Should we or shouldn’t we?

[PTC DAWG]

14 minutes ago, Ipeeinthepools said:

 

The NFL is taking an interesting approach, they are only testing people that have symptoms.  The result is that even more players with Covid will continue playing.  I doubt that we will see this approach for cruising because the cruise lines will need to continue to try to keep the passengers from infecting the residents of the countries they visit.

Testing asymptotic vaccinated people is futile…IMHO.  Glad the NFL figured this out.  

Edited December 19, 2021 by PTC DAWG

[4774Papa]

2 hours ago, stevenr597 said:

Please don’t flame me for bringing up this question….but

My wife and I are scheduled to sail on Celebrity in early January.  When we first booked several months ago, we were told that, in respect to the virus, that, “everything should be over by the end of the year.”

As we all know that is certainly not the case.  

In fact over the last week, we seem to be moving steadily backward.  The cruise lines are now drastically increasing restrictions, not only with vaccines (which we agree), but making it mandatory that unless you are eating or outdoors you absolutely have to wear a mask.  

We are also seeing countries beginning to close down. 

One of our worries is that the islands will only permit individuals to go ashore only with organized tour groups.

We are seriously considering cancelling our cruise, and hopefully getting a credit.

I am in my early 70’s.  I am a physician who has worked from day 1 since the Pandemic.  Many of my patient have become ill, and some have died. 

I am fairy well read up and educated in respect to Covid. We are fully vaccinated, in fact I received my 3rd Pfizer vaccine several months ago.  

But we are in fear of either becoming ill on board, being ill and stranded on one of the islands, and in an even wors case, having a epidemic on the ship.  

I, as a physician, do understand that there is no right or wrong.  But what are one’s feelings in respect to this.  

Would one put off cruising for the next several months. 

We have faced the same decision about foreign travel.    I know one only one person that has died of COVID19 and he was 94 years old.  I know a couple that had to be hospitalized for three days, all the others had a milder form of the virus.  Still, I am not a physician, but I have discussed travel with my physician and he and I agree that at some point we have to go out and live our lives (I am 73 and have been told my life expectancy is about 12 years).  COVID19 has already eaten up two years of my life.  We are ready to travel, however with all the restrictions abounding, especially in Europe, we don't want to get stuck somewhere or be quarantined for many days.  

 

My wife and I have a land tour of Israel and Jordan for March, but Israel has shut down to foreign travelers.   This my destroy our planned tour.   Also, we have postponed our East African Safari now twice from 2020 to 2021 and now until 2022.   We decided to travel in 2022.   We did a great 8 day land tour of Iceland in July and it was fantastic.

 

I say we go to parts of the world where restrictions are mild and tourists are wanted.   Yes, if we get COVID19 there is a risk, but frankly, the fatality rate is less than 1%.  We are healthy with no co-morbidities.

However, we are not so impressed with cruising.  No way will I cruise if I have to wear a mask.  

 

[RichYak]

33 minutes ago, Ipeeinthepools said:

The NFL is taking an interesting approach, they are only testing people that have symptoms.  The result is that even more players with Covid will continue playing.

Yes, it's a real-world approach--getting tested when you exhibit symptoms or on your own if you want to. Unfortunately, the NFL is the only league that can easily use this approach as they have no teams in Canada.

[CAicruiser]

I will never see an unlicensed Physician or a bogus doctor.

[deliver42]

Our next cruise is in March. We're both boosted and will definitely cruise. Heck, we can get the virus going to a store, and I work in a super market, with unmasked customers every day. I think my chances are lower to catch it on a ship than at work.

[JFontaine]

3 hours ago, Ferry_Watcher said:

True, but the 900 Covid cases in one week at Cornell University where all the students were fully vaccinated shows that the virus can be spread quickly in an insular environment.  

Agreed,  but that was 900 of 26,000 students.  And like the NFL, they were likely vaccinated during the summer and didn't get boostered yet - I don't think that should even count as being fully vaccinated now.  Many NFL teams gave one and done J & J vaccine.   And according to Cornell newspaper, in the prior week there were many parties and other social events where college kids are unmasked in close quarters.  We should all learn from these mistakes.  

 

[Bluewake]

14 minutes ago, JFontaine said:

Agreed,  but that was 900 of 26,000 students.  And like the NFL, they were likely vaccinated during the summer and didn't get boostered yet - I don't think that should even count as being fully vaccinated now.  Many NFL teams gave one and done J & J vaccine.   And according to Cornell newspaper, in the prior week there were many parties and other social events where college kids are unmasked in close quarters.  We should all learn from these mistakes.  

 

Agreed.  Do you think there is a parallel to cruise ships where unmasked people who have received only two vaccine doses are gathering together in shipboard bars, dining rooms, and other areas of the ship? Does that increase the potential for transmission in a manner not unlike students at the Ale House?  (RIP The Chapter House)

[DaKahuna]

5 hours ago, stevenr597 said:

Would one put off cruising for the next several months. 

Having just finished a wonderful B2B, my obvious answer is no. 

[Peery5]

What I wonder is, are the passengers who are testing positive on board, already infected when they came on? Or did they get infected while off the ship on excursions?  Would be interesting to know. Scheduled to leave 1/4/22. 

[Ipeeinthepools]

5 minutes ago, Peery5 said:

What I wonder is, are the passengers who are testing positive on board, already infected when they came on? Or did they get infected while off the ship on excursions?  Would be interesting to know. Scheduled to leave 1/4/22. 

 

My guess is the passengers were infected when they boarded the ship or were infected by other asymptomatic passengers.  Typically passengers do not have a lot of close contact with residents of countries they visit.

[t18c97]

We're on the Apex 1/15 and asked the wife just this morning if she feels comfortable taking the cruise, her response was we are going. We're just about to enter our 7th decade and got our booster Moderna shot back on 8/30. We just got back from a week in Disney World and had a PCR test 3 days after we returned and were clean. 

[Ipeeinthepools]

1 minute ago, t18c97 said:

We're on the Apex 1/15 and asked the wife just this morning if she feels comfortable taking the cruise, her response was we are going. We're just about to enter our 7th decade and got our booster Moderna shot back on 8/30. We just got back from a week in Disney World and had a PCR test 3 days after we returned and were clean. 

 

Enjoy your cruise

[RichYak]

1 hour ago, Bluewake said:

Do you think there is a parallel to cruise ships where unmasked people who have received only two vaccine doses are gathering together in shipboard bars, dining rooms, and other areas of the ship?

Not really. 100% of the students were not tested in the prior few days like cruise ship passengers are. They were also likely not served in the Ale House by staff that was 100% tested in the last 7 days. Those 2 mitigating factors will minimize "outbreaks."

[jagoffee]

4 hours ago, Dwight1 said:

If you have three shots you will not get seriously ill and most likely not show symptoms. Main consideration is how the ports will react snd on board issues. Could be much or maybe not. Very hard to call. May be best to just wait right before cruise to see how it is going, predictions are often way off both ways. With CWC it helps.

I am sure you get great comfort in this belief, but that does not necessarily make it true.  Reducing the probability is not the same as eliminating the possibility.

[Denny01]

2 hours ago, t18c97 said:

We're on the Apex 1/15 and asked the wife just this morning if she feels comfortable taking the cruise, her response was we are going. We're just about to enter our 7th decade and got our booster Moderna shot back on 8/30. We just got back from a week in Disney World and had a PCR test 3 days after we returned and were clean. 

Smart Man…..listen to her and respond with the universal ‘Yes Dear’. 

 

Den

[nocl]

2 hours ago, Ipeeinthepools said:

 

My guess is the passengers were infected when they boarded the ship or were infected by other asymptomatic passengers.  Typically passengers do not have a lot of close contact with residents of countries they visit.

Based upon the timing the odds are that most that tested positive picked it up on the ship.  If they were infected before boarding and were still asymptomatic most would test negative at the end of the cruise 7 days later.  Most likely a case or two got on board or there were some cases from the previous cruise, and most were spread. Some reports have indicated that the case on the previous was Omicron so the rapid spread would make sense.

[Ipeeinthepools]

2 minutes ago, nocl said:

Based upon the timing the odds are that most that tested positive picked it up on the ship.  If they were infected before boarding and were still asymptomatic most would test negative at the end of the cruise 7 days later.  Most likely a case or two got on board or there were some cases from the previous cruise, and most were spread. Some reports have indicated that the case on the previous was Omicron so the rapid spread would make sense.

 

If you want to see how fast Omicron spreads look at the data from the Symphony of the Seas.   There were 44 cases on the most recent sailing.  One person tested positive for Omicron and the others were identified from contact tracing on a 7-day cruise.  I wonder how many more people were infected that weren't identified by contact tracing.

[nocl]

8 minutes ago, Ipeeinthepools said:

 

If you want to see how fast Omicron spreads look at the data from the Symphony of the Seas.   There were 44 cases on the most recent sailing.  One person tested positive for Omicron and the others were identified from contact tracing on a 7-day cruise.  I wonder how many more people were infected that weren't identified by contact tracing.

I would expect that if they had tested everyone like NCL did prior to disembarking the numbers would be higher.  The numbers most likely indicate a faster incubation time with previous variants so multiple generations per week instead of 1.

 

I also seem to recall that they used antigen testing, which may miss 50% of positive cases if someone is asymptomatic (at least with previous variants have not seen any data on sensitivity with Omicron)

[JFontaine]

2 hours ago, Bluewake said:

Agreed.  Do you think there is a parallel to cruise ships where unmasked people who have received only two vaccine doses are gathering together in shipboard bars, dining rooms, and other areas of the ship? Does that increase the potential for transmission in a manner not unlike students at the Ale House?  (RIP The Chapter House)

Yes of course.  But I do think there are many ways for smart, careful cruisers to decrease their risk of infection (not eliminate it), starting with their choice of cruise line, ship, itinerary, cabin (dining room), activities,  etc.  

[Lastdance]

8 hours ago, Dwight1 said:

I have a 2/21/22 cruise, final payment due in three more days. Omicron is forecasted to be very high level in January. Face mask requirement will probably be in effect, ports will alter entry requirements for sure, celebrity air for me has $200 PP penalty upon cancellation, no requirement for booster shots all medical  experts say you really need now. Even then only 70% effective. Just too many negative unknowns at this time. 98% chance I cancel snd wait for my next cruise on 2/18/23. Just my thoughts.

Why do you have a $200 penalty cancellation for air?  I thought that was the change fee.  Just curious…thanks!

[kidless]

We have cruised 3 times since restart have 2 more in January then 5 more throughout next year. We have received 2 shots of vaccine…….no booster. We felt completely safe cruising with a ship full of pre Covid tested vaccinated people. My mother would say if you have to ask you know the answer. Don’t cruise if you are not comfortable. 

[jagoffee]

6 hours ago, Dwight1 said:

If you have three shots you will not get seriously ill and most likely not show symptoms. Main consideration is how the ports will react snd on board issues. Could be much or maybe not. Very hard to call. May be best to just wait right before cruise to see how it is going, predictions are often way off both ways. With CWC it helps.

 

1 hour ago, Dwight1 said:

It’s not my belief or conjecture but current medical observations. 3 doses eliminates infection 70-75% and dramatically reduces the hospitalization when infected. Those resulting in death were next to none. If you wait for elimination your cruising days are permanently over. Even Biden’s health team now recognizes dwelling on case counts is self defeating and the need is to focus on severity, the vast majority lies in the unvaccinated. I would bet by mid January even without any requirement nearly all Celebrity cruisers will have had the booster shot. But each makes decisions  on their own interpretations of the data. In my case by my 2/21 cruise I will see many sailings and see how they fare. If the experiences show a failure in preventing outbreaks, I will cancel and get my FCC. I will pretty much know the magnitude of the risks. 

I have my booster and I would encourage everyone eligible to get one.

 

You said in your first post  that if you have three shots that you will not get seriously sick. This was my reference on how this belief may give you comfort.

 

I have returned to cruising as well.

 

Best of luck.

 

 

 

 

[goofysmom99]

I've taken 9 cruises since August 1st and only had one incident where I was contact traced and confined to my cabin for about 30 hours.  I felt pretty good cruising knowing pax and crew are vax'd, many boosted, and all tested.  You can still catch something - caught a cold on the last day of the last cruise.  Two PCR tests a week apart confirmed not covid.  Even with all the ship protocols and my obsessive hand washing, I still caught a virus.  Nevertheless, I'd still get on a ship this week, but only if I could drive to the port which I did for all my cruises.  In that same vein, tonight I cancelled this week's flights to Ohio.  My uber driver said I was her 5th airport cancellation today.  Since the weather looks decent between here and there, I'm driving.  I just don't trust flying anywhere at the moment, especially in/out of Orlando during Christmas week.  I've booked a hotel with contactless check-in and a kitchenette so I can nuke some dinner.  This would never be my first choice for travel, but with the present circumstances, it's the only option within my comfort level.

[Z'Loth]

44 minutes ago, jagoffee said:

I have my booster and I would encourage everyone eligible to get one.

 

I was scheduled to get a booster shot yesterday, but a last minute head cold caused me to cancel. Another two week wait....

 

The problem with planning a vacation, especially a cruise, is that we are making our reservations from several months out to at least a year or two out. All of us hope that things return to "normal" in that timeline, but as we have seen multiple times, things change at the last moment. This goes beyond just cruising. I just want to go back to my office and reset the boundary between work and home life. Instead, it's month 21 of the six weeks to flatten the curve.

 

Would I cruise at this time? Without that booster shot, no. With the current mask requirements on airlines on a long three hour flight, no. But, that would be my personal decision. 

[Peery5]

5 hours ago, t18c97 said:

We're on the Apex 1/15 and asked the wife just this morning if she feels comfortable taking the cruise, her response was we are going. We're just about to enter our 7th decade and got our booster Moderna shot back on 8/30. We just got back from a week in Disney World and had a PCR test 3 days after we returned and were clean. 

We too are on Apex 1/15. But first Silhouette 1/4.  A little nervous but have  decided if the ship is sailing, we are going to be on it!