AlohaLivin Posted February 23 #2801 Share Posted February 23 On 2/1/2024 at 11:56 AM, Engineroom Snipe said: generational transfer of wealth which will assist future bookings. These two “repeat cruisers” don’t intend to leave anything behind! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diesel1973 Posted February 23 #2802 Share Posted February 23 If I plan it right, the last check I write will be to the Undertaker, and it should BOUNCE ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare Engineroom Snipe Posted February 23 #2803 Share Posted February 23 2 minutes ago, diesel1973 said: If I plan it right, the last check I write will be to the Undertaker, and it should BOUNCE ! Now THAT is what you call true life-time financial planning! 😉 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Biker19 Posted February 23 #2804 Share Posted February 23 " Royal Caribbean Group priced its upsized $1.25b private offering of 6.25% senior unsecured notes due 2032. The offering was upsized from $1b. The notes are expected to be issued on or around March 7. Proceeds to redeem higher-cost notes Royal Caribbean intends to use the proceeds, together with cash on hand and/or borrowings under its revolving credit facilities, to redeem all of the outstanding 11.625% senior notes due 2027." Royal Caribbean prices upsized $1.2b notes offering (seatrade-cruise.com) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seville2Cabo Posted February 23 #2805 Share Posted February 23 13 hours ago, grandgeezer said: Where is the dividend coming from? RCL hasn’t paid one in several years. I’ve been in the stock market for over 35 years and reached financial gain way beyond my wildest dreams. I have a 401k, and by law, I have to take a minimal withdrawal every year, for 2024 it’s $58,000+ and that’s just the tip of the iceberg. For those that bought the stock below $20 and held on to it, good for you. But like an economic professor said after someone brought up a similar situation many many years ago “Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn once in awhile”. Long term, cruise line stocks have not been a good investment. Five years ago, if you stuck equal amounts in RCL stock and a S&P 500 mutual fund, as of close of business today, the RCL stock would be up a total of 1.35%. The mutual fund would be up 82.16%. Finally, to get the shareholder obc you have to book a cruise each time to get it. The mutual fund pays capital gains and dividends without another penny out your pocket. You can take it in cash, or reinvest it. I've had RC stock for about 20 years. Average return - 15% - S&P over the same period - under 7%, and that does not include the OBC. Picking the right date can make the number come out any way you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grandgeezer Posted February 23 #2806 Share Posted February 23 2 hours ago, Seville2Cabo said: I've had RC stock for about 20 years. Average return - 15% - S&P over the same period - under 7%, and that does not include the OBC. Picking the right date can make the number come out any way you want. Here’s some new data for you. RCL stock since IPO in 1993. Up 1,235.27 %. S&P 500 Index fund since first offered in 1984. Up 3,141.97%. These numbers are updated as the price changes. This is on msn.com. Where do your numbers come from or are they skewed in your favor? I don’t how you can count shareholder obc as you have to pay a ton of money to get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seville2Cabo Posted February 23 #2807 Share Posted February 23 3 minutes ago, grandgeezer said: Here’s some new data for you. RCL stock since IPO in 1993. Up 1,235.27 %. S&P 500 Index fund since first offered in 1984. Up 3,141.97%. These numbers are updated as the price changes. This is on msn.com. Where do your numbers come from or are they skewed in your favor? I don’t how you can count shareholder obc as you have to pay a ton of money to get it. My numbers are based on when I bought the Royal stock I currently have and the difference if I would have bought a S&P fund. Since the IPO, Royal is up 1,395% versus the S&P at 1.061%. Not sure I understand your point about having to spend money. I was / am going to spend it anyway, so it is just a bonus. I never book a cruise for the OBC or points - we book what we want. The OBC is just a bonus. Royal Caribbean Cruises Return vs. S&P 1 YEAR 5 YEAR 5 YEAR ANNUALIZED SINCE IPO RCL +71.39% +1.35% +0.27% +1,395% S&P +27.46% +82.16% +12.74% +1,061% 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grandgeezer Posted February 23 #2808 Share Posted February 23 43 minutes ago, Seville2Cabo said: My numbers are based on when I bought the Royal stock I currently have and the difference if I would have bought a S&P fund. Since the IPO, Royal is up 1,395% versus the S&P at 1.061%. Not sure I understand your point about having to spend money. I was / am going to spend it anyway, so it is just a bonus. I never book a cruise for the OBC or points - we book what we want. The OBC is just a bonus. Royal Caribbean Cruises Return vs. S&P 1 YEAR 5 YEAR 5 YEAR ANNUALIZED SINCE IPO RCL +71.39% +1.35% +0.27% +1,395% S&P +27.46% +82.16% +12.74% +1,061% This is not comparing apples with apples. You are comparing it to the S&P 500. I’m comparing it to my S&P 500 Index Fund. There is a huge difference, the S&P 500 is based the cost of one share of each. The S&P 500 Index Fund has to own at least one share of each stock but they can load up on the ones they think will make them money. some of their biggest holdings are well into 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelCMTX Posted February 23 #2809 Share Posted February 23 18 hours ago, Engineroom Snipe said: But look at the big picture for many loyal cruisers. You get a $200 credit for each cruise plus dividends and 6.5% increases. This could appear to be quite nice. Three cruises a year and dividends on the minimum stock shares to qualify for a discount gets you about $1000. Haven't seen a dividend since 2020, my RC win isn't OBC but rather all the shares I sold just before things took a dive in early 2022 - in conjunction with buying most of them back when the price was in the $40s and $50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baron Barracuda Posted February 24 #2810 Share Posted February 24 On 2/23/2024 at 9:33 AM, Biker19 said: " Royal Caribbean Group priced its upsized $1.25b private offering of 6.25% senior unsecured notes due 2032. The offering was upsized from $1b. The notes are expected to be issued on or around March 7. Proceeds to redeem higher-cost notes Royal Caribbean intends to use the proceeds, together with cash on hand and/or borrowings under its revolving credit facilities, to redeem all of the outstanding 11.625% senior notes due 2027." Royal Caribbean prices upsized $1.2b notes offering (seatrade-cruise.com) So refinancing only 5% of LTD reduces interest expense $60 million thereby increasing EPS $.20 annually. Lots of further upside ahead as they work to de-leverage the balance sheet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
firefly333 Posted February 24 #2811 Share Posted February 24 Right now they said year over year earnings up 40% which of course cant continue once the current prices are the base. For right now for me it's a buy, but long term I expect growth to slow a lot. I was talking to my broker yesterday. I'm not sure I want to put lots of shares in a long term account at these prices. I'd put them in my trading account where it costs me nothing to trade in and out. We had some treasuries come due yesterday and moved some $$$ into stocks. Bad timing the day after rcl ran up. Couldnt in that account until yesterday. Day before it was more like $114 where I would have bought, not at 122 near top of the current range. Cruise prices cant grow at 40% a year forever, not a bean stalk or nvidia. Yea I know growing earnings 40% isnt exactly the same as prices growing at 40% but certainly related. Even coke is saying they are getting some pushback now on price increases. Expedia thinks travel is leveling out and bad forecast. It's just rcl who says higher higher. (Not counting tech AI). People watching earnings are worried the consumer is pulling back. Buying the store brand instead. Buying a msc cruise instead of rcl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nelblu Posted February 24 #2812 Share Posted February 24 The bigger problem to the economy is the level of debt especially in credit cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
firefly333 Posted February 24 #2813 Share Posted February 24 3 minutes ago, nelblu said: The bigger problem to the economy is the level of debt especially in credit cards. Idk the national debt is also seen as a problem by economists. Watching credit card debt and with things costing more, it's not surprising people borrow more. The level of non repayment on credit cards isnt seen as worrying or visa wouldnt be hitting all time highs. I dont own visa but my cousin does and always saying how well the stock is doing ... 6 month chart V. Visa. Apparently not many worried about credit card debt right now. I'm a chart person. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baron Barracuda Posted February 25 #2814 Share Posted February 25 19 hours ago, firefly333 said: Idk the national debt is also seen as a problem by economists. Watching credit card debt and with things costing more, it's not surprising people borrow more. The level of non repayment on credit cards isnt seen as worrying or visa wouldnt be hitting all time highs. I dont own visa but my cousin does and always saying how well the stock is doing ... 6 month chart V. Visa. Apparently not many worried about credit card debt right now. I'm a chart person. Visa and Mastercard have no credit risk. Balances are carried on books of issuing banks. Visa collects interchange fee from payment processing. Their earnings are driven by $ volume charged, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare livingonthebeach Posted March 21 #2815 Share Posted March 21 Stock price closed at 135.53 yesterday. It's all time historical high. Wish I would have bought some at the all time low of $19 during the pandemic. I missed the boat (pun intended). I did buy some more at 2023 lows back in April so I'm doing OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare island lady Posted March 21 #2816 Share Posted March 21 (edited) I bought during the Covid shutdown. Bought exactly 100 shares to simply get our OBC for each cruise. This was not what my broker wanted me to do, and kept trying to get me to sell it (thinking it was junk). I refused. Since then I think I have received half as much in OBC credits as I paid for the stock. Just last week applied to another 9 booked cruises, including Celebrity. And...of course the stock has doubled since I bought it. My broker is in awe and I love telling him...."nah..nah..na..nah nah". 😄 Edited March 21 by island lady 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
firefly333 Posted March 21 #2817 Share Posted March 21 36 minutes ago, island lady said: I bought during the Covid shutdown. Bought exactly 100 shares to simply get our OBC for each cruise. This was not what my broker wanted me to do, and kept trying to get me to sell it (thinking it was junk). I refused. Since then I think I have received half as much in OBC credits as I paid for the stock. Just last week applied to another 9 booked cruises, including Celebrity. And...of course the stock has doubled since I bought it. My broker is in awe and I love telling him...."nah..nah..na..nah nah". 😄 Almost every stock jumped yesterday but last week a analyst gave it a one year target of 160. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare Engineroom Snipe Posted March 21 #2818 Share Posted March 21 I think demand is still high because people are willing to do discretionary spending even with a higher debt load. As long as people feel secure in their employment, they feel they can manage payments. Many will say this is not the best financial method of paying for a vacation but it is human nature. If I somewhat felt my job is not secure, most if not all of my discretionary spending stops to build my war chest against a lay-off. I do not think Royal stock is going to crash again like it did due to the shut-down. I also do not think Royal stock is going to have the same explosive gains it had during its recovery from its lows. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tlbecker1 Posted March 21 #2819 Share Posted March 21 7 hours ago, firefly333 said: Almost every stock jumped yesterday but last week an analyst gave it a one year target of 160. We sold some yesterday, but will always have at least 100 shares. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bruzin_for_a_cruizin Posted March 22 #2820 Share Posted March 22 Currently holding 180 shares @ avg price of $79.89 after I sold off 20 shares at $133. I don't really need the cash right now, but I'm thinking of selling 20 shares a day every day it stays above $135. Doing the math, if I sold 100 shares at $135, I would pocket $5500 in profit. I would have to take 55 cruises to make that back in Shareholder Benefit... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
firefly333 Posted March 22 #2821 Share Posted March 22 2 minutes ago, bruzin_for_a_cruizin said: Currently holding 180 shares @ avg price of $79.89 after I sold off 20 shares at $133. I don't really need the cash right now, but I'm thinking of selling 20 shares a day every day it stays above $135. Doing the math, if I sold 100 shares at $135, I would pocket $5500 in profit. I would have to take 55 cruises to make that back in Shareholder Benefit... Or sell 80 shares ns hold 100. New 1 year target set of $160. You can tell here pricing is holding and stock doing well. Check the last minute sales ..if it gets soft sell the rest until you need it for obc. Selling it all now to me is gamble you can buy it back lower later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare xpcdoojk Posted March 23 #2822 Share Posted March 23 On 2/22/2024 at 8:59 PM, grandgeezer said: Where is the dividend coming from? RCL hasn’t paid one in several years. I’ve been in the stock market for over 35 years and reached financial gain way beyond my wildest dreams. I have a 401k, and by law, I have to take a minimal withdrawal every year, for 2024 it’s $58,000+ and that’s just the tip of the iceberg. For those that bought the stock below $20 and held on to it, good for you. But like an economic professor said after someone brought up a similar situation many many years ago “Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn once in awhile”. Long term, cruise line stocks have not been a good investment. Five years ago, if you stuck equal amounts in RCL stock and a S&P 500 mutual fund, as of close of business today, the RCL stock would be up a total of 1.35%. The mutual fund would be up 82.16%. Finally, to get the shareholder obc you have to book a cruise each time to get it. The mutual fund pays capital gains and dividends without another penny out your pocket. You can take it in cash, or reinvest it. Congrats on your 2 million in 401K…. Buying a million worth of RCL is a bad investment, buying 100 shares and cruising a lot… is a no-brainer. 95% of the people ( I am guessing but bet I am right) own more than 100 and less than 200 shares. If you cruise 4 to 5 times a year you could make gains of more than about any regular investment I know of. That said, buying a stock like RCL is not a real investment it is a fun activity that you enjoy. The Shareholder benefit while it is combinable is wonderful luxury. JC<——— spent a lot of time in gradual school in economics (no misspelling). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seville2Cabo Posted March 23 #2823 Share Posted March 23 6 minutes ago, xpcdoojk said: Congrats on your 2 million in 401K…. Buying a million worth of RCL is a bad investment, buying 100 shares and cruising a lot… is a no-brainer. 95% of the people ( I am guessing but bet I am right) own more than 100 and less than 200 shares. If you cruise 4 to 5 times a year you could make gains of more than about any regular investment I know of. That said, buying a stock like RCL is not a real investment it is a fun activity that you enjoy. The Shareholder benefit while it is combinable is wonderful luxury. JC<——— spent a lot of time in gradual school in economics (no misspelling). I’m guessing with that required withdraw, less than $1.5m Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare xpcdoojk Posted March 23 #2824 Share Posted March 23 I just did a math guess of 3% required withdrawal, and rounded it up to the next million. We don’t know when the poster started withdrawing so 3%, 4%, 5% all are options. Maybe even 2%. I am not an expert on this, but yeah, you are probably correct. I, personally, can’t think why I would feel the need to share this information, but hey, it is all good. 🤣. Nothing scary out here on the internet. jc 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grandgeezer Posted March 23 #2825 Share Posted March 23 12 minutes ago, xpcdoojk said: Congrats on your 2 million in 401K…. Buying a million worth of RCL is a bad investment, buying 100 shares and cruising a lot… is a no-brainer. 95% of the people ( I am guessing but bet I am right) own more than 100 and less than 200 shares. If you cruise 4 to 5 times a year you could make gains of more than about any regular investment I know of. That said, buying a stock like RCL is not a real investment it is a fun activity that you enjoy. The Shareholder benefit while it is combinable is wonderful luxury. JC<——— spent a lot of time in gradual school in economics (no misspelling). What makes you think I have $2,000,000 in my 401k? Not even close. The RMD is based on your age and account balance at the close of business on 12/31 of the previous year. Last year it was only $47,000. I have never owned RCL stock and never will, even when it dropped below $20. I’ve been doing stocks for over 35 and have been successful far better than I ever imagined. For me to buy a stock, it has to be a product I believe in and the management team has past experience in fairly treating their employees and customers, RCL is O for 2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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