Smaller Ships

[Joebucks]

On 3/1/2024 at 5:00 PM, jsglow said:

I'm sure I'll give the Excels a try but there's zero chance I'll spend 50 days a year at sea riding Jubilee to the same 3 ports or going repeatedly to Celebration Key aboard Celebration.

 

I know the popular thing to say online is everyone only cruises tiny ships that explore the wilderness with a machete. Hell, one of my most fond cruises was the South Caribbean out of PR, aboard the Fascination. It was also one of the most boring as the night life doesn't have half as much to do. I think it's a big assumption too that more smaller ships would open up more exotic itineraries.

 

Frankly, I think this new model rejuvenates the short cruises for me. Sometimes, short cruises are nice as an extra option when you can't always sail 7+ days. Personally, I enjoy a nice beach day. Having to go to ports like Cozumel, Nassau, and Freeport can be annoying when you have to pay all of this money and waste all of this time for taxis, beach entry, etc. If I can get on an Excel class, with all of its amenities, and have a beach within walking distance, that's a great option for me. I am not a new cruiser either. Those other longer itineraries aren't going away. Celebration Key is not a bad thing. It's a new option.

[CarnivalShips480]

7 hours ago, JMAE said:

With RCCL announcement that sometime this year a new class of "smaller' ships will be introduced.  We know "currently" CCL has no plans for smaller ship builds.  I know this will be few years down the road, but I wonder how CCL will market their older ships to the newer RCCL "smaller" ships.  I believe RCCL effort would be to attract the seasoned cruiser not looking for the mega ships while enticing new cruisers at the same time.  I understand cruise lines market new cruises dollars to expand their clients base and profits, but it appears to me RCCL understands new cruises become seasoned cruisers and seasoned cruiser provides a reliable base for the industry.     

Its important to remember that Royal Caribbean's thought of a small ship is still big. The rumors of Project Discovery say that it will be 130-140 thousand gross tons, which is the about the size of the Voyager class.

[jimbo5544]

21 hours ago, JMAE said:

With RCCL announcement that sometime this year a new class of "smaller' ships will be introduced.  We know "currently" CCL has no plans for smaller ship builds.  I know this will be few years down the road, but I wonder how CCL will market their older ships to the newer RCCL "smaller" ships.  I believe RCCL effort would be to attract the seasoned cruiser not looking for the mega ships while enticing new cruisers at the same time.  I understand cruise lines market new cruises dollars to expand their clients base and profits, but it appears to me RCCL understands new cruises become seasoned cruisers and seasoned cruiser provides a reliable base for the industry.     

Define smaller from a RCCL perspective.   This company has been about one purp[ose and one purpose only BIGGER.  Show me anything at all where they go after exp[erienced cruisers who want smaller ships.

[dolphinsfan246]

55 minutes ago, jimbo5544 said:

Define smaller from a RCCL perspective.   This company has been about one purp[ose and one purpose only BIGGER.  Show me anything at all where they go after exp[erienced cruisers who want smaller ships.

My thoughts exactly. People are expecting something like the Radiance class because they said they are building smaller but they only mean smaller than Oasis and Icon, which is still not small. The days of those ships are long gone for the main stream lines, it just plain costs too much to a build a ship these days and they need it to carry 4,000 passengers minimum to break even. 

[JMAE]

Not sure we have the power to define "smaller", but for RCCL I would guess between 100,000 to 170,000 tons which is largest number of ships in their current inventory, so they must be profitable. 

 

I'm not a ship designer, but if height is the limiter for port access why not design a ship with a wider beam.  The Spirit class ships have a beam of 106' while the XL ships have 137' beam.  By increasing the beam would add volume to the ship while maintaining the 12 levels but may add to the draft which may be limiting too.   

 

As far as the VIFP program across the corporate brands.  It may be a good corporate wide marketing program based on CCL efforts to lure first time cruisers while providing them a path to their other brands.  I recently watched a CCL marketing video, instead of discussing CCL as usual, they introduced a Princess brand marketing rep to inform the CCL agents of the Princess options.  The presenters alluded CCL had a higher volume of guests booked into 2025 and Princess has available volume.        

[jimbo5544]

1 hour ago, dolphinsfan246 said:

My thoughts exactly. People are expecting something like the Radiance class because they said they are building smaller but they only mean smaller than Oasis and Icon, which is still not small. The days of those ships are long gone for the main stream lines, it just plain costs too much to a build a ship these days and they need it to carry 4,000 passengers minimum to break even. 

Bingo

[jimbo5544]

44 minutes ago, JMAE said:

Not sure we have the power to define "smaller", but for RCCL I would guess between 100,000 to 170,000 tons which is largest number of ships in their current inventory, so they must be profitable. 

 

I'm not a ship designer, but if height is the limiter for port access why not design a ship with a wider beam.  The Spirit class ships have a beam of 106' while the XL ships have 137' beam.  By increasing the beam would add volume to the ship while maintaining the 12 levels but may add to the draft which may be limiting too.   

 

As far as the VIFP program across the corporate brands.  It may be a good corporate wide marketing program based on CCL efforts to lure first time cruisers while providing them a path to their other brands.  I recently watched a CCL marketing video, instead of discussing CCL as usual, they introduced a Princess brand marketing rep to inform the CCL agents of the Princess options.  The presenters alluded CCL had a higher volume of guests booked into 2025 and Princess has available volume.        

Me either, if I were a betting man, I would bet on the 170,000 tons vs the 200,000.  Most that define small would not agree with that as smaller.  I agree the smaller ships are mostly over (one exception seems to be HAL).  I too found the discussion of Princess a little weird.

[vandercapellen]

I just hope they continue to go out of Baltimore for a very long time. They have to do that with a small ship due to it having to fit under the Key Bridge. We love going out of Charleston for short cruises and our home port of Baltimore for long cruises. Unfortunately, Charleston is going away this year. I'd hate to love Baltimore also.  

[elcuchio24]

Small ships are going to be a thing of the past. They hold little interest for new cruisers of folks with kids, and the generally older population who may prefer them is A. not their target audience and B. and ever decreasing subset of customers. 

[JMAE]

8 minutes ago, vandercapellen said:

I just hope they continue to go out of Baltimore for a very long time. They have to do that with a small ship due to it having to fit under the Key Bridge. We love going out of Charleston for short cruises and our home port of Baltimore for long cruises. Unfortunately, Charleston is going away this year. I'd hate to love Baltimore also.  

We are a Baltimore lover too.  An easy 3-hour ride along with reasonable onsite parking for seven days of relaxation.    

[jsglow]

11 minutes ago, elcuchio24 said:

Small ships are going to be a thing of the past. They hold little interest for new cruisers of folks with kids, and the generally older population who may prefer them is A. not their target audience and B. and ever decreasing subset of customers. 

They will always exist. As I've said before, you simply don't get to Dun Laoghaire (Dublin) on an Icon Class. Literally can't happen. Similarly, you won't be visiting Antarctica or even the lesser developed islands of the Caribbean. And let's not mention the major ports that will certainly limit the 'megas' by law. Cruising will segment itself into 'different' industries. And there will always be a significant market for travel, not 'Disney alternative'. 

Edited March 6 by jsglow

[dolphinsfan246]

1 hour ago, vandercapellen said:

I just hope they continue to go out of Baltimore for a very long time. They have to do that with a small ship due to it having to fit under the Key Bridge. We love going out of Charleston for short cruises and our home port of Baltimore for long cruises. Unfortunately, Charleston is going away this year. I'd hate to love Baltimore also.  

I believe Baltimore will always have a ship as long as the Spirit class lasts. Seems to be a strong market and always demands high fares. I’m sure Carnival could push the Spirit class to 2040 or close to it. 

[elcuchio24]

1 hour ago, jsglow said:

They will always exist. As I've said before, you simply don't get to Dun Laoghaire (Dublin) on an Icon Class. Literally can't happen. Similarly, you won't be visiting Antarctica or even the lesser developed islands of the Caribbean. And let's not mention the major ports that will certainly limit the 'megas' by law. Cruising will segment itself into 'different' industries. And there will always be a significant market for travel, not 'Disney alternative'. 

 

Obviously I'm speaking about the major lines, as thats what this discussion is about. There will always be options for expedition type ships for sure but thats not what this thread is about. 

[BlerkOne]

1 hour ago, elcuchio24 said:

Small ships are going to be a thing of the past. They hold little interest for new cruisers of folks with kids, and the generally older population who may prefer them is A. not their target audience and B. and ever decreasing subset of customers. 

Everything we know yesterday, today, or tomorrow will someday be a thing of the past. Change happens.

 

I expect MDRs to disappear and ships to only have food courts (mostly) included and for those who want table service, pay restaurants.

 

It isn't sustainable to live in the past.

 

But small ships, however they evolve, will always have a niche market.

[jsglow]

6 minutes ago, elcuchio24 said:

 

Obviously I'm speaking about the major lines, as thats what this discussion is about. There will always be options for expedition type ships for sure but thats not what this thread is about. 

I guess you don't consider Holland America to be a major line. Perhaps we're just talking past each other; not trying to argue. I'll concede this: RCCL, Carnival, NCL, and MSC specifically are likely to fully evolve into mega ship vacation companies designed to take the masses from Florida/Texas to..... essentially nowhere...... within the next 30 years.

 

If you made me guess, I'd think the market will actually segment into 3-4 broad categories here in the USA with cross-over, of course.

 

- mass market, 'vacation' mega liners (RCCL, NCL, etc.)

- 'medium' upper middle class distant port ships (HAL's Pinnacle class; perhaps Celebrity)  

- luxury small ship cruising (Seabourn, Oceania, Viking)

- specialty (everything from Star Clippers to American Cruise Lines)

 

There's demand in all those categories. Somebody will fill it.

[elcuchio24]

7 minutes ago, jsglow said:

I guess you don't consider Holland America to be a major line. Perhaps we're just talking past each other; not trying to argue. I'll concede this: RCCL, Carnival, NCL, and MSC specifically are likely to fully evolve into mega ship vacation companies designed to take the masses from Florida/Texas to..... essentially nowhere...... within the next 30 years.

 

If you made me guess, I'd think the market will actually segment into 3-4 broad categories here in the USA with cross-over, of course.

 

- mass market, 'vacation' mega liners (RCCL, NCL, etc.)

- 'medium' upper middle class distant port ships (HAL's Pinnacle class; perhaps Celebrity)  

- luxury small ship cruising (Seabourn, Oceania, Viking)

- specialty (everything from Star Clippers to American Cruise Lines)

 

There's demand in all those categories. Somebody will fill it.

 

I'd agree, and say to a large degree that separation has already happened. But, without knowing the actual number, I'd bet 90% over the overall income and passenger load generation of the industry comes from RCL.CCL/MSC/NCL. They're following the $$, which is wise, business-wise.

 

There will always be a niche market, but if folks are holding out for the big lines to start building smaller ships like it was 'back in the day', dont hold your breath. 

[JMAE]

I agree that as this post-COVID market continues to grow, ships will continue to change to get the most staterooms possible sailing and new onboard venues to increase onboard spending. I recently read an article about RCCL, the avg passenger spent a total of $1,818 ($1,251 ticket/ $567onboard).  I assume, Carnival Corp breakdown would be about similar.  Tickets generate about 70-75% of their revenue while onboard spending is about 25-30%.  This produced about a 11-14% profit margin, if the ship is full. However, as markets go (up & down) if volume softens, we should see a decline in ticket pricing to a point with the cruise lines attempting to fill their ships to cover their expenses of the newer larger ships.  The current market forecast is good for the coming years, this is a good discussion to have during a high demand market.  If a major decline or a leveling occurs, we will be having a different discussion.  

[RobInMN]

Wrong thread

Edited April 21 by RobInMN