Phases of re-opening American Economy

[SRF]

On 4/17/2020 at 6:20 AM, ONECRUISER said:

Some States will already start at Phase 2, I'd bet by June more then 3/4 be there or better. Agree about Cruise Lines, few smaller will

 

You can't START at Phase 2.  You could start at Phase 1, and then wait to see if there is a rebound.

 

A minimum of 14 days, and more likely 30 days to look for a rebound.

[SRF]

22 hours ago, time4u2go said:

It's more about finding people that test positive, so that they can be isolated.

 

No, the important test will the antibody test to see who has had it, and is now immune.

 

As has been stated, the problem with the test for the virus is, you may be negative today, and positive tomorrow.   Even if you were exposed recently, the virus has not replicated in you enough to show up on the test.

[SRF]

21 hours ago, Lady Hudson said:

 I think it is just that Amazon is overwhelmed with orders not that they are trying to pull a fast one.

 

I have found that most everything has shipped earlier and arrived in a reasonable amount of time, even when the order quotes an extended time to get it.

 

I think they would rather say 3 weeks and get it to you in 1, than to say 1 week and it take 2 weeks.  Setting expectations.

[SRF]

20 hours ago, jp2746 said:

Let's get 170 people to pay 1K each and rent the first one!

 

You forgot the gratuities. 😄

 

 

[StrikeEagle]

I just paid off the balance for the July 17, 2020 cruise on the Enchantment.   I've been crusing for a while.  This is the first time I paid off the balance and not as happy about it like in the past when paying off balance on previous cruises because now knowing that upcoming cruise may or may not happen and if it does what would cruising will be like,  but it will be definately different from the past.   It will be a different kind of "Wow" experience.   🙂

 

 

Edited April 18, 2020 by StrikeEagle

[time4u2go]

54 minutes ago, SRF said:

 

No, the important test will the antibody test to see who has had it, and is now immune.

 

As has been stated, the problem with the test for the virus is, you may be negative today, and positive tomorrow.   Even if you were exposed recently, the virus has not replicated in you enough to show up on the test.

It hasn't been established that people that have had it are immune.

[puppycanducruise]

2 minutes ago, time4u2go said:

It hasn't been established that people that have had it are immune.

I'm not sure that is true.

It was reported from South Korea that some people tested positive, tested negative then tested positive and had symptoms.

We just don't know how this virus acts.

[Milwaukee Eight]

1 hour ago, SRF said:

 

I have found that most everything has shipped earlier and arrived in a reasonable amount of time, even when the order quotes an extended time to get it.

 

I think they would rather say 3 weeks and get it to you in 1, than to say 1 week and it take 2 weeks.  Setting expectations.

I get that but Prime items were generally no later than two days. It’s taking a week or two for Prime items shipped today. Is this an opportunity for Amazon to decrease shipping costs and increase revenue?  We even have Saturday/Sunday delivery by Amazon here. 

[SRF]

1 minute ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

I get that but Prime items were generally no later than two days. It’s taking a week or two for Prime items shipped today. Is this an opportunity for Amazon to decrease shipping costs and increase revenue?  We even have Saturday/Sunday delivery by Amazon here. 

 

I don't think so.  They are probably running reduced staff.  If no other reason than having to give high risk people the ability to not come to work.

 

Plus, higher rate of orders as people are ordering instead of going out.

 

And many things I have ordered have been delivered in a couple of days.  Nothing has been same day, which I could get at times (Amazon warehouse not too far away).

 

Just like Christmas time and FedEx and UPS, things take longer.

[Milwaukee Eight]

5 minutes ago, SRF said:

 

I don't think so.  They are probably running reduced staff.  If no other reason than having to give high risk people the ability to not come to work.

 

Plus, higher rate of orders as people are ordering instead of going out.

 

And many things I have ordered have been delivered in a couple of days.  Nothing has been same day, which I could get at times (Amazon warehouse not too far away).

 

Just like Christmas time and FedEx and UPS, things take longer.

Possible but remains to be seen. We typically get items next day as we too have a Amazon facility close by. Just not happening now. 
 

Here, Amazon is mostly being delivered by Amazon in their new Mercedes Sprinter vans. 

Edited April 18, 2020 by Milwaukee Eight

[time4u2go]

14 minutes ago, puppycanducruise said:

I'm not sure that is true.

It was reported from South Korea that some people tested positive, tested negative then tested positive and had symptoms.

We just don't know how this virus acts.

That's exactly my point. Having had it before it does not guarantee that you cannot get it again.

[puppycanducruise]

15 minutes ago, time4u2go said:

That's exactly my point. Having had it before it does not guarantee that you cannot get it again.

My apologies.  I misread your post. 

I agree with you. 

[bobmacliberty]

2 hours ago, SRF said:

 

You can't START at Phase 2.  You could start at Phase 1, and then wait to see if there is a rebound.

 

A minimum of 14 days, and more likely 30 days to look for a rebound.

 

I think that states COULD start at whatever phase they wanted to, or even make up their own phases.  That could be political suicide though if a state gets more aggressive than the federal guidelines and ends up with a big relapse.

[strathcona]

This is tough leadership decision. The balance between opening up the economy or the new normal and new cases and deaths. The virus still exist, jus that the hospital will have capacity to deal with the new cases unless there is another spike. Older people with existing conditions if they get the virus will still die. 

[bouhunter]

1 hour ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

Is this an opportunity for Amazon to decrease shipping costs and increase revenue?  We even have Saturday/Sunday delivery by Amazon here. 

No, their orders have skyrocketed and they're just trying to keep up.  We've received several orders in 3-4 days this past week.  

[A&L_Ont]

3 hours ago, SRF said:

 

The one in Below Deck Sailing Yacht goes for $200,000 to $250,000 per week. 

 

Plus gratuities.  And the few I have seen seem to give $12,000 - $20,000 gratuity for the week.  But the good news is, the grats are equally shared by all the crew, including the captain. 😄

 

On the show most charters are 3 nights. I would think being filmed would take that price and decrease it, if not eliminate most of it.  Still very, very expensive any way you look at it. 

[Iamcruzin]

2 hours ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

I get that but Prime items were generally no later than two days. It’s taking a week or two for Prime items shipped today. Is this an opportunity for Amazon to decrease shipping costs and increase revenue?  We even have Saturday/Sunday delivery by Amazon here. 

I think they can be overwhelmed. Having been out of work since March and searching for jobs, I keep getting emails for job opportunities from  Amazon, Fedex and UPS for truck drivers for delivery. The only problem is you need a truck driver license. Don't know how that could happen now. I'm guessing it isn't a home school program. At this time you can't even renew the driver's license you already have.

[Milwaukee Eight]

1 minute ago, Iamcruzin said:

I think they can be overwhelmed. Having been out of work since March and searching for jobs, I keep getting emails for job opportunities from  Amazon, Fedex and UPS for truck drivers for delivery. The only problem is you need a truck driver license. Don't know how that could happen now. I'm guessing it isn't a home school program. At this time you can't even renew the driver's license you already have.

CDL but I know what you meant. 

[teacherman]

Each state and city is so different.  I live in the Metro Detroit area.  Our government is getting  a LOT of criticism.  As of today, we have bodies in hospital morgues, refrigerated trucks,  and they are exploring using some ice rinks, if needed.  We are maybe third in the nation for cases and deaths.  We were one of the first to shut down and still we are in this situation.  When the "stay home" was first issued, you could go to groceries, gas stations, pharmacies, and places like Home Depot where you could buy things NECESSARY to repair your homes (plumbing, broken appliances, etc)  Kind of common sense.  BUT people just kind of started going there and walking around looking at things as there was nowhere else to go.  And cases and deaths kept increasing.  So, the governor extended the order to stop the purchase of some items in those stores.  Now, she is severely criticized for trying to slow the infection and death rate.  They say she is power hungry.

 

I do not agree with all of her actions, but it is on her to decide.  We can't plant our flowers, but let's get real - most people here don't plant things until mid-May, and much of these restrictions will end on May1.  We hope.

[jp2746]

On 4/17/2020 at 8:37 AM, firefly333 said:

I don't think there are numbers, it's up to each governor.  Calif says not this year, no one can change it. Doesnt matter how many or few cases. 

 

California is in for a big problem.  People here are done with this and Gavin Newsome.  The bottom line is that they know that the disease is here and will not be going anywhere anytime soon.  BUT, they can not restrict our movement.  As the weather gets better, they will not be able to keep people in their houses and arresting people paddle boarding is ridiculous.  They may be releasing more criminals so that they will have room for all the people walking by the beach.  Social distancing of course, but not inside for the summer.  Nope.  Won't happen.  We all have a brain and we all know the risks of going out of the house.  Everything is a risk.  I put my kids on a zip line in Costa Rica.  There was a risk in that, but we assumed the risk.  Let everyone who is subjected to dying stay inside and let others go about their lives.  Stay away from people at risk.  Yes, people will get sick, people will die.  But, by keeping the people that are likely to get sick and be hospitalized quarantined, they will keep the hospitals in check and maybe create some kind of herd immunity.  If you go out of the house and you are 30, you know the risk.  My son works at a hospital here.  There is NO ONE there.  Nada.  They have laid off nurses and he has had his hours cut to two days a week.  This has to stop.  Oh, and I want to go on a cruise. 🙂 

 

Also, in January and February, everyone here was sick. Toward the middle of February, my son was sick.  He is in college and got very ill with a bad headache and fever.  He was in bed and felt like he couldn't move he was so fatigued.  Everyone in his classes had the same thing.  I remember him telling me how strange it was that everyone he knew was sick.  My other son's baseball coach, who is in his 30's, had a horrible illness where he had fever, fatigue and a bad cough.  So, I honestly feel like this was here for a while before everyone knew about the illness.  Once they start testing for antibodies, we may find that a lot of people have had this in the past.

Edited April 18, 2020 by jp2746

[chipmaster]

58 minutes ago, jp2746 said:

 

California is in for a big problem.  People here are done with this and Gavin Newsome.  The bottom line is that they know that the disease is here and will not be going anywhere anytime soon.  BUT, they can not restrict our movement.  As the weather gets better, they will not be able to keep people in their houses and arresting people paddle boarding is ridiculous.  They may be releasing more criminals so that they will have room for all the people walking by the beach.  Social distancing of course, but not inside for the summer.  Nope.  Won't happen.  We all have a brain and we all know the risks of going out of the house.  Everything is a risk.  I put my kids on a zip line in Costa Rica.  There was a risk in that, but we assumed the risk.  Let everyone who is subjected to dying stay inside and let others go about their lives.  Stay away from people at risk.  Yes, people will get sick, people will die.  But, by keeping the people that are likely to get sick and be hospitalized quarantined, they will keep the hospitals in check and maybe create some kind of herd immunity.  If you go out of the house and you are 30, you know the risk.  My son works at a hospital here.  There is NO ONE there.  Nada.  They have laid off nurses and he has had his hours cut to two days a week.  This has to stop.  Oh, and I want to go on a cruise. 🙂 

 

Also, in January and February, everyone here was sick. Toward the middle of February, my son was sick.  He is in college and got very ill with a bad headache and fever.  He was in bed and felt like he couldn't move he was so fatigued.  Everyone in his classes had the same thing.  I remember him telling me how strange it was that everyone he knew was sick.  My other son's baseball coach, who is in his 30's, had a horrible illness where he had fever, fatigue and a bad cough.  So, I honestly feel like this was here for a while before everyone knew about the illness.  Once they start testing for antibodies, we may find that a lot of people have had this in the past.

 

Ah what would your thoughts be if your son or his friends didn't recover and got intubated and/or worse died, or perhaps needed ICU and it was full and they couldn't get treatment and died, would your view of shelter at home change?   Or what happens if they got it out paddle boarding ? 

 

 

This is the most interesting philosophical, ethical, political, religious, public policy debate, how any incremental deaths is acceptable to begin to relax. Unlike flu, car accidents, obesity, smoking etc. etc we've baked that risk into the general mindset as "acceptable" risk/cost for the convenience and living a "life" This pandemic mixes a lot of things, everyone and group has a opinion.

TO keep things restricted absolutely saves a few more lives while impacting so many more, what is that tradeoff?