RCL down 65% - Is it a buy?

[LMaxwell]

4 minutes ago, XuGator said:

Absolutely a buy at 33.

 

 

 

People were saying it was a great buy at 80.  A week ago it was at 67.  It is TOXIC at 33.  Wait it is going lower.  There is no doubt about it.  

[PTC DAWG]

54 minutes ago, Life Buoy said:

Wouldn't touch a cruise line at this point! This is a serious threat and I just don't believe that some of the lines will survive as we currently know them. There may be some mergers and new build  and renovation plans will be put on hold. Issuing Future Cruise Credit will not create new passengers, but simply transfer existing passengers to other cruises. They will gain only if some would allow their FCC to expire unused. We can only see the tip of the iceberg and I'm not willing to place a bet at this time. 

You can be certain some of the FCC will expire.  As a general rule, about 10-15% of all gift cards are never redeemed.  I would expect the FCC to be similar.  

Edited March 12, 2020 by PTC DAWG

[PelicanLvr]

6 minutes ago, XuGator said:

Absolutely a buy at 33.

 

"Be greedy when others are fearful and be fearful when others are greedy"

 

 

That's a great quote!

[LMaxwell]

11 hours ago, tallyho8 said:

 NCLH because it is almost impossible for them to fall much further before they go belly up

 

I fixed that for you 

[XuGator]

2 minutes ago, LMaxwell said:

 

People were saying it was a great buy at 80.  A week ago it was at 67.  It is TOXIC at 33.  Wait it is going lower.  There is no doubt about it.  

Well there should be doubt because its up to 36 now.

[LMaxwell]

2 minutes ago, XuGator said:

Well there should be doubt because its up to 36 now.

Each day this week has seen double digit drops and worsening news.  

 

When they cut dividends you'll see it drop more.  When our borders are closed to ships you'll see it drop more.  Too much downside.  

 

No doubt this is getting hammered.  Double digit percentage drops every day this week 

[Life Buoy]

24 minutes ago, XuGator said:

Absolutely a buy at 33.

 

"Be greedy when others are fearful and be fearful when others are greedy"

 

 

I guess you got it since it's fell below 33.

[Jim_Iain]

I always said it got back down to $32 I would buy more.    With all the negative news and cruise lines cancelling cruises I am holding off until RCL tests it bottom 2 or 3 times.   Still too much risk out there.    Even during 911 it hit a historic low of $6.00

[cruisingnewtoit]

I think I'm going to buy Disney stock instead of Cruise stock because it's probably going to go low. I still might buy RCL in the low teens. 

 

Sadly I had bought NCL before the virus 😥.

[Cruise Junky]

Giving it a very wide berth

 

https://www.ccn.com/the-u-s-stock-market-crash-will-bankrupt-these-3-companies/

[morfred]

After the 2008-2009 recession..... RCL increased 340% in value from March 2009 to Jan 2010 . Don't try to buy at the bottom because nobody knows where that is. It could be right now. In the LONG term I think it will be fine.

[Orator]

33 minutes ago, Cruise Junky said:

Giving it a very wide berth

 

https://www.ccn.com/the-u-s-stock-market-crash-will-bankrupt-these-3-companies/

Thank you for posting this article. I've said from my soapbox that Celebrity's shift from a passenge centered focus to a focus on the bottom line would be successful in the short run, but not in the long run. The Business Roundtable has concluded that businesses that are most successful have a consumer focus. A former head of the Loyalty Program first told me about the shift several years ago. Since then we've seen cuts in how the most loyal passengers have been treated and a downgrading of food and other things for the non Suite passenger. I've benefitted by some of the changes, but question them from a business standpoint. If you read my past comments I believe that you'll find my statements consistent. I agree with what the article says about the spending choices of RCL, but not the conclusion that bankruptcy is eneviable. I think that RCL and Celebrity can do quite well if they refocus on their passenger and the quality of the experience. If they try to make up for lost revenue by lowering their costs and raising fares they will face bankruptcy. They really have an opportunity to decide what their focus should be. I hope they make the best choices for I love their officers and crew and are thinking of them at this time. Now off my soapbox and a pledge not to comment any further.

Edited March 12, 2020 by Orator

[Fly and Sail]

Buy at 5 bucks a share. Then claim shareholders discount.

[Life Buoy]

2 minutes ago, Fly and Sail said:

Buy at 5 bucks a share. Then claim shareholders discount.

I bet that discounts, shareholder credit and dividends will end or reduced at any minute. Then you'll be able to get RCL @ $5.00 or less. They may also need to suspend spending plans and still some ships at a discounted price. 

[rimmit]

The blood bath for today is over.  Down to $30.54.  Still waiting for lower to close my short before I buy back in if I buy back in....   starting to look grim for RCL.

Edited March 12, 2020 by rimmit

[molemaui]

At this point it's gambling not investing. 

 

I guess you could consider the OBC non taxable dividends. 

[shipshape sam]

 For sure if RCL eliminates dividend, that will drive stock price downward.  I am concerned that they paid so much of their cash flow to dividends per the article along with stock buyback.  They also are in an industry that is a high end want.  There is not any aspect of a need.    I was CFO for a few years of  small company selling a high end need and I tried to get the owners to understand they were just one issue from a crash.  They did not listen.....

 

Hope they navigate this crisis and thrive! 

Edited March 12, 2020 by shipshape sam

[shipshape sam]

5 minutes ago, molemaui said:

At this point it's gambling not investing. 

 

I guess you could consider the OBC non taxable dividends. 

LOL.  They have to be sailing though.

[hvbaskey]

I have - not much, just a few.   If it goes below $20, then I’m in for more 😉