Positive Note about Caribbean Islands

[Plum Happy]

There was a news report yesterday that stated that this virus was in Florida longer than what is known.  Early February there was a big uptick in pneuomnia cases there.  There was no covid-19 tests available, so they were marked as pneumonia.

[M&A]

38 minutes ago, orville99 said:

As a Floridian, I would look at where in Florida the hot spots are rather than look at the state as a whole. The vast majority of Florida's 67 counties are virtually virus free. the exceptions seem to be Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach (all cruise port counties), and the Orlando MSA (a major tourist hub)

 

We are in Charlotte county and some beautiful empty beaches here.   Only 9 deaths total and 139 cases, yet like many other counties a high population of seniors.

[John&LaLa]

43 minutes ago, HBE4 said:

 

The theory in NY is that the infection came from Europe. Kind of snuck in the back door while all eyes were on China, Washington state and the Princess cruise ship in SF.  With a large amount of international tourist visiting Florida, I'd be surprised if patient zero didnt come from Europe and not the knucklehead who knowingly flew Jetblue from JFK while infected.

 

 

Where do you rank in testing? You have to look for something to find it 😉

 

NY has 5% of the population, yet accounts for 15-20% of the nations testing. Might be a little less now as other states catch up. On a per captia basis, NY tests more than most countries, including South Korea,  which is the gold standard of testing. 

 

Looked like 3% the other day. We were around 1.5%

 

5% really isnt anything to brag about either

[HBE4]

34 minutes ago, Biker19 said:

S Korea is not even in the top 30

 

 

And yet, every news media outlet cites South Korea as a shining example  'that got it right'

 

Looks like Falkland Islands is the place to be. Should be lovely this time of year.

 

[Biker19]

5 minutes ago, HBE4 said:

And yet, every news media outlet cites South Korea as a shining example  'that got it right'

Well, they did (in terms of keeping numbers low), just not sure testing helped that much. Testing is certainly not helping San Marino keep numbers down.

[HBE4]

20 minutes ago, John&LaLa said:

 

Looked like 3% the other day. We were around 1.5%

 

5% really isnt anything to brag about either

 

Not bragging, just putting numbers into context. 5% of the population accounting for 15-20% of the tests seems pretty aggressive to me. 

 

But its still  nowhere enough.

 

EDIT: just to add, I understand there are a lot of hurdles regarding testing. I'm not implying some states care more or less than others. 

 

I have several land vacations planned this year so I'm keeping my eyes on a few states. 

 

Edited April 20, 2020 by HBE4

[orville99]

1 hour ago, HBE4 said:

 

The theory in NY is that the infection came from Europe. Kind of snuck in the back door while all eyes were on China, Washington state and the Princess cruise ship in SF.  With a large amount of international tourist visiting Florida, I'd be surprised if patient zero didnt come from Europe and not the knucklehead who knowingly flew Jetblue from JFK while infected.

 

 

Where do you rank in testing? You have to look for something to find it 😉

 

NY has 5% of the population, yet accounts for 15-20% of the nations testing. Might be a little less now as other states catch up. On a per captia basis, NY tests more than most countries, including South Korea,  which is the gold standard of testing. 

Latest statistics are one in 83 people in Florida have been tested so far.

[orville99]

1 hour ago, HBE4 said:

 

The theory in NY is that the infection came from Europe. Kind of snuck in the back door while all eyes were on China, Washington state and the Princess cruise ship in SF.  With a large amount of international tourist visiting Florida, I'd be surprised if patient zero didnt come from Europe and not the knucklehead who knowingly flew Jetblue from JFK while infected.

 

 

Where do you rank in testing? You have to look for something to find it 😉

 

NY has 5% of the population, yet accounts for 15-20% of the nations testing. Might be a little less now as other states catch up. On a per captia basis, NY tests more than most countries, including South Korea,  which is the gold standard of testing. 

They also account for 33% of the reported cases. Florida, on the other hand, also has about 5% of the population, but only about 3% of the cases. 

Edited April 20, 2020 by orville99

[HBE4]

47 minutes ago, orville99 said:

They also account for 33% of the reported cases. Florida, on the other hand, also has about 5% of the population, but only about 3% of the cases. 

 

Hence my question about testing. More testing = more cases.

 

Don't get me wrong.  NY is the worst place to be right now.  Even if testing was done at an even rate across the nation, NY would still be the worst by far.  But I think some places in the country that are considered 'safe' or 'low risk' would see a much  higher # of cases. 

 

 

[Pratique]

11 minutes ago, HBE4 said:

 

Hence my question about testing. More testing = more cases.

 

Don't get me wrong.  NY is the worst place to be right now.  Even if testing was done at an even rate across the nation, NY would still be the worst by far.  But I think some places in the country that are considered 'safe' or 'low risk' would see a much  higher # of cases. 

 

 

Agreed it is all about testing. Testing statistics are unreliable for several reasons. 1) Delays in reporting. 2) Private testing not being reported. 3) Number of unique people tested versus repeat tests of the same people. 4) You can test negative today but become infected tomorrow. 5) Lack of available testing especially in rural counties. Until the testing ramps way up, all of these numbers are suspect. Until the reporting becomes more granular and complete, all of these numbers are suspect. The idea that anyone is "doing well" compared to some other place is giving a false sense of security because we don't have complete and accurate data. All of these numbers being tossed about have huge margins of error.

[orville99]

28 minutes ago, HBE4 said:

 

Hence my question about testing. More testing = more cases.

 

Don't get me wrong.  NY is the worst place to be right now.  Even if testing was done at an even rate across the nation, NY would still be the worst by far.  But I think some places in the country that are considered 'safe' or 'low risk' would see a much  higher # of cases. 

 

 

Don’t doubt that, but in areas where there have been hot spot outbreaks, the level of testing will be orders of magnitude higher than in areas where the numbers are low. Have a daughter who lives in the Niagara frontier (Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse region for you non-new yorkers), and the number of cases admitted to hospital is low, so the testing level is also low. Have a son ho lives in the capitol district (Albany/Troy), and their hospital case load is approaching nyc’s, so a lot more testing. Testing follows outbreaks, it does not preceded them, and it cannot predict them. 

[grandgeezer]

1 hour ago, orville99 said:

They also account for 33% of the reported cases. Florida, on the other hand, also has about 5% of the population, but only about 3% of the cases. 

They also have one of the highest rate of seniors. Maybe they shouldn't need a doctor's slip.

[orville99]

13 minutes ago, grandgeezer said:

They also have one of the highest rate of seniors. Maybe they shouldn't need a doctor's slip.

And according to the governor, one of the lowest coved infection rate amongst seniors in the nation and they tested extensively in the villages. Early intervention of an at-risk population was a key factor.

Edited April 20, 2020 by orville99

[HxFx]

23 hours ago, rolloman said:

Really? We have not had high humidity yet.....and most of our cases are traced back to people fleeing infected areas like NY. 

Yes, exactly to both of those. WRT humidity, I’m from Florida and I was back there in mid-March for the last weekend Disney was open. That was not high humidity, especially for an inland area like Orlando. Disney can be suffocating in the summer. It was so beautiful. Even with that, there really hasn’t been any fallout from park visitors that I can find. 

 

I posted much of the following on another thread about a week ago but I think it’s relevant here. As a result of my being at Disney that weekend I was looking out for cases coming out of there. I only found one that even mentioned Disney. Last month a man died that had flown in/out of LAX, gone to a conference in Orlando for a couple of days, spent one day at Disney, and one day at Universal. I think he was in Orlando for about 5 days and by the time he landed in LA he needed to go directly to the emergency room. 

 

It makes me think he had it before he left. If he did get it on the trip, I think the conference was the more likely culprit. There is a lot of gripping and close talking/laughing that goes on at (indoor) conferences. I do think, for the same crowd size/density, being outdoors is a mitigating factor and will be even more so as the humidity and sun elevation gets higher. I haven’t been able to find any additional cases regarding folks that were at Disney. I think the spring breakers that got it had a better chance of contracting it at the bars (or hotel activities) later in the evening. I guess time will tell!

[Sunshine3601]

6 hours ago, Plum Happy said:

There was a news report yesterday that stated that this virus was in Florida longer than what is known.  Early February there was a big uptick in pneuomnia cases there.  There was no covid-19 tests available, so they were marked as pneumonia.

I would believe it.    I cruised for 3 weeks and got off ship early February.   Then stayed a couple days at a hotel on 17th causeway on the waterway.     A couple of days after returning home both my DH and I came down with horrible, nasty colds/flu - I don't know but could have been covid for all I know.   At the time we thought airport/airplane crud as I tend to get a mild whenever I fly in the winter but this was worse than usual cold.   My DH was laid up in bed for a week as he was very weak and achy.   I wasn't as bad as he was but we were both a mess with a lot of the symptoms of covid    We never called a Doctor as we usually don't when sick.     I would love to get the anti-body test to see if we had it.  

[Midwestgal]

So the BVI is going to start letting citizens back into the islands the first week of June and visitors not until the end of September. 
They had closed down and if your a citizen and you weren’t in the BVI you could come home.

Edited April 20, 2020 by Midwestgal

[zekekelso]

There's a huge amount of randomness in how diseases spread. If one state/country is hammered and another has few cases, it may be because of differences between the two countries. Or it may just be dumb luck. 

[ThirstyCruiser]

On 4/19/2020 at 7:05 PM, TravelerThom said:

Much of Africa has always had significantly lower travel (both tourist and business) arrivals compared to most of the rest of the world. 

Also find any list of average or mean age by country. The bottom of the list is primarily African countries. They have a young population. This disease affects younger people less severely than older. Then look at the top of the list, the countries with an older population. Compare to a list countries ranked by COVID19 deaths.

 

Interesting correlation. Doesn't prove causation.

[SRF]

On 4/20/2020 at 2:19 PM, HBE4 said:

 

Hence my question about testing. More testing = more cases.

 

Short answer is yes.  There are a LOT of unreported cases.  You get a bit sick, stay at home, get better.  Once we start wide scale antibody test (test just became available), we will see even higher numbers of confirmed cases.

 

Earlier this week a study was published where they did systematic antibody testing (to see if people had it in the past).  They came up with 48 to 85 times as many unreported cases as reported.  Range is due to errors in the test method.

 

Most of the previous testing was of people who were sick enough to seek medical treatment.  It was used to confirm the diagnosis based on symptoms.  So yes, a lot of people who were tested, came up positive.

[SRF]

On 4/20/2020 at 8:08 PM, zekekelso said:

There's a huge amount of randomness in how diseases spread. If one state/country is hammered and another has few cases, it may be because of differences between the two countries. Or it may just be dumb luck. 

 

Like a report on one news outlet about how states that did not take measures have lower per person rate than states who took precautions.

 

But the states that did not take drastic measures are places like North Dakota, Montana, etc.  Places that have had social distancing for ages. 🙂

 

We are seeing the same thing in Maryland.  The urban counties are being hit hard.  The rural counties are low.  But when your neighbor is miles away.......

[Sea Dog]

On 4/20/2020 at 6:32 PM, Midwestgal said:

visitors not until the end of September. 

Where did you get this information?

[Midwestgal]

3 minutes ago, Sea Dog said:

Where did you get this information?

https://bvinews.com/no-entry-for-locals-until-june-2-access-only-allowed-via-beef-island-airport/

[Sea Dog]

2 minutes ago, Midwestgal said:

https://bvinews.com/no-entry-for-locals-until-june-2-access-only-allowed-via-beef-island-airport/

"For three months after June 2, only BVIslanders and residents will regain access into the territory. But, Premier Andrew Fahie said access will only be granted under strict conditions".

I am not seeing in this article that they are letting tourists in September.

Edited April 23, 2020 by Sea Dog

[Midwestgal]

Just now, Sea Dog said:

Thank you as this could impact our October cruise.

Yep , I was set to go December but either way I’m not going . Decided to stay in the country for a while 

[Sea Dog]

2 minutes ago, Midwestgal said:

Yep , I was set to go December but either way I’m not going . Decided to stay in the country for a while 

I re-edited my original post as now I'm more worried because it does not say anything about visitors being allowed by late September. I know things can change but it looks like they are taking a hard line .