Not really thrilled at the idea of spending 16 nights on a ship that is supposed to sail from LA to FLL.  I just hope any pray that this vaccine program gets back on track quickly.  The new guy has made it a priority and the vaccines are being made, now lets them them shipped.  Oh, the link worked for me, I just had to click the x in the upper right to get past the subscribe now. The rest of the article was right there.

[goofysmom99]

I think the pax will eventually be vaccinated but how does the entire crew get the vaccine?  They come from countries that may have limited access so then how does Celebrity sponsor the purchase of vaccine for all personnel?  I'm guessing the stevedores and all personnel with whom X would deal ashore would have to be vaccinated (think CDC says you can have vaccine and still pass the virus).  So many variables it makes my head spin.

[marieps]

3 hours ago, PTC DAWG said:

The vaccine was out there before this POTUS took office...not a political statement.  Just fact.  

 

I just hope it works, and we don't have to walk around looking like bank robbers the rest of our lives.  

I'm with you, friend from Fayette County.  Just saying I hope the new guy lives up to the promises...vaccine-wise.

 

 

 

[cl.klink]

7 hours ago, marieps said:

The same Wall Street analyst who correctly predicted in July that cruising was toast for the remainder of 2020 now says restart is most likely happening in Q4 2021, maybe even Q1 2022.

 

 I can't paste the article, but can provide a link.

 

https://www.barrons.com/articles/u-s-cruises-not-likely-to-resume-until-fourth-quarter-or-early-2022-analyst-says-51611330470

 

I think this is likely to be what occurs. There will be fits and spurts of starting up possibly in the last few months of this year, or early next year, and then lurching forward with progressive more cruise activity as 2022 limps along.

 

The virus will be with us in one form or another for some time. We just have to get better at avoiding it, limiting it, handling the increasingly fewer times it happens with increasingly less disease from it.

 

At least this is not a worsening in this mess, and instead, some amount of progress.

 

- Joel

[drakes2]

5 minutes ago, cl.klink said:

 

I think this is likely to be what occurs. There will be fits and spurts of starting up possibly in the last few months of this year, or early next year, and then lurching forward with progressive more cruise activity as 2022 limps along.

 

The virus will be with us in one form or another for some time. We just have to get better at avoiding it, limiting it, handling the increasingly fewer times it happens with increasingly less disease from it.

 

At least this is not a worsening in this mess, and instead, some amount of progress.

 

- Joel

I tend to agree with you. Was really hoping for an early September 2021 cruise out of Amsterdam but don't think it will happen. My CVP was encouraging me to book stating I can cancel prior to final payment which is 4 months away but we are so behind in vaccines just not really worth the work involved.

[UKPete71]

8 hours ago, tfred said:

paywall

This may bypass the paywall

 

https://outline.com/wcyKkc

 

[Lastdance]

3 hours ago, marieps said:

I'm with you, friend from Fayette County.  Just saying I hope the new guy lives up to the promises...vaccine-wise.

 

 

 

We all want the vaccine to roll out more smoothly and with more people getting vaccinated.  I have had my first shot and my second is on 2/6.  My DH and I are more than ready to cruise, but also understanding that this is a virus with mutations.  No one has a magic wand or crystal ball, but if not for science, we would not even be where we are today; the logistics present a huge issue.  I live in a state that is second to the bottom when it comes to getting its doses.  However, I am an individual that believes the glass is half full, knowing only too well that masks and protocols are effective.  All of us are governed by the weakest links in society, but the majority of us want the best and are willing to do our share.  Transparency and honesty are what I care about most.  I can handle the truth even if it is negative, as this pandemic has only fortified my resilence.  We can do this and we will!

Edited January 28, 2021 by Lastdance

[bdrcole]

34 minutes ago, UKPete71 said:

This may bypass the paywall

 

https://outline.com/wcyKkc

 

It works.  Thank you for posting the link.

[scottsla]

If anything I think his dates are optimistic, at least for anything beyond local cruising. 

[WonderMan3]

10 hours ago, marieps said:

I'm with you, friend from Fayette County.  Just saying I hope the new guy lives up to the promises...vaccine-wise.

 

 

 

Well, seeing as the other guy had no distribution plan, causing the disorganized mess we are currently in, the only way to go is up.

 

As far as the article’s prediction for a cruise restart it seems on target. I have been predicting a November restart in time for the Caribbean season. Over the past week or so I have found myself concerned about these new strains popping up that are more contagious and predictions of increased cases in a month or so even though we appear to be tracking downward at present. God help a strain coming out that is resistant to the vaccine. Then who knows when we could see cruising start again.