Why I feel August will be the real restart date.

[tonit964]

55 minutes ago, graphicguy said:

Good question.  I guess I look at it like “what happens if I fall down and break a leg on the ship?  What happens if I get Noro while on the ship?  What happens if I get caught in a hurricane while sailing, or having the ship list (both of which have happened when I sailed) etc?”

 

If you are unlucky enough to get infected, where will that happen?  At the gas station while fueling up?  At the grocery store while touching a can good?  From your mechanic who did the oil change in your car?  From the Postman who delivered infected mail? 

 

I guess the odds of contracting COVID 19 are pretty slim (last I looked).  These were the most recent numbers by the CDC.  Extrapolated numbers (which are fairly reliable now that there are enough people tested to have meaningful statistics) .0004 have been infected in the U.S.  Of those, .000059 have died as attributed to influenza, pneumonia and COVID 19.  They don’t break out the mortality rate of those attributed strictly to COVID 19.

 

I think the ships are going to mitigate any transmissions, from observing those who are ill, to taking temps embarking/disembarking the ship, even at every port.  Reducing or eliminating any “self serve” food and drink areas.  Enhancing the already thorough cleaning and disinfection routine of the entire ship.

 

Is it in remission?  Some areas, yes.  Some areas, which were “hot spots”, not as much.  I can actually see cruise companies disallowing people who hail from the “hot sports” to sail.

One thing is for sure, time will tell.

[graphicguy]

19 minutes ago, hftmrock said:

what defines hot spots?

22 states have the virus INCREASING

15 states have it staying the same

15 states and guam have it decreasing.. decreasing states include NY and NJ and Mass which are still considered hot spots

 

so what defines remission? the 15 states where its decreasing? that doesnt sound like a lot

 

(and Florida is staying the same, not decreasing)

I would imagine the cruise lines would define what they consider a hot spot.

[hftmrock]

51 minutes ago, graphicguy said:

I would imagine the cruise lines would define what they consider a hot spot.

true but here is the issue

 

the states that are increasing are obviously hot spots (22 states)

the states that are not decreasing or increasing are not in remission and could be seen as a hot spot (15 states)

the states that are decreasing are places like NY and NJ and those are still looked at as hot spots

 

so where is remission? and how can they sail and say 40+ stated cant board

 

 

[graphicguy]

1 hour ago, hftmrock said:

true but here is the issue

 

the states that are increasing are obviously hot spots (22 states)

the states that are not decreasing or increasing are not in remission and could be seen as a hot spot (15 states)

the states that are decreasing are places like NY and NJ and those are still looked at as hot spots

 

so where is remission? and how can they sail and say 40+ stated cant board

 

 

The cruise lines can say who can or can't board.  It's their prerogative.  Again, what the cruise line considers a hot spot is something you'd have to ask them.  I can't answer for them.

 

I'm guessing but I'd say NY/NJ area won't be launching any cruise ships. I believe I saw where Carnival is sailing from Galveston shortly.  That's just one example.  This is all up to the cruise lines.

 

The numbers show that the percentages of infections are going down.  

 

They will be pre-screening passengers and crew on a stricter basis.  I see them requiring a Dr's note of health.  I believe any sign a passenger or crew is sick, they will be quarantined.

 

Not sure what else I can tell you.  Carnival is at the beginning stages of ramping up.  Royal and NCL will undoubtedly follow suit. 

 

 

[hftmrock]

16 minutes ago, graphicguy said:

 

The numbers show that the percentages of infections are going down.  

 

 

 

 

Take New York out of the equation and the percentages of infections are on the rise.

[Corliss]

Well after watching Carnival cancel most cruises except for short (3-5 day) Bahamas and both Holland and Princess cancel almost everything I was very anxious to hear what NCL was going to do.  And very pleased to see they still intend to resume cruising in the 3rd. quarter.

 

I was also glad that NCL had the opportunity to bring it to the attention of the public how well they did with covid compared to the other cruise lines.  As I have mentioned before I think being on an NCL ship is safer than just being out in public on an every day basis.  Much better screening and sanitation. 

 

Here is the video of Cramer (Mad Money-CNBC) interview: 

 

 https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/05/07/norwegian-cruise-ceo-talks-raising-2-billion-to-dodge-bankruptcy.html

[seaman11]

On 5/6/2020 at 11:21 AM, yankees111 said:

I can’t wait until 30 days from now when you post another link on why cruises will definitely be starting in September!

iv never said definitely yank.   but this feels more real, only 3 us ports and short cruises on the smaller ships as a trial run for a month. 

[hftmrock]

9 minutes ago, seaman11 said:

iv never said definitely yank.   but this feels more real, only 3 us ports and short cruises on the smaller ships as a trial run for a month. 

you might not have said definitely but you jumped at all of the people looking at the CDC report and the environment when we said it wont be open for at least 100+ days. Told us we were doom and gloom because we read the report and felt it was the minimum amount of time before things got started.

I hope things start in August but I am NOT optimistic about this. I feel September might be the earliest. I'm not doom and gloom either. I'm just looking at the environment, know whats needed in order to sail with regards to people, staff, new procedures, ports and countries allowing the cruises and I think it might be further than August

 

but I hope you're right

 

[seaman11]

11 minutes ago, hftmrock said:

you might not have said definitely but you jumped at all of the people looking at the CDC report and the environment when we said it wont be open for at least 100+ days. Told us we were doom and gloom because we read the report and felt it was the minimum amount of time before things got started.

I hope things start in August but I am NOT optimistic about this. I feel September might be the earliest. I'm not doom and gloom either. I'm just looking at the environment, know whats needed in order to sail with regards to people, staff, new procedures, ports and countries allowing the cruises and I think it might be further than August

 

but I hope you're right

 

even though it could have been recended anytime , it wasnt .  to be honest i did get it wrong thinking june /july was a real possibility from the southern ports .  this time there is a real plan , only 3 ports . short cruises limited pax on board .  feel it should go barring a covid setback. 

[logan25]

Additional plans to restart, subject to change.

 

==================

 

The working plan that we have today is in month One ... it would be three Norwegian vessels, one Oceania vessel and one Regent vessel," with the number of ships sailing increasing gradually as momentum builds, he said.

 

As for when that might be, Del Rio said that "reasonable expectations" pointed to late in quarter three (September) or early quarter four (October through December). He said that it would take six months or so to get the entire company fleet back into service.

 

https://www.cruisecritic.com/news/5340/?source=132415&fbclid=IwAR3X_vlqG70KFHUHH-c8di7tN8TBGUTqdBIIWfWT1w55za8_IzsI8b3qWcg

Edited May 8, 2020 by logan25

[seaman11]

2 hours ago, logan25 said:

Additional plans to restart, subject to change.

 

==================

 

The working plan that we have today is in month One ... it would be three Norwegian vessels, one Oceania vessel and one Regent vessel," with the number of ships sailing increasing gradually as momentum builds, he said.

 

As for when that might be, Del Rio said that "reasonable expectations" pointed to late in quarter three (September) or early quarter four (October through December). He said that it would take six months or so to get the entire company fleet back into service.

 

https://www.cruisecritic.com/news/5340/?source=132415&fbclid=IwAR3X_vlqG70KFHUHH-c8di7tN8TBGUTqdBIIWfWT1w55za8_IzsI8b3qWcg

NCL is making me nervous on a restart this summer .  thats y im out till sept.   i feel carnival has the best shot from florida and texas . 

[hamrag]

12 hours ago, seaman11 said:

NCL is making me nervous on a restart this summer .  thats y im out till sept.   i feel carnival has the best shot from florida and texas . 

Many of us have been telling you, for the past few weeks, that it'll be 2021....and most likely not before spring i.e. almost a year from now! Sounds like you're belatedly coming to that realisation.....albeit, one month at a time!

Take care of your health. 

[Charles4515]

Many of us have been telling you, for the past few weeks, that it'll be 2021....and most likely not before spring i.e. almost a year from now! Sounds like you're belatedly coming to that realisation.....albeit, one month at a time!
Take care of your health. 

I think it is possible that cruise lines could manage a few sailings this year because cruise lines seem intent on convincing people to fork over money, they are desperate for all the cash they can get, but all sailings in 2020 should be prohibited. It could spread another wave of the virus.




Sent from my iPhone using Forums

[yankees111]

This Chinese Virus pandemic still has some states on total lockdown. Bottom line-cruises will not be returning anytime soon and certainly not by August no matter what the cruise lines are saying now. Cruise lines are still promoting summer cruises because they want people’s money!

Edited May 9, 2020 by yankees111

[Paul Bogle]

Let's restart cruising from Galveston in the height of hurricane season.

 

What could possibly go wrong?

 

I really do not see that happening. Florida is a different story as ships can sail in several directions. From Galveston ships can only sail around the Gulf or south a full day to have any option of avoiding a storm.

[datolim]

How can cruising start up when CDC has the No Sail order.

When the 100 days expire will this CDC order just disappear. Fool once, fool me twice...…..

CDC order ask for hospital ships, resident ships for quarantine and every ship's clinic renovate to a mini hospital.

So who is smoking what...….

[seaman11]

6 hours ago, hamrag said:

Many of us have been telling you, for the past few weeks, that it'll be 2021....and most likely not before spring i.e. almost a year from now! Sounds like you're belatedly coming to that realisation.....albeit, one month at a time!

Take care of your health. 

Many you have been telling me no cruises till 2021  as if you know for sure, which you dont.  august on carnival looks good at the moment, with a solid plan. 

[seaman11]

3 hours ago, Paul Bogle said:

Let's restart cruising from Galveston in the height of hurricane season.

 

What could possibly go wrong?

 

I really do not see that happening. Florida is a different story as ships can sail in several directions. From Galveston ships can only sail around the Gulf or south a full day to have any option of avoiding a storm.

they sail every year during hurricane season from galveston, i know i was stuck on one during harvey.  which isnt as bad as ppl make it sound, i had an extra 6 night vacation . 

[hamrag]

59 minutes ago, seaman11 said:

Many you have been telling me no cruises till 2021  as if you know for sure, which you dont.  august on carnival looks good at the moment, with a solid plan. 

Absolutely correct, we don't know for sure.....but you forecast April, then May, then June, then July/August, and now it's September!! 🤣

[Paul Bogle]

1 hour ago, seaman11 said:

they sail every year during hurricane season from galveston, i know i was stuck on one during harvey.  which isnt as bad as ppl make it sound, i had an extra 6 night vacation . 

 

You are correct, Carnival has sailed from Galveston every hurricane season for two decades now.

 

What they have never done before is to choose to, after a global pandemic and a corporate financial calamity decide to stick one of the first ships they get ready for passengers in an isolated and hurricane prone port like Galveston.

 

It is for this reason that I suspect Carnival will not sail from Galveston before mid October at the earliest. Which gives you a few weeks lead time to get your "Why I believe October really really will be the restart of cruising" thread going.

Edited May 9, 2020 by Paul Bogle

[seaman11]

32 minutes ago, Paul Bogle said:

 

You are correct, Carnival has sailed from Galveston every hurricane season for two decades now.

 

What they have never done before is to choose to, after a global pandemic and a corporate financial calamity decide to stick one of the first ships they get ready for passengers in an isolated and hurricane prone port like Galveston.

 

It is for this reason that I suspect Carnival will not sail from Galveston before mid October at the earliest. Which gives you a few weeks lead time to get your "Why I believe October really really will be the restart of cruising" thread going.

i know many of you are rooting for them not to sail, for some strange reason,  some just dont want to sail this year and think no one should if they dont.  I can assure you they are worried about covid and not a hurricane that may or may not appear.  There could be a set back of course, but i feel good about august as things in the south are starting to open up now. remember we are talking almost 3 months from now. 

[Roger88]

I think no one should sail this year as well. I care about people and I think no matter what policies will be applied and no matter how many masks and gloves you will wear - you still have a high chance of getting into trouble both due to covid and to cancelation of your cruise... because of Covid. I would recommend everyone staying at home

[Paul Bogle]

7 minutes ago, seaman11 said:

i know many of you are rooting for them not to sail, for some strange reason,  some just dont want to sail this year and think no one should if they dont.  I can assure you they are worried about covid and not a hurricane that may or may not appear.  There could be a set back of course, but i feel good about august as things in the south are starting to open up now. remember we are talking almost 3 months from now. 

 

Since you are quoting me, you must believe I am "I am rooting for them not to sail". This is just the latest in a very long and growing list of things you are wrong about.

[seaman11]

Just now, Paul Bogle said:

 

Since you are quoting me, you must believe I am "I am rooting for them not to sail". This is just the latest in a very long and growing list of things you are wrong about.

was i wrong when i booked carnival for august months ago, before they announced only 3 ports they would sail out of?  Was i wrong that ncl would offer another 125% FCC for the latest canceled cruises.  when many said they would not. 

[Mrdodgy]

Hi 

 

I suspect you are wrong, 

 

Uk - No cruises this  year and quarantine for all arriving for two weeks including brits

Spain and Italy no cruises

 

Therefore no European cruises this summer. And therefore no TA 

 

HAL not cruising this summer and who owns them Carnival so lets see if carnival restarts

 

If you go to other websites I am afraid whilst it is hurting the islands they do not want the ships back at this time.

 

and of course the crew - they are stuck in India Philippines and all over the world with quarantine restrictions.

 

So whilst August (late) is indeed the industry target it is not in my view going to happen - My guess October at the earliest. The reason NCL have ruined their Balance sheet is they know they are cold store for more than just the next 3 months.

 

Time will tell who is correct