Ideas to restart people cruising over coming months

[iancal]

An argument over mortality rates does nothing whatsoever to convince me that it would be just fine to book a cruise on 03-14-2020 or within the next six months for that matter...and probably longer.

 

This does not mean that we will not travel.  We may.   It depends how this situation evolves.

 

But we are certainly not foolish enough to consider booking, or embarking on cruise that starts in the next two or three months.

 

We are in our late 60's.  We travel frequently and never pay that much attention to some of the politically inspired travel advisories  some people get excited about.  But we do pay attention to this and similar health related issues.  Just as we do noro or anything else that could ruin a cruise for us.  Or worse.

 

Nor are we the type of people who do something foolish because of bravado or an attractive price and then try to blame someone else for our predicament if it goes pear shaped..  We weigh up risks and as travelers who typically buy one way tickets, we always have a plan B, and usually a plan C.   

Edited March 20, 2020 by iancal

[npcl]

2 hours ago, TAD2005 said:

Yes, the death toll is 10 times higher.  For the seasonal flu, the rate is usually 0.1 %.   So far, for corona, the rate is now 1%, which is 10 times 0.1%.   And that 1% rate keeps falling as more and more people are tested.   The US rate was as high as 4% or 6% only a week ago, because very little testing was being done.   When your base sample of tested persons is very low, and unknown, and that is tallied against the deaths (which are a known number), you get a high percentage.   As more and more are tested, the rate will continue to fall below that 1% present rate.

For some unknown reason, the media has focused like a laser beam on this virus, especially in this politically charged time, unlike they have never done when hundreds of thousands die every year of seasonal flu. 

 

 

The 1% range is pretty solid.  There is starting to be papers published using fully tested sample populations.  That means that they are based on accurate denominators.  One paper did the analysis on the Diamond and then adjusted for demographics.  It came up with .91%(though since that paper was written another Diamond patient has died so it might need to be adjusted upward..  There is a paper in China that went it and took the information from an entire town where everyone was tested.  It came up with a slightly higher number in the 1.2% range.  

 

Since these are using entirely sampled populations that are large enough to be statistically significant it is unlikely that the numbers will fall much below that until there are improvements in treatments

 

The most important factor is if you look at the patients infected.  With the flu the impact on hospitals  with flu may 1% of those infected have a hospital stay and that lasts less than 7 days. So on average for every person that gets the flu you use .08 hospital days.  That number is enough to stress hospitals during the flu season.

 

With Covid-19  the percentage in the hospital is about 10% (this is also from studies with fully tested populations).  The average hospital stay is longer than 4 weeks.  This means that for every person that contracts Covid-19 the consumption of hospital resources is 2.8 days.  Per infected patient Covid-19 uses 35 times more hospital time.  In addition most Covid-19 cases are pneumonia requiring advanced medical equipment such as ventilators.  New York with a little over 10,000 patients  is already running out of equipment.

 

To put it simply Covid-19 is more infectious than the flu if you had an infected population of the same size as the flu, 45 million your would have around 450,000 deaths, and 4.5 million in the hospital using 126 million hospital days (over 1/3 of full US  Hospital capacity for a year) .  Considering that the US has less than 1 million hospital  beds and far far less than that when it comes to advanced medical equipment.

 

If this gets loose and not contained the US hospital system can very easily get overwhelmed and if it does the death rate will certainly go higher than the 1% range as Italy is finding out.  The doctors in NY are indicating that they are rapidly running out of ventilators.  Once they are all in use (remember that a patient on them will be one them for several days around 2 weeks at a minimum.  So once they are all in use than they will have to go to a triage system and have to pick who gets the ventilator and who goes without and most likely dies.

 

That is why all of this action is being taken. 

 

One additional fact mean time to death is 14 days after onset of symptoms. with a range of 2 to 41 days.

So the total number mortality rate has to be looked at in terms of the full timeline note just how many have died and been infected to date.

Edited March 21, 2020 by npcl

[npcl]

2 hours ago, TAD2005 said:

What a depressing bunch of posts.   The regular, seasonal flu kills tens of thousands every year and hardly generates a note on page 20 of the newspapers.    People bemoaning that China had 28 new cases in one day.  OMG !!!!   But remember, China has well over a BILLION people.   I don't know how many zeros after the decimal point we would need to show that percentage.   I'm for a wait and see approach.   

Since we are talking about cruise the reason why the 28 cases are important is because 1 patient from Hong Kong infected the Diamond when HK had around that number in total patients.

 

Do you think ports are going to let cruise ships in if there is any chance at all that passengers might be infected.  Even if the case numbers are low in a country or port area there is still risk that one person that comes on board might be infected and have it spread to a number of others during the cruise.

 

So in application to a discussion about when cruise lines will restart a discussion about risk to passengers on a ship, even in a control where spread might be fairly well controlled is relevant.

[kazu]

2 hours ago, TAD2005 said:

Yes, the death toll is 10 times higher.  For the seasonal flu, the rate is usually 0.1 %.   So far, for corona, the rate is now 1%, which is 10 times 0.1%.   And that 1% rate keeps falling as more and more people are tested.   The US rate was as high as 4% or 6% only a week ago, because very little testing was being done.   When your base sample of tested persons is very low, and unknown, and that is tallied against the deaths (which are a known number), you get a high percentage.   As more and more are tested, the rate will continue to fall below that 1% present rate.

For some unknown reason, the media has focused like a laser beam on this virus, especially in this politically charged time, unlike they have never done when hundreds of thousands die every year of seasonal flu. 

 

 

 

I really don’t understand your response at all, I’m sorry.

The death toll is the death toll.  Yes, the % is higher in the U.S, as you aren’t testing enough but that will ever bring it down to the flu “influenza” level of .1%

Death toll has NOT fallen below 1% that I have seen but I am not about to get into an argument on this.  To blame the media for this is ridiculous,  this is a serious outbreak and people need to be informed.  We need to learn to watch less per day to keep from getting anxious but still watch enough to be informed 😉.  We are in a state of emergency here with most businesses shut down.  We are trying to stop the spread now not wait.  

And that’s what we should all be doing.  this is a serious issue.  Remember the Spanish Flu?  It killed 1,000’s.  This is already doing that.

 

Stay home.  Self isolate and self distance when you are out.  And DO listen to the media a bit as they have doctors on who are knowledgeable and offer sound advice.

Stay safe and healthy all

[sail7seas]

On 3/17/2020 at 7:15 PM, DAllenTCY said:

The best of your suggestions is to lower the single supplement.

 

As far as parking, in some cases the port owns and operates the lot.

 

David

 

 

 

IMO,

 

Aside from the obvious...    great prices for wonderful itineraries.y

A big dr aw might be  as many embarkation/debark ports near highly populated  (pockets) of  'known cruise.    rSo many of u s,  will not tolerate the ugliness of air travel any more.  I  would cruise more if I could  get    to ports without flying an think  hedfr are  ogthers   like me.  To my mind, air travel has become  intolerablre and swill not put ujp with it

 

 

 

 There  was some talk a while back a bout Salem  and/or  Gloucester  ,  Massachusetts   being userd as embark  potrs.    The region would be delighted

There   has been chit chat  here on CC from time to time for ships porting in  Iceland and Greeenland  ,,  Voila..........  'Salem,  Gloucester

 

 

 

 

 

 

sail.noordam@gmail.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

f

[JeffElizabeth]

On 3/17/2020 at 4:50 PM, Spire2000 said:

The answer is a whole lot simpler:

 

Make prices cheaper for the first little while. People won't be able to help themselves.

Plus Americans are going to be much more poor coming out of this. Can't believe how bad some of the projected unemployment numbers are. My 401K has been hit hard.

[rj42]

The problem as I see it is that CA and Seattle are the centers of major outbreaks, so unless things improve dramatically, they're not going to want any cruise ships. So whatever the lines do, it doesn't make any difference of cities don't want them and if there is any risk of infection on board. I'd love no single supplement, but I'm not getting on a ship if I have to stand against other people for a lifeboat drill, and I'm not really comfortable getting stuck at sea for a month like the Jewel and Maasdam, or even worse, getting stuck on a ship with an outbreak and forcibly quarantined on sea and then land. Social distancing and isolation and boredom is bad enough on land now, with a house and grocery stores to visit, being stuck on a ship where every cough or sneeze is potentially deadly is simply intolerable to contemplate now, and I imagine it is for most of the potential cruise population, especially for those who have lost jobs or face financial uncertainty, or have lost 30% or more of their retirement nest egg (or like me, was foolish enough to buy Carnival stock just to get a cruise credit). Right now cruise lines are the equivalent of flights after 9/11, where people were afraid to get on board. Whether that changes depends more on pandemic spread and government and local policy, as well as fears, public perception, and the state of the economy and stock market than anything the cruise lines do. 

 

The only short-term option I could think of for now would for Alaska to be the start and end point of a cruise, since they haven't had a serious outbreak, social distancing is much easier, and they have a big financial stake in cruise tourism. Then it would be a matter of bending the law and stopping for a bit in Vancouver harbor by all the cargo ships and calling it a port stop, or persuading some place like Nanaimo to accept a lot of money to let ships tie up without letting anyone off. 

 

The other compelling way to get masses back on cruise ships is a simple advertising slogan.."Hey we have lots of toilet paper and Purell!". 

[Wehwalt]

My brother flew the first day flights were allowed after 9/11. Possibly those were the most secure flights ever. For cruises it is different. Many people will not get on board if they think there is a significant risk of someone else's sniffle transforming the dream cruise into a nightmare, stuck at sea in confinement, or on land in quarantine. Despite screening, despite precautions, how is that not going to be a risk for the foreseeable future?

Edited March 21, 2020 by Wehwalt

[KirkNC]

4 hours ago, kazu said:

 

I really don’t understand your response at all, I’m sorry.

The death toll is the death toll.  Yes, the % is higher in the U.S, as you aren’t testing enough but that will ever bring it down to the flu “influenza” level of .1%

Death toll has NOT fallen below 1% that I have seen but I am not about to get into an argument on this.  To blame the media for this is ridiculous,  this is a serious outbreak and people need to be informed.  We need to learn to watch less per day to keep from getting anxious but still watch enough to be informed 😉.  We are in a state of emergency here with most businesses shut down.  We are trying to stop the spread now not wait.  

And that’s what we should all be doing.  this is a serious issue.  Remember the Spanish Flu?  It killed 1,000’s.  This is already doing that.

 

Stay home.  Self isolate and self distance when you are out.  And DO listen to the media a bit as they have doctors on who are knowledgeable and offer sound advice.

Stay safe and healthy all

Actually the Spanish flu deaths estimates are somewhere between 30-50 million.

[Doubt It]

14 hours ago, slidergirl said:

OK.  Allow me to interject a tad of humor to this:

 

All it will take for me to cruise again is:

1) it's safe again to cruise, really, truly safe, not some talking head saying it's OK

2) someone starts a <insert a name of one of those site that let you go and fund someone> to pay for the cruise.

 

Since I'm one of those who has lost their jobs to due this, GFM is going to be the only way I'm doing anything other then staying at home or camping...

 

Sorry to hear slidergirl about the loss of employment, hopefully you can hang on.

 

On the flag of convenience recommendation, this should be a condition of any cruise industry bailout. 

 

The cruise lines want the least government oversight, have benefited financially from it, but then want a big handout when the going gets tough - really cruise lines. You have been making money hand over fist (not much from me and likely none in the future) and now you are whining. Really, get your big boy/girl pants on. 

 

HAL sending requests to book cruises and HAL reps calling people to book - this industry sector is the height of arrogance.

 

While I am not an American, I have sent this idea to President Trump and the Republican Party (thanks cbr663, tell your wife she is amazing).  I would urge others to send this condition to their elected representatives.

 

Currently busy investigating Globus tours - amazing way to see the world in a smaller format configuration.  Got some bookmarked.

 

 

 

[cruisemom42]

26 minutes ago, Doubt It said:

 

Currently busy investigating Globus tours - amazing way to see the world in a smaller format configuration.  Got some bookmarked.

 

 

Because sitting on a bus for hours in close proximity with 24-40 other passengers sounds so appealing right now?  

 

I did some bus tours when I was younger and on most of them once 1-2 people started coughing, the whole bus eventually caught it.

[iancal]

People have travel choices.  Cruising is one on many travel or vacation alternatives.

 

I believe that cruising will probably be the very last to even start to recover, let alone recover completely.  There is little doubt in my mind that we will start travelling again  long before we start cruising again.

Edited March 21, 2020 by iancal

[dockman]

So there are about 277 cruise ships according to CLIA.

 

How many of them have actually had a corona case?  I know of maybe 5 princess, 1 holland,  1 egypt river, and perhaps a few more?  Anybody have the actual stats?

 

How many hotels have had a corona case?  Don't know as don't think it has been reported.

 

Yes i understand that Princess cases spread quickly but then again so have a lot of non cruise cases.

 

If  a Hilton Hotel had 25 cases , and a few employees transferred to another Hilton and it had cases, would everybody be avoiding all Hiltons?

 

Not interested in "arguing" the point but might be good to try and keep a bit of perspective as we all try to determine what it all means for future travel plans.

[1ANGELCAT]

HAL Never had a confirmed case !

[dockman]

16 minutes ago, 1ANGELCAT said:

HAL Never had a confirmed case !

yes correct. There was one guy from hawaii who was on westerdam then flew back to hawaii and then tested positive and all over news here so lot of speculation that he got infected on ship though could and probably was infected at airport or on flight.

[slidergirl]

33 minutes ago, dockman said:

So there are about 277 cruise ships according to CLIA.

 

How many of them have actually had a corona case?  I know of maybe 5 princess, 1 holland,  1 egypt river, and perhaps a few more?  Anybody have the actual stats?

 

How many hotels have had a corona case?  Don't know as don't think it has been reported.

 

Yes i understand that Princess cases spread quickly but then again so have a lot of non cruise cases.

 

If  a Hilton Hotel had 25 cases , and a few employees transferred to another Hilton and it had cases, would everybody be avoiding all Hiltons?

 

Not interested in "arguing" the point but might be good to try and keep a bit of perspective as we all try to determine what it all means for future travel plans.

People ARE avoiding all Hiltons.  And Marriotts, and Hyatts, and little boutique hotels...  And we employees have either been told to "take a few months off without pay" or outright terminated (I was terminated).   No one knows how many hotels have had a case of COVID-19 - people come and go, not like on a cruise ship.  In my resort town, a bounce at one of our bars tested positive.  He had been nowhere but home and his job.  He had to great hundreds of tourists each night, handled hundreds of IDs each night.  One of those tourists infected him.  Where was that tourist staying?  At one of our local hotels.   My little condo project that I worked at went from all 40 units full and booked through the end of the season to everyone cancelled out and only 2 owners staying in house because they don't want to fly home to California or Florida - in a 3 day span.   That's why we are self-isolating - we had contact with so many tourists in our jobs in the restaurants, bars, and hotels that we can't be positive we didn't have contact.  So, you may not have a "documented" case on a cruise ship, because not everyone in the world is being tested, you have no way of knowing you had someone is infected but asymptomatic onboard who can spread COVID-19 to others.  

 

As far as the cruise bailout:  I agree that major changes must be made by the cruise companies if they want that bailout.  At a minimum, they should be required to re-flag 51% of their ships to the US and be required to adhere to all US laws and guidelines for cruise ships.  If they don't want to, then don't take the money.   But, with the friendship between a certain cruise owner and a certain high-ranking government official, I bet that HAL will come out of it with cash in hand...

Edited March 21, 2020 by slidergirl

[iancal]

You completely missed the point.  This is NOT a HAL issue.  This is a cruise industry issue.  

 

It makes no difference that HAL has not had a confirmed case IMHO.  

 

Do you really believe that the public will think oh, lets avoid cruising on all cruise lines except HAL because to date HAL has not had a confirmed case that we know about?  I don't think so.

 

[dockman]

8 minutes ago, iancal said:

You completely missed the point.  This is NOT a HAL issue.  This is a cruise industry issue.  

 

It makes no difference that HAL has not had a confirmed case IMHO.  

 

Do you really believe that the public will think oh, lets avoid cruising on all cruise lines except HAL because to date HAL has not had a confirmed case that we know about?  I don't think so.

 

i believe she was simply correcting my post saying 1 case on HAL....and i don't know who u may be referring to in your "do you really believe the public will think...." part....Don't see anyone saying that.

[slidergirl]

5 hours ago, Doubt It said:

 

Sorry to hear slidergirl about the loss of employment, hopefully you can hang on.

 

On the flag of convenience recommendation, this should be a condition of any cruise industry bailout. 

 

The cruise lines want the least government oversight, have benefited financially from it, but then want a big handout when the going gets tough - really cruise lines. You have been making money hand over fist (not much from me and likely none in the future) and now you are whining. Really, get your big boy/girl pants on. 

 

HAL sending requests to book cruises and HAL reps calling people to book - this industry sector is the height of arrogance.

 

While I am not an American, I have sent this idea to President Trump and the Republican Party (thanks cbr663, tell your wife she is amazing).  I would urge others to send this condition to their elected representatives.

 

Currently busy investigating Globus tours - amazing way to see the world in a smaller format configuration.  Got some bookmarked.

 

 

 

Thanks.  I'm trying to roll with it while in self-isolation.  My 401K did take a bit hit, so instead of semi-retiring and only working during Winter, I'm probably going to have to keep working year-round for at least another year.  I seem to never have good luck when big financial/health events hit the country...

 

Doubt It: I don't know if you are female, but if you are, please look into AdventureWomen.  Great trips all around the world with very small groups (no more than 20 and I never had more than 14 on my trips with them).  It's been in business for 3 decades and always mentioned in various travel sites and magazines as one of the best in the business.  

[cbr663]

6 hours ago, Doubt It said:

 

Sorry to hear slidergirl about the loss of employment, hopefully you can hang on.

 

On the flag of convenience recommendation, this should be a condition of any cruise industry bailout. 

 

The cruise lines want the least government oversight, have benefited financially from it, but then want a big handout when the going gets tough - really cruise lines. You have been making money hand over fist (not much from me and likely none in the future) and now you are whining. Really, get your big boy/girl pants on. 

 

HAL sending requests to book cruises and HAL reps calling people to book - this industry sector is the height of arrogance.

 

While I am not an American, I have sent this idea to President Trump and the Republican Party (thanks cbr663, tell your wife she is amazing).  I would urge others to send this condition to their elected representatives.

 

Currently busy investigating Globus tours - amazing way to see the world in a smaller format configuration.  Got some bookmarked.

 

 

 

Something needs to be done to correct the loop holes with cruise lines flags of convenience.  I read an article yesterday that stated that the Canadian Gov't is currently monitoring 70 cruise ships that have Canadians on board and that are being refused to dock by different countries.  It doesn't seem that anyone has the actual number of total cruise ships that are sailing and being refused docking.

[sail7seas]

  A "Cruise   bail out"  is  a restaurant, hotel, taxi, souvenir shop bailout for all embarka tion ports.  Those  cities need heads in hotel beds and persons eating in restaurants, tipping wait  staff, taxi drivers etc   Tour guides, sales taxes  and on   and  on ...

 

 

 

 

[sail7seas]

28 minutes ago, sail7seas said:

  A "Cruise   bail out"  is  a restaurant, hotel, taxi, souvenir shop bailout for all embarka tion ports.  Those  cities need heads in hotel beds and persons eating in restaurants, tipping wait  staff, taxi drivers etc   Tour guides, sales taxes  and on   and  on ...

 

 

•  

• Re
•  

Posted 18 hours ago

 

 

 

IMO,

 

Aside from the obvious...    great prices for wonderful itineraries.

A big dr aw might be  as many embarkation/debark ports near highly populated  (pockets) of  'known cruise.   rSo many of u s,  will not tolerate the ugliness of air travel any more.  I  would cruise more if I could  get    to ports without flying and think  there are others her  like me.  To my mind, air travel has become  intolerable and will not put up with it

 

 

 

 There  was some talk a while back a bout Salem  and/or  Gloucester  ,  Massachusetts   being used as embark  ports.    The region would be delighted

There   has been chit chat  here on CC from time to time for shipssailing  round   trip  gto   Iceland and Greeenland  ,,  Voila..........  'Salem,  Gloucester

 

 

 

 

 

 

sail.noordam@gmail.com

 

 

 

 

Quote

 

 

 

 

Edited March 21, 2020 by sail7seas

[slidergirl]

1 hour ago, sail7seas said:

  A "Cruise   bail out"  is  a restaurant, hotel, taxi, souvenir shop bailout for all embarka tion ports.  Those  cities need heads in hotel beds and persons eating in restaurants, tipping wait  staff, taxi drivers etc   Tour guides, sales taxes  and on   and  on ...

 

 

 

 

A "cruise bail out' isn't a bail out for the hospitality businesses at the ports.  They are already going to be out of business.   New York City, San Francisco, Los Angeles - a cruise bail out isn't going to help them.  The bail out money needs to go directly to those businesses to get back in the game.  A cruise company who doesn't use the US as it's ship flag doesn't deserve any money.  They can go grovel to their flag countries for money.  From someone who needs that $1000 "bail out' money to pay next month's mortgage...

[TAD2005]

A "bailout" is taxpayer money given to a company or industry that has totally screwed up operating their business,  didn't plan properly for the future, but were considered "too big to fail" so they get the bailout.   Their poor business practices caused them to fail, but their failure would hurt the economy  more than the cost of their bailout, so we all hold our nose and bail them out.  This virus is nobody's fault (well maybe if China was a little more open about it, it may not be so widespread),  so funds going to impacted businesses who are in danger of failing through no fault of their own,  would not be considered a bailout.   We spend hundreds of billions of dollars every year on grants to universities to study pet projects of congressional donors.   Why not spend those billions on keeping our economy moving during this temporary shutdown ?

[CruisinAway123]

Booked a cruise for this fall awhile back...no plans to cancel.  Can’t wait to board and enjoy it!  👍