RCL down 65% - Is it a buy?

[PelicanLvr]

The stock of Royal Caribbean International (parent company of Celebrity) is down about 65% from it's recent high of 135, and is now under 45.  That's a loss of about 65%.  

 

Obviously, times are very hard for the cruise industry now, and not much relief in sight.  But,...

 

Would you buy here?  Tempting.

[HS2BS]

I have a buy in @24 1/2 not done with its slide!

 

Hal

[Georgia_Peaches]

Agree.  It has not yet hit the bottom.

[az_tchr]

Catch a falling knife?

 

No thank you.

 

Think about the worst case scenario. What is it worth then?

 

$20-25 - maybe.  With zero dividend because of loan covenants on EBITDA debt coverage.

[jalves]

47 minutes ago, PelicanLvr said:

Would you buy here?  

I did

[Orator]

Not yet! Avoid falling into a dividend trap. 

[Jim_Iain]

I think the stock is nearing a bottom but am not buying yet until it tests it bottoms a couple times.   I think there is more downside risk at the moment.  A couple events could crater the cruise stocks further -  e.g. passing the requirement posted today that all guests over 70 will require a doctors note, Vancouver shutting down to cruise ships (proposed earlier this week),   further European Ports being close.   

 

Just my idea. 

[George C]

I will think about it if it gets under 30, there are some bargains out there, but doubt market has hit bottom yet, glad most of our money is safe. 

[sandc4e]

If you buy in, be in for the long haul could take a couple years to come back.  

 

[Oville]

3 hours ago, Jim_Iain said:

I think the stock is nearing a bottom but am not buying yet until it tests it bottoms a couple times.   I think there is more downside risk at the moment.  A couple events could crater the cruise stocks further -  e.g. passing the requirement posted today that all guests over 70 will require a doctors note, Vancouver shutting down to cruise ships (proposed earlier this week),   further European Ports being close.   

 

Just my idea. 

And now no travel between Europe and US except the UK.

[Lilactime]

Not yet. Way too much uncertainty.

[cruisetonowhere10]

Not buying anything yet but watching with curiousity. 

Edited March 12, 2020 by cruisetonowhere10

[NutsAboutGolf]

6 hours ago, PelicanLvr said:

The stock of Royal Caribbean International (parent company of Celebrity) is down about 65% from it's recent high of 135, and is now under 45.  That's a loss of about 65%.  

 

Obviously, times are very hard for the cruise industry now, and not much relief in sight.  But,...

 

Would you buy here?  Tempting.

 

You should probably research investment forums, not a cruise forum when it comes to your money.  😄

[tallyho8]

I would not buy RCCL stock now. It has the possibility of falling much further now. I am considering buying CCL or NCLH because it is almost impossible for them to fall much further before they start coming up.

[Im A Happy Cruiser]

What are the perks (rewards) for owning RCI stock if you sail Celebrity exclusively as I do?  Do you get a certain % off cruise fare?  Do you need to own a certain amount of stock for it to be beneficial?  I'm not much of an investor but would seriously consider buying this stock when it gets a little lower if I understood the benefits of such an investment.  Any comments regarding this would be appreciated.

[rimmit]

7 hours ago, tallyho8 said:

I would not buy RCCL stock now. It has the possibility of falling much further now. I am considering buying CCL or NCLH because it is almost impossible for them to fall much further before they start coming up.

I would maybe avoid NCL,  they are staring down the barrel of bankruptcy right now and that’s why it’s dropped so much the last day or so.  25 percent drop yesterday.  

Of the three lines I think CCL is the most liquid and the safest.  RCL is starting to get a little risky but I don’t think it’s as bad off as NCL.

[Stateroom_Sailor]

37 minutes ago, rimmit said:

I would maybe avoid NCL,  they are staring down the barrel of bankruptcy right now and that’s why it’s dropped so much the last day or so.  25 percent drop yesterday.  

Of the three lines I think CCL is the most liquid and the safest.  RCL is starting to get a little risky but I don’t think it’s as bad off as NCL.

 

100% agree.  We sold our CCL stock at $44 a few weeks ago after Diamond Princess, currently at $18.50.  I will definitely scoop my 100 shares back and then some before the end, RCL too if they hang in there.

[rimmit]

Sold off everything 2/24.  Been dabling in day trading since.  Up about 10 percent with all the swings.  Probably gonna ride the short as low as I think it goes at this point and get out and buy a couple 100 shares of each, except NCL.  May just do 100 NCL or maybe more based on how awful not awful they loo at that time.  Figure at the rate they are going they may get delisted.  If that happens will probably buy the minimum to at least get the OBC as the OBC benefit will likely pay for itself after 1 cruise (if we even get to that one cruise before they go bankrupt).

Edited March 12, 2020 by rimmit

[sandc4e]

Pre-Market opening down to $33 WOW!

[PelicanLvr]

3 minutes ago, sandc4e said:

Pre-Market opening down to $33 WOW!

Wow Indeed!

[sanger727]

eh, not yet. The cases are just starting to kick off in the US. Viking has shut down operations all together until May. The president is just starting with travel bans and increased cruise ship rules (apparently it may soon be that anyone over 70 needs a doctors note to travel). I don't think we have any idea of where the bottom is yet.

[sandc4e]

Princess has also shut down cruises for 60 days.

 

[vickykay]

Waiting also.   Several years back it was down to around $5.  Kicked ourselves for not buying a few hundred shares!

[Life Buoy]

Wouldn't touch a cruise line at this point! This is a serious threat and I just don't believe that some of the lines will survive as we currently know them. There may be some mergers and new build  and renovation plans will be put on hold. Issuing Future Cruise Credit will not create new passengers, but simply transfer existing passengers to other cruises. They will gain only if some would allow their FCC to expire unused. We can only see the tip of the iceberg and I'm not willing to place a bet at this time. 

[XuGator]

Absolutely a buy at 33.

 

"Be greedy when others are fearful and be fearful when others are greedy"