Royal is sailing, why isn't NCL?

[Crazy planning mom]

Royal has been sailing for months out of Singapore, now they will be sailing out Of Israel and Nassau.

Princess and multiple lines are planning domestic cruises out of Southampton, England.

Meanwhile, NCL sent crew home.   Why aren't they trying any foreign ports?

Edited March 20, 2021 by Crazy planning mom

[njhorseman]

1 minute ago, Crazy planning mom said:

Royal has been sailing for months out of Singapore, now they will be sailing out Of Israel and Nassau?

Princess and multiple lines are planning domestic cruises out of Southampton, England.

Meanwhile, NCL sent crew home.   Why aren't they trying any foreign ports?

It's very likely they are exploring cruises from nearby foreign ports but haven't come up with a suitable solution yet.

 

Please keep in mind that the cruises you mentioned are very restricted and many are of the type that are illegal in the US for reasons that have nothing to do with COVID-19.

 

The cruises from Singapore make no port calls and are open only to residents of Singapore. These "cruises to nowhere" are no longer legal in the US for foreign-crewed ships because of a DHS work visa ruling made several years ago.

 

The UK cruises are also cruises to nowhere, so once again not legal in the US.

 

The cruises from Israel are open to fully vaccinated Israeli citizens only. Israel has the world's highest percentage of COVID vaccinated citizens.

 

Let's see if the announced cruises from Nassau actually take place. Remember that there was a cruise line that initiated cruises from Barbados but quickly shut the operation down  because of passengers coming down with COVID.

 

 

[graphicguy]

Just a guess, but NCL had been probably the most over cautious of any of the major cruise lines.

 

I knew of Royal sailing out of Israel with vaccinated passengers.

 

Just heard yesterday, Celebrity is starting to sail out of, I think, St Martyn.

 

Cruise lines are pretty copy cat.  I think NCL won't be far behind.  I just booked later this year (December) out of L.A. on the Bliss.  I feel pretty good about that sailing.

[oteixeira]

13 minutes ago, njhorseman said:

It's very likely they are exploring cruises from nearby foreign ports but haven't come up with a suitable solution yet.

 

Please keep in mind that the cruises you mentioned are very restricted and many are of the type that are illegal in the US for reasons that have nothing to do with COVID-19.

 

The cruises from Singapore make no port calls and are open only to residents of Singapore. These "cruises to nowhere" are no longer legal in the US for foreign-crewed ships because of a DHS work visa ruling made several years ago.

 

The UK cruises are also cruises to nowhere, so once again not legal in the US.

 

The cruises from Israel are open to fully vaccinated Israeli citizens only. Israel has the world's highest percentage of COVID vaccinated citizens.

 

Let's see if the announced cruises from Nassau actually take place. Remember that there was a cruise line that initiated cruises from Barbados but quickly shut the operation down  because of passengers coming down with COVID.

 

 

The OP did not mention doing cruises to nowhere out of the US.  As far as the cruise line that quickly shut down that was before a vaccine.  I think the vaccine changes everything, and I do hope NCL is asking around the Caribbean/Mexico looking for somewhere to put a ship.  

Keep in mind the NCL has ships off Aruba, and even one around Miami.  If they were able to fly crew home from Aruba (which they did) they can fly crew back in.  I still think they can be cruising in about 90 days from coming up with an agreement with somewhere.

 

[Crazy planning mom]

26 minutes ago, oteixeira said:

The OP did not mention doing cruises to nowhere out of the US.  As far as the cruise line that quickly shut down that was before a vaccine.  I think the vaccine changes everything, and I do hope NCL is asking around the Caribbean/Mexico looking for somewhere to put a ship.  

Keep in mind the NCL has ships off Aruba, and even one around Miami.  If they were able to fly crew home from Aruba (which they did) they can fly crew back in.  I still think they can be cruising in about 90 days from coming up with an agreement with somewhere.

 

Exactly, I never mentioned cruises to nowhere.  I know that the cruises out of Israel are limited to Israel citizens and that the Singapore citizens are limited to Singaporean residents.  My point is that Royal is sailing, making money and  getting new cruisers.     

[roger001]

Europe is looking like bad news again with the virus.  Today's news for France and several other countries, they are heading toward shutdown again.   The new variants are taking off quickly.  Fortunately, the vaccines seem to be working pretty good with them still.  Germany said today that EU does not have enough vaccine to stop a new outbreak.  We've still got a long way to go I'm afraid. 

[njhorseman]

21 minutes ago, oteixeira said:

The OP did not mention doing cruises to nowhere out of the US.  As far as the cruise line that quickly shut down that was before a vaccine.  I think the vaccine changes everything, and I do hope NCL is asking around the Caribbean/Mexico looking for somewhere to put a ship.  

Keep in mind the NCL has ships off Aruba, and even one around Miami.  If they were able to fly crew home from Aruba (which they did) they can fly crew back in.  I still think they can be cruising in about 90 days from coming up with an agreement with somewhere.

 

Yes, I should have been more careful about noting the OP was not addressing cruises to nowhere out of the US, so while what I said was true it wasn't particularly relevant to the OP's question. 

 

I should have mentioned that the Princess UK cruises are restricted to vaccinated UK residents only.

 

I did start my reply by saying that NCL is likely exploring cruises from foreign ports but hasn't come up with something suitable yet. NCL still has time to do something similar by later in the summer. They've only cancelled cruises through June as of now.  Royal Caribbean from Nassau and Celebrity from St. Maarten are scheduled for a June start.  Crystal has cruises scheduled from the Bahamas starting July 3.The Princess UK cruises don't start until July 31.

[njhorseman]

5 minutes ago, Crazy planning mom said:

Exactly, I never mentioned cruises to nowhere.  I know that the cruises out of Israel are limited to Israel citizens and that the Singapore citizens are limited to Singaporean residents.  My point is that Royal is sailing, making money and  getting new cruisers.     

Yes, as I acknowledged in my recent reply to the other poster my comment about US-based cruises to nowhere while accurate weren't relevant to your question. I should have been more careful in structuring my first reply to you. You do have to understand however that I had no way of knowing whether you were aware of the vaccination and residence restrictions on the Singapore and Israel cruises...and by the way on the Princess UK cruises too.

 

I disagree with your statement about making money. Those cruises, which will undoubtedly have limited occupancy percentages (Royal Caribbean out of Singapore is limited to 50% capacity and Celebrity has stated its cruises from St. Maarten will be limited to 40% of capacity for example.) won't make any money. They will break even on operating expenses and not generate enough income to cover amortization and corporate overhead, much less less make a profit.

[ECCruise]

This disclosure for the Celebrity/RCCL sailings says to me, when translated, I think I'll wait. 

 

NOTICE: Prior to booking, please consult all applicable U.S. Centers for Disease Control travel advisories, warnings, or recommendations relating to cruise travel, at cdc.gov/travel/notices. If a certain threshold level of COVID-19 is detected onboard the ship during your voyage, the voyage will end immediately, the ship will return to the port of embarkation, and your subsequent travel, including your return home, may be restricted or delayed.

[macandlucy]

Hmm I wonder what that "certain threshold" is. 

 

 

[ECCruise]

6 minutes ago, macandlucy said:

Hmm I wonder what that "certain threshold" is. 

 

 

I think that will depend on load plus other factors.

And I don't think they will tell you what it is.

[SeaShark]

4 hours ago, Crazy planning mom said:

Royal has been sailing for months out of Singapore, now they will be sailing out Of Israel and Nassau.

Princess and multiple lines are planning domestic cruises out of Southampton, England.

Meanwhile, NCL sent crew home.   Why aren't they trying any foreign ports?

 

Norwegian isn't exactly known for informing CC members of the "why" behind their corporate decisions, so anything we have is basically a guess.

 

That said, I would think that a company who uses this as a logo

 

 

probably isn't going to do something simply because some other cruise line does.

 

 

[Crazy planning mom]

3 hours ago, njhorseman said:

Yes, as I acknowledged in my recent reply to the other poster my comment about US-based cruises to nowhere while accurate weren't relevant to your question. I should have been more careful in structuring my first reply to you. You do have to understand however that I had no way of knowing whether you were aware of the vaccination and residence restrictions on the Singapore and Israel cruises...and by the way on the Princess UK cruises too.

 

I disagree with your statement about making money. Those cruises, which will undoubtedly have limited occupancy percentages (Royal Caribbean out of Singapore is limited to 50% capacity and Celebrity has stated its cruises from St. Maarten will be limited to 40% of capacity for example.) won't make any money. They will break even on operating expenses and not generate enough income to cover amortization and corporate overhead, much less less make a profit.

I think they do make money.  They may break even with fares but then there are drink packages, specialty dining, shopping, casinos.  

[njhorseman]

1 hour ago, Crazy planning mom said:

I think they do make money.  They may break even with fares but then there are drink packages, specialty dining, shopping, casinos.  

No...not even close to making money at 40-50% capacity. The interest and principal on ships costing hundreds of millions (even a billion in some cases) of dollars can't be paid with half full ships. They're lucky to break even on an operating (fuel, food, wages, etc.) basis. 

If you were to ,lose your job and collect 50% of your normal earnings from unemployment insurance you might be able to feed your family but if you have a big mortgage or a high rent to pay you'd be in trouble.

[zerooveride]

53 minutes ago, njhorseman said:

No...not even close to making money at 40-50% capacity. The interest and principal on ships costing hundreds of millions (even a billion in some cases) of dollars can't be paid with half full ships. They're lucky to break even on an operating (fuel, food, wages, etc.) basis. 

If you were to ,lose your job and collect 50% of your normal earnings from unemployment insurance you might be able to feed your family but if you have a big mortgage or a high rent to pay you'd be in trouble.

If you can find it take a look at CNBC's "Cruise Inc: Big Money on the High Seas" 1-hour special. At the end there is a question to the NCL guy about wether the featured cruise was profitable or not. I haven't found a streaming link but if you can it is an interesting show about the money side of the cruise industry

 

https://www.cnbc.com/cruise-inc/

 

(And if you find a link, let me know)

[Crazy planning mom]

1 hour ago, njhorseman said:

No...not even close to making money at 40-50% capacity. The interest and principal on ships costing hundreds of millions (even a billion in some cases) of dollars can't be paid with half full ships. They're lucky to break even on an operating (fuel, food, wages, etc.) basis. 

If you were to ,lose your job and collect 50% of your normal earnings from unemployment insurance you might be able to feed your family but if you have a big mortgage or a high rent to pay you'd be in trouble.

Well, Royal says they can break even at 50 percent.  https://www.*****.com/2020/05/21/royal-caribbeans-newer-ships-break-even-quicker-older-ships

[njhorseman]

44 minutes ago, Crazy planning mom said:

Well, Royal says they can break even at 50 percent.  https://www.*****.com/2020/05/21/royal-caribbeans-newer-ships-break-even-quicker-older-ships

When cruise lines make statements like that about finances they're invariably using EBITDA, which means "Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization". Breaking even on an EBITDA basis means you're losing your shirt on a GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) basis, which includes all the items omitted from EBITDA .

 

Think of it this way...you lose your job and collect unemployment insurance that is half your normal wage. While you might be able to put food on the table and pay utility bills you're likely not going to be able to pay your mortgage or car loan or pay all your credit card bills.

 

PS...Even if you accept the EBITDA numbers "breaking even" does not equate to making money,  I spend $1,000 for the cruise and the cruise line spends $1,000 providing the cruise. That doesn't add a dime to the cruise company's bottom line.

 

Edited March 20, 2021 by njhorseman

[njhorseman]

1 hour ago, zerooveride said:

If you can find it take a look at CNBC's "Cruise Inc: Big Money on the High Seas" 1-hour special. At the end there is a question to the NCL guy about wether the featured cruise was profitable or not. I haven't found a streaming link but if you can it is an interesting show about the money side of the cruise industry

 

https://www.cnbc.com/cruise-inc/

 

(And if you find a link, let me know)

I've seen the show.  I won't be wasting any of my time trying to find it.

[cachouonacruise]

I was just on line with a NCL representative regarding questions relating to shore excursions....

 

I could not resist asking the One million dollar question: When is NCL planning to resume sailing operations? 

 

The answer I received was July 1! 

 

I did not ask any details regarding areas of the world, cruise length etc.... I was just happy to receive a concrete answer! ( O.k. I did not speak to the CEO nor any high ranking official, so the answer may not be sealed in concrete, but, I received it as an encouraging sign, and credible too, taking into account that Celebrity will resume some Carribbean sailing on June 5.)

 

[njhorseman]

Just now, cachouonacruise said:

I was just on line with a NCL representative regarding questions relating to shore excursions....

 

I could not resist asking the One million dollar question: When is NCL planning to resume sailing operations? 

 

The answer I received was July 1! 

 

I did not ask any details regarding areas of the world, cruise length etc.... I was just happy to receive a concrete answer! ( O.k. I did not speak to the CEO nor any high ranking official, so the answer may not be sealed in concrete, but, I received it as an encouraging sign, and credible too, taking into account that Celebrity will resume some Carribbean sailing on June 5.)

 

Did you consider that the July 1 date was given because they have cancelled only through June 30 as of now? If you asked the question a month ago the answer would have been June 1 . Two months ago the answer would have been May 1, etc. 

[cachouonacruise]

1 minute ago, njhorseman said:Did you consider that the July 1 date was given because they have cancelled only through June 30 as of now? If you asked the question a month ago the answer would have been June 1 . Two months ago the answer would have been May 1, etc. 

 

No, I did not and you are likely correct!

 

This said, taking in consideration that most Americans will have been vaccinated by the end of May, most Canadians by the end of June, ( I am not sure about the vaccination programs of other countries, but to my knowledge, most programs will likely be well underway as well); taking in consideration also, the announced sailing resumption of Celebrity; the July 1 dateline mentioned to me made sense. 

 

Keeping my fingers crossed! ( I am fully aware that this virus has found ways to outsmart and outrun, most of human kind.).

[Nclcruise1415]

Our TA posted in. Group yesterday that we should expect an announcement regarding NCL cruises very soon. I have a feeling it’s going to be the Sun/Sky sailing from an alternate port. My opinion of course... 

[roger001]

Reading again today about the RCL plan to cruise out of the Bahamas, just doesn't sound like a fun cruise yet for me.  Testing is required within 5 days of arriving in the Bahamas and again once arriving.  Then on the ship everyone vaccinated (I like that), masks, testing and temp checks.  The cruise hits Cozumel and the RCL island.   Now I wonder if someone tests positive on board (even though that person is protected from symptoms), how will you get off the ship and what then happens.  Quarantined in the Bahamas, denied air travel back home, arrival in the US having tested positive?   Still just way too many issues for a comfortable cruise....for me.  

[Cruise Gopher]

3 hours ago, roger001 said:

Reading again today about the RCL plan to cruise out of the Bahamas, just doesn't sound like a fun cruise yet for me.  Testing is required within 5 days of arriving in the Bahamas and again once arriving.  Then on the ship everyone vaccinated (I like that), masks, testing and temp checks.  The cruise hits Cozumel and the RCL island.   Now I wonder if someone tests positive on board (even though that person is protected from symptoms), how will you get off the ship and what then happens.  Quarantined in the Bahamas, denied air travel back home, arrival in the US having tested positive?   Still just way too many issues for a comfortable cruise....for me.  

All of this ^^!

 

And I truly wonder what the onboard experience will be like. They will certainly scale way back on food offerings, limited MDR menus, fewer buffet items, maybe some specialty restaurants closed, etc. 

 

It’s not going to be a typical cruise. 

[CruiseMH]

23 hours ago, njhorseman said:

No...not even close to making money at 40-50% capacity. The interest and principal on ships costing hundreds of millions (even a billion in some cases) of dollars can't be paid with half full ships. They're lucky to break even on an operating (fuel, food, wages, etc.) basis. 

If you were to ,lose your job and collect 50% of your normal earnings from unemployment insurance you might be able to feed your family but if you have a big mortgage or a high rent to pay you'd be in trouble.

 

TUI cruises in germany is operating with 1-3 ships since July 2020 already.They are sailing at 25 to 50% of capacity. And they are all-incl. ships and offer low fares. Why do you think they are doing it since 9 months and still did not stop operating? Why is MSC operating cruises since several months? Why is RCCL operating(even if only for specific passengers) ? You can be sure that they would not take the risk and do all the efforts if they would burn money. 😉

Their financial situation is not the best and no cruise line would make it even worse on purpose.

They might not make any profit. But they are reducing their losses. Thats why they are operating.

 

So, if these cruise lines can do it then NCL should be able to do it as well.

Every cruise line that is now operating and not having any problems like virus outbreaks has an incredible high chance to raise their market share in these markets. If people are happy and satisfied they will choose these cruise lines for their next cruises first ,cause they trust in them.