Smaller Ships

[jerseyjjs]

9 hours ago, BlerkOne said:

They need to look to someone. I see RCCL has already canceled the inaugural cruise or two of Star of the Seas. Could RCCL be having trouble with financing?

 

 

        Princess (Carnival corp.) has cancelled multiple cruises on several ships, namely the newest Sun Princess.  And with RCL selling at over $100/share more than Carnival, it doesn't appear that RCL is any worse off financially than CCL.

[Colorado Beach Bum]

3 hours ago, jerseyjjs said:

And with RCL selling at over $100/share more than Carnival, it doesn't appear that RCL is any worse off financially than CCL

Stock price alone doesn’t represent value of a company.  The price difference is a meaningless comparison without factoring in shares outstanding.  RCL has a higher market cap but it’s not 7-8 times higher based on share price. 

[jsglow]

15 hours ago, BeachChik said:

Not really. A frequent cruiser spend bare minimum. They don’t buy souvenirs, pictures, ship sponsored shore excursions etc. All those things that are pure profit for the cruise line. Plus they want freebies. 
 

I don’t know why anyone would be shocked by this. It’s the same with Disney. They don’t want the local, the annual pass holder, the person using comp tickets. They want the overseas visitor that will stay three weeks and never leave property. 
 

New visitors/cruisers will always be the people that bring in the most revenue. 

I do agree that the focus is big spending, new cruisers. But modest spending old cruisers are your best referral source. My only comment is that you don't want them going over to the competition. If I'm Carnival Corp, I want them on HAL, not going over to Viking.

 

And I haven't been to Disney in 25 years as I know you're right. No plans to return possibly ever.

[CruiseAdict218]

14 hours ago, firefly333 said:

I wouldnt count on smaller builds from rcl either. Looking or thinking about something said in answer to a question, didnt rule it out, but then announced another as yet unnamed oasis class ship next to be built. 

 

Seems icon class is very expensive to build, quite a bit more than oasis class. Icon and star are the only announced icon class ships. Utopia is coming and after star will be another oasis class they said recently. I was shocked how much more expensive than oasis class.

 

Recent itineraries show rcl is moving to do big ships on shorter routes. Wonder currently the newest oasis class being moved to s. Florida to do 3 and 4 days. Other short routes announced. Huge disappointment. People are looking at carnival lol for another line.

Actually a third icon will come out before Oasis #7. 
 

17 hours ago, tidecat said:

Elation already has a drydock scheduled for 2026, and presumably Paradise will shortly follow. Those ships should be in the fleet until at least 2028, if not 2029.

 

The Spirit class was built entirely after 2000, those will be with us well into the next decade. Luminosa should continue into the early 2040s.

 

I suspect the ultimate fate of Tampa, Jacksonville, and Baltimore will lie with more upmarket lines that have smaller ships, like Holland America and Seabourn. The masses will continue sailing from Port Canaveral, Miami, and Galveston.

 

I also think Carnival Cruise Line may pick off some AIDA ships, which may buy the height-restricted ports some time. That would still be a few years down the road if it happens, though.

I don’t think it would make much sense to leave those height restricted ports. Plus, AIDA just announced those smaller ships are getting a total refurbishment.

[firefly333]

10 minutes ago, CruiseAdict218 said:

Actually a third icon will come out before Oasis #7. 
 

Name it. They already announced a "yet unnamed new oasis ship" not a 3rd icon ship. Everyone was surprised including me it wasnt another icon ship. Maybe it's the LNG fuel? Idk but another oasis build has been announced, not another icon build. 

 

https://www.travelweekly.com/Cruise-Travel/Royal-Caribbean-orders-seventh-Oasis-class-ship

 

Also hearing those 3 and 4 pax cabins are sometimes going for less than 2 pax cabins on icon. Maybe they added too many extra 3 and 4 pax cabins for supply and demand. I will pass. A ship designed to hold even more families and kids isnt aimed at me as a solo. I have wonder and utopia booked. Not star.

Edited March 2 by firefly333

[tidecat]

Steel has been cut for the third Icon class ship:

 

https://www.cruisehive.com/actual-construction-begins-on-third-icon-class-cruise-ship/120787

 

Oasis 7 and Icon 3 both appear to be happening. I imagine the financial penalties for canceling either of those would not be justifiable.

[tidecat]

1 hour ago, CruiseAdict218 said:

I don’t think it would make much sense to leave those height restricted ports. Plus, AIDA just announced those smaller ships are getting a total refurbishment.

I had not seen the news on AIDA but it seems like it would take the Sphinx class off the table for Carnival Cruise Line. The Icarus class may still be on table given their refurbishment dates haven't been set.

 

It may be more cost effective to keep Elation and Paradise as far out as 2037 (age 39). If the Spirit class can hang around to age 39, it would be 2040 before Carnival would have to exit one of Jacksonville, Baltimore, or Tampa, and 2048 before they would lose all three ports.

[BlerkOne]

7 hours ago, jerseyjjs said:

 

 

        Princess (Carnival corp.) has cancelled multiple cruises on several ships, namely the newest Sun Princess.  And with RCL selling at over $100/share more than Carnival, it doesn't appear that RCL is any worse off financially than CCL.

Carnival cutback on new builds; RCCL has maybe $10 billion on the books? $10 billion in more debt? When they take delivery of a new ship, they have to cut a big check. It is one reason to delay delivery.

[CruiseAdict218]

4 hours ago, firefly333 said:

Name it. They already announced a "yet unnamed new oasis ship" not a 3rd icon ship. Everyone was surprised including me it wasnt another icon ship. Maybe it's the LNG fuel? Idk but another oasis build has been announced, not another icon build. 

 

https://www.travelweekly.com/Cruise-Travel/Royal-Caribbean-orders-seventh-Oasis-class-ship

 

Also hearing those 3 and 4 pax cabins are sometimes going for less than 2 pax cabins on icon. Maybe they added too many extra 3 and 4 pax cabins for supply and demand. I will pass. A ship designed to hold even more families and kids isnt aimed at me as a solo. I have wonder and utopia booked. Not star.

Royal Caribbean was in talks for Oasis 7 but was put aside when the pandemic hit but anyway, Icon 3 was ordered back in 2019…

https://cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/2019/07/royal-caribbean-inks-deal-for-third-icon-class-ship-for-2025-delivery/

 

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/884887/000110465919075059/tm1926679d1_ex10-1.htm

 

https://maritime-executive.com/article/royal-caribbean-orders-third-icon-class-ship

[CruiseAdict218]

2 hours ago, tidecat said:

I had not seen the news on AIDA but it seems like it would take the Sphinx class off the table for Carnival Cruise Line. The Icarus class may still be on table given their refurbishment dates haven't been set.

 

It may be more cost effective to keep Elation and Paradise as far out as 2037 (age 39). If the Spirit class can hang around to age 39, it would be 2040 before Carnival would have to exit one of Jacksonville, Baltimore, or Tampa, and 2048 before they would lose all three ports.

Refurbishment is set for late 2025-2026

https://cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/2024/02/aida-announces-aida-evolution-drydock-upgrade-program/

 

I guess it will really depend on the conditions each of these ships are in, if they can make it to 39-40 years old. 

[firefly333]

31 minutes ago, CruiseAdict218 said:

Royal Caribbean was in talks for Oasis 7 but was put aside when the pandemic hit but anyway, Icon 3 was ordered back in 2019…

https://cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/2019/07/royal-caribbean-inks-deal-for-third-icon-class-ship-for-2025-delivery/

 

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/884887/000110465919075059/tm1926679d1_ex10-1.htm

 

https://maritime-executive.com/article/royal-caribbean-orders-third-icon-class-ship

I see the dates are all wrong. Icon just started jan 2024, this year. Star august 2025. 

 

Your link says

 

"The ship will join its two sister ships – to be delivered in 2022 and 2024, respectively."

 

icon class and oasis class are built in different ship yards. Since they are still building star, I havent seen any news when a 3rd icon class will be built, but assume after star. 

 

7th oasis class will start after utopia. It could be close which class a yet unnamed and not yet started ship will be finished. I am sure people were surprised with the announcement of a 7th oasis class and not a word lately about a 3rd icon class. We will see which finished first.

[CruiseAdict218]

1 hour ago, firefly333 said:

I see the dates are all wrong. Icon just started jan 2024, this year. Star august 2025. 

 

Your link says

 

"The ship will join its two sister ships – to be delivered in 2022 and 2024, respectively."

 

icon class and oasis class are built in different ship yards. Since they are still building star, I havent seen any news when a 3rd icon class will be built, but assume after star. 

 

7th oasis class will start after utopia. It could be close which class a yet unnamed and not yet started ship will be finished. I am sure people were surprised with the announcement of a 7th oasis class and not a word lately about a 3rd icon class. We will see which finished first.

Dates probably would be wrong because the articles were posted pre-Covid so everything would be pushed back. 
 

But tidecat posted a link the steel cutting already began and the second link I posted was the credit agreement for Icon 3. It’s certainly possible for Icon 3 to be pushed a bit towards 2027 but would still be before Oasis 7. 

[firefly333]

26 minutes ago, CruiseAdict218 said:

Dates probably would be wrong because the articles were posted pre-Covid so everything would be pushed back. 
 

But tidecat posted a link the steel cutting already began and the second link I posted was the credit agreement for Icon 3. It’s certainly possible for Icon 3 to be pushed a bit towards 2027 but would still be before Oasis 7. 

I guess I'll wait and see which is done first. Yes your original link dated 2019 , things have changed since that was posted. Utopia will be here before star so the ship yards have more time for the oasis class ship first. I do know people were surprised at the announcement of oasis #7. 

 

The icon builds are more complicated and much more expensive. I was surprised at how much higher cost icon builds are. Galveston hopes to get it. They were disappointed to get allure back when harmony leaves, so maybe before then there will be news on icon #3. Not that many ports have LNG. I'm still in the we will see which one finishes first.

[bg2310]

I think the logic is that Oasis #7 was ordered because they could likely get it out and delivered before an Icon #3 eventhough Icon #3 was ordered first. Hence, why people were so surprised by it as we expected Icon #3 announcement before another Oasis class build. 

 

Clearly, it's taking longer to build the Icon class ships, between that and the recent inaugural cruise delays for Star. 

 

In any case, RCCL ain't hurting for money with their recent earnings call and record bookings. CCL is definitely hurting more than RCCL from a financial perspective.

 

What an odd thing to suggest finances are at play for the Star delay, as if inaugural sailings aren't commonly delayed (see Carnival Jubilee, Sun Princess). But, I guess not really when you understand the clear history and bias that user has against RCCL and will take any chance they can for a jab even if it's making something up with zero evidence.

 

Edited March 3 by bg2310

[BlerkOne]

Deflecting to Carnival isn't a reason for Royal's problems.

 

But maybe someday the thread will get back to Carnival and small ships and the Gargantuan of the Seas threadjackers can move on.

[firefly333]

8 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

Deflecting to Carnival isn't a reason for Royal's problems.

 

But maybe someday the thread will get back to Carnival and small ships and the Gargantuan of the Seas threadjackers can move on.

If only people would quit dragging royal into the conversation with stupid jabs. Then someone tries to use facts to set the record straight from the person who has to keep taking stupid jabs at royal.

 

Maybe YOU could try and quit mentioning royal if you really wanted to get back to carnival and smaller ships. I personally dont see any cruise lines building smaller ships anytime soon. Except maybe some premium lines, not the mass marketers. 

[ontheweb]

I believe the river cruise lines are still building small ships.

 

NCL is by no means building small ships, but at least the Prima/Viva class is smaller than their last builds before them while other cruise lines seem to be in a competition to build the largerst ships.

[jimbo5544]

6 hours ago, bg2310 said:

I think the logic is that Oasis #7 was ordered because they could likely get it out and delivered before an Icon #3 eventhough Icon #3 was ordered first. Hence, why people were so surprised by it as we expected Icon #3 announcement before another Oasis class build. 

 

Clearly, it's taking longer to build the Icon class ships, between that and the recent inaugural cruise delays for Star. 

 

In any case, RCCL ain't hurting for money with their recent earnings call and record bookings. CCL is definitely hurting more than RCCL from a financial perspective.

 

What an odd thing to suggest finances are at play for the Star delay, as if inaugural sailings aren't commonly delayed (see Carnival Jubilee, Sun Princess). But, I guess not really when you understand the clear history and bias that user has against RCCL and will take any chance they can for a jab even if it's making something up with zero evidence.

 

Not an economics major WAY back i college, but at 1.65 to 2 BILLION per ship, I might question the “not hurting for money” comment, but maybe I get confused at all those zeros.  Not to even mention those other ugly details like lack of ports they can dock on, no tender ports, market saturation.  So any comment on anything (other than “wow”) on royal is bias?

[jerseyjjs]

5 hours ago, BlerkOne said:

Deflecting to Carnival isn't a reason for Royal's problems.

 

But maybe someday the thread will get back to Carnival and small ships and the Gargantuan of the Seas threadjackers can move on.

 

 

As Carnival's XL ships exceed 180,000 gross tonnes.   You really DO have an uncanny bias.

[jimbo5544]

2 minutes ago, jerseyjjs said:

 

 

As Carnival's XL ships exceed 180,000 gross tonnes.   You really DO have an uncanny bias.

Carnival does have three at this size (and another on the books), which by my math….is at 4 at 180K.  I get lazy adding all the RCCL has WELL over that size, maybe you can help.  The point is whether making these monstrosities makes sense.  2 BILLION dollars, do the math on the breakeven.  Add to that, Icon is butt ugly, when I first saw the renderings, I thought it was a joke.  Seeing it reality adds that view.  

[jsglow]

So what I'm taking comfort in is the fact that Carnival's short term plan is to take a Spirit Class over one at a time for an extended dry dock before she begins European service in summer. Last year it was Pride, this year Legend, and next year Miracle. I suspect Spirit herself will go sometime. Frankly, besides the two Fantasy hulls, the most 'obsolete' ships in the fleet are Glory, Liberty and Conquest. I personally think they'll be gone before any of the Spirits.

 

And while Carnival Cruise Line might eventually leave the smaller ships behind, I can't envision the industry doing that. You simply can't 'travel the world' on a mega ship and a market for that will always exist. All one has to do is go to Dun Laoghaire to understand. And while it's true that the industry growth will come from the 'Disneyfication' of cruising, that's really a different product offering and there is a limit. As I said earlier, I'll spend way fewer days at sea annually if my only option is Jubilee and her 3 ports.

 

So the only question is how that 'world traveler' market gets served? The good news is that I won't have to ever know the answer. But there will certainly be an answer.

[tidecat]

15 minutes ago, jsglow said:

So the only question is how that 'world traveler' market gets served? The good news is that I won't have to ever know the answer. But there will certainly be an answer.

Seabourn and Holland America - and those are just the ones owned by Carnival.

 

You have to remember that when Carnival charged you $995 pp in 1985 to sail on the Festivale, that's akin to paying $2,908 today. That may not quite approach Seabourn in terms of pricing, but that's still higher than Holland America in real terms. I'd have some concern about HAL's plans once R-class hits retirement age, but they could keep sub-100K GT ships well into the 2050s.

 

The smaller lines can afford to spend more per lower berth on a ship because they command higher fares.

[jsglow]

I think that's 100% right @tidecat. Cruising in the 2030s is in many ways a completely different product offering than what existed even as recently as the 1990s or 2000s. Economies of scale. Alternative to a land vaca.

[jimbo5544]

51 minutes ago, jsglow said:

I think that's 100% right @tidecat. Cruising in the 2030s is in many ways a completely different product offering than what existed even as recently as the 1990s or 2000s. Economies of scale. Alternative to a land vaca.

Cruising is always evolving.  Some we will like and some not so much.  The mega liner build logic is part of it, the multi line approach Carnival Corp has to fill all customers (CCL, Princess, HAL, Cunnard, Seaborne etc) are all part of their plan. Whether we are happy with the available options is something else again.  

 

We have sailed the Spirit class more than any other CCL class, great class of ships, we have seen Captains proclaim their love also.  That said, there is virtually no chance of CCL bulidig those again.  HAL is the answer for that, their new builds are as close as a Carnival Corp line will get. 

[BlerkOne]

3 minutes ago, jimbo5544 said:

That said, there is virtually no chance of CCL building those again. 

No chance of Carnival building a Spirit class, for example. But I do think a similar size is possible, although it might not resemble what people remember. There would have to be radical changes to control costs.

 

Carnival is trying a somewhat different direction with Carnival Italian Style. They could pick up one or two of the older HAL ships for a test run of a new concept. and maybe a grandson of Vargas.