Royal Caribbean submits plans for test cruises?

[BOOKBOOKBOOK]

14 minutes ago, not-enough-cruising said:

In reality there aren’t 2 paths. 
 

RCG has made it clear they do not have any plans that exclude children, so the “test cruises” route is the only route they can take. 

 

Q1 2021 Earnings Call Transcript - https://seekingalpha.com/article/4422623-royal-caribbean-group-rcl-ceo-richard-fain-on-q1-2021-results-earnings-call-transcript

 

Michael Bayley

"On the kids, I think we obviously take a look at our kid count, kid population and what have you. We think this is the next phase. And we know that the vaccinations are now eligible for children, 16 and over. We've been told that in the coming weeks and months that that age limit will likely drop to 12, and we're encouraged by that. And then for kids 11 and under, obviously, we carry a lot of kids 11 and under. But relatively speaking, as a percentage of our total guest count, it's quite a small number. So we're not overly concerned with that. And again, as Richard pointed out, we received these modifications late last night. We really do have to sit, study and discuss with the CDC and understand all of these different nuances. But we're not discouraged by this in anyway."

Richard Fain

"And Steve, just - I think we ought to make it clear that we've been operating and have announced cruises, some of which are requiring full vaccination and some of which do not. And so, I think we consider it constructive that the CDC has looked at this with a dual pathway approach, much as we have taken."

 

I think I'll let company management illuminate what reality is.

Edited May 23, 2021 by BOOKBOOKBOOK

[not-enough-cruising]

2 minutes ago, BOOKBOOKBOOK said:

 

Q1 2021 Earnings Call Transcript - https://seekingalpha.com/article/4422623-royal-caribbean-group-rcl-ceo-richard-fain-on-q1-2021-results-earnings-call-transcript

 

Michael Bayley

"On the kids, I think we obviously take a look at our kid count, kid population and what have you. We think this is the next phase. And we know that the vaccinations are now eligible for children, 16 and over. We've been told that in the coming weeks and months that that age limit will likely drop to 12, and we're encouraged by that. And then for kids 11 and under, obviously, we carry a lot of kids 11 and under. But relatively speaking, as a percentage of our total guest count, it's quite a small number. So we're not overly concerned with that. And again, as Richard pointed out, we received these modifications late last night. We really do have to sit, study and discuss with the CDC and understand all of these different nuances. But we're not discouraged by this in anyway."

Richard Fain

"And Steve, just - I think we ought to make it clear that we've been operating and have announced cruises, some of which are requiring full vaccination and some of which do not. And so, I think we consider it constructive that the CDC has looked at this with a dual pathway approach, much as we have taken."

 

I'll let what company management tells me what reality is.

I question Richards comment, I have no recollection of them operating or announcing any “fully vaccinated” cruises. 
 

Also, this transcript is from late April, the earnings call was nearly 4 weeks ago; the directives we are navigating now did not even exist at the time of this call. 

[BOOKBOOKBOOK]

2 minutes ago, not-enough-cruising said:

I question Richards comment, I have no recollection of them operating or announcing any “fully vaccinated” cruises. 
 

Also, this transcript is from late April, the earnings call was nearly 4 weeks ago; the directives we are navigating now did not even exist at the time of this call. 

 

Just because you have no recollection of them operating or announcing any fully vaccinated cruises doesn't mean that they don't exist. The Nassau and Bermuda (not cancelled at the time of the call) itineraries are fully vaccinated cruises with the exception of those under 16 needing to provide a negative test. Management has said that they have no issues complying with the 95% passenger vaccination requirement with full knowledge that kids under 16 couldn't get the vaccine yet. Now that 12+ can get the vaccine, their concerns are brought down even lower.

 

Royal has yet to announce fully vaccinated cruises coming out of the US like the Nassau and Bermuda itineraries, but that doesn't mean they are not pursuing both paths in parallel for a US restart given the evidence from the horse's mouth.

 

Curious, what directives that didn't exist four weeks ago lead you to believe that Royal will not consider 95% vaccinated ships out of the US?

[kearney]

7 minutes ago, not-enough-cruising said:

I question Richards comment, I have no recollection of them operating or announcing any “fully vaccinated” cruises. 
 

Also, this transcript is from late April, the earnings call was nearly 4 weeks ago; the directives we are navigating now did not even exist at the time of this call. 

Closest that I am aware of are the ones out of Bahamas... where everyone over some age (this has been modified...must be vaccinated.... The kids are the thing that screws up the percentages. But if they do pursue test cruises...that could open them up to having non vaccinated adults..down the road... perhaps August...or later.. 

[not-enough-cruising]

4 minutes ago, BOOKBOOKBOOK said:

 

Just because you have no recollection of them operating or announcing any fully vaccinated cruises doesn't mean that they don't exist. The Nassau and Bermuda (not cancelled at the time of the call) itineraries are fully vaccinated cruises with the exception of those under 16 needing to provide a negative test. Management has said that they have no issues complying with the 95% passenger vaccination requirement with full knowledge that kids under 16 couldn't get the vaccine yet. Now that 12+ can get the vaccine, their concerns are brought down even lower.

 

Royal has yet to announce fully vaccinated cruises coming out of the US like the Nassau and Bermuda itineraries, but that doesn't mean they are not pursuing both paths in parallel for a US restart given the evidence from the horse's mouth.

 

Curious, what directives that didn't exist four weeks ago lead you to believe that Royal will not consider 95% vaccinated ships out of the US?

The Nassau and the now defunct Bermuda sailings would not qualify as fully vaccinated, with respect to the CDC/CSO.  It has nothing to do with my recollection, the fact is fully vaccinated cruises were never announced. 
 

I absolutely believe that Royal will persue the 95/98 pathway, but I don’t believe they will be willing to turn away passengers due to a unvaccinated threshold, therefore the test cruises route makes the most sense for them. That’s all. 

Edited May 23, 2021 by not-enough-cruising

[not-enough-cruising]

5 minutes ago, kearney said:

Closest that I am aware of are the ones out of Bahamas... where everyone over some age (this has been modified...must be vaccinated.... The kids are the thing that screws up the percentages. But if they do pursue test cruises...that could open them up to having non vaccinated adults..down the road... perhaps August...or later.. 

I agree 100%, the Bahamas cruises were close to meeting the definition of fully vaccinated. 

[Baron Barracuda]

Faster/simpler to start ringing the register by restarting with a few ships doing 95/98 sailings.  Meanwhile get rest of fleet certified though test cruises.  Then they can carry all the kiddies they want.

[James4me]

4 hours ago, Ourusualbeach said:

Now if only our government would open the border and relax the 14 day quarantine......

You want the government to open the borders and relax the 14 day quarantine 🤔🤔🤔, yet you are against unvacced cruisers.  I just don’t get it.

[Espn]

Not sure what all this news means but if our cruise at the end of Oct doesn’t follow the vaccinated model then RC can keep our deposit on the 2BR GS we have booked and we will not be making final payment. We will find other land vacations to take in the future and be done with cruising.

[Ourusualbeach]

17 minutes ago, James4me said:

You want the government to open the borders and relax the 14 day quarantine 🤔🤔🤔, yet you are against unvacced cruisers.  I just don’t get it.

I want the government to open the border and relax restrictions once people are vaccinated.  Unfortunately with our government they want to delay that process until we have reached 75% vaccinated. 

[harkinmr]

3 hours ago, smokeybandit said:

Right, the CDC has said a lot of things so far that they've changed their minds on.  Since the whole concept of a test cruise is woefully obsolete, I can't imagine cruise lines are too thrilled about doing one for every ship when it'll be extremely redundant to do so.

You know, for someone who thinks and says emphatically that it is a major inconvenience for cruise lines to meet the requirements of the CSO, they sure are doing so at a rapid clip. 

[smokeybandit]

11 minutes ago, harkinmr said:

You know, for someone who thinks and says emphatically that it is a major inconvenience for cruise lines to meet the requirements of the CSO, they sure are doing so at a rapid clip. 

 

Seeing as it has taken 7 months for any cruise line to even get a shore agreement in place, I'm not sure I'd call that rapid.

[Jimbo]

11 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

 

Seeing as it has taken 7 months for any cruise line to even get a shore agreement in place, I'm not sure I'd call that rapid.

You are giving them alot of credit, I don't think they have been working much on anything in the last 7 months because they knew they were not sailing.

 

They really didn't think about sailing until the last 2 or 3 weeks when they put together those sailings they just annouced.......Sure didn't take 7 months to set up those ports stops.

[harkinmr]

26 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

 

Seeing as it has taken 7 months for any cruise line to even get a shore agreement in place, I'm not sure I'd call that rapid.

7 months!!??  They’ve only been working on the port agreements for about a month.  The cruise lines were waiting around for them to go away and when they finally figured out they weren’t going to, they finally started working on them. 

Edited May 24, 2021 by harkinmr

[Biker19]

6 hours ago, Vera/Lee said:

Is this a new change?

Depends on what you call new.

[ONECRUISER]

4 hours ago, Ourusualbeach said:

I want the government to open the border and relax restrictions once people are vaccinated.  Unfortunately with our government they want to delay that process until we have reached 75% vaccinated. 

Yeah though good luck be a while if ever hit 75% of all, what is it now 39% Fully Vaccinated? At least we are over 72+% over 65yrs Fully Vaccinated. Months ago I thought it would be a win if we could hit at least 60% Adults

[orville99]

14 hours ago, BOOKBOOKBOOK said:

Royal has yet to announce fully vaccinated cruises coming out of the US like the Nassau and Bermuda itineraries, but that doesn't mean they are not pursuing both paths in parallel for a US restart given the evidence from the horse's mouth.

Ahh, but they have...Alaska, starting in July...

[rtazz17]

9 hours ago, ONECRUISER said:

Yeah though good luck be a while if ever hit 75% of all, what is it now 39% Fully Vaccinated? At least we are over 72+% over 65yrs Fully Vaccinated. Months ago I thought it would be a win if we could hit at least 60% Adults

Exactly,never hit 75%. Which is not needed anyways. Herd immunity happens well before that and people that have had it already are immune. 

[ArthurUSCG]

I suspect RCL is persuading both pathways. The fully Vaccinated cruises are likely to get sailing first with the unvaccinated cruises sailing latter. But when you think about the timing, the unvaccinated cruises make zero sense, since by the time they are sailing, is when schools are starting back up.

[orville99]

10 hours ago, ONECRUISER said:

Yeah though good luck be a while if ever hit 75% of all, what is it now 39% Fully Vaccinated? At least we are over 72+% over 65yrs Fully Vaccinated. Months ago I thought it would be a win if we could hit at least 60% Adults

The relevant numbers are actually much better than that, considering that ~9% of the total population is represented by children under 12 years old, and that even one dose of either the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines have a higher than 80% efficacy. Add the roughly 30 Million who have had the virus and recovered (dropped the recovered total by ~2 Million to account for those who have recovered and may have also been vaccinated) to the vaccination numbers as of 5/23 and we're already reaching "herd" immunity.

[Jeremiah1212]

Late to the party, but here's the source:

 

In his position sometimes it's not really clear if he's talking about Royal Caribbean cruise line or Royal Caribbean Group as a whole. More announcements expected this week that should add some clarity. 

 

For what it's worth, Celebrity has been telling TA's they are pursuing the 95% vaccinated route for a several weeks now. Royal Caribbean may not follow that path. 

[Biker19]

33 minutes ago, Jeremiah1212 said:

 

In his position sometimes it's not really clear if he's talking about Royal Caribbean cruise line or Royal Caribbean Group as a whole.

Since he's only RCI CEO I doubt he would take away any message Fain would say about RCG.

[ONECRUISER]

3 hours ago, orville99 said:

The relevant numbers are actually much better than that, considering that ~9% of the total population is represented by children under 12 years old, and that even one dose of either the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines have a higher than 80% efficacy. Add the roughly 30 Million who have had the virus and recovered (dropped the recovered total by ~2 Million to account for those who have recovered and may have also been vaccinated) to the vaccination numbers as of 5/23 and we're already reaching "herd" immunity.

Though the Dr Fauci Goal is 75% of all ages inc all kids. It's said we are near/at Herd Immunity with all Vaccinated and those with Natural Immunity...

Edited May 24, 2021 by ONECRUISER

[orville99]

1 hour ago, ONECRUISER said:

Though the Dr Fauci Goal is 75% of all ages inc all kids. It's said we are near/at Herd Immunity with all Vaccinated and those with Natural Immunity...

Fauci changes direction more often than a breakdancer on a tile floor.  His boss is the one that gets to set goals, and he set a goal of 70% with at least one jab by July 1. 

[smokeybandit]

2 hours ago, ONECRUISER said:

Though the Dr Fauci Goal is 75% of all ages inc all kids. It's said we are near/at Herd Immunity with all Vaccinated and those with Natural Immunity...

Fauci has said a couple different numbers in regards to herd immunity. Like any other thing, he keeps changing his mind.